Picking up and going

by liberal japonicus

In the enshitification thread, the notion popped up (and it's popped up several times at the blog) about the idea of moving to some red state en masse to change the politics. I've kind of lost track of who said what, but this guardian article points to the issues with that.

Under censorship laws, we could both be arrested for felonies, and once you have a felony [on your record] you can’t vote any more. Why is the response always, you guys can just move?” Both Mitchell and her daughter are living with disabilities, and Mitchell says the family would struggle in any state with a higher cost of living than Indiana. “We do not have a big savings account, and it’s not like we’re 20 and we can just grab a duffle and go where we want to. We’ve been married for more than 25 years and we have a family. We can’t just pick up and hope it works out.”

“Finding jobs, setting up a social network, kids in schools, parents in care … economically and socially, moving states is not something you do on a whim,” says McCranie.

As a person who is wondering how he ended up where he did, the idea of moving to support a political ideal seems particularly fraught. Anyway, something to discuss.

Comments

[wj]

the idea of moving to support a political ideal seems particularly fraught.

As one of the folks who raised the idea, let me say that I quite agree. Very, very few people could or would consider it, even for an instant. For all the reasons you cite and more.

That said, for the red states we're talking about, it wouldn't take a mass migration. That, after all, is the point. Plus, we're not talking about equalling the total current population of the state. More like a third.
Which, combined with those already there (albeit in a currently powerless minority), gets us to parity.

And likely even less than that would be needed. As we saw a couple decades ago with gays, demonization can drop dramatically when people discover that The Other are people they already know. To become even a moderate Democrat in Wyoming today requires a willingness to be (very) different from your friends, neighbors, coworkers, etc. But if there are people around you, that you know and get along with fine, who are there already? Then you might consider the possibility on its merits.

Just to be clear, I don't think it will happen. I'm not even sure it's feasible. But it's a lot more feasible than it's usually made out to be.

[nous]

We hear quite often that a particular company has decided to move their headquarters or some major facility to a new state that is more "business friendly." I've always thought about how this particular ploy could be leveraged in unanticipated ways by a progressive business owner. That seems more feasible than expecting a bunch of individuals to bootstrap themselves into a move.

[JanieM]

demonization can drop dramatically when people discover that The Other are people they already know

We're seeing just how far it *really* dropped right now, i.e. not all the way, and also that it can be revived at the drop of a hat.

Gay and right now especially trans issues, a manufactured hysteria, are once again being used for political ends; there have been a couple of good threads at BJ about this, one of them live right now. One of their regular commenters did a good summary a few days ago about how attacking gay people helped Bush win Ohio in 2004, in the context of the same playbook being used now. Only, in my opinion, much more viciously and destructively, right in tandem with the destruction of women's health care.

By accident I have been seeing some Maine local school board candidate mailings (not from my town) blathering about kiddie porn in libraries. In case you didn't know, "Back to Basics" is the dog whistle. Also "local values."

And that's related to the problem of shipping people en masse to try to turn red areas purple or blue: it won't stick. It never does, the pendulum always swings. Maybe it would be better to figure out how to minimize the magnitude of the swing. Pie in the sky, for sure.

If only.

[wj]

Interesting thought, nous. It hadn't occurred to me. (And it should have.)

[wonkie]

I think it is more likely that the migration will be in the other direction. There's already people moving out of neo-fascist red states for political reasons, and there's people looking for places to go to college or do a medical residency or to pursue a career--and deciding "no" when it comes to a red state. I expect many red states to experience a brain drain.

BTW something good happened in Mississippi. This is so unusual! https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/education/learning/mississippi-schools-literacy.html#:~:text=By%202019%2C%20Mississippi%20had%20risen%20to%2029th%20in,top%20readers%20nationwide%2C%20according%20to%20the%20Urban%20Institute.

[wj]

I think it is more likely that the migration will be in the other direction. There's already people moving out of neo-fascist red states for political reasons

Lots of that, too. Although I suspect that a big motivator might be classified as social: ramped up bigotry over various issues.

Also some opportunity costs: companies which might have set up new facilities in red states deciding not to, simply because their desired employees would refuse to move there.

[CharlesWT]

Without the paywall.

In Mississippi, a Broad Effort to Improve Literacy Is Yielding Results: The state took numerous, focused steps that elevated students’ reading scores from among the lowest in the nation. Here’s how educators did it.

There's a growing realization that schools for years haven't been using the best methods to teach reading.

[CharlesWT]

Currently, the net migration is to mostly red states.

[wj]

Currently, the net migration is to mostly red states.

It's been a long term trend for companies to move to more "business friendly" places. But the trend is dropping. Once, employees would be willing to move; after all, the cost of living was also lower.

But today, that willingness is dropping. Aided by the hot job market, which means people don't need to follow the job they currently have in order to stay employed.

[nous]

Thinking red state/blue state for migration is natural in this context, but the real key is to look at it on the community level.

Example - Texas is growing as a red state, but the fastest growth is in Austin.

