by liberal japonicus
Though we've not talked about Ukraine much, I see a few rumblings. A lot of outlets shared Fiona Hill's shade on Trump, cause clickbait baby! but the whole interview has a lot more stuff.
If news outlets had done another deep dive into the cesspool that was Trump's foreign policy, that would have justified highlighting it, but I just saw a crack at Trump and we are moving on. I was hoping that things like this
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/24/ukraine-ambassador-yovanovitch-tape-trump
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/01/donald-trump-marie-yovanovitch-recording
Might have been discussed, but I've not seen any mention of it in these articles.
Separately for Hill's observations, it also reminds me that Saule Omarova was smeared
And before her, Alexander Vindman
https://theintercept.com/2019/10/29/republicans-accuse-colonel-vindman-jew-fled-soviet-persecution-dual-loyalty/
Perhaps this is too slender a connection, but there is this
https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/passports-as-pretext-how-russias-war-on-ukraine-could-start/
And one big leap deserves another. I think the Elaine Gu question of citizenship is actually related. I think I've watched less than 3 minutes of the Winter Olympics, but I have read a lot about people opining about Gu
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/18/how-citizenship-row-clouded-eileen-gus-olympics-chinese-american-skier
as well as Zhu Yi
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60298544
Of course, someone like Bill Maher might confidently opine that Russian and China are birds of a feather, but for me, it just suggests that the whole edifice of nationalism and passports is a house of cards.
Anyway, a thread to talk about something different.
One of the questions I'm seeing is whether Russian troops moving into the rebel-held regions in eastern Ukraine constitutes an invasion.
My sense is that it is not. Quite. Simply because Russian special forces have been there for years. They were, after all, the actual drivers of the "rebellion" there. So the new Russian troops are merely a shift to replace special forces with regular troops. More overt, but not actually anything new.
Of course, I expect these new troops to be part of the full invasion. The question in my mind is, does Putin just invade across the board? Or does he escalate slowly -- say by having the rebel areas claim the parts of their regions which are still controlled by the Ukrainian government. And use Russian troops for just that local attack. Initially.
Posted by: wj | February 23, 2022 at 08:11 AM
I don't think moving the troops into the "rebel"-held areas was the pivotal point, but rather recognizing the territorial claims of the "rebel" leaders to the whole regions, thereby officially questioning the integrity of Ukraine's borders and setting us up for war.
Posted by: novakant | February 23, 2022 at 09:35 AM
Well, the former guy thinks it's all great and super smart, like something we should do on our southern border. It's a legitimate peacekeeping operation.
At the same time, it's something that never would have happened if he were still in charge.
I guess that's a pivot...?
Posted by: hairshirthedonist | February 23, 2022 at 09:51 AM
I agree. I'm guessing that, once the Russian troops are settled in, the "rebel" (aka special forces) troops will attack Ukrainian forces which still hold much of the regions. And when the government fight back, the "peacekeepers" will move in to support the rebels. Then, when the Ukrainian troops resist them in turn, a general invasion will be spun as a reaction to those provocations.
Such a hassle, when Putin had all those lovely movies of provocations all ready. Except that we had announced exactly what he was doing, so he had to contrive a different provocation on the fly. I wonder if it has occurred to him that this was only the first of a variety of ways that his grandiose plans are going awry.
Posted by: wj | February 23, 2022 at 09:52 AM
Next up: Putin accuses Ukraine of cheating at Wordle, launches invasion.
Posted by: Snarki, child of Loki | February 23, 2022 at 10:46 AM
the former guy thinks it's all great and super smart, like something we should do on our southern border.
Next up, the former guy decides we should invade Mexico. (Maybe so he can get a rake-off on the drug business there...?) Hey, if it works for Putin, he will naturally want to do the same.
Posted by: wj | February 23, 2022 at 10:54 AM
As Putin moves on Ukraine, the folks in the Baltics are understandably nervous that they might be next in his sights. But I don't think they actually are. I think his next target is the Republic of Georgia. Consider:
1) the Baltics are members of NATO. Georgia (despite multiple requests) is not.
2) Russia already invaded and grabbed off a couple of Georgian provinces. (Longer ago than they grabbed the Ukrainian provinces, actually.) So artificial pretexts for further action are readily to hand.
3) Putin's hero, Stalin, was from Georgia.
So the Georgians are not wrong to be nervous.
