Landslide

by wj

JanieM gave us a great upbeat musical post.  But we have this election tomorrow, and I expect that everybody is going to feel compelled to talk about it.  Wednesday, if not before.  So, to keep from polluting her thread, here’s an Open Thread for you.

Just to kick it off, here’s a chance to read my prediction.  It should leave everybody lots of room to tell me what a cockeyed optimist I am, and how detached from reality.  Feel free.  (If you want to play along, I did this with https://www.270towin.com/)

Long story short, I’m thinking Harris: 421, Trump: 100. (Toss-up: 17)  Not really close, hence the title.

How do I get there?  Well let’s start with the obvious:

• Trump gets Idaho, West Virginia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Indiana, the Dakotas, and probably Kentucky (the fact that it has a Democratic governor notwithstanding).  Also 1 EV each from Congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska. (Could be 2 EVs there.  I'm a bit vague on the details.)  Call it 94 EVs total. 

 

• Harris gets the Pacific Coast (Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii).  Also New England, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia.  Plus the upper Midwest (Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan).  Also Colorado and New Mexico.  Oh yes, and DC.  Call it 251 EVs.

Next tier for Trump is a special case:

• Utah. It has been solid red for a long time.  On the other hand, the Mormons are very clear that the evangelicals, and other Christian nationalist types, don’t consider them real Christians.  If anything, as heretics, they are worse that Jews, Muslims, Hindus and other heathens.  This could be their opportunity to drive a stake thru the political heart of the Christian fundamentalists.  It they do, and Utah goes for Harris, it will be a major shock; but not really a big surprise.  (Not sure that makes sense, but…) Another 6 EVs for Trump . . . just don’t bet the ranch on it.

For Harris, the next tier is

• Arizona They now no longer have RWNJs in charge of the state government.  In fact, the AG has been telling county election officials, some of whom have been making noises about mucking with the results, that the law says they shall certify the results.  And there will be legal repercussions if they don't follow the law. 
• Pennsylvania Trump's Madison Square Garden rally calling Puerto Rico an island of garbage didn’t go down well with the Puerto Ricans diaspora.  That includes a couple hundred thousand in Pennsylvania.  And Harris was already looking likely to win it.
• North Carolina It's been trending blue.  And they have an exceptional horrible Republican candidate for governor, which definitely doesn't helping Trump there.  Also Dobbs.  
• Then there’s Iowa.  While it went for Trump twice, before that it went for Obama twice.  So, perhaps not as red as its current reputation.  And there was a new Seltzer poll (she’s one of the best and does Iowa exclusively) which showed that Iowa has moved from Trump +7 in the spring to Harris +3 now.  Why?  Farmers follow the prices of agricultural commodities pretty closely (obsessively closely might not be far wrong).  They know that exports are a huge part of their market (did you know that most of the soy beans consumed in China are from the US?)  Big tariff trade wars, like Trump has been promising, could trash those exports.  It’s one thing to mutter about the people who vote against their economic interests (as we see them).  But voting for personal financial ruin is a whole different deal.  Plus, of course, Dobbs.  Nebraska and Kansas have the same agricultural economies. 
• Finally, Georgia.  Kemp, et al. have formally endorsed Trump.  But if he loses, absolutely no tears will be shed there.  Granted, they’ve done a lot of voter suppression for their own reasons.  But if Harris wins, as Biden did, there will be no patience for overturning it.  

So another 79 EVs for Harris.

Finally, various levels of weak Harris. 

• Nevada suffers from the country's highest turnover of people moving in and out, which makes things fuzzy.  However, the unions are big in Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno), which between them are the overwhelming majority of the state, and they are pushing Harris.  So maybe by a whisker, but yeah. 
• Alaska has long been solidly Republican territory.  But when a MAGAt primaried Murkowski, she ran as an independent and won.  And now their Congresswoman is a Democrat.  So the reflex of just going for anybody with an R after their name is in tatters at best.  Add in Dobbs, and another whisker win.
• Montana seems very red, until you realize that Walz’ “Mind your own damn business” really resonates with people there.  Senator Tester is pulling his usual home stretch surge, aided by the fact that his opponent is basically a carpetbagger and committing gaffes left and right.  That may provide some upward coattails.  Also, Montana has traditionally made it very difficult for Native Americans to register, and when registered to vote.  But this year there has been a big registration push.  And, as of last week, the 6 biggest reservations were reporting upwards of 80% of registered voters had already cast their ballots.  It only 10,000-15,000 votes total, but Montana’s population is small enough that that can be a game changer.  Plus Dobbs (is that getting repetitious?)
• Florida has an abortion measure on the ballot, which has been shown (remember Kansas a couple of years ago?) to really boost turnout, especially for demographics which lean Democratic but usually don’t manage to get themselves to the polls.  Not to mention all the ladies who are old enough to remember what it was like pre-Roe and do not want to go back.  I think that tips the state for Harris (and probably takes down Senator Scott, too).
• Missouri is another state with abortion on the ballot.  Normally, it is a couple of blue splotches (St Louis and Kansas City) on the edges and dark red in between.  But I suspect that this time it flips.  (If Senator Hawley goes down with the ship, that’s a plus.)
• Texas has been described as a bluish purple state where the Democrats just don’t turn out.  It also has among the most draconian abortion laws in the country.  It’s big enough that there has been a steady stream of stories about women dying in the hospital parking lot (or even inside the hospital) because doctors were afraid to treat them.  I figure that puts it over the line.  And, incidentally, takes out Senator Cruz.

