Political Advertising

by wj

Yesterday, I saw a TV** ad regarding one of the partisan positions on the California ballot next month. And it occurred to me that this is the first, and only, such ad I've encountered. Apparently all the other races are considered inevitable enough that there's no reason to spend on it.

We have a half dozen statewide propositions on the ballot. I've seen a bunch of ads concerning the two propositions regarding online sports betting. And lots and lots of ads opposing the proposition (the third in three years!) which wants dialysis clinics to have a doctor or registered nurse on site. but that's about it.

So what was the one partisan ad? We have, this time, a moderate Republican running for State Controller. The Controller is basically a fiscal watchdog. Personally, I think there is something to be said for having someone from a different party monitoring how the money is being spent. Especially since he doesn't decide what it should be spent for, just that it is being spend for the legally mandated ends.

So what did the ad say? Nothing about the actual job, and the candidates' qualifications. Instead, it talked about abortion and Trump -- neither of which have anything to do with the office. In short, guilt by association.

All of which leads me to wonder: how is advertising looking elsewhere in the country?

** Note, I have no clue what may be happening on Fox News.

Comments

[wj]

No doubt it is merely an indication of my level of cynicism that my first thought, looking at the dialysis proposition was this: when and if it passes, is it immediately followed by one arguing that abortion is obviously more serious a procedure than dialysis. So abortion clinics should be under the same restriction -- a policy which various anti-abortion states have rolled out.

Considering who is sponsoring the proposition, that seems unlikely. But it was the first thought that occurred.

[hairshirthedonist]

I don't live in PA, but see all the ads aired in the Philly media market. It's a constant barrage of outrageous and negative ads. Many are aimed at Democrats in general, coming from the lovely Stephen Miller-associated Citizens for Sanity. Most, but far from all, of the others are from the Fetterman-Oz race. Far-left radical Fetterman wants criminals to kill you. Dr. Oz tortures and kills puppies.

[JanieM]

[Deleting all but one copy of hsh's 1:56. No idea what's going on with Typepad lately...]

[wj]

Citizens for Sanity

A classic example of how Truth in Labeling doesn't apply to PACs.

[bobbyp]

Don't know much about this elective office, but if Wikki is correct*, a miscreant could create a lot of mischief (some say, cough, cough).

Most importantly, the bottom line is this: Anybody who runs for public office as a self-identified Republican has explicitly aligned themselves with a authoritarian if not overtly fascist movement that yes, wants to make abortion illegal and most likely will nominate Clickbait for president in 2024. How "good" they are is irrelevant in the larger scheme of things.

They need to be defeated. Vote Cohen.

*apparently there is also a state auditor who reports to the legislature.

[bobbyp]

even Kevin Drum

[bobbyp]

even Kevin Drum

[wj]

Anybody who runs for public office as a self-identified Republican has explicitly aligned themselves with a authoritarian if not overtly fascist movement

I have to disagree. Some of us are self-identified Republicans who have a burning desire to haul our party (probably kicking and screaming at this point) back to sanity. And the only way that happens is if some sane Republican candidates become available.

Now voting for the crazies, that's a different deal. But then, both parties have crazies which one would not wish to vote for.

[JanieM]

I have to disagree. Some of us are self-identified Republicans who have a burning desire to haul our party (probably kicking and screaming at this point) back to sanity. And the only way that happens is if some sane Republican candidates become available.

Don't know the implications of the State Controller position, but the R candidate for my Maine House rep sent out a letter (I assume to the whole constituency) affirming his support for a woman's right to choose.

As if that matters, as against having a D in the seat who actually reflects my views more or less across the board!

Plus, leaving aside the fact that in a previous stint in the legislature for another district, this candidate showed himself to hold a completely unacceptable (to me) position about guns, a legislative seat has implications for the leadership roles in the legislature. This guy can tout himself as independent-minded all he wants, and he does, but he ran in the R primary, and he would take his seat as an R, and that is all I need to know.

Truly nothing personal, wj, but the notion that you are ever going to pull your party back from Qlunacy and all the other lunacies, including treason (1/6 etc.), seems kind of delusional. I know, I know, the South used to be reliably D and now it's reliably (?) R, so yes, that kind of change can happen.