But (compulsive optimist, here!) there is the possibility that, if Putin's Ukrainian adventure implodes, Georgia might both get its provinces back and even get NATO membership at last. After all, the historical case for us to intervene is at least as good as Russia's.
Posted by: wj | February 23, 2022 at 03:08 PM
Unfortunately it will be the neo-Confederates that burn down Atlanta next time.
Posted by: Priest | February 23, 2022 at 03:33 PM
We see now why vermin subhuman Trump let nuclear arms treaties lapse.
So he and Putin could have their buttons and use them in 2025.
"Why can't we use the nukes?' he asked the fuck republican idiots who agreed to work for him so he would cut their taxes.
So the world now must live with yet another massive nuclear buildup because the genocidal conservative movement around the world didn't think the last one scared enough of the shit out of us.
https://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2022/02/an-its-all-connected-open-thread.html?cid=6a00d834515c2369e20282e145d9d5200b#comment-6a00d834515c2369e20282e145d9d5200b
I, and our children, have to live thru this fucking shit again after growing up under the mushroom cloud.
Slaughter and butcher the worldwide death cult conservative movement in America and Russia and on every continent.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 23, 2022 at 04:16 PM
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2022/02/the-deep-roots-of-tuckers-putin-apologia
OK, true conservatives, when will you shoot all of these traitorous conservative vermin?
I guess that would be cannibalism, you fucking republican subhuman cowards.
You gonna leave to the gunless, hapless Left, are ya?
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 01:06 AM
https://twitter.com/American_Bridge/status/1496682759208775683
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQncV8eYOBI
It's an instructional film created by the Founders to show us how to save America from subhuman murderous genocidal conservative movement fascism.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 01:28 AM
This has never happened, nor been permitted in America before:
https://digbysblog.net/2022/02/23/its-happening/
Pick one:
A. The Republican Party Conservative Movement
B. America
Pick A and I kill B.
Pick B, or fucking else.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 02:02 AM
Digby asks: "Can you imagine this guy [Trump] in the situation room right now?"
Not hard to imagine. Be just like Jan 6 last year: cheering on the invaders.
Posted by: wj | February 24, 2022 at 07:56 AM
Morning after November 8, 2016:
65,840,000 decent human beings, still a majority in the country formerly known as America: We voted for Hillary Clinton.
62,980,000 nincompoops, ignoramuses, haters, fascists, idiots, corrupt, motherfucking, cocksucking (perhaps a redeeming thing) traitorous murderers: Make America Grate (sic). We each voted at least twice for Donald Trump!
4,490,000 wise, concerned, mealy-mouthed types who absorbed enemy Putin butteremails propaganda: We voted for the pothead who asked: "Give me Libertar .... no, hold on .... What's a Kiev?"
One guy, once here, but no longer here: I voted for Ted Cruz, who is familiar with only two Amendments to the Constitution, the Second, for murdering us, and the Fifth, to be exercised when he is never cross-examined for his crimes in a Court of Law in a fascist conservative courtroom overseen by a Republican Death Cult Judge.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 09:43 AM
https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2014/03/parma_is_home_to_ohios_largest.html
Fake Christian Beverly Hillbilly JD Vance, his ass well-licked by Rod Dreher and other vermin, yesterday, continuing with his elegiac prose: "I don't really care what happens to Ukraine."
Some 46,000 Ukrainians in Vance's Ohio. Arm them and set them to work against their mortal vermin conservative movement enemies on America soil.
Nearly one million Ukrainians in America alone.
Imagine them, all of them, with automatic weaponry, torches, and various instruments of anal torture surrounding every Murdoch FOXNews nest of subhuman murderous vipers in America, chanting for Tucker Carlson's detached head, and for every FOX fascist blonde they employ to emerge from their cubicles and do a little naughty twirl ... before their ceremonial disembowling.
Hint: Carlson is hold up, like Goebbels from Hitler's bunker, in either of his Florida or Maine homes. The addresses should be easy to obtain.
Just turn right at Mar-a-Lago, but make sure to cast your eyes back to get a last look at the inferno.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 10:10 AM
Conservative Political Action Conference, 2022 began on
Thursday, February 24
and ends on
Sunday, February 27
The Video Feed, if America still existed:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQncV8eYOBI
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 10:38 AM
FOX News, QAnon, Breitbart, OAN, Bannon, Trump, CPAC, and the Republican National Committee are days away from demanding all Ukrainians on American soil be detained and remanded to concentration camps, al la World War II, with eventual deportation back to Ukraine for disposal.
