The Shire at this time had hardly any ‘government’… There remained, of course, the ancient tradition concerning the high king at Fornost, or Norbury as they called it, away north of the Shire. But there had been no king for nearly a thousand years, and even the ruins of Kings’ Norbury were covered with grass. Yet the Hobbits still said of wild folk and wicked things (such as trolls) that they had not heard of the king. For they attributed to the king of old all their essential laws; and usually they kept the laws of free will, because they were The Rules (as they said), both ancient and just.
This post grew out of my recent sidetrack into barn basketball memories, but it starts with a travel story.
Once upon a time, when my kids were small, we three went traveling. As soon as we were inside the terminal at Logan, one kid toddled one way and the other crawled the other, and there I was in the middle, stuck with the luggage and trying to decide which kid to go after first.
Out of that experience came “The Rules of Travel”:
1. Stick together
2. Keep track of your stuff
3. Be nice
Those rules obviously weren’t ancient, and whether they were just or not, they were at least short, sweet, and in the case of the first two, concrete.
I've been neglecting my posting duties so thought I'd put this up.
Having sh1t for brains for President is turning out to not be a good thing. Whoocoodanode! I especially like all the people abandoning him left and right in the past couple months, as if he's somehow changed from the campaign. "That's not the guy I know/knew!" Clearly you weren't paying attention.
Anyway, looking forward to Nuking NK, letting PR go to sh1t, and some completely effed up tax bill they will try to call "reform" and then not be able to pass.
And, just because: Paul Ryan is dumb as a box of rocks.
Below the fold, a medical story that may be of interest to:
-men of a certain age (over 50) -people interested in national health comparisons -people interested in how Japan may be refracted thru their health care
If you are not interested in hearing details about my health, I encourage you to skip this. Ret's go...
'Is it lack of imagination that makes us come
to imagined places, not just stay at home?
Or could Pascal have been not entirely right
about just sitting quietly in one's room?
Continent, city, country, society:
the choice is never wide and never free.
And here, or there... No. Should we have stayed at home,
wherever that may be? '
I spent a few days in the Eastern Townships of Quebec last month. When I have more time I may write a longer post about that trip, but meanwhile, since we’re in dire need of a new thread and wj has thrown out a challenge, here’s a topic:
Where would you go if you had a year to travel, and sufficient money to make it comfortable for your needs/preferences?
I’d spend a few months in London, with side trips to some of the great English gardens. Timing: spring.
I’d spend a few months in New York.
I’d probably divide the rest between Ireland, which I love beyond reason, and Italy, where half my ancestors came from and where I’ve never visited at all. And may never at this point, realistically speaking.
Sometimes, I come across things that just totally blow my mind. This, from the Wall Street Journal:
The federal flood insurance program has paid more than $1.8 million between 1979 and 2015 to rebuild a single house in Kingwood, Texas. The house has been flooded 22 times since 1979
H/T FiveThirtyEight
The house appears to have any number of up-scale features. Including an indoor swimming pool . . . even when it isn't flooded. This isn't some poor guy who just can't afford to live somewhere else.
I'm not sure who I consider the slowest learner here. The homeowner, who is only now figuring out that he ought to locate elsewhere. Or the Federal Flood Insurance program, which has been willing to keep sinking money into a property which is pretty clearly located on an utterly inappropriate site. (Our Federal tax dollars at work -- since, of course, Texas keeps taxes low and lets the rest of us subsidize them for stuff like this.)
Regular commenter wonkie posted this and I wanted to lift it to the front page. She wrote: My dog rescue book has just become available on Amazon. It’s the story of the rescue of the Olympic Animal Sanctuary dogs—the largest dog rescue to be carried out without support of local authorities. It's is a story of assaults, protests, lawsuits,and small town corruption and abuse of power. I took me two years to write. The text includes the police files released under state law, eye witness accounts, lots of photos, and additional essays by professional dog behaviorists. All proceeds will be donated to the rescues that took in the surviving dogs.
I’d also like to point out that wonkie also published a book of short stories, one of which she shared in a post here. You can get that at this link. (she published it under a different name)
Below the fold, stories about my pets and in the comments, you are encouraged to talk about your pets.
President Trump and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) have agreed to pursue a deal that would permanently remove the requirement that Congress repeatedly raise the debt ceiling.
Getting rid of the debt ceiling seems like an idea whose time is way overdue. Nobody can argue that it has achieved its avowed purpose: forcing Congress to constrain spending. All it really does is provide an occasion for a whole lot of really stupid posturing. So good riddance -- if they manage to actually pull it off.
I confess that I was skeptical at first about just pushing the debt limit issue out 3 months. But if what that does is provide time to ditch it entirely? Hallelujah!
I'm not getting my hopes up on this. Except that I am getting my hopes up.
Should the hurricane make landfall in Florida or elsewhere in the Southeast, it will set a regrettable record — the first-ever back-to-back U.S. landfalls of Category 4 or higher storms.
Hurricane Harvey’s catastrophic impact in Texas and Louisiana now ranks as the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. (Hurricane Katrina cost an estimated $150 billion in 2017 dollars, and the Texas governor’s office estimates Harvey could cost $180 billion.) A recent study examined the possibility of a Category 5 hurricane strike in downtown Miami. It calculated that damages from that nightmare scenario could cost upward of $300 billion.
As improbable as it may seem, two of the worst hurricanes in U.S. history might hit in the span of just two weeks.
Consider this in lieu of any number of sarcastic comments that I could make.
