This is Sparta!!

by liberal japonicus

Yes, I know that the Battle of Marathon was the Athenians versus the Persians, but it is hard not to hear that phrase in my mind when I read this article from A. Wess Mitchell, "a principal at The Marathon Initiative and a former assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia during the Trump administration". A quick jump to the Marathon Initiative, their webpage has a 4 photo slideshow which are

1. The 1814 Congress of Vienna
2. Teddy Roosevelt posing with Russian and Japanese negotiators
3. The 1943 Casablanca conference with Churchill, FDR, De Gaulle and Henri Giraud where Roosevelt unveiled the requirement of 'unconditional surrender' by the Axis
4. and 1957 Paris summit of the heads of state of NATO

Ahh, the good ole days...

While one might ponder why anyone who worked in the Trump Administration might be worthy of paying attention to, an amuse-bouche from the piece:

The United States is a heartbeat away from a world war that it could lose. There are serious conflicts requiring U.S. attention in two of the world’s three most strategically important regions. Should China decide to launch an attack on Taiwan, the situation could quickly escalate into a global war on three fronts, directly or indirectly involving the United States. The hour is late, and while there are options for improving the U.S. position, they all require serious effort and inevitable trade-offs. It’s time to move with real urgency to mobilize the United States, its defenses, and its allies for what could become the world crisis of our time.

Did I say amuse-bouche? Not sure what the French is for 'making one throw up a little in the back of their throat'. I left the link in, which is to a WSJ op-ed which riffs off of Jack Nicolson's line in 'A Few Good Men'. Not the one that was Jack Nicolson's threat against Tom Cruise when he gets arrested, but it might was well be. A couple other gems:

As Russia mobilizes for a long war in Ukraine and a new front opens in the Levant, the temptation will grow for a rapidly arming China to make a move on Taiwan. Already, Beijing is testing Washington in East Asia, knowing full well that the United States would struggle to deal with a third geopolitical crisis. If war does come, the United States would find some very important factors suddenly working against it.

"The Levant" is a keeper. Someone must have played too many games of Risk as a teen. Again, I leave the links in for folks to click, but the first one is to the Moscow Times, which has this:

The record defense spending shows that the Kremlin has no intention of ending its war against Ukraine anytime soon: on the contrary. Even if the fighting becomes less intense or the conflict becomes frozen, the money will go toward replenishing Russia’s depleted military arsenals. Likewise, it has enough cash to fund an escalation such as the imposition of martial law or full mobilization.

Yes, I, like everyone else of my ilk, thought that Russia was just going to toss in the towel and turn all their munitions into plowshares.

This is not to claim that there is nothing to worry about with Taiwan, but tying it into some sort of three front conflict is not going to help keep things tamped down. But hey, defending Western Civilization from the barbarians doesn't need nuance. Anyway, a thread for musings about global stuff.

 

 

 

Comments

[wj]

I can see where Russia would like to have those supporting Ukraine, especially the US, distracted by other parts of the globe. Not least because Russia, for all its history of outlasting opponents, doesn't have the resources to do that unless it can shut down Ukrainian's allies. (And maybe not even then, given the endemic corruption inherent in being a kleptocracy.) The current loss ratios are just not sustainable, even with Russia's larger population.

China would certainly like to take over Taiwan. Their preferred approach is to get the Taiwanese to go for a "one country, two systems" deal. Having seen how that worked for Hong Kong, the Taiwanese aren't buying, but hope springs eternal.

The alternative would be to invade. But Beijing has been watching the war in Ukraine. It knows that, whereas Ukraine had minimal defenses in place, Taiwan has been preparing for decades. And the PLA last saw combat decades ago, in Vietnam -- which they lost. So, not an attractive option.

As for "the Levant", for all the nastiness around Israel at the moment, this isn't really the kind of existential threat to the US that raises serious concerns. Suppose (as looks seriously unlikely) the fighting grew to involve other countries in the region. Suppose further that Iran and Saudi Arabia could bring themselves to cooperate and coordinate -- not the smart money bet. Israel remains the regional military superpower, with nukes of its own to back it up, if necessary. The impact to oil supplies would hit some of our allies hard. But the direct impact on the US just wouldn't be that enormous. And even the indirect effects would be manageable.

In short, I'm only seeing two possible justifications for his position. 1) Arms manufacturers in the US would like their business to pick up and stay large in the long term. 2) Russia would like the US to decide that it would rather abandon Ukraine than expand munitions manufacturing. No idea where the Marathon Initiative's funding comes from. But it would be worth knowing before putting too much credence in his concerns.

[nous]

The way that the conflict is imagined really underscores the US-centric nature of the worldview in the piece. I'm certain that we do have the potential for three concurrent conflicts challenging US government interests, and especially US logistics. It's fairly clear, however, that the US has less weight on its European foot at the moment than on its South Pacific foot. Were we to see a Chinese push to reclaim Taiwan, I think we'd also see the US stepping back in Ukraine and letting other allies in NATO take on a larger role. We've seen this trend happening already. So EU allies taking the lead on Ukraine, the US, UK, and Australia working to keep Taiwan independent, and Israel continuing to get monetary and material support from allies, but managing its own sovereignty - for better or worse - just as it has been doing.

And I'd expect things to trend these directions even without China deciding to risk action to make good on its territorial ambitions.

[nous]

And while lj is thinking Battle of Marathon, I've just ordered a copy of Tolkien's Battle of Maldon book, and have the germ of a research project there.

Hwaet!

[Michael Cain]

The Amazon rain forest is experiencing a severe drought. Some of the rivers there have reached the lowest level on record. This past week, parts of Brazil had temperatures in the upper 50s °C (mid-to-upper 130s °F). And it's still only late spring.

[Michael Cain]

Follow up... The Brazilian temperatures are heat index, not air temperature.

[bobbyp]

Follow up... The Brazilian temperatures are heat index, not air temperature.

whew. For a bit there Michael, you had me worried.

As for Mr. Mitchell, I play Risk thus.

[Donald]

What’s the wet bulb temperature? I gather that’s the best one for figuring out the effects on people.

[CaseyL]

Michael - My suspicion is that the wreckers are actively working towards rendering vast swaths of the planet uninhabitable, and killing off as many species as they can, as quickly as possible, so they can then say "Well, the damage is done. Too bad, so sad, but now there's no reason not to keep using fossil fuels, right?"

[liberal japonicus]

As for Mr. Mitchell, I play Risk thus.

Don't want to insult Risk players, it is a fun game, but when you start thinking the map is the territory, you are going to run into some problems.

[Michael Cain]

Yes, wet bulb globe temperature is the best for determining how much heat a human can dissipate. OTOH, measuring it is trickier. Three thermometers: one dry, one wet, one inside a black globe. The last one measures the effects of radiant heat and wind. Wet bulb globe temperature is a weighted average of the three temperatures. The National Weather Service does provide a forecast of estimated WBGT here, but considers it experimental.

People still publish new models for estimating WBGT from commonly available weather measurements.

[bobbyp]

A remarkable resignation letter.

[CharlesWT]

So, The New York Times is now without rhyme or reason.