Russian nationalists on American soil will be recruited to serve as guards in the camps.
Trans and Gay Ukrainians, Jewish Ukrainians, Feminist Ukrainians, Muslim Ukrainians, the odd black Ukrainian, School Teacher Ukrainians, Government employee Ukrainians, and recently arrived refugee and immigrant Ukrainians will be designated high priority targets and sent via cattle car to the great state of Texas for quick checks of their genitals (for ticks, lice, and telltale signs of illicit love), cranium measurements, cattle prod reflex measurements, and signs of fetal tissue and then it's off to Florida, Ohio is in the bidding for the final solution as well, for the mulching of the lot of them.
Putin, Trump, and XI Jinping
All three entranced by the manly dysporia of a conservative nostalgic past united in fascist nationalism (by which I mean whatever is good for them personally and their offshore accounts)
Make Russia Great Again
Make China Great Again
Make America Great Again
We're just the cannon fodder, unless we goddamned kill all of this malignant, viral, united conservative movement and their followers around the globe.
I do hope Trump is in touch with Xi Jinping to also signal the latter that invading Taiwan this week too would be good for Republican Party chances in the stolen elections to come in fuckwad America.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 11:44 AM
Putin's Ukraine invasion speech the other day was the introductory celebratory speech kicking off CPAC today for the conservative vermin movement.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 11:49 AM
Will they be handing out red/white/blue striped flags at CPAC?
Posted by: Snarki, child of Loki | February 24, 2022 at 12:08 PM
Will they be handing out red/white/blue striped flags at CPAC?
Only if you stretch the description to cover the Confederate Battle Flag.
Posted by: wj | February 24, 2022 at 01:00 PM
Hungary's Victor Orban agrees on sanctions against Russia.
https://balkaninsight.com/2022/02/22/hungary-falls-into-line-over-eu-sanctions-for-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/
Will his fanboy traitors and fellow traveling Putin ass wipes Carlson and Dreher try to foment insurrection among Hungary's right wing murderous vermin against Victor the RINO?
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 02:34 PM
All of these people are about to get their limbs broken but never thought I’d hear “glory to Ukraine” shouted down streets of Moscow
https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1496926782129414147
Posted by: Nigel | February 24, 2022 at 02:47 PM
A sampling of headlines from our homegrown traitorous subhuman right wing media, via Eschaton:
OAN guest defends invasion of Ukraine, claims it's a “distraction” from Biden's domestic problems
Steve Bannon mocks NATO, U.S. military to promote Russian propaganda reel
Rudy Giuliani on Russia invading Ukraine: “They have a president, we don't”
Fox News’ foreign policy pincer attack targets Biden on Ukraine
Newsmax host: “This Russian invasion that they claim is well underway smells fishy to me
When will Joe Biden and my government, sworn to protect us against enemies foreign and domestic, order the arrest and execution by brutal means of all of America's enemies, the legions of them, who have infiltrated our media, and our governments, federal, state, and local and who are sabotaging this country's vital interests.
Shall we wait until they, led by Rupert Murdoch, enable and assist Putin's certain attacks on our domestic infrastructure, such as the electrical grid, transportation hubs, and our military-industrial complex?
No. It'll be too late then.
Act now to extinguish by deadly force the grave threat from our domestic enemies.
If killing was good enough for the Rosenbergs, why not Murdoch, Bannon, and Carlson?
Mildred Elizabeth Gillars and Rita Zucca and Iva Toguri.
Hey, Joe, you like Yankee's chances in pennant race. You play third base, Joe?
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 03:01 PM
From Nigel's link:
Beautiful news if true:
Kharkiv:
-3000 Russians dead
-2 battalions abandoned positions & escaping
Kherson:
-200 Russians dead
Gostomel airport (Kyiv area- was momentarily occupied today):
-all occupiers neutralised
Chernihiv (North Ukraine):
-~100 enemy vehicles destroyed
Well, if true, which would be good, but if true, Putin will go fully nuclear within a week, as traitorous genocidal murderer Trump allowed and encouraged him to.
You'll know when it's coming because conservative propagandists in our media will be broadcasting from bunkers and bomb shelters, unless we kill them first.
I'm sorry Rush Limbaugh is missing this, because then we could have set him up in front of a firing squad.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 03:13 PM
More in Nigel's vein:
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496905869983768581%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdigbysblog.net%2F
Will Putin appear soon in a St. Petersburg square, clutching an upside down Russian Orthodox Bible presented to him by Rod Dreher and clear the streets?