In total, another 93 EVs probably for Harris.

Which leaves only Ohio.  On one hand, the Republicans who run the state government and most of the counties seem quite willing to put their thumbs on the scale as necessary.  On the other hand Senator Brown keeps getting reelected (and I expect will again this year).  Plus the unions are making a big push, buoyed by the manufacturing booming thanks to Biden's CHIPs Act, etc.  Add in Dobbs and . . . I have no clue.

So, there you have it.  I will doubtless be wrong on some of these.  Possibly quite a few of them.  But even if so, the balance looks pretty damn overwhelming to me. 

Just to round things out, for the Senate the Democrats lose a seat in West Virginia, but pick up one each in Florida, Texas, and maybe Missouri.  Meanwhile the Republicans also lose one in Nebraska to an Independent.  With Tester and Brown holding their seats, that gives the Democrats a net plus of one or two seats. 

Let the flaying commence!  

Comments

[CharlesWT]

My prediction is that two-thirds to three-quarters of the country is going to be pissed no matter who is elected. The ones whose guy didn't get elected plus the ones who are going to be pissed regardless of who's elected.

[russell]

I have no idea who's going to win, or by how much.

A strong Harris victory would be good (from my POV), and is probably more likely than a strong Trump victory. But Trump could win, nonetheless.

My best scientific wild-@ss guess is that it's gonna be close. Probably the popular vote, even more probably the electoral vote.

But really I have no idea. Almost anything could happen.

And whoever wins, the Trump shit-show is bound to continue. Either as non-stop lawfare and random absurd acts of pointless violence if Harris wins, or general chaos-as-governance and punishing-of-the-enemies if Trump wins.

So from my point of view, tomorrow is just the beginning of (minimally) months of crazy bullshit.

At some point we'll end up with a POTUS and a Congress. And we'll go on from there, somehow or other.

[russell]

In the meantime, let's all pour one out for Peanut, the OnlyFans porn squirrel, done in by the fell hand of a nefarious bureaucratic state gone out of bounds.

This is the quality of our civic discourse right now.

So it's true, I have no idea where all of this is gonna land. My imagination has been outstripped by reality.

[Snarki, child of Loki]

This is the level of Harris landslide that I'm hoping for:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adm9247

We'll see!

[wj]

On one hand, a win by one EV is as good as a landslide, because it's still a win. On the other, a narrow victory means messing with just one or two states can be enough to change the result, whereas with a huge win, there are too many places that need to be messed with.

Not to mention the difference a big win can make in the too often overlooked down-ballot races.

[Ufficio]

I wouldn't bet a cent on this election, but if forced to predict I'd say Harris holds the Biden states minus Arizona, and the Senate lands at 50-50 with Tester barely holding on.

[GftNC]

I've had occasional brief intimations of a strong Harris win, but have been much too scared to put any faith in them. If it did happen strongly enough, I suppose it would make it harder for the MAGAts to claim foul. Wouldn't it??

But nothing would surprise me, including a clear Trump win, and that''s what I'm trying to expect in order not to be too deeply upset or depressed when/if it happens.

Meanwhile, various pieces about the Elon Musk funded ground game have been comforting:

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:p5yoii26kayabauhkym3vtms/bafkreidcgnt7gqjnlspoka5ixa4ttpkvebtqggdf6qsgryeobv6ueuwqza@jpeg

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/musks-vapor-ware-ground-operation

[nous]

If I had to put a hopeful best guess on the result for the presidential election, I'd say Harris with 319 EV (WI, MI, PA, AZ, NV, NC, GA). Of those, I think that NC and GA are the iffiest. Stretchiest of goals would be 355 with wins in IA, and FL.

And if King Lear Jet wins PA, Harris needs to sneak a win in either GA or NC to make up for that.

As to the actual outcome, I'll only say that I'd rather have Harris's hand than Lear's hand to play, but I'm not going to breathe easy until the votes are in because there's too much uncertainty to put weight on any of this.

Harris has done all that she can. Now it's all on the rest of us to come through and to stand up to the inevitable pushback from the desperate and the damned.

[GftNC]

What nous said in his final para. And also, what russell said upthread. Clearly, even if she wins America will still be dealing with the aftershocks, and with what enabled the Trump/MAGA phenomenon, which as we know did not start with Trump. And who knows how effective a POTUS she would be.

But she sure as hell wouldn't put an anti-vaxxer in charge of health, ban fluoride in the water, further enable a corrupt and internationally discredited SCOTUS, or say "how high?" when Putin says "jump".

[wj]

Meanwhile, various pieces about the Elon Musk funded supposed ground game have been comforting

Fixed that for you. :-)

It is amazing how the scams and grift ripple outwards. All the way to the supposed ground game, which looks remarkably soviet: "They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work."

It really says something when someone takes the trouble to write an app which will spoof a phone's GPS to make it appear that the canvassers have gone places that they have not. Just so they can get paid (if they do) for work not done.

[wj]

And if King Lear Jet wins PA, Harris needs to sneak a win in either GA or NC to make up for that.

