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August 30, 2022

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In my very humble opinion, it's going to be a chaotic hot mess.

Considering that the far smaller level of current immigration is arguably a hot mess, this seems like a slam dunk.

And the size of the mess will only be increased by the fact that one of the biggest (probably the biggest) sources of people having to move due to climate change, Bangladesh, is adjacent to an already crowded place (India). For those people to get any further is going to require outside subsidies -- it's not like the average Bangladeshi has a lot of transportation funds available.

Making no points from this, just stuff that seems relevant:

China's population drop. (Russia too, although the way it is going about refilling itself with kidnapped Ukrainians is appalling.)

But China, despite its vaunted "minorities," is astonishingly homogeneous from an American POV, and I can't imagine integrating significant #s of non-Han-Chinese people there. (Quite the contrary, as the Uighurs could tell you.)

Still, who knows what it may come to if the declining population has ever worsening effects on China's economy and its status as a world power.

On the other hand:

China and water.

The horrifying reaction of so many people to the pandemic, punctuated this summer by such bad weather in so many places, has made me much more actively fearful of what's coming. Not so much for myself, although that's in the mix, but for the generations that come after me/us. Now that I have a grandkid, it's especially upsetting to imagine the world she is going to have to navigate.

I'm starting to think that the most important personal quality to cultivate is resilience. Probably the most important collective quality as well, but that oversimplifies, collective resilience implies a bunch of other things that Covid has conclusively shown we either don't have, or have the opposite of.

/armchair worrying for now

The horrifying reaction of so many people to the pandemic,

By this I mean, if you-all here at ObWi can't read between my lines by now, the refusal to take even the most minor steps for the sake of the general welfare. The selfishness is mind-boggling, and quite terrifying in the light of what climate change is going to bring.

And it wasn't just a refusal, it was an active, sometimes violent, often greed-drive, ultimately (if indirectly) murderous campaign to nullfiy measures needed for public health.

I'm sure I've said this, but the restaurant across and slightly up the road from me had a marquee sign out front that first winter: "Covid isn't killing us, Gov. Mills is killing us."

I can either start swearing, or stop typing.

Russia too, although the way it is going about refilling itself with kidnapped Ukrainians is appalling.

Not to mention that, from a population point of view, the costs of the invasion are high. Those troops Russia is losing are young men who would otherwise be building families. (Sort of the inverse of China's deficit of young women.) In a population cohort that was already too small to grow the population, due to the 1990s (i.e. immediately post USSR) baby-bust, this is huge.

Kidnapped Ukranians might help with that. Except for the detail that most of those who remained in conquered territory, i.e. readily available for kidnapping, were older people. Not more than a short-term bandaid for Russia's population numbers. And taking all of Ukraine, the currently unlikely total success of the invasion, will inevitably entail killing off lots of younger Ukranian men as well.

In short, while appalling, it's also doomed to failure.

Sort of the inverse of China's deficit of young women.

And yet the prejudice against older single women(30+) and divorced women is so strong that they have difficulty getting married.

The future worldwide, whichever way you look, is not very bright. Or, as russell says, is a matter for concern.

Meanwhile, on a more parochial point, economists are now projecting that inflation in the UK next year is likely to reach 22%. Somehow, I don't anticipate that this will incline the UK population towards more tolerance of immigrants (and you have to remember that intolerance of immigration was one of the major elements of the Brexit vote).

It is really hard to feel hopeful about any of it. And while I have no children, and therefore no grandchildren to worry about, I do have goddaughters I adore so have a non-genetic stake in the future. But actually, no specific stake is necessary, because, like all of us, I am involved in mankind.

inflation in the UK next year is likely to reach 22%. Somehow, I don't anticipate that this will incline the UK population towards more tolerance of immigrants (and you have to remember that intolerance of immigration was one of the major elements of the Brexit vote).

If inflation in the EU is substantially lower (I haven't seen projections for that), perhaps some enterprising politicians will decide to hold Brexit up as the cause. It might not hurt too much that they'd be correct.

For a really in-depth, data driven look at climate migration, check out this three part series at NY Times Magazine that they did with ProPublica in 2020 (yes, paywall...that's what libraries are for):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/23/magazine/climate-migration.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/15/magazine/climate-crisis-migration-america.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/16/magazine/russia-climate-migration-crisis.html

I've been struggling with what I am going to teach as my topic for my spring research writing class. This series may just do the trick as a conversation starter. It's got overlap with my Children in Armed Conflict class, but has a larger footprint for advocacy issues.

I really appreciate the data visualizations in the first article, and the infographics in the margins of the second really help to create a sense of the coming upheaval.

We have to start living in the future we want if we want to have a future at all. The disruptions have already started and can't be avoided any longer.

I really wonder if liberal democracy will be able to adapt quickly enough or act decisively enough to meet this challenge. And I say that as someone who would prefer it to do so rather than having to see what our alternative is.

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