Are Donald Trump and company in touch with Putin and encouraging him to slaughter and butcher all of the protestors in Russia and Ukraine as a preview of the fascist Republican Party plans for our southern border, and the streets of liberal American cities that american conservatives want eliminated, including all government buildings in Washington DC.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 03:23 PM
When speech fails, use conservative movement speech: gunfire.
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2022/02/the-incredible-disappearing-agency-of-vladimir-putin
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chernobyl-power-plant-captured-by-russian-forces-ukrainian-official-2022-02-24/
Someone the other day, I can't find it now, surveyed the unfolding scene domestic and foreign and said "God help America!"
No!
The Christian God, this thug conservative one, is not on America's side. God and John Wilkes Booth are the Founders of the American Conservative movement and the Republican Party. Both are killers, but the Christian God, in his felt painting, storefront, quaking, shaking American asshole embodiment is a genocidal murderer, who by vermin conservatives own claim, has been distributing military grade armaments and ammunition to his flock of 80 million murderers to kill all of their enemies: US.
I think God requires a head shot.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 03:42 PM
I'm running low on rants, but there's a bright spot in the fight against inflation:
Some of the heat is off those decent people: chickens.
Rejoice!
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/burger-king-franchisor-reduces-number-of-nuggets-in-meals-to-8-from-10-in-effort-to-combat-inflation-11645735088?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 03:52 PM
Perhaps my comment was too subtle, but at a CPAC roughly four years ago, someone handed out "red/white/blue horizontal stripes" flags to the participants, who eagerly waved them.
Until someone noticed that it was actually Russian flags, and confiscated them all.
Canceled, one might call it. They don't do that any more.
Posted by: Snarki, child of Loki | February 24, 2022 at 05:46 PM
link
Prescient, one could call it.
Posted by: Snarki, child of Loki | February 24, 2022 at 05:48 PM
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/live-blog/russias-assault-on-ukraine-continues?entry=1406442
Please send Ukrainian refugees, and arm them from our military stores, with military grade weaponry, as Zelensky is doing in the Ukraine now, and send them to violent conservative red states to be the first line of savage defense against the subhuman conservative movement in those questionable territories.
Posted by: Nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 08:22 PM
https://digbysblog.net/2022/02/24/an-experts-view/
The killing can’t begin soon enough.
Posted by: Nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 08:49 PM
To wit:
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a39212527/russia-ukraine-orthodox-christianity-crusade/
Posted by: Nooneithinkisinmytree | February 24, 2022 at 09:36 PM
Is anyone else seeing the XL Pipeline argument? It's so goofy, but some people will lap anything up if it's what they want to hear.
Posted by: hairshirthedonist | February 25, 2022 at 09:08 AM
Is anyone else seeing the XL Pipeline argument?
Yep. An acquaintance posted it, then pulled it after I pointed out that he needed to provide details about how a pipeline that was intended to deliver Canadian light crude oil to the Port of Houston was going to make Europe less dependent on Russian natural gas.
Posted by: Michael Cain | February 25, 2022 at 10:05 AM
Snarki: yes, your first comment was too subtle! I'd completely forgotten that incident - thanks for reminding us.
Nothing to say apart from that, except that I am trying not to get too caught in the weeds of every single incident when watching war in Europe, but couldn't help feeling very sad when the 13 Ukrainian troops defending Snake Island replied to the Russian warship's demand that they lay down their arms to avoid bloodshed by saying "Russian Warship, go fuck yourself", and were all killed. Meanwhile, unsurprisingly that has become a rallying cry in the Ukraine.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 25, 2022 at 11:15 AM
And not just in the Ukraine. A Russian spokeswoman has said that Sweden and Finland could face "political and military consequences" if they move closer to NATO, to which various Swedes have tweeted "Go fuck yourselves."
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 25, 2022 at 11:21 AM
When even Tucker Carlson starts backpedalling, it's an indication of a big shift somewhere....
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 25, 2022 at 12:29 PM
Carlson isn't backing away, he's throwing rhetorical chaff to give himself some deniability. He'll be back pouring poison in Théoden's ear soon enough.
Posted by: nous | February 25, 2022 at 01:11 PM
He'll be back pouring poison in Théoden's ear soon enough.
Can't argue with this!
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 25, 2022 at 01:25 PM
the 13 Ukrainian troops defending Snake Island replied to the Russian warship's demand that they lay down their arms to avoid bloodshed by saying "Russian Warship, go fuck yourself", and were all killed. Meanwhile, unsurprisingly that has become a rallying cry in the Ukraine.
