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April 24, 2022

Comments

At least they escaped. We got Trump.

I think that, for Europe at least, the example of Putin will have the same negative impact on would-be fascists' prospects as it did on Le Pen's campaign. So my guess would be somewhere else.

India seems to be heading that way. But one could argue that, since Modi is already in power, they can't qualify for the next erruption. So I think my money is on Brazil.

Here is some more good news (I don't know much about Slovenia, though):

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/24/opposition-slovenian-liberal-party-on-course-for-landslide-win-say-exit-polls

As for France, we need to wait until the parliamentary elections in June - let's hope Macron is serious about listening to the disaffected voters.

Unfortunately, close connections to Putin and his regime are not a secure posion even inside Europe. See Hungary, where Orban publicly and seemingly successfully made hay with his openly pro-Putin 'neutrality' in the last election. Not that the opposition had any real chances of winning (Orban is the GOP's role model after all in particular concerning 'legally' rigging elections) but the outcome were even more favorite to him than had been assumed. At least over here this gets in part attributed to his 'don't anger Russia, thus keep fuel prices etc. low and boast about it' policy.
In Poland (for obvious reasons) this was not tried but still the Polish government tries to evade EU sanctions for Orbanist tendencies by playing the paragon of virtue in the Ukraine situation (arms transfers, inviting and welcoming huge numbers of refugees [after throwing a tantrum about being asked to take in a handful of Syrians not that long ago] etc.). German policy (or rather lack thereof) is rather cringeworthy too. The ruling coalition and most parties inside and outside it are deeply split and the Green Party seems to have abandoned its pacifist roots almost completely at the moment (and stands more or less united despite lacking a strong single leading person).
Quite ironic. A few years ago a statement of 'we can't spare any tanks, we have too few already and most of them are useless due to lack and neglect of maintenance' would have been extremly soothing to many of our neighbours.

Thank God for the result, but a) as the pundits have all been saying, this was more a vote for who the electorate hated least, and b) despite this she did gain (I think) 7 percentage points on last time. And wj: I thought Brazil already had their Trump in Bolsonaro. He may be experiencing dissatisfaction at the moment, but like Modi, he is in power. He, along with Modi and Viktor Orban, were what made people realise that the swing to rightwing populism (with the potential for anti-democratic authoritarianism) were not confined to the USA and Trump.

GftNC, I hadn't realized that Brazil had gone that far. Guess I'll have to look further for a candidate....

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