As to the actual outcome, I'll only say that I'd rather have Harris's hand than Lear's hand to play

The thing is, Harris has multiple plausible paths to victory. Whereas Trump only has a couple of paths, pretty much all of which require him winning both Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

[russell]

I wish that I could be as optimistic as you all, but there is one thing that continues to concern me.

Basically, it's the "normie guy" support for Trump.

Not the MAGA crowd or the crypto-Nazis (and not-so-crypto). Not the Proud Boys or the 3 percenters or the Steve Bannon will to power types. They're all disturbing each in their own special ways, but I don't think there's enough there to change the outcome.

It's the middle class suburban guys who remember the Trump years as being just fine, except perhaps for that virus thing, which could have happened under anyone's watch, right? They were doing pretty well, and now look at how much gas (or whatever) costs. Interest rates, too, they were so low then!

And Trump's a business man, he understands money.

Just normie suburban dads out mowing their lawn. Sure, Trump's kind of an asshole and he should really stop saying whatever god-awful thing pops into his head. But he's not really gonna do all of that stuff, and my 401k was doing great back in 2017.

The Trump years were profoundly chaotic, but not for everyone. For a lot of folks, things were just fine (until that unfortunate virus thing). And now gas (and other stuff) costs more.

So they're gonna vote for Trump.

It's not a particularly penetrating analysis, but it's not uncommon. There are a surprising number of Trump lawn signs in my very very blue suburban Massachusetts neighborhood.

[GftNC]

Understood, russell. And I veer between that kind of thinking (probably most of the time) and somewhat reduced levels of wj-type optimism (ruthlessly stamped out when they occur).

I feel like we may all age a few years in the next several hours.

[Ufficio]

For that reason, I do wish the campaign's messaging had more of a focus on just how awful things were in Trump's last year in office, as opposed to the abstract threat to democracy.

[CharlesWT]

I live in Plano north of Dallas. I do long walks and have walked past hundreds of houses in recent months. I've seen a couple of Harris signs and no Trump sighs.

[wj]

For a lot of folks, things were just fine (until that unfortunate virus thing).

For a lot of people, especially middle class people, the government really doesn't impinge on their lives. That they realize/notice. The only thing they are conscious of is the annual filing of their income taxes.

Of course, a lot of other stuff happens to and around them. But, unless they are active politically (say for a particular cause), and mostly they aren't, they simply don't notice. They'd notice, big-time, if it stopped getting done -- the sort of stuff Project 2025 dreams about doing.

Consider the successful campaign for governor in Michigan to "Fix the damn roads!" Because the state had stopped doing enough maintenance. Or the reaction to Dobbs. But generally? No.

That's why "vibes" are a factor, even a big factor. They simply don't realize that policy and such are important. Part of why I think Harris wins is that she's new and her campaign is upbeat. Whereas Trump's act is old and stale. And whiney. They were undecided intil the last week or so because they saw no reason to pay attention (other than tuning out all the flood of political commercials); vibes don't take that long to pick up on.

Now that they have taken a look, they see Harris as the "change candidate" exactly because they never noticed her before. (As opposed to 2016, when Trump was new and Clinton was old news.) They're breaking towards someone who is new and interesting, and Trump ain't.

[novakant]

Let's not forget the Senate and House elections.

Can someone tell me quickly what president Harris can and cannot do if she faces a Republican or a split Congress? Thanks

[wj]

A Republican majority in both houses is unlikely in any case, simply because I can't see the Republicans holding on to the House. So a split would mean a Republican majority in the Senate.

Probably cabinet appointments would go thru. At least mostly. But judges might be another story.

Budgets would get done. Perhaps less stuff than she'd like to do. But still, some new stuff. Especially where things are very popular; Senators generally are less lockstep with the ideologues than House members.

[Michael Cain]

Can someone tell me quickly what president Harris can and cannot do if she faces a Republican or a split Congress?

Don't forget the Supreme Court. Under current case law, the executive branch can make large decisions by issuing rules and regulations under authority Congress previously granted to departments and agencies. The SCOTUS appears to be poised to fairly drastically curtail the regulatory state.

[hairshirthedonist]

It's an odd couple - the unitary executive and regulatory curtailment. I suppose it's a matter of allowing the president to destroy the administrative state but not to use the administrative state (too much).

[nous]

so far today I have received one email from a student thanking me for prodding them all to vote, and saying that she cast her first vote this morning.

I work hard not to abuse my power as a teacher and a rhetor and become partisan, but given the prominence of climate change in the readings, I feel i can say that they should vote with an eye on their long term health of our environment , and not just for their immediate economic worries. Hope, not fear.

Hoping she’s not the only one who has taken up my admonition and used her voice to advocate for the next generation.

[wj]

Not too early to start developing the voting habit.

[Ugh]

If Trump wins there will be pogroms against Latino/a communities across the country. There will be armed bands of civilians roving the U.S. Mexico border "apprehending" by any means necessary - including the use of lethal force - anyone trying to cross the border while the CBP looks the other way, if not actively assisting.

Any protests against this or other forms of violent suppression will themselves be violently suppressed.

It will be horrific.

[nous]

And if we win, we get to keep NATO and stay in the Paris Accords, and continue to take action against climate change.

And women just might have a chance to get back their bodily autonomy.

Just a few little things.

[GftNC]

nous, well done on your outreach. Joining you in your hope for its success...

