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March 11, 2025

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Wow! That BBC article was really, really fascinating.

One question did occur to me. The article notes that most fatalities occur on "rural roads." I wonder if the means just surface streets and roads in rural areas. Or does it include freeways which happen to be passing thru rural areas at the point of the accident? (Apologies if that was covered in the article and my initial reading missed it.)

In Brandenburg (the region around Berlin) the rural roads are often accompanied by trees at regular and rather short intervalls (Alleen). Long straight stretches alternate with curves. The trees make it difficult to look around the bend while giving the wrong impression that one would be able to see incoming traffic through the intervals. Many speed throught he straight stretches and cut the curves. That can easily lead to head on collisions. Also the the roads are wide enough to make driving fast looking save but narrow enough that errors in judgement quickly end in quick deceleration by means of massive wooden object. Those roads are notorious for accidents involving people not from the area (who do not know where all the bends in the roads are).
Also on rural roads there is less traffic, so drivers can be lulled into a sense of security which will not happen in thick city traffic where most of the driving job is avoiding collisions with all the other idiots to begin with.

wj - I don't think your question was explicitly addressed in the article, but I think the language being used there may address your question implicitly with a little context:

https://highways.dot.gov/safety/local-rural

I think they are mostly looking at roads under local, rather than federal, management.

Increase in pedestrian deaths in the US are likely attributable to (1) more massive vehicles and (2) texting while driving.

I would add
(3) the increasing prevalence of car controls in the form of a touch screen in the middle of the dashboard. That is, at the edge of the driver's reach. As with all touch screens, you have to actually focus your eyes on it, rather than on the environment outside the car, in order to use it.

I think it was mentioned, that the absence of public transport and the suburbanization of poverty has to be added to the mix. Living in Japan, I can't imagine living in a place that doesn't have some public transport infrastructure.

the increasing prevalence of car controls in the form of a touch screen

yes indeed. I'm driving a 13 year old car and am just not interested in anything newer because it's all touch screens.

you *have to take your eyes off the road* to do the most basic things. so foolish.

the absence of public transport and the suburbanization of poverty

I'd say the suburbanization of everything, but yeah. So many places in the US where you can't go anywhere without driving.

and that gets more into the system-level issues.

Not to mention how many of those pedestrians ALSO have their eyes on a screen.

you *have to take your eyes off the road* to do the most basic things. so foolish.

I have a long comment that I hope to add when my weekly babysitting stint is over, but for now I'll just be snarky: what do you need your eyes on the road for if the car drives itself?

Q: Who was able to shove his full self-driving cars onto the public roads with, as far as I ever saw, no public debate or input and apparently no useful regulation? (Musings about my own car's "self-driving" features to follow if I can make time to write them up.)

A: The same [insert string of epithets here] who has usurped Congress's spending powers and is busy taking a chainsaw to the not-so-United States of America.

And the lies and obfuscations abound. I know several Tesla owners who do drive on the "full self-drive" setting, although they aren't the kind of people who would fail to pay attention.

Tesla cars have the highest rate of fatal accidents of any car brand. In spite of being loaded down with safety technology.

Since we are on the subject of systems thinking, it's unclear from the article that russell posted if that study was looking only at fatalities of occupants of the vehicle, or of all people involved in the accident.

I wonder how many of those deaths in the initial article were pedestrians and cyclists struck by vehicles on rural roads? Our roads are poorly designed for pedestrian and cyclist safety.

I drive a 2017 base-model Jetta. The only thing I use the small touch screen for is to skip a song on occasion - and it's my fault for not forcing myself to get used to the button on the steering wheel that does the same thing.

Manual transmission - no special settings. No settings (I know of) for steering or traction control. Two setting for exterior lights - on and off. No zone controls for HVAC. Manual set adjustment. Almost everything is controlled with physical buttons, dials, or levers.

Bells and whistles on cars (or just about anything else) all equate to the same thing to me - variables. The more variables there are, the more states there are, and the more opportunities for problems there are.

I like simplicity.

seat adjustment, not set adjustment

What it comes down to is this. Human beings are inherently analog beings. Some of us can do digital, in certain environments only. But most people cannot -- just getting the right number for the size of a wrench is a struggle for some.