But electing members of the "authoritarian if not [yet] [officially] overtly fascist movement" that is the current Republican party simply enables the lunacy. It doesn't undercut it in any way.

[wj]

Here's where I'm coming from:

• For the country to run well, it needs two (at least) parties which are willing and able to actually govern.
• Getting a new political party off the ground is essentially impossible. Widespread ranked-choice voting and top-two primaries might change that. Eventually.
• Creating a new sane party by just splitting the Democratic Party is simply a way to let the crazies take over. So, not a viable option.

So where does that leave us?

1. We can try to drag the GOP back to sanity and a devotion to democracy. And the only real hope of that which I see is by having it demonsteated, probably repeatedly, that crazy candidates lose (at least in California) while conservative but sane candidates can win.
2. Someone can come up with another option. I haven't seen one yet. But I'm definitely open to suggestions.

Janie, as for your candidate there, I entirely understand, and agree with, not being taken in by an attempted rebranding that the candidate hopes nobody will notice. But what I'm looking at here is someone who doesn't (as far as I've seen) have a history of noxious views on guns, abortion, immigration, etc. And who is running for an office which doesn't deal with any of those anyway.

[wonkie]

How to make the Republican party sane again:
1. Structure the elections differently. Try the model where the top three in an open statewide primary run against each other. That model seems to favor the middle and limit the extremism.
Another idea: make state legislature seats all state wide.
ALso abolish the electoral college so that presidential candidates have to compete everywhere and so that every vote really does count
Any other structural changes that favor moderate candidates?

However, without those structural changes I don't think the R party is going to do anything except get more and more fascist. People who support representative government and the rule of law can try to run for office themselves or try to get a decent person through the Republican primary (good luck with that!) but mostly such people have no choice but to vote for Democrats.

Also find ways to break the addiction to Faux and other Republican hate/lie sites. I am hoping that DOminion will sue Faux out of existence, and I hope that more people will be inspired to sue CHarlie Kirk, Daily Caller, etc, Maybe us normal people could all kick in to build a fund to pay the expenses of individuals who are harmed by Republican media?

[wj]

I am hoping that DOminion will sue Faux out of existence.

When Dominion sued Tucker Carlson for defamation, his defense (from his lawyers) was, approximately, "Mr Carlson is an entertainer, not a reporter. No sensible person** would assume his words represented facts." Whether Faux,a company whose name says News, can use the same ploy remains to be seen. Definitely joining you in hoping not.

** Which instantly brings to mind the time that the Bush II White House invited Stephen Colbert to entertain, because they somehow thought the Colbert Report represented his real views. Rather than being the blistering satire it so obviously was. Some people just desperately want to be suckers.

[bobbyp]

It doesn't undercut it in any way.

Agree w. JanieM. Look, the Whigs disappeared, mortally split over the question of slavery. We still managed to come up with a 2 party system (after s brief sorting out period). The assertion that if the GOP disappeared that the "crazies" will take over is not only a baseless insult, but simply unsupported by any evidence.

If your big goal is two political parties that are "sane" (a dumb requirement, but I'll play along here) then the current manifestation of the GOP has to be utterly destroyed.

(Currently that party is not split over any overarching policy issue. it is simply spinning off into racial resentment, xenophobia, hyper-nationalism, and a marked disdain for democracy.

Either they leave the GOP or you do.)

Rest assured, something will take its place to oppose all those "crazies" (you know, Pelosi, Schumer, Biden, et al-the folks who actually run the Democratic Party).

Thanks.

[bobbyp]

I'm almost old enough to remember when the Federalists got "disappeared" only to be replaced by Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe. True crazies those guys.

Good times (for some).

Thanks.

[wj]

The assertion that if the GOP disappeared that the "crazies" will take over is not only a baseless insult, but simply unsupported by any evidence.

I must have missed anyone making that assertion. The closest I came was saying that, if the Democratic Party split (in the hopes of getting two sane parties that way), the crazies would take over. And so, that would be a bad idea.