[novakant]

I'm not sure about climate change, but I'm hoping that reproductive rights will do the trick.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/

[nous]

I am reassured that the local ABC affiliate has a helicopter parked over campus taking pictures of the seriously long voting line at the student center. That's a good sign.

Also glad that it isn't because the Proud Boys had shown up on campus. That is a real worry. So many white power pendejos in the local area.

[wj]

I'm not sure about climate change, but I'm hoping that reproductive rights will do the trick.

Climate change will directly impact more of the electorate. That is, anybody and everybody who doesn't die soon will find it increasingly difficult not to notice it. But the causes and required actions are diffuse.

On the other, reproductive rights are up close and very personal for at least half of the electorate. The actions which made it problematic are clear, simple, and obvious (Dobbs). The steps to reverse the problem are clear and simple, too: throw the rascals out. And it really looks like they will do just that.

[Ugh]

I've got a bad feeling about this...

[russell]

Wherever it ends up, it ain't gonna be a (D) landslide.

[GftNC]

Yup, me too. And my phone buddies.

[GftNC]

Oh God. I'm going to bed.

[CharlesWT]

2024 US elections - Presidential results

[russell]

I've been watching the AP page (here) and in the past hour or so several states have gone back and forth beween "leads (R)" and "leads (D)".

It's maddening, so I'm gonna just go read a book for a while.

Wherever this lands, I have to say I'm profoundly disappointed in this country. The fact that something like half the country is willing to vote for an obvious charlatan like DJT astounds me.

For reasons both practical and personal I have no intention of moving anywhere else, but it's really hard for me to feel like I belong here.

[novakant]

NBC and CNN are calling Pennsylvania - so I guess this is it.

I was thinking last night: oh no, it's going to be "it's the economy, stupid". Maybe also a bit of racism and misogyny. There's something seriously wrong with this country, a pervasive carelessness and ignorance.

It will be awful and the consequences for the whole world are going to be grave. God help us.

[novakant]

AP also called Pennsylvania.

[Ugh]

Fuck

[hairshirthedonist]

Yeah. I woke up and decided to see what was happening. I don't know how my wife is going to take this when she finds out. My kids, too.

Please at least let the Democrats take the House. Otherwise, I can't imagine what that thing is going to do.

[novakant]

This is what he might do:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/nov/03/if-trump-wins-the-election-these-11-issues-will-be-under-threat

[Donald]

We have been like this for as long as I have been alive. Look at all the things voters say when interviewed. There is an authentic part where they talk about their own lives and then out come the cliches about strength and leadership when talking about their reasons for voting for candidate X. Many people are not serious. Some are too overworked with stress- filled lives to learn anything about the issues but many are just not serious, like someone I know who only watches Fox News. His choice. He wants to be told pleasing lies. Some liberals are like this too, though not usually as extreme.

And our politicians tend to be hypocrites and often enough mediocrities. We are a huge country. There ought to be plenty of people with real integrity and ability willing to run and yet we get a herd of jackasses for the most part. Both parties, though in my opinion, as most here will agree, the Republicans are consistently worse. And I have several local politicians in mind.

Trump is just the natural endpoint. If hypocrisy is the norm and truth doesn’t really matter and cruel policies are typical, isn’t it refreshing to have someone who is authentically and openly despicable, who doesn’t conceal his inner emptiness, a pathetic needy grotesque narcissistic bully who projects strength with his sadism?

[liberal japonicus]

A Landscape of a Vomiting Multitude by Federico Garcia Lorca

[novakant]

Donald, I've heard this argument before: "they're all bastards, but at least he's doesn't hide the fact that he's a bastard".

I would bring up the old saying "hypocrisy is the tribute that vice pays to virtue" and point out that I would rather hold on to the idea of "virtue" and tolerate some level of hypocrisy inherent in politics, than discard it entirely in the name of "honesty".

[russell]

isn’t it refreshing to have someone who is authentically and openly despicable

No

[Hartmut]

Dies irae dies ista
civitas facta fascista
fata dicta sunt sinistra/fat'_electa persinistra

Quando cimex est venturus
cuncta saevus vexaturus
marsupia exsanguiturus

Mos stupebit et natura
cum resurget creatura
cunnos procax prehensura

Day of ire, effing day
The state turned fascist
sinister fates have been announced/very sinister fates have been chosen

What a tic/bug is coming
to torment/plague everyone
to suck the purses dry

Morality and nature will be stupefied
when the creature re-emerges
randily to grab the p---ies

[hairshirthedonist]

I hope Harris says something in her concession speech about losing a free, fair election and that there were no rigged machines, was no significant voter fraud, and that there's no reason to believe that anyone involved threw out legitimate ballots or supplied phony ones.

I hope she says that, as a mature and rational person, she has no choice but to accept the outcome and that she will not challenge the results in any of the states she lost.

I doubt it will matter much, but I think it's the sort of thing that needs to be said right now. Let it stand as an example.

[Pete]

Let it stand as an example.

You sweet summer child. As if there are going to be more elections.

[Hartmut]

The cries of 'rigged' will come from the GOP no matter what the final result is.

[hairshirthedonist]

As if there are going to be more elections.

I was texting a friend this morning in commiseration. I said something along the lines of expecting a backlash in the midterms with the caveat that it was predicated on our system of government not having been dismantled to the point that control of congress could not change - not something that is guaranteed.