Computers are inherently digital. Expecting human beings to interface with them, without substantial effort to humanize the interface, is asking for trouble. (No matter how modern, forward-looking, etc. the functions are.) And, in my experience, human interfaces are well outside the core competencies of my fellow computer nerds.

And, in my experience, human interfaces are well outside the core competencies of my fellow computer nerds.

Not just outside their core competencies, but outside their notions of what exists or should exist in the world.

But really, I don't blame the computer nerds themselves.... They're not in charge, and they're not the ones who are getting rich off shoddy products. User experience could be prioritized, but hey, that would cost $.

but hey, that would cost $.

And slow down the process of moving fast and breaking things.

OK, I have tried (once here, and once on Force de frappe) to copy something AOC posted 2 hours ago. It's probably gone into spam, but never mind that now.

She says that everybody needs to call their Dem Senator right now, because they are starting to cave. She says to tell them to vote NO on cloture, and No on the Republican spending bill, and not for reconciliation because they don't need Dem votes for that and they know it.

Good luck.

It's the users' fault for not evolving fast enough. How many generations does it take to rewire a human brain, anyway? Like, get on with it!

And, in my experience, human interfaces are well outside the core competencies of my fellow computer nerds.

Indeed. There were excellent reasons my colleagues used to say, "Assign Mike all the tricky little real-time bits. Don't let him anywhere near the code for the user interface."

My Senators are Markey and Warren. Called their Boston and DC offices and left messages (no opportunity to talk to a human), also sent email via their online contact forms.

No on cloture, no on the CR itself.

TPM has them both down as "NO" as of today (at least last time I looked) but I'm sure the encouragement won't hurt.

These are some weird times.

you *have to take your eyes off the road* to do the most basic things. so foolish.

In this day and age, it seems reasonable for there to be a voice pickup mounted in the steering wheel and good spoken command recognition. It would be nice if there were some minimum set of standardized commands. This is easy for me to say. All of the recognition software does well with my voice in academic lecture mode.

If we all took more Vitamin A and a daily shot of cod liver oil, this would not be a problem.

Not enough (D) votes for cloture in the Senate to move ahead with the House CR. (D)'s are asking for a clean 30-day CR (at least cleaner than the "clean" House CR) to allow for continued budget discussion.

The House is no longer in session (I think?) so we may still be looking at a shutdown.

In the meantime, here at chez russell, we're basically not spending any money until all of this noise shakes out. I have no idea where all of this is heading.

Re: voice commands in a car - cars are noisy places, and the driver may not be the only one speaking. On the whole, I'm in favor of buttons and knobs.

If we really, really need to go high tech, we at least need something with really good haptic feedback. But... buttons and knobs already do a really good job of that.

I guess I just don't see the upside.

The House is no longer in session (I think?) so we may still be looking at a shutdown.

Yep...the GOP congresscritters left town.

If there is a problem getting past cloture in the Senate, the Big Orange Turd can just direct the minting of a $10trillion Bitcoin and deposit it in the Treasury.

Problem solved!

In this day and age, it seems reasonable for there to be a voice pickup mounted in the steering wheel and good spoken command recognition.

Good for the eight or so languages that are supported by voice recognition, and for speakers whose accents and pronunciation are close to the trained norms. Otherwise we are all Clint Eastwood trying to think in Russian while stealing a MIG.

My native Punjabi speakers have some notes to give developers about this whole voice recognition experience.

If there is a problem getting past cloture in the Senate, the Big Orange Turd can just direct the minting of a $10 trillion Bitcoin and deposit it in the Treasury.

Given that the GOP seems determined to restructure the government, they need some exemptions from the filibuster. It would not surprise me if, when the GOP Congress critters return, they exempt continuing budget resolutions and pass one with zero Democratic votes.

Computers are inherently digital. Expecting human beings to interface with them, without substantial effort to humanize the interface, is asking for trouble.


https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/05/gibberlink-lets-ai-agents-call-each-other-in-robo-language/

If you can bear it, click on the video that is embedded in the tweet and take a listen. I, for one, welcome our AI overlords.

Years ago, I recall reading about UI issues with nuclear power plant controls.

Accidentally pulling the wrong lever could be far worse than in a car, so it was an interesting use-case.