Ah, "the word that won the war" makes a new appearance. I wonder if the Russians are acquainted with the phrase.
Posted by: wj | February 25, 2022 at 01:26 PM
I had never heard of this, wj, and am finding it surprisingly difficult to google. Would you be able to give a precis, and possible link?
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 25, 2022 at 01:39 PM
Gftnc, try this: The Word That Won the War from Google books. (Amazon doesn't appear, on brief search, to offer it.)
Not sure where I first heard the phrase (in reference to World War II), but clearly it make an impression.
Posted by: wj | February 25, 2022 at 01:55 PM
Yes, I found that, wj, but can't find a way to see anything inside it, even (as you say) on Amazon, and not inclined to buy without strong reason! Are you able to say what you understand it is about?
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 25, 2022 at 02:34 PM
"The word that won" WW II being the word "F*ck!" on the lips of American (and probably UK and other English speaking) troops. In particular "F*ck the Germans!" among those on the European front. It was a way to vent feelings and keep going in adversity.
Seems like it is having a similar utility for the Ukrainians.
Posted by: wj | February 25, 2022 at 02:50 PM
And "the word that won the war" makes such a lovely circumlocution, don't you think? Not to mention an excuse for using a word not otherwise allowed (at the time) In mixed company.
Posted by: wj | February 25, 2022 at 02:52 PM
Ah, I see (I think).
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 25, 2022 at 03:52 PM
How considerate of the Ukrainians to say it in Russian. I shall try to remember the phrase Русский корабль, иди нахуй, in case of war on the Cam.
Posted by: Pro Bono | February 25, 2022 at 04:07 PM
Russia's penetration of the online world and other media is truly impressive:
In all, pro-Russian narratives on English-language social media, cable TV, and print and online outlets soared 2,580 percent in the past week compared to the first week of February, according to an analysis by the media insights company Zignal Labs. Those mentions cropped up 5,740 times in the past week, up from 214 in the first week of February, Zignal said.
And that's even without the current US rightwing's admiration for authoritarian strongmen:
The positive Russia comments are an extension of the culture wars and grievance politics that have animated the right in the United States in the past few years. In some of these circles, Mr. Putin carries a strongman appeal, viewed as someone who gets his way and does not let political correctness stop him.
“Putin embodies the strength that Trump pretended to have,” said Emerson T. Brooking, a resident senior fellow for the Atlantic Council who studies digital platforms. “For these individuals, Putin’s actions aren’t a tragedy — they’re a fantasy fulfilled.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/technology/pro-russia-pro-putin-sentiment-spreads-online.html
Posted by: GftNC | February 25, 2022 at 05:10 PM
Putin embodies the strength that Trump pretended to have
Putin is a thug. There is a kind of strength in that, but it’s limited.
I could be wrong, but I think all he has done here is reinforce Russia’s status as a pariah nation. Which won’t be good for them, in either the long or short terms. Whatever he visits on the Ukraine will redound to them, multiplied.
And, agreed, Trump couldn’t even rise to the level of thug.
Posted by: Russell | February 25, 2022 at 06:51 PM
Whatever he visits on the Ukraine will redound to them, multiplied.
Probably true, unfortunately for all the many anti-Putin anti-war Russians.
This whole situation is absolutely agonising to watch and listen to.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 25, 2022 at 06:56 PM
OT, but ran across this:
https://www.wfla.com/news/pinellas-county/pinellas-co-residents-arrested-for-role-in-capitol-riot/
and was unsurprised to read:
It’s my understanding that the Civil War established the principle that a state can’t simply decide to leave the Union.
Has it been established that a state can’t be kicked out?
“Just asking the question”, as folks seem to like to say these days.
Posted by: Russell | February 25, 2022 at 06:59 PM
This whole situation is absolutely agonising to watch and listen to.
Absolutely agree.
Posted by: Russell | February 25, 2022 at 07:00 PM
Has it been established that a state can’t be kicked out?
The Civil War established the precedent that a state can't leave if sufficiently many other states object strenuously enough.
Kicking out is probably not allowed by Article V, as no state's suffrage in the Senate can be reduced without their consent.
I take it as an open question as to whether a state can leave if enough states agree.
Posted by: Michael Cain | February 25, 2022 at 08:22 PM
Strength ?