[russell]

As if there are going to be more elections.

Elections or no, an example of decency would be welcome. My expectation is that Harris will act as hairshirt has described.

FWIW, just made a donation to New England Independence. I don't really care if it's impractical or unrealistic. Everything is unrealistic, until it's not.

I've had enough. If this is where the nation is headed, I'm seriously interested in making a break. I can't think of what I have in common, politically or socially, with the half of the nation that thinks Trump is a good idea.

[Pete]

I dunno, man. Trump will have the White House and a MAGA House & Senate. And an “Official Acts” decision by SCOTUS. I’m not saying anything we all don’t know. But barring some paradoxical reject-democracy-to-save-democracy official act by a lame-duck Biden administration that has already announced it would not abuse that power, the game is over. The guardrails are gone.

[russell]

The guardrails are gone.

Quite. Especially if the (R)'s hold the House, which is possible.

We'll be getting the unfiltered, full-strength MAGA shit storm.

The stock market and the Bitcoin crowd are more than happy about it.

[Hartmut]

I have my doubts about the stock market. Those guys are greedy but not THAT stupid. I predict a short high and then a drop when those in the know will get rid of the volatiles and out of Dodge before the whole artifice collapses. The dirtiest fossil fuel companies will be happy and go rampant but I doubt there is more than a sugar high to get there. The barons will look for a bag holder soon.

[hairshirthedonist]

I'm selling off a portion of my stock-based holdings at the end of the day today. Nothing near all of them, but some profit taking and risk reduction that's perfectly warranted for someone getting closer to retirement under these circumstances.

[Hartmut]

If you don't suffer from conscience you could invest in small arms and companies that produce military grade stuff for police forces. And try to find out which companies will profit from the internment camp and deportation schemes. That will make a killing (just metaphorically at the beginning but that could change).

Btw, does Project 2025 say anything about using illegals as slave workers before getting rid of them one way or the other?

[wj]

Just for the record, yeah I'm clearly an idiot. I honestly had thought better of my fellow citizens. Sigh.

[hairshirthedonist]

Sure, but you're OUR idiot, wj! ;^)

[wj]

Please at least let the Democrats take the House. Otherwise, I can't imagine what that thing is going to do.

For myself, I hope so, too.

Although for the country's. Long-term health, letting the crazies run wild for a couple of years mught concentrate some minds.

[Hartmut]

Although for the country's. Long-term health, letting the crazies run wild for a couple of years mught concentrate some minds.

Unfortunately, that can take very long and cost millions of lives with no guarantee of success.

[Hartmut]

Oh, and the usual suspects already claim what they always claim:
"The Dems have to move to the center now because it was their radical leftist policies out of touch with the mainstream voter that doomed them. Why do they never learn??? And why can't they stop playing identity politics and being so rude all the time???"

Facial necrotizing fasciitis on them all!!! And that before the daily dipping in butyl mercaptan.

[GftNC]

What everybody said, particularly russell and hsh.
What a fucking world - and the whole world will suffer.
If I could sponsor/vouch for any of you who wanted to move to the UK, I would, but I don't think it works that way.
It is inexpressibly terrible, I am so sorry. For all of us.

[nous]

I'm walking into my class today and telling the college students there to look to the things within their reach to do that make a difference, and do them. Care for each other. Build coalitions. Practice solidarity. Organize on the local level. Connect on the regional level. Flow around obstacles that are put in place by a hostile government. Engage with those in government who will listen to do what you can to steer the results to better, or to less bad.

Celebrate any accomplishment, no matter how small, that adds to or protects the collective good.

And keep showing up.

[Michael Cain]

FWIW, just made a donation to New England Independence. I don't really care if it's impractical or unrealistic. Everything is unrealistic, until it's not.

A dozen years ago, when I began writing occasional short bits about a partition of the US, everybody laughed. It was a hypothetical question: are there conditions under which a partition of the US could work, and is it feasible to achieve those conditions?

I didn't get to spend as much time with the idea as I planned. (Providing care for a spouse developing dementia will do that.) The big question is not whether New England states can jointly decide that they want to be independent, but whether they can convince enough of the other states that those states will be better off w/o New England.

[russell]

Just for the record, yeah I'm clearly an idiot.

No, you're not. You just thought people would be better than this, which is a laudable instinct.

look to the things within their reach to do that make a difference, and do them

We're two years away from the next round of mid-terms. Time to think about how to take back Congress. Both houses.

The big question is not whether New England states can jointly decide that they want to be independent, but whether they can convince enough of the other states that those states will be better off w/o New England.

My guess is that it would not be a very hard sell. My general impression is that most of the rest of the country either hates us, or doesn't really think about us at all.

It might be harder to get the New England states to decide they want to be a political unit. The southwestern part of Connecticut are Yankees fans, for god's sake, and everybody hates Massachusetts. :)

If New England were a country of its own, it would be about in the middle of the pack as far as size, in the top 20 as far as total GDP, and in the top 10 as far as GDP per capita. We don't have a very long growing season, but in spite of that (and unlike most of the rest of the country) the number of farms has increased in recent years. Most of them are small in scale, most them aren't making a ton of money. But, they grow food.

So, not infeasible. Just really, really problematic from a practical point of view.