The point was that the "tap handles" in a bar for dispensing beer, with their varied shapes and sizes, were a good way to easily distinguish them, but the NRC didn't think much of operators attaching those handles to nuclear controls.

Maybe because they didn't like Bud Lite.

The main point: a lot of these problems were solved LONG ago, if only people would pay attention.

Maybe because they didn't like Bud Lite.

Understandable!!

So get handles for Modelo and Dos Equis. Problem solved.

Oh wait....

In German WW2 submarines handwheels for different purposes had different shapes, so, even if the lights went out, there would be no potentially fatal confusion like flooding instead of blowing the ballast tanks.

Teslas, with their touchscreens, make very poor submarines I hear.

Well, they handle the "sinking" part. The rest, not so much.

The nice thing is that if they catch fire, they're already under water. Self-healing.

Nice joke but in reality submariners fear fire even more than people on surface ships do. Several large subs were outright lost or at least totaled through fires breaking out onboard while submerged.

(Long comment, I hope it's at least entertaining. I don't have time to make it shorter.)

Hearkening back to the NYT quote in the OP, it’s either boneheaded or disingenuous to call the increase in pedestrian deaths in the US “an incredible mystery.” russell and wj have both mentioned possible non-mysterious factors, and the comments to lj’s NYT link mention a host of others. Notably:

-- the increasing presence in the US of ridiculously overlarge vehicles (which duh, I’m pretty sure we also don’t see in other industrialized countries)

-- the increasing brightness of headlights, not to mention the obliviousness of so many drivers to the need to dim them when there’s oncoming traffic or when they’re riding your ass in a huge pickup truck trying to make you get out of their way.

Perhaps the statistical picture is murky (and true confessions, I didn’t listen to the YouTube video – even if I could spare the time, I don’t absorb information well that way), but when it comes to possible contributors, there’s an embarrassment of riches.

That’s my direct response to the post and the early comments. But bemusingly, the post is related to a topic I’ve been wanting to write about for months, but can’t find time to condense to a manageable length. One of the illustrative examples would be the “smart” features of the Subaru Forester I bought fourteen months ago after I totaled my eleven-year-old Nissan sedan in a minor fender-bender. (Long story.)

I bought a fancier car than I really wanted because I really wanted the electronic seat controls, and you can’t have those without a lot of other stuff that I didn’t want or need. I struggle with back pain and am uncomfortable in all but about three chairs on the planet, and the fancier controls help me drive longer distances with less discomfort.

But the car has all kinds of “features” that I’ve never had before; I’m still looking things up in the manuals ad hoc. The one that this post brings to mind most vividly is this one, described at a Subaru dealer’s website:

If the driver is not paying attention or is not able to hit the brakes in time, the Subaru will automatically engage the brakes to prevent various types of collisions. In some cases, such as slow drivers merging onto a busy highway, your Subaru can even take control of the steering system to avoid an accident.
(This reads like you’re supposed to say “Oh, ducky!” Right?)

The ten-minute “lesson” they gave me in the allegedly dazzling features of this car the day I bought it didn’t really prepare me for the fact that the default behavior is for the car to take over when it “thinks” there’s going to be a collision. I only found this out when it happened.

A car pulled out from a side road when it shouldn’t have. I slowed down as much as I had to in order to avoid a collision, but my car panicked, put the brakes on, took the steering out of my control, and started to swerve into the left lane.

I can’t remember a more terrifying moment as a driver. I knew what I was doing, I hadn’t misjudged the distance or the speed of the two cars, and there was not going to be a crash unless losing control of my car to some idiot semi-AI caused it. If this incident is typical of the driving skill of all the allegedly smart cars on the road, no wonder road deaths are “mysteriously” increasing.

Luckily, that “feature” can be turned off, and when you turn it off it stays off until you turn it back on again. (Unlike some other features on both counts.) I turned it off so that it won’t brake or swerve on its own, but I left it on a setting that lets it beep if it “thinks” I’m going to hit something.

One day I was heading toward a big, temporary sign positioned directly in front of me—with a bend in the road just next to the sign meaning that I was never in danger of hitting it. My car beeped. If it had been on the other setting, it would have taken over and possibly caused an accident by misreading what was going on.

If the “smart” car can’t tell where the road is going, and/or that the sign is not actually on the road, then it’s too dumb to ever take over the car, and the people who thought it was a good idea to put such a feature on the road, and even tout it as a “safety feature,” should be removed from their jobs and set to scrubbing floors.