[JanieM]

(Typepad is obviously misbehaving with the repetition of comments. I'll delete the extras when I get a minute.)

ALso abolish the electoral college so that presidential candidates have to compete everywhere and so that every vote really does count.

We have a very bad chicken and egg problem with our various solutions. Abolishing the electoral college takes a constitutional amendment. As would the other thing I would like to see happen, which is for the Senate to be more proportional. (A Wyoming resident has what, 30 or 40 times more clout in Congress than a California resident does? I did this calculation not long ago but forgot the result. It's far worse if you just count Senate representation, but to be fair I threw in the House as well.)

We are not getting any Constitutional amendments, especially that one, in our current political climate, if ever. Or, only if we break up and start over. Michael Cain expects it in the next few decades, but I don't expect to be around that long. (Just in the sense that I'm already in my 70s.)

[wj]

The assertion that if the GOP disappeared that the "crazies" will take over is not only a baseless insult, but simply unsupported by any evidence.

I must have missed anyone making that assertion. The closest I came was saying that, if the Democratic Party split (in the hopes of getting two sane parties that way), the crazies would take over. And so, that would be a bad idea.

[bobbyp]

I must have missed anyone making that assertion.

You clearly did so, and went on to state that if the GOP got extinguished and the Democratic Party then split, that one or more of them (you were not clear on this) would be run by "crazies" (your term, not mine).

That is, to put it politely, bullshit.

[bobbyp]

We are not getting any Constitutional amendments

Yup. If there is another great civil war, it will be over the nature of our constitutional order all gussied up with disputes about race, immigration, 'culture', and maybe some economic inequality thrown in for good measure.

wj: if you were referring to rump Republicans as the 'crazies' then I may have misunderstood. Happens.

Thanks.

[JanieM]

Taking the House alone, a Wyoming resident gets 1.29 times the weight a California resident gets. (CA rep represents 747,424 people, WY rep 581,075.)

Taking the Senate alone, a Wyoming resident gets 68 times the weight a California resident gets.

Taking Congress as a whole, a Wyoming resident gets 3.72 times the weight a California resident gets.

I don't know why Californians aren't furious about this. (But there goes that Constitutional amendment question again.)

[nous]

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is the workaround for the completely unfeasible standards for a constitutional amendment.

[Girl from the North Country]

If wj was referring to rump Rs as the "crazies", I misunderstood too.

But then, both parties have crazies which one would not wish to vote for.

I would dearly like to know which D crazies are anywhere near as crazy as e.g. MTG, Lauren Boebert etc, and other Big Liars. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are (variously) corrupt, and awful, but as crazy as some of the GOPsters? I am not familiar with any, but I bow to anyone's greater knowledge if they can suggest anyone, with some supporting evidence.

[Girl from the North Country]

If wj was referring to rump Rs as the "crazies", I misunderstood too.

But then, both parties have crazies which one would not wish to vote for.

I would dearly like to know which D crazies are anywhere near as crazy as e.g. MTG, Lauren Boebert etc, and other Big Liars. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are (variously) corrupt, and awful, but as crazy as some of the GOPsters? I am not familiar with any, but I bow to anyone's greater knowledge if they can suggest anyone, with some supporting evidence.

[JanieM]

@GftNC: Someone I see a lot of made a similar comment recently, about how the big problem is that both parties have moved to their fringe crazies and fringe crazy policy aims.

Words fail. I'm not sure Biden is to the "left" of Eisenhower, if "left" has any meaning whatsoever. People swallow any plausible sounding simplification that gets tossed out for influence testing by ... whomever.

As to anything actual elected Ds want or are working for, we are already immeasurably behind most of the rest of the developed world. Guns? Women's rights? Social safety net? . . . . .

[JanieM]

(Typepad note: I haven't tested this theory enough to be sure, but I think if you preview your comment before posting, it won't get duplicated.)

[Girl from the North Country]

I always preview before posting. But recently, when I then try to post, it "buffers" (as we used to call it) for so long that I give up, and try again. Something very weird is up with it, as I mentioned a couple of days ago, it also tells me I've timed out after just a few minutes.