It's not anything I expect to happen in my lifetime, if ever. But I'm disturbed by the direction this country is taking. I feel like we are embracing the very worst in ourselves and in our history.

And have been, for some time now.

And I don't want to be part of it.

[russell]

I have my doubts about the stock market. Those guys are greedy but not THAT stupid.

Don't forget, you're talking about a community that gave us the 2008 global economic meltdown. Because some quant told them about a magic formula that would make all the risk go away.

Money at that kind of scale makes people stupid.

[Hartmut]

Hey, THEY profitted from the meltdown. Some of those corrupt and reckless banks came out bigger and richer than before, even more 'too big to fail'.

[nous]

Here's the thing about the stock market: what traders consider rational choice, anyone with an ounce of ethics would call moral hazard. The market will likely correct and drop, but the serious stock gamblers will have only risked a part of their portfolio on those things, and they will be able to ride out the volatility and scoop up the losses from anyone who does not have that sort of safety margin in their personal economics.

It's basically how we got our current housing market and our housing affordability crisis.

That behavior won't self correct. Disaster capitalism, and disaster nationalism are the plan.

[bob sykes]

What a stunningly stupid and delusional post, and what stunningly idiotic, psychopathological comments.

[GftNC]

She gave a good speech. And a lot in common with nous @01.17.

Sigh.

(Who is this bob sykes, and what the hell is he talking about? If about wj's opening post, and our comments, what a perfect illustration of what is likely to be the the modus of a whole, ruling section of US public discourse.)

[Tony P.]

wj: Just for the record, yeah I'm clearly an idiot.

russell: No, you're not. You just thought people would be better than this, which is a laudable instinct.

Laudable or not, it was certainly optimistic. I repeat my favorite dictum: The optimist thinks we live in the best possible world; the pessimist fears that may be true.

"The American People" evidently includes a majority coalition composed of MAGAts and morons. The MAGAts know what they voted for; the morons don't. The morons think the MAGAts are on their side, which is what makes them morons.

I could be wrong, of course: the morons may end up happy with what the MAGAts will do to them. Sheep enjoy being fleeced, I understand.

So what are sane Americans to do? Will it do any good to say "I told you so" when He, Trump's plutocrat pals screw them? I doubt it, but I want the Democrats to try, at least.

"We have more that unites us than divides us" is a phrase I never want to hear again. Harris just said it in her concession speech, which may explain why she lost. Morons will never buy into that until they and we are united by misery under MAGAt rule. And I'm being optimistic here.

--TP

[Nigel]

The only real question is whether he's serious about deporting 10m plus people.
Pretty well all of the rest of the shit is going to happen. And it's going to be bad for you, and for the rest of us out there.
But that one will truly undo US society.

[Hartmut]

And we know who will get blamed for that (successfully).

[russell]

"We have more that unites us than divides us" is a phrase I never want to hear again.

I'm with you on this.

Harris just said it in her concession speech, which may explain why she lost.

My guess is that she meant well, and wishes it were so.

Who is this bob sykes

He pops up now and then, and always brings insights comparable in quality to what he's offered here.

[Donald]

I was, I thought, being rather obviously sarcastic with my refreshing comment, but let me be blunt.

I despise Trump and hate the fact that we have this cretin in our face for four more years. I have no idea just how far he will be able to go. He wants to be a fascist. We are going to find out if he can succeed in achieving his goal. If you think I am happy about that, no, I am not.

I am also sick of voting for genocidal war criminals as the lesser evil. The Trump supporters are not the only thing wrong with this trash pile of a sick political culture, not by a long shot. Yeah, genocide is our lesser evil. Now maybe Trump willl encourage Bibi to commit an even greater genocide, but Biden set the stage. We will never know if Harris would have gone a different route but she gave no hint that she would.

So no, I wasn’t saying it was truly good to have an openly evil man in the WH. I am saying that Biden himself is a war criminal and people who pretend otherwise are not as far from the Trumpers as they might like to think. This is America. We support mass murder and we pretend the arrogant old man doing it is doing his best to stop it when he clearly, obviously is doing nothing of the sort.

Is this why Harris lost? No, but it contributed. Also, it is irrelevant. Maybe support for genocide pulled in more votes than it lost. It was still wrong. It is wrong to give weapons to a country that will use them to commit war crimes on a massive scale and we knew that was happening in literally the first week. Everything after that was criminal on Biden’s part.

[russell]

I was, I thought, being rather obviously sarcastic with my refreshing comment

No worries, Donald, I understood that. If anything, I was just setting a marker for myself - a kind of guardrail to keep myself from indulging too much in cynicism. I find it all to easy to do that when things look inescapably crappy.

I am under no illusion that you find the re-ascendance of Trump to be refreshing.

[Donald]

One more thing. I kept seeing people say things like “ don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good”. This typically comes from liberals. It makes sense saying that if we are talking about supporting the AcA when one would prefer a public option.

But people would say this about Gaza and supporting Biden or then Harris. It’s like they couldn’t wrap their heads around children blown apart or permanently mutiliated as a result of US- supplied bombs.

This is the kind of p9litical culture we have. It is like living in a country of freaking lunatics and these are liberals in NYT comment threads, not Trumpers defending their votes.

We can do better than this. It is simply impossible for me to believe that our choice had to be between genocidal war criminals and fascist genocidal war criminals.