Or something.

But they won’t be, because loosely speaking they are the masters of the universe.

Move fast and break things indeed.

P.S. "If the driver is not paying attention" -- reminds me of the point made in the write-up about Vision Zero that the cultural assumption has been that the driver is the culpable one in a car accident. The blurb is framed as if the car can know what the driver is doing. Words fail.

[Edited slightly for clarity.]

the car has all kinds of “features” that I’ve never had before; I’m still looking things up in the manuals ad hoc.

As all of us in the IT world are aware, a feature is a bug for which there is no fix. Certainly seems to describe the last few years' car models.

One common side effect of these collision avoidance features is readily visible in LA traffic. When a car pulls in in front of such a vehicle, it automatically slows down to readjust the distance between it and the car in front - whether or not the car in front is going fast enough to adjust that distance itself in a few seconds. Combine this feature with the passive aggressive lane diving of the impatient and self-important and you end up with one set of cars weaving through traffic at speed while another set of traffic is perpetually slowing down. Car A passes Car B and cuts them off, triggering a slow-down and prompting the driver of Car C to get impatient and also cut off Car B, triggering a slowdown, etc..

And that is the other thing about systems thinking: the designers tend to think about these things centered on the car they are designing and its immediate surroundings, but the feedback loops they introduce have larger ripple effects on the behavior of traffic far outside that immediate context. The density waves in LA traffic that are triggered by a momentary near-miss continue to effect the traffic in that area far after those cars are long gone.

There are two safety feature under discussion that I think would be useful and at least pose no major risk. Both to my knowledge have been tested but are not yet regularly installed.
a) a breathalyzer that will not allow the car to start, if the person in the driver seat is intoxicated [can of course be fooled by the drunk letting a 'clean' person take the test and then switching seats]*
b) a sensor that checks, whether the driver's eyes are open, and sounds an alarm, if the pattern points at him falling asleep. Whether it should also be allowed to bring the car to a controlled halt, if the driver does not react to the alarm, is a less clear-cut question.

At least over here those feature are seen as too intrusive by many. For many Germans their car is what for many USians are their firearms.

*iirc there was a discussion in Germany, whether this should be made mandatory. Nothing came of it. The auto lobby has quite a lot in common with the NRA.

The density waves in LA traffic that are triggered by a momentary near-miss continue to effect the traffic in that area far after those cars are long gone.

Anywhere there's enough congestion. If a car brakes and slows down by a few miles per hour, a human driver behind them will slow down a bit more. This runs backwards in the flow of traffic and somewhere traffic comes to a complete halt. When I was in graduate school almost 50 years ago, one assignment was to write a simulation program and estimate the degree of congestion necessary to cause this.

"And that is the other thing about systems thinking: the designers tend to think about these things centered on the car they are designing and its immediate surroundings, but the feedback loops they introduce have larger ripple effects on the behavior of traffic far outside that immediate context."

I'm forever astonished at drivers who lack the ability to see what's up ahead and plan for it:

The ones who scurry over into an empty freeway lane, not noticing that the reason it's empty is because there's a semi a hundred yards up ahead going at a lordly 40 mph.

The ones who don't see that the lane they're in becomes an entry-merger lane half a mile up, and that's the reason the traffic in it isn't moving.

Plus, of course, the drivers who ignore "lane closed ahead: merge left (or right)" warning signs posted for two miles, and wait until the last possible moment to merge, resulting in yet another blocked lane.

I bet all the system designers nous is referring to are precisely those kinds of drivers: oblivious to their surroundings right up until the last possible moment.

I bet all the system designers nous is referring to are precisely those kinds of drivers: oblivious to their surroundings right up until the last possible moment.

I suspect it's more a matter of writing their software based on an idealized (i.e. hopelessly inaccurate) image of drivers and how they behave.** When reality intrudes, things go sideways.

** And that's before you factor in the very different driving subcultures across the country. Not to mention between countries. Exceptionally rude and obnoxious in one place can be routine in another.

I'm forever astonished at drivers who lack the ability to see what's up ahead and plan for it:

I'm having trouble finding an expression of agreement strong enough for my agreement with this.