[wj]

You clearly did so, and went on to state that if the GOP got extinguished and the Democratic Party then split, that one or more of them (you were not clear on this) would be run by "crazies" (your term, not mine).

That is, to put it politely, bullshit.

You are entirely correct, it would be bullshit. Which is why I did not say any such thing.

[wj]

wj: if you were referring to rump Republicans as the 'crazies' then I may have misunderstood. Happens.

Note to self: read all the comments before responding.

That was, indeed, what I was saying: IF the Democrats split, the Crazies in the GOP would have a plurality. Sad, but apparently true.

[Girl from the North Country]

wj, seriously, who are these Dem crazies to whom you refer?

[wj]

wj, seriously, who are these Dem crazies to whom you refer?

I haven't bothered to pay close attention to the details. Since, as noted, they really are marginal actors.

But in general, I would include those who seriously advocate defunding (to the point of eliminating) the police. Not necessarily redirecting the funds to other public safety approaches, although they wouldn't object to that. But they just want the police, as they see them, gone entirely. (In a way, they remind me of the rabid libertarians who infect the right.)

Also those who really do believe that actual human beings generally can be successfully collectivised into something without real structure. I've met a few, so I know they exist. And they're as disconnected from reality as any QAnon believer.

I would even include as at least occasional fellow travelers those, like a certain batch of Democratic Congressmen, who apparently think that peace between Ukraine and Putin can be negotiated.** Putin would accept total surrender, but anything less would be nothing but a (very brief) cease-fire. Giving in a little bit to bullies doesn't work with individuals, and doesn't work at the macro level either.

I hope this provides at least a glimmer. It's a challenge because the Democrats simple don't tolerate letting the crazies on the left have any serious power in the party. And those who come close, like the Progressive Caucus, get reined in sharply when they wander from reality, as we saw this week.

** I realize that the letter was not supposed to have been released/sent. But that doesn't change the fact that they signed it in the first place.

[CaseyL]

The way things are going, the GOP will either start another civil war or vanish.

My bet's on the former, because they're completely aligned now with the forces wanting an ethno-Christian state, which is completely antithetical to a democracy (or, for that matter, a "Constitutional Republic"). Those forces are extremely well funded, backed by foreign powers, and pretty damn determined.

[JanieM]

Following CaseyL:

This is the kind of shit they're already doing.

That's just the first thing that comes to mind of a long, long list.

[Michael Cain]

I live in the media market for a US Senate seat the GOP would dearly love to be competitive, and a US House seat for a new-to-Colorado district that probably is competitive. It feels remarkably like we've gone 15 years back in time. The GOP candidates' ads are high crime, spending money we don't have, out of touch with Colorado values, try to tie the incumbent Senator to Biden and the (D) House candidate to Governor Polis. The (R) House candidate has tried the pander to the extremists during the primaries then race for the center for the general. The (R) Senate candidate has run as "Democrat Lite" all the way.

[Michael Cain]

I live in the media market for a US Senate seat the GOP would dearly love to be competitive, and a US House seat for a new-to-Colorado district that probably is competitive. It feels remarkably like we've gone 15 years back in time. The GOP candidates' ads are high crime, spending money we don't have, out of touch with Colorado values, try to tie the incumbent Senator to Biden and the (D) House candidate to Governor Polis. The (R) House candidate has tried the pander to the extremists during the primaries then race for the center for the general. The (R) Senate candidate has run as "Democrat Lite" all the way.

[wj]

The (R) House candidate has tried the pander to the extremists during the primaries then race for the center for the general.

To "tack to the center" for the general election is a longstanding tradition. What's different now is a) the distance to the center is further than it once was, and b) the extremists are more likely to sit home and sulk as a result.

[Girl from the North Country]

Having terrible trouble getting on the blog. Here's one I tried to post (but couldn't get through) three times earlier:

Thank you for answering, wj.
I want Russia to be unambiguously defeated, and for Ukraine to get all its territory (including Crimea) back, as well as reparations to rebuild. But I live in the real world, and unless something changes drastically (and probably the removal of Putin would be the only sufficient change) I don't think any of this is realistic. I very much hope I am wrong. And many people I love and respect believe (with bitter resignation) that the only way out is going to be some sort of negotiated settlement. So although I was shocked by the letter, it seemed not remotely crazy to me.
Have to run now, but will return to some of your other leftist crazinesses later

[Michael Cain]

Don't know if it will help anyone responsible for care and feeding of the site, but on my browser console I'm seeing assorted warnings and errors about file "political-advertising.html".