[novakant]

The truth is probably more prosaic than one might think:

What just happened? It was the economy, stupid.

The trouble is, whatever the reasons for his election, Trump now has pretty much carte blanche.

[bobbyp]

We got our butts kicked, and the majority of the votes did not go our way (aided by the 10 million+ 2020 dem voters who simply did not show up). Let's hope they will get what they asked for....good and hard.

Such is democracy. Rest up. Recharge. We'll be back.

[wj]

For anyone wishing to do better next time, the relevant question might be: What makes great (meaning successful) "reality television"? Since that's apparently what is wanted in politicians at the national level.

At least for the moment; depending on how bad things get, interest in actual governance may return. The experience of Kansas under Brownback may be relevant there.

[hairshirthedonist]

My hope is that, now that The Husk has his Get Out of Jail Free card, he'll be a bit lazy and not want too many people pissed at him come midterms or at the end of his lame duck presidency. I don't suggest there's any chance that he'll be remotely good, just that his badness might fall short of what I'm expecting.

[GftNC]

This, recommended to me by a lefty-ish friend, is worth a read I think, for anybody who has the stomach for such things today. Published on Tuesday long before any results were released:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/05/left-right-trump-harris-prisoners-political-nostalgia-extremism

[JanieM]

@hairshirt: I'm expecting that it's not going to matter much what Clickbait wants policy-wise, if he is even un-addled enough to have preferences.

Either it's going to be back to the Middle Ages (or worse*) for the rest of us based on Project 2025 (or as near to it as they can get), or his entourage of malevolent fascist s***heads is going to turn inward and tear itself apart before it gets around to tearing the rest of us apart. I'd bet on the former, but I'll hope for the latter, and expect a somewhat mixed bag, at least for a while.

Also, I don't believe Clickbait is really in charge except maybe when he has a tantrum about something and no one wants to defy him. I'm expecting President Vance not too far down the road. One way or another.

It boggles the mind, remembering the concern in the US in 1960 that if Kennedy became president, the pope would be running the country. (I was a ten-year-old Catholic living in a bubble and not understanding what the big deal was; Catholics were just normal people, right?)

Now we have a posse of radical right-wing Catholics who have left the pope in the dust in their zeal to force the rest of us to live by their life-denying rules, all under the label "pro-life." "The Words of this wizard stand on their heads."

*or worse: at least worse than pre-Roe. Pre-Roe we didn't have car dealers and other local hotshots (i.e. state legislators) writing the rules doctors have to follow.... or period trackers or blah blah. I feel like...oh never mind.

[russell]

The truth is probably more prosaic than one might think:

What just happened? It was the economy, stupid.

I think this is pretty much accurate.

On paper, the economy is remarkably good. In fact, Trump is going to inherit a very robust economy, and will no doubt take credit for it.

But, in a nutshell, things cost more now - significantly more - than they did four years ago. People understand that.

I'm the kind of nerd who reads Locke's Second Treatise and The Wealth Of Nations out of general interest. My vote is influenced by the degree to which a candidate understands and respects the tradition of lower-case "l" liberalism that is the basis of our political system.

That's pretty unusual. Most folks relate to public policy, and therefore vote, based on their daily lives.

Can I buy a house? Can I afford a new car? Can I save money? Can my kids go to college? These are actually important issues. The Biden administration has actually done a remarkable job, especially in the area of job creation, but some things - interest rates, inflation - have hit a lot of folks hard. And Biden et al have not done a good job of explaining why they chose the policies they did, and how - in what ways - those policies have been beneficial.

My own understanding of all of this is basically that the (D)'s have lost the working class. I pretty much lay this at the feet of Clinton, but Obama was not very different in that regard. Biden, paradoxically, has probably been the strongest labor POTUS since Roosevelt, but the specific policy choices he made have (I think) privileged job creation and full employment over managing inflation. A reasonable choice, but one which has now come back to bite the (D)'s on the butt.

The (D)'s have lost the working class, and have for the last generation or two focused way too much on the liberal urban folks who respond to fund raising appeals. People like me, for example.

And the (R)'s stepped in, courting working folks with toxic xenophobic nationalist crap that nonetheless resonates with a lot of people.

It's always "the economy, stupid", but not as viewed by academic economists and think tanks. It's "the economy, stupid" as viewed by working people.

Consumer goods, in the aggregate, cost about 20% more now than they did in 2020. Some specific but important things - housing especially - are simply out of reach for a lot of people. That's a very tangible reality.

The first question in the Trump / Harris debate was "are you better off now than you were 4 years ago". That was an opportunity for Harris to make the case for the Biden-era policies. Instead, she took the opportunity to push Trump's buttons. In saying this, I'm not laying the blame for Trump's win on Harris - I think she ran an extraordinarily good campaign. It's just an example of how IMO the (D)'s have lost their focus on working people.

I have no idea how Trump v. 2.0 is going to play out. What I really, really, really hope is that all the talk about deportations and tariffs will turn out to be just that - talk - and that the basic pragmatic reality of how difficult and/or stupid those policies would actually be will actuall sink in and he'll pivot, if only for his own sense of self-preservation. I'd say the odds of it working out that way are, at very best, even. Trump's base will be clamoring for it, and Trump will have no problem making millions of people's lives a living hell if he thinks it's in his interest to do so.