What really gets me is that many of these people are in a big hurry, but they don't take advantage of the larger traffic patterns that are plain to see if you simply pay attention and give it just a minimal amount of thought. It's not that hard to figure out, even on a road you're not that familiar with. Most of the same crap happens almost everywhere.

I like to get where I'm going, but I'm not an aggressive driver. What I will cop to being is an opportunistic driver.

Exceptionally rude and obnoxious in one place can be routine in another.

I moved to New Jersey after graduate school. I had been living there for six months when I flew home to see my parents outside Omaha for Christmas. On the interstate I noticed that I was doing "normal" New Jersey things and that those made me by far the most aggressive driver around.

My father was a field auditor and safety engineer for an insurance company whose territory covered chunks of Iowa/Minnesota, then Iowa/Nebraska. He accumulated on the order of 800,000 accident-free miles. While I was learning to drive, he emphasized that driving in congestion was hard for humans to learn because it was a herd activity: to be safe you had to go along with the herd rather than being an individual. Also that insisting on driving 10 mph slower than the herd wanted to go was just as dangerous as insisting on going 10 mph faster.

Michael - many years ago, I traveled with my boyfriend at the time to visit family in South Florida.

South Florida drivers are notorious, and rightly so, for being insane. Part of it is due to there being so many snowbirds-from-elsewhere who ignore local traffic laws. Some is also probably due to the double-cursed climate being both unbearable hot and unbearably humid, which cooks peoples' brains.

My boyfriend, after observing local driving patterns for a while, decided that the local driving motto was "Be Part of the Problem."

I learned to drive in that environment, and it took me many years (and many traffic citations!) to adjust to a less... aggressive driving style.

What really gets me is that many of these people are in a big hurry, but they don't take advantage of the larger traffic patterns that are plain to see if you simply pay attention and give it just a minimal amount of thought.

Driving would be better for everyone if people treated it as a collaborative system/process. Some of the people you and CaseyL are describing are stupid, but I think a lot of them are also greedy. Their principle in driving as in life is IGMFU. (We are seeing the effects of stupid+greedy on a grand scale these days.)

Plus, of course, the drivers who ignore "lane closed ahead: merge left (or right)" warning signs posted for two miles, and wait until the last possible moment to merge, resulting in yet another blocked lane.

I firmly believe that this is *always* done out of greed and not stupidity. I once had the very great pleasure of collaborating with the driver of a semi, late at night on I-95 in Maine, to block these people. (Must have been a Friday given the amount of traffic.)

The truck driver was coming up fairly slowly on my right, in the lane people were supposed to be merging from, and at least a couple of miles back from the point of the lane closure.

I made space for him to merge into my lane, but he stayed in the right lane to block the assholes, and I kept the opening free for him to pull in when we got to the barrier. (I don't remember how we signaled to each other that we were going to do this, but it was very deliberate.)

I suppose a long line of refuse(-to-merge-)niks were behind him, but at least at that point there could be the hope of an alternate merge between the two lanes instead of a string of aggressive drivers speeding ahead to beat as many other drivers as they could, then bullying their way into the through lane.

On the interstate I noticed that I was doing "normal" New Jersey things and that those made me by far the most aggressive driver around.

Well, hmmmm... Maybe I'm not an aggressive driver by New Jersey standards. It's something, right?

JanieM - It's nice to see that a semi can occasionally use its powers for good :)

My experience has mostly been otherwise:

I-5 through Seattle has an Express Lane tunnel that runs south in the morning, north in the afternoon, following commuter patterns. One gets onto the NB Express Lanes via a left exit lane off the main line just south of the downtown area.

Back in the Aughts, when I was commuting from Seattle to Federal Way (about a 40-minute drive in the morning, 90 minutes in evening rush hour), there was a span of a couple weeks where a semi would park itself in the Express Lane exit lane (causing the line of cars to sit unmoving) allowing every other semi on the road to cut in ahead of it onto the Express Lanes. This was of course illegal, but I never saw a State Trooper come anywhere near where it was happening.

Someone somewhere must have made a complaint that stuck, because the trucks eventually stopped doing that.