If I were really looking to game theory this out as a strategy, playing with both the "business friendly" side of the equation and the "getting away from fascism" side, I'd go looking for swing states or low-population red states that border a reliably blue state, then go looking for border cities that had universities in them: Spokane/Cour d'Alene; Duluth/Superior; Fargo/Moorhead. The idea being that you can put your company facility in the red state and put as many people who are not at particular risk there as well to help purple the area, but have a safer place on the other side of the border to act as a haven for your LGBTQ+ employees to live and for your female employees to seek healthcare.

You'd come really close to these conditions in Laramie as well. I know people who teach in Laramie but live in Fort Collins. If you could find enough people who would live in Laramie, they'd be able to dip down to Fort Collins for safety and entertainment.

The other long-term benefit of the places mentioned is that they are places that people are likely to move to once the southern US becomes less livable due to climate change, so those changes will only accelerate the purpling trend.

[Laura Koerber]

I was thinking about internal migration due to climate change. CA has lost population, obviously. But my guess is most of the other losses will come from the SE coast, the coast of the deep south, and areas of Texas. There are people who might decide, next snow apocalypse in Buffalo, to get the fuck out of upstate NY, but I think flood and fire are going to be the biggest issues. Oh and lack of water. Maybe people will stop moving to AZ.

A friend of mine is moving to Spain THey give long term green cards to retired people with an option for citizenship after a time period. Portugal has a similar program. If I could move anywhere, I'd go to Iceland.

[hairshirthedonist]

Allstate and State Farm (for now) not issuing new homeowners policies in CA because of increasing natural-disaster risk [aka climate change (aka global warming)]. It’s a regulatory issue (for now), but one springing from a cost issue that will remain even if the regulatory issue goes away - allowing the cost to be passed on to the consumer. One more reason for consumers (aka people) to leave.

[nous]

The insurance and finance side of things are going to become a bigger factor as we move forward. One of the articles I had my climate migration class read was arguing for more information sharing from local lenders to decision making bodies regarding property risk. The smaller local lenders buy risky properties and then sell them on to larger financial entities in bundles as a way of externalizing their risk while maximizing profits. Good policy decision making needs to do the opposite of this and spread the risk as widely and thinly as possible to shield the most vulnerable. We need to better visualize the financial risk and communicate that to people in ways that rewards sustainable choices.

Probably best if a non-profit entity does that so as to minimize moral hazard.

[Hartmut]

Although I have a weak spot for Iceland, I could not imagine to live there permanently. Too much of a big (European) city guy for that.

[CharlesWT]

Iceland has come a long way since I was there in 1971-72. For one, the barely paved, barely two-lane track between Keflavik and Reykjavik is now a four-lane divided highway.

[CharlesWT]

I think some areas of Iceland are being taken over by a bluebonnet-related plant from Alaska. It was introduced because it would grow in areas where native plants wouldn't. But it's out-competing native plants in areas where they would grow.

[Ugh]

Headed to Iceland next month

[CharlesWT]

Good time of year. Twenty-three plus hours of sunlight. Perhaps a bit windy and high temperatures in the high 50s F. Maybe.

[Michael Cain]

Allstate and State Farm (for now) not issuing new homeowners policies in CA because of increasing natural-disaster risk [aka climate change (aka global warming)].

Florida's state-run property-insurer-of-last-resort is seeing large increases in the number of clients. At hearings today, the company proposed increasing premiums for primary residences by 12% and for non-primary ones by much more than that. I believe private insurers are allowed to rise rates by similar amounts if the state company gets those increases. From what I read, the state-run company is not subject to the same reserve and reinsurance requirements that private companies are. Given a large hurricane, the Florida state government may be on the hook for large payouts.

[Michael Cain]

35 years ago my wife and I moved from NJ to Colorado along with our kids. The state was almost solidly red at the time in terms of elected office holders (there's a history of electing Democrats to the governor's office). 18 years later the state flipped to mostly blue over the course of two elections. To a considerable extent, the flip was based on a large increase in jobs and population that favored left-leaning knowledge workers. That population shift was already underway when we arrived. Long story short, Colorado is a model for what people propose doing in other red states.

Let's tick off the important points. (1) It took 25 years (round numbers). Wyoming or Indiana will take just as long. If lots of people can be attracted there; Colorado has weather and quality of life advantages over either. (2) It would have taken longer without the Gang of Four forming in 2004: four local liberal billionaires (or almost) and a well-plotted plan to flip the state legislature to Democratic control. Note in passing that they didn't consult with the state Democratic party, they did it on their own. Which billionaires are going to flip Indiana? (3) Expanding the infrastructure to support the population growth was painful. Eg, metro Denver's transportation facilities have kept just ahead of rush hour collapse for as long as I have lived here. (4) Housing prices increased at an insane rate because it just wasn't feasible to build fast enough to keep up.

[CharlesWT]

At hearings today, the company proposed increasing premiums for primary residences by 12% and for non-primary ones by much more than that.

If for decades the market had been allowed to set premiums, there would be fewer people living in Flordia. Especially in hurricane-prone areas.

