Turmoil

by JanieM

Still traveling, very aware of my luck in only having to read the headlines, not live them. 

Open thread.

*****

The Presumpscot River, downtown Westbrook, Maine, after yet another winter storm. Bigger version here.

Comments

[Michael Cain]

Temperature is supposed to hit 80 today for the first time this year. NWS says snow up in the mountains on Thursday, can't make up its mind about whether it will be cold enough down here on the flat for it to be snow, or just rain. Snow pack up in the mountains that drain into the Colorado River currently ranges from a few to many percentage points above the median for the date.

[nous]

We’re getting another day with rain in OC. Been riding the e-mtb, but have mostly been stuck on the paved trails as the trail authority has closed the local unpaved trails for maintenance all but two days since I got the bike. Lots of small washouts.

[wj]

Temperature here bouncing around. To put it mildly. Thursday, we topped 90. Yesterday, high in the low 50s. And rain.

40 point change in 2 days. Do we even have a climate these days?

[Michael Cain]

Wimp. Here, 50 °F difference in high temps 48 hours apart is not common, but not all that unusual either. Personally, I'm glad I don't have to do the weather forecasting for Front Range Colorado. I recall one morning when the NWS forecast discussion from the local office -- forecasters, especially the night shift, can be odd -- said, "I'm pretty much guessing here."

We moved here 36 years ago. After six months I knew, that no matter what my ancestry was, my DNA said 5,000 ft elevation and semi-arid is where I was meant to live.

I'm collecting research questions faster than I have any chance of answering them before I die. I want to do an AI model that generates a weather forecast for where I am, based on basic (temp, wind speed, etc) measurements for 500 miles around, but has no explicit physics package.

[wj]

I came across a fascinating article

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/08/steven-levitt-and-john-donohue-defend-a-finding-made-famous-by-freakonomics

Basically, Steven Levitt and John Donohue wrote a paper, back around the turn of the century, linking the legalisation of abortion to the enormous decline in American crime since the 1990. I.e. since those born since Roe v Wade hit the 15-25 age group. It did not, to be kind, find immediate acceptance.

Now, they have gone back and looked at how well the predictions they made then have held up. (Not all that common in economics, unfortunately.) Turns out: pretty well.

The implications for the states busily turning back the clock are not pretty. One can only hope they don't export too much of their problem to the rest of us.

[Michael Cain]

Has anyone seen Civil War? Thoughts?

[nous]

Civil War is on my list to see, but no opportunity yet. I'm curious, and it's really dead center of my research interests from grad school.

I've glanced at a few reviews and it seems like a lot of the reviewers are reviewing their own preconceptions more than they are engaging with the film itself, which usually either means that the film is smarter than the average film reviewer, or that the film is grasping at more than it can hold onto. Won't know which until I get to see it.