I drove back to NJ from New England on Saturday, and unexpectedly found myself one of the first 100,000 or so people to cross the new Tappan Zee Bridge. Right now, only the westbound lanes are open; eastbound is scheduled to open in June 2018.
My report:
As bridges go, not bad![1] I was already used to the Old TZB, and the new bridge is only a few feet higher. It actually sets off my bridge-fear less: because the grade going up to the main span and then down is much lower, so though you're higher above the water for longer than on the old bridge, it doesn't feel like it. And it's *much* wider and of course in better repair. The Old TZB was so far outside its design specs (in age and load) I was getting really nervous in the last few years.
This is the first Cable-stayed bridge I've crossed. So far I have no complaints: it "feels" sturdy enough, even though I can see a lot of sky.
Going between the pylons on the Mario Cuomo Bridge. Photo by Adam.
Video of a trip over the new span (with dog), by John Gerraughty
Is it worth $4B? I don't see how it could not be: this is an extremely important gateway between New England and the rest of the country, the old bridge was living on borrowed time, and the new one is rated to last 100 years. Frankly, I was impressed at how close to "On Time and On Budget" they've gotten, given that it's such a major construction project (government or otherwise).
There *is* the question of who will pay for it, of course. For now the NY legislature have pledged not to raise tolls until 2020, but there's bound to be an increase then.
As for who *should* pay for the bridge, there's no question in my mind: it should be (mostly) the trucking industry. It won't, of course, but that would be fair.
Most of the vehicles that go over the TZB are cars, of course. But it turns out that the stress a vehicle puts on a road or bridge goes up as the fourth power of its weight per axle.
An example: my 2-axle car weighs about 4000 lbs. Empty, a typical 5-axle tractor-trailer weighs about 33,000 lbs. So the empty truck is about 3.3 times as heavy per axle, and causes almost 120 times the damage.
My toll on the TZB is $4.75[2]. If that truck was paying its way across the TBZ, it should pay a toll of more than $500. But that's only if it's empty! Remember, the burden on the system goes up as the fourth power. If the truck is pretty full, weighing 72,800 lbs, it weighs 6 or 7 times as much per axle as my car -- and does more than 1500 times the damage. A fair toll would be more than $8000.
In actuality, no truck pays more than $50 to go over the TZB, and that's the rush hour price: it drops to under $25 if you cross at night. Other drivers, and the population as a whole, are subsidizing the trucking industry to a truly epic degree. And this occurs while the trucking industry has exploited its workers to the point of indentured servitude -- before they start replacing most of them with robots.
Obviously, if a significant part of the true cost of trucking was borne by the trucking industry, shipping costs would have to skyrocket--and the prices of all kinds of goods to consumers would, as well. How much should we pay directly, per item, how much should be subsidized by car drivers, and how much should just be paid for with general taxes, like an Amazon Prime membership for everyone in the country?
I've seen a fewsuggestions that trucks should pay their fair share of road costs, but none that really faces the scope of the problem. Do other countries have a better solution?
Speaking of infrastructure and what things cost, it seems a pretty safe bet to predict that Harvey will be the most expensive natural disaster in American history (so far). Let's keep our fingers crossed that the loss of life won't make the top 10.
Ways to help:
Consumer Reports has a good overview of where to give, though I would *not* recommend the Red Cross. (Here's one reason why.)
Donate money, not goods! If you can provide in-person help, do it--but coordinate with experts, so your effort goes where it will do the most good
Pace yourselves. It's going to be a long time before we even know the scope of the damage, months to years before the area is back to its new normal -- whatever that is.
Corbett explains that the Houston roads are part of the stormwater system: they are *intended* to flood before houses do, then drain the water into the bayous. This is why there was no evacuation order: tens of thousands of people stuck on highways when they flooded would have been a worst-case scenario.
Fleming (who just finished a PhD on the topic) explains that damage to Houston, especially the ports and petrochemical facilities, is a national security problem. We can expect to see hundreds of petrochemical spills, as well as fires and explosions like the one currently taking place in Crosby, TX. "The flood will be devastating. The toxic spill that follows may never be cleaned up," Fleming says.
The other big point Fleming makes is that the Texas General Land Office (GLO) will have primary responsibility for approving new protective infrastructure around Houston and other cities. This will give great power and a political boost to George P. Bush (Jeb's son), "who a former elected official in the area described as "the biggest political coward in Texas history."" We can expect him to give petrochemical companies and the rich everything they ask for, while approving plans that burden or displace poor Houstonians.
And yes, when this is Houston's third "500 year flood" in a row, one of the causes is human-caused climate change. Damage to petrochemical facilities in the Houston area is likely to raise the price of oil in the short term, but if that accelerates the move to renewables then it may lead to some popping of the carbon bubble on which Houston's economy depends -- or on which it depended last month.
No-one knows more than the Dutch about dealing with flooding, and they are doubtless eager for Texas to ask their advice. I predict that, if they do, Texas will not *take* that advice, because the first part would be "raise taxes on the rich, they can afford it and you're all in this together." Given a choice between "repeated devastation of the Gulf Coast" and "a Good Business Environment™", is there any doubt which one Texas politicians will choose?
[1] I don't think I ever posted about my freak-out heading for the Pulaski Skyway in April 2016, but ... that was a thing, too. I was coming from a memorial service in NYC, out of the Holland Tunnel, and I just ... looked up, and started hyperventilating. The police people were very nice and understanding (I'm a nice, middle-aged mature white lady, it's a perk) and showed me how to get off the damned bridge and go over the flat one instead.
[2] This is for a round trip: tolls on the TZB (and other Hudson River crossings) are only collected going eastbound, toward the Manhattan side of the river.
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