[Michael Cain]

If for decades the market had been allowed to set premiums, there would be fewer people living in Flordia. Especially in hurricane-prone areas.

Also wildfire-prone areas in California and Colorado.

Or perhaps we'd just get more instances of the Bastrop Complex fire in Texas: hundreds of houses, a majority of whose owners spent every cent they had on the property, didn't buy any insurance, and let pine needles drift up to the side of their house.

I live five miles from the Colorado Front Range foothills, and have never even thought about buying up there. It's a when your property burns, not if.

[wj]

I live five miles from the Colorado Front Range foothills, and have never even thought about buying up there. It's a when your property burns, not if.

In this part of California, the vegetation is mostly (dry and extremely flammable all summer) grass, with occasional trees. And disking firebreaks around fields, especially abutting a house, is a must. The forested areas are a tinderbox, as we saw the last couple of summers. But even away from them, it's pretty much when not if here, too.

[wonkie]

My entitled, self-satisfied, pampered, upper middle class HOA neighbors, having never experienced any real risk in their lives, are in an ABSOLUTE PANIC over fire here in on an island in the south Puget Sound. As a result we have a lot of discussion and visiting experts etc to talk about fire. Fearmongering abounds, but some good insights have resulted.
If you live in one of the "when" fire areas, you can protect your property even from a major fire by "hardening" your house. In the south Sound, this means keep your roof clean. IN the Colorado foothills it means take actions out one hundred feet but definitely keep your roof clean. There was a guy who survived the Paradise fire because he had an outdoor sprinkler system. The majority of houses in Paradise ignited from sparks landing on their roofs, not because of flames from burning vegetation. Burning vegetation can pass a hardened house by, but a house with a dirty roof can burn down even if the flames never get any closer than half a mile.

[wonkie]

But back to the topic of migration; it will be interesting to see the results of the FL hatemongering at illegal immigrants. Will there be an exodus of workers? I kind think not mostly because the illegals are so economically marginal that moving away wouldn't be easy at all and where are they going to go? But apparently there is a lot of talk about leaving and there are videos making the rounds of empty fields and silent work sites. The Republican haters who voted for the law are now running around the state begging illegals to stay.

[JanieM]

Arrest "illegals" for being illegal, put them in prison, rent them out as farm labor for which they get effectively no pay at all instead of the meager pittance they get now. The South will Rise Again.

[wj]

Will there be an exodus of workers? I kind think not mostly because the illegals are so economically marginal that moving away wouldn't be easy at all and where are they going to go? But apparently there is a lot of talk about leaving and there are videos making the rounds of empty fields and silent work sites.

From what I'm seeing, there are lots of those silent work sites and empty fields. Even if the workers haven't left the state yet, they are staying away from work for the moment out of an understandable abundance of caution. And the economy is feeling the pain already.

As for the haters who passed these bills. They have discovered that, even if their voters liked them, their donors (who are vastly more important to them) are seriously unhappy. Hence the scramble to convince the people they have been demonizing to stay around. It will be interesting to see how DeSantis reacts -- assuming he doesn't succeed in evading reporters with questions on the topic.

[wonkie]

Thank you for the update! This has long been a dilemma for Republicans: the need to simultaneously hate/fear monger about how terrible it is that illegals are here while keeping them here to exploit.

[bobbyp]

damnned canaries:

https://www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/insurance-politics-at-the-end-of

yes, there are no tomatos:

https://www.salon.com/2023/06/07/video-shows-florida-beg-migrants-not-to-leave-state-over-desantis-anti-law/

[bobbyp]

wonkie,
yep. what the GOP has been trying to get for decades is an updated version of the bracero program. calling it 'reform' will not make it so.

[bobbyp]

up here in the 48th soviet of washington, we found out canada has a lot of trees back in 2017.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/us/wildfires-canada-seattle.html

[wj]

what the GOP has been trying to get for decades is an updated version of the bracero program.

I would agree that a new bracero program would allow them to square the circle. But I beg leave to doubt that many of the GOP's politicians have figured that out.

I suspect that, for them, the whole immigrant issue is just another instance of the overall challenge they face: that the interests of their donors are mostly opposite to the interests of their voters. Especially, but by no means exclusively, the financial interests. And the possibility that the conflict might be resolved here is novel enough to escape their notice.

You can just picture them (at least the ones who aren't batsh*t crazy) saying to each other: "OMG! We've got ourselves to the point of actually delivering on the stuff we have been talking up for years. This does not end well. Best case: the disaster doesn't happen before we retire."

[wonkie]

"OMG! We've got ourselves to the point of actually delivering on the stuff we have been talking up for years. This does not end well. Best case: the disaster doesn't happen before we retire."

Fucked around and found out.

They did that with abortion too.

[wj]

They did that with abortion too.

Yup. Arguably the type case. Certainly the one which got the attention of voters and potential voters who previously had been ignoring the possibility. The more recent ones are just reinforcing the message.

[Steve in Manhattan]

Left DC in 2001, but I moved to NYC. I was no help at all.