CaseyL -- my experience with semis is certainly mixed. I've made dozens of trips between Boston/Maine and Ohio since I left home for college in 1968. When my daughter was in college in Pittsburgh, I once went partway on I-80 in Pennsylvania, where the semis would be stacked 8 or 10 in a row. Sometimes they'd be going fairly slowly (for interstate travel), and then the one at the back would decide that he had to go 2 miles an hour faster than the rest, but 10 miles an hour slower than I wanted to go -- and he'd block the passing lane for a good long time. I only took that road once.

On the other hand, being a night person I did a LOT of late late night driving over the years, and I always got a little kick out of the communication with the driver of a semi who passed me. Truck gets far enough ahead to pull over, I give a little flick of my high-beams to tell him it's okay to pull in. The truck driver blinks his lights to thank me.

Just a little human communication in the middle of night, in the middle of nowhere.

I haven't made the Ohio trip since just before covid hit, but what little night driving I've done in Maine recently suggests to me that there's a new generation of truck drivers who never heard of that custom, or don't give a damn about it.

I once went partway on I-80 in Pennsylvania, where the semis would be stacked 8 or 10 in a row. Sometimes they'd be going fairly slowly (for interstate travel), and then the one at the back would decide that he had to go 2 miles an hour faster than the rest, but 10 miles an hour slower than I wanted to go -- and he'd block the passing lane for a good long time.

I've experienced this many times during trips to Ohio, and you described it almost exactly as I do when I complain about it.

I can take the PA turnpike (I-76) across PA, but the tolls end to end add up to roughly $50, so I sometimes opt to suffer on I-80. Only sometimes.

When I was traveling to various parts of the country for business a lot, my standard for the locals' driving was "How often do they completely surprise me?" I was living in Colorado at the time, so that was my base. My experience was that California drivers were the most predictable. Boston drivers were the most inconsistent.

I once went partway on I-80 in Pennsylvania, where the semis would be stacked 8 or 10 in a row.

Semis on I-80 make it a badly designed railroad from coast to coast.

Boston drivers ... they have their own circle in hell.

They are forced to share it with Boston bicyclists, who can claim to possess the most sanctimony per capita of any human grouping.

;-)

When my wife and I were planning a trip to Italy a fre years back, I was curious to know exactly how bad the infamously crazy drivers there would be.

One guidebook said "about like driving in Boston".

We are the international standard for crap driving!

We are the international standard for crap driving!

Riyadh and Shanghai accept your challenge. Bring it!

Riyadh is going to be hard to beat. I mean, little things like lane markings aren't merely suggestions. They apparently are purely decorative.

Other traffic signs seem to be there merely because Europeans and Americans have them. Not because they are something anyone would pay the least attention to.

Worst are diplomats, in particular but not exclusively from the Persian Gulf region.
The police can't touch them and they know it. If someone gets run over, the culprit will simply be sent home before the police complaint has even reached a level where measures could be taken.
In Berlin there seems almost to be an unofficial competition which embassy gets most citations for traffic violations.

Riyadh and Shanghai accept your challenge. Bring it!

Haven't been to either, but I'd be astounded if anywhere could begin to rival Hanoi.

Buffy Sainte Marie: Hey, Baby I just got back from town
Where the bribes are paid
Honey, they turned my offer down
They say the deal's already made
So now I gotta stand and watch
While it all comes down
And the buzzards and the hawks
And the judges and the mob
Circle round
Now if I were the queen of all the world
I would go in chains just to see you free
Of the ropes that bind you
And the role you play
And the pride that hooks you
While the big ones get away
Love junkies wanna change the world:
It quickly stays the same
Money junkies hire all the smart ones
Power junkies run the game
One step at a time
Polarity Hill
If the bad guys don't get you, baby
Then the good guys will
With angels on the take
And the gangsters in the yard
Hey don't the wars come easy
Hey don't the peace come hard
Now if I had a way to reach the sky
I'd grab that crescent moon
Wield it like a knife
Save you from the lies
From the ropes that bind you
And the role you play
And the game that hooks you
While the big ones get away

Yeah, I know, Buffy, but I believe she thought she was native and adopted. After all, no one from her school days--teachers, admin, counselors, students--ever spoke up and her mother went with her on her tours.

I was startled by the cynicism since her songs, while angry, are usually inspirational. This one suits my mood: cynical and angry due to believing, against all history and odds, that we humans should be better than we are and should create better systems than we do.

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