[JanieM]

Some of the glitches I'm seeing have been going on for months: specifically, certain error messages when I try to post a comment. Also, the site has been down on and off for weeks. So I don't think it's this post that's at the root of the problems.

I don't know anything about the back end except how to write/correct posts, block spam, etc. I don't even know who pays to host us. Maybe lj knows more... (lj? if you're around...?)

As a side note for entertainment (and Michael, you may know more about this) -- when the site won't load at all, I get a message like this:

Error 503 Service Unavailable Service Unavailable

Odnamrod Meditation:
XID: 946414699

After seeing this message many times, and for many years (though rarely until the past couple of months), I decided that Odnamrod needed exploration. Then I realized that it is "dormando" backwards. Which means "sleeping" in Spanish. Typical programmer self-entertainment.

[wj]

At least I have (finally!) learned that, if I try to Post and the page just sits there spinning, the correct thing to do is just act like it posted successfully. In an hour or so (not counting 503 time) it will show up as having posted.

Still, if lj finds us an alternate host I won't be distraught.

[wj]

Here is an interesting argument in favor of the good old days. Specifically, the "smoke-filled rooms" as a way of picking candidates.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/27/america-primaries-driving-polarization-radicalization/

Money quote:
"No group of party elders would ever choose a candidate like Herschel Walker."
Hard to dispute that.

[JanieM]

"No group of party elders would ever choose a candidate like Herschel Walker Clickbait."

[JanieM]

(didn't read the WaPo article, just snarking)

[wj]

I'm find with that friendly amendment. :-)

[JanieM]

It's not really accurate. The statement is true about Walker *and* Clickbait.... But it was more fun to use strikethrough.

I'm sure we could think of others. Tommy Tuberville?

[wj]

I'm sure we could think of others.

Pretty much any of the MAGA crowd. I expect that even McConnell, happy as he is to have their votes, would vastly prefer not having to deal with any of them as Senators. Certainly he has no use at all at all for TFG. And never did.

[Hartmut]

It was not the first time that unpopular reactionaries tried to harness a populist leader in the false belief that they could control him easily and got sidelined (or worse) afterwards instead.

The GOP leadership is just lucky that this time around the 'night of the long knives' is not literal (yet). Although Jan6 was possibly a close shave.

[wj]

I fear that "yet" may turn out to be the operative word.

[Hartmut]

If it comes to (specific) murder, it's unlikely that the state will do it in its official capacity as opposed to "spontaner Ausbruch des Volkszorns".
Gunning down demonstrators is a different matter. But this is traditionally left to the states.

---

Can I demand royalties for this, should this anthem by chance be adopted by the MAGAts?

Embrace the flag
And close your eyes to reason!
In lockstep marches the mighty GOP.
White and with us?
Then we'll defend all acts of treason.
Let's drink lib tears and march to victory!

We are Proud Boys
All incel but no faggots
And on our heads there sits the MAGA hat
These are our tools
To deal with n-words and lib maggots
The AR-15 and the baseball bat

We're fascists? Yes!
We proudly wave the banners
Although, it's true, a century too late.
But do we care?
We are no grown-ups, know no manners
We have no grasp! Pure Id and full of hate!

The Phooey calls
Let's storm the House and Senate
Go smash the windows, climb the riot fence
That might makes right
Today shall be our only tenet
Our battle-cry? It shall be 'Hang Mike Pence'

[JanieM]

For something less depressing, some pictures of mine at BJ.

[Hartmut]

To-day is the centenary of Mussolini's fascist takeover in Italy.
Let's hope that it will be at least for another century that his ideological brethren fail in the US.

[Girl from the North Country]

Janie, honest to God, your pictures are balm to the soul.