Putin is cowering in some bunker while the President of the country he has invaded broadcasts from the streets of the capital under siege.
I know which is strength.
Posted by: Nigel | February 26, 2022 at 04:15 AM
What happens when a Russian ambassador encounters free media.
As an exposure of their lies and moral bankruptcy, it’s deeply satisfying.
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1497283552014213122
Posted by: Nigel | February 26, 2022 at 04:19 AM
Putin should be cowering - there must be a sizeable number of Russians thinking that assassinating him would be a patriotic act. However, he is famously paranoid, so no doubt very well defended and prepared.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 26, 2022 at 07:47 AM
This whole situation is absolutely agonising to watch and listen to.
Absolutely agree.
Yup.
Posted by: bobbyp | February 26, 2022 at 08:47 AM
So why was 2014 so concerning to Russia that it chose to invade? Given Putin’s rhetoric about Euromaidan as a Western-backed plot, the most obvious conclusion is that he was afraid that regime change and democratization in Ukraine might reach – – or at least set an example for — Russian society and destabilize Putin’s increasingly consolidated authoritarianism. Research on the color revolutions and on the third wave of democratization in the region shows that this neighborhood effect was real. In other words, it’s not NATO at its doorsteps that’s so concerning to the Kremlin, but political competition, because it threatens authoritarian stability and introduces prospects of democratization.
https://www.justsecurity.org/80343/russias-new-assault-on-ukraine-is-not-entirely-maybe-not-even-largely-about-nato/
Posted by: nous | February 26, 2022 at 02:09 PM
In other words, it’s not NATO at its doorsteps that’s so concerning to the Kremlin, but political competition, because it threatens authoritarian stability and introduces prospects of democratization.
It's both, of course, as I dare say everybody in Europe knows. I hadn't heard of justsecurity before, but on the basis of this I can only comment on them by quoting Basil Fawlty:
Specialist subject, the bleedin' obvious!
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 26, 2022 at 03:04 PM
Research on the color revolutions and on the third wave of democratization in the region shows that this neighborhood effect was real.
One sees the same thing with kids and games. They may be interested in watching others play some sport. But when they see someone their size, that as, who they can relate to, on the field playing, that's when they get interested in playing themselves. People need examples that they can relate to. But once they have that, they make some very interesting decisions about what they want their lives to look like.
Ignorance is bliss indeed . . . if you are a dictator and the ones kept in ignorance are your subjects.
Posted by: wj | February 26, 2022 at 03:04 PM
Today's example of memorable quotes from the war in Europe - Vladimir Zelensky on being offered transport out of Ukraine by the US:
I need ammunition, not a ride.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 26, 2022 at 03:08 PM
Correction: I should have said "Volodymyr Zelensky". And I only just discovered that he is Jewish, which put an interesting (and not coincidental) spin on Putin's jibe that the Ukrainian leadership are Nazis.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 26, 2022 at 03:13 PM
This war is probably going to become Ukraine's foundation myth. The response of the soldiers to the Russian warship. Zelensky refusing to leave his people. And on and on. They may have had internal divisions before, but this has brought them together as Ukrainians like nothing else could have. (Stalin's artificial famine just doesn't seemed to have resulted in much in the way of rallying cries.)
The Russians can unquestionably win the military battle . . . in the short term. For all that I suspect it is already proving harder than they were led to expect. But I expect that they will find, a decade down the road, that they have sown the wind and reaped the whirlwind. Putin will be gone from the scene by then, one way or another. But I expect he will live in Russian national mythology right up there with folks elsewhere like Richard the Third (albeit with far more causes).
Posted by: wj | February 26, 2022 at 03:19 PM
And I only just discovered that he is Jewish, which put an interesting (and not coincidental) spin on Putin's jibe that the Ukrainian leadership are Nazis.
He's also one of Ukraine's native speakers of Russian (as opposed to Ukrainian, which he sometimes struggles with). Which put some perspective on Putin's claims that Russian speakers are being picked on in Ukraine.
Posted by: wj | February 26, 2022 at 03:22 PM
But don't forget that Iossif Vissarionovich effing Stalin is still admired in Russia as a strong leader, as is Ivan IV, while Boris Godunov (victim of character assasination and a black legend) and Michail Gorbachev are considered at best as losers.
As for Jews and Nazis: quite a number of German Jews would have loved to be part of the Nazi movement and were sad, that they got excluded. Their opinion of the Eastern Jews (Ostjuden) was often not much better than that of the traditional antisemites either. And, as we