But this cycle saw a remarkable swing to the right, not just in red states or swing states, but even here in true-blue New England. And my own thought about this is that it's mostly down to the (D)'s losing their focus on the tangible daily reality of working people's lives.

Why do groceries cost so much now? Why are interest rates so much higher than they were? There are good reasons for these things - the economic effects of the pandemic, the need to balance economic stimulation and job creation against inflation - but they (D)'s haven't really done a good job of explaining them to folks. And beginning at least with Clinton, (D) policies have often privileged the interests of capital over working folks.

So the door was open for the kind of toxic populism that Trump is peddling.

That's my take on it. FWIW.

[wj]

The truth is probably more prosaic than one might think:

What just happened? It was the economy, stupid.

Sure, for some people it was. Just as, for some people, it was permission to hate. But neither group was the difference in this election compared to previous ones.

No, what made the difference was who would provide more entertainment. In 2020, they wanted real problems fixed, so Trump was out. But now? Pandemic is behind us (at least in the popular view), so back to the entertainment!

Think of it like horror films. Nobody would want to actually live in one. But they enjoy watching them, knowing they can always change the channel, or just turn off the TV, if it gets to be too much. Better yet, think about all the folks who love watching Survivor. Same deal.

That this fun show they have chosen to watch could have a real world impact on them? Never occurs to them. (See all the Hispanic men who voted for Trump. His increase in that demographic, when all the others stayed basically the same, was why 2024 came out different from 2020.) The FO is going to be an even nastier shock that it was for the Jan 6 criminals. And with no chance of a pardon.

[someone]

What you just said, wj, is what I just said to a friend: "No, what made the difference was who would provide more entertainment."

Still crying.

[Hartmut]

And - as was to be expected - we have lots of sore winners claiming that the Dems cheated and that millions of illegals voted but it simply wasn't enough to overcome the overwhelming support for His Orangeness. Some are even soaring to new heights claiming that those illegals voted FOR His Orangeness because they knew that HE was the better choice (and this makes it OK, I assume). And naturally Putin wanted Harris to win too since he has as of yet not congratulated His Orangeness.

There is obviously no class warfare since one side simply hasn't any.

[Ufficio]

I would dispute that Biden privileged employment at the expense of inflation, and say that he addressed the problem that he had the tools to deal with. I suppose that the case could be made for Powell, but we did about as well or better than all of our peer countries on inflation. Cranking interest rates earlier wouldn't have done anything to unkink supply chains, and probably would have led to an even worse election outcome in the end.

I would also dispute that Dems have lost the working class. Exit polls, for whatever they're worth, show Harris got just under half of votes from households with $50k or below family income.

I'm not sure what conclusion to draw from the fact that it appears Dems won 4 Senate races in states that Harris lost, but it does seem remarkable to me.

[JanieM]

Ufficio -- a BJ morning thread included this interesting chart.

I believe someone in the comments to that thread said that the trend seemed to apply mostly or only to the top of the ticket in a lot of places.

Stuff's complicated.....

[Donald]

Russell--Okay.

I am hoping Democrats learn something from this debacle and not "we have to shift further to the right." I would settle for a bit more honesty and decency on foreign policy and some realism about how ordinary people see the economy. Having Krugman write columns explaining how great everything really is didn't do the trick. I initially bought into that myself since I am not struggling. Shouldn't have.

Lots of lefties want what you would expect--a revival of the Sanders movement. I want that too (I don't mean Sanders himself--too old.) But I would settle for realism and honesty and introspection about what just happened.

[nous]

The Dems need a labor movement, and they need to forge alliances between unions and the social justice wings of the big organized religious groups to build a ground game and mutual support.

And they need to do the bulk of it F2F with minimal social media.

Beyond this, I am entirely uninterested in the blame game. It just leads to another round of playing catch-up and massaging outdated messaging.

Organize, find a course of action, take it.

[bobbyp]

And beginning at least with Clinton, (D) policies have often privileged the interests of capital over working folks.

And they stare at the polls in disbelief when they see they are "losing" the working class. But that rot preceded Clinton. Remember the "atari democrats"? Good times.

Still trying to get through this essay, but offer it up anyway...food for thought.

https://www.left-notes.com/p/why-kamala-harris-wont-rebrand-as

Have a good day. It's OK

[Priest]

Not trying to suggest that constructive reflection on paths to take in the future (for those that remember the 70s, I don't think handing out thousands of WIN buttons would have helped a candidate anymore now than it did then), but:

The combined margin in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are currently less than 250,000 votes, which is slightly less than Biden's combined margin in 2020. Clinton's combined margin was less than 70,000 in 2016. In all three elections a shift to the opposing candidate wins the election (with the caveat that if Harris was currently clinging to slim margins in those states there would be lawsuits filling the courts and Stop The Steal protestors in the streets).

That said, Trump appears likely to have the national popular vote victory, first time in 20 years for a Republican. Harris is winning NJ and NY with margins of 5% and 12%, respectively, rather than the 16% and 23% from four years ago. So trends against Democrats across the board; I will leave it as a thought experiment as to what would be happening right now if Harris was looking to eek out an EV win while losing the national popular vote.

[Priest]

Where's the damn edit button:

"Not trying to suggest that constructive reflection on paths to take in the future is a good thing to do"