On the subject of weeds, which you make beautiful, leaving aside the technical details (which no doubt add to the beauty) I just wanted to say that my husband (who had successive waves of obsession about first ferns and tree ferns, then cacti and succulents) refused to call weeds "weeds". He said they were "natural things". I (no gardener but a lover of wildness) found this very endearing.

[JanieM]

GftNC -- Thank you, I'm glad they have that effect -- taking them is balm to me. Both the hobby (with its learning experiences and challenges) and the working partnership with Steve are far outside of anything I expected at this time of life. Live and learn!

Agree about "natural things" -- I have mixed feelings about "my" field, actually, because if it had been up to me, I would have let it grow however it wanted to after Bud the horse left. But my ex had other ideas, and I have to admit, his way brings a lot of a different kind of beauty.

[wj]

Sometimes, what you need is not just advertising, but the right kind of advertising.

I was wandering around youtube, and chanced on the Colonel Bogey March. I looked up the lyrics, and was inspired to write something similar, updated for today:

DeSantis has only got one ball,
McConnell has two but very small,
Pence may have something someplace,
But poor old Trump has got no balls at all.**

Now what the Democrats need is a pop icon to make a recording and have it go viral.

** I realize that, to be exactly parallel, the lyric should start with Trump. But a pop song suggesting he has no balls at all would leave him frothing at the mouth. And so was irresistable.

[rdldot]

testing... site is up now but formatting is weird. everything aligned on the left border.

[rdldot]

testing... site is up now but formatting is weird. everything aligned on the left border.

[Hartmut]

Same here. A few days already. And the whole site is on and off unpredictably.

[Hartmut]

Same here. A few days already. And the whole site is on and off unpredictably.

[Hartmut]

Same here. A few days already. And the whole site is on and off unpredictably.

[Hartmut]

And posting takes seceral attempts with cryptic error messages.

[Hartmut]

And posting takes seceral attempts with cryptic error messages.

[Hartmut]

And posting takes several attempts with cryptic error messages.

[Hartmut]

And posting takes several attempts with cryptic error messages.

[wj]

Back to normal. Finally.

FYI, we're looking seriously at moving to a different hosting service.

[JanieM]

In case anyone cares..... It was all of Typepad (our gracious host...ing service).

[wj]

Hence our desire to decamp to somewhere more reliable.

[Hartmut]

How do we get the info, where it is going to?

[Michael Cain]

It was all of Typepad (our gracious host...ing service).

From the comments, they were/are doing a data center migration. Badly, as it appears. If you change, will you be staying with Typepad or will it be a ground-up redesign?

[Michael Cain]

It was all of Typepad (our gracious host...ing service).

From the comments, they were/are doing a data center migration. Badly, as it appears. If you change, will you be staying with Typepad or will it be a ground-up redesign?

[Snarki, child of Loki]

This is what happens when you have a cat-toy for a web site, y'know.

And yes, the internet is made of cats.

[JanieM]

If you change, will you be staying with Typepad or will it be a ground-up redesign?

Michael -- The notion of migrating/rebuilding is just a gleam in lj's eye at this point, at least as far as I know, so he would have to clarify what he's thinking about.

I don't think any of us has time for major work on such a project, but we don't need anything fancy anyhow IMHO -- just a way to continue this long-running conversation amongst pixellated friends. What would really be a shame is to lose the archives, and/but I don't know anything about what's going on behind the scenes with Typepad, nor do I know anything about migrating archives. It's easy to find some stuff on the Wayback Machine, but I don't get the idea that everything has been archived there, and it's clumsy in any case. I found my "America the Beautiful" post easily enough, but I already knew the date I was looking for....which was election night 2020.

Stay tuned, I guess!

[Michael Cain]

The notion of migrating/rebuilding is just a gleam in lj's eye at this point, at least as far as I know, so he would have to clarify what he's thinking about.

I always enjoy reading how people make their decisions about choosing a platform.

[Girl from the North Country]

Thank God, or FSM, or your deity of choice!

Here's seconding Janie's hope that the archives can be saved.

[Girl from the North Country]

Thank God, or FSM, or your deity of choice!

Here's seconding Janie's hope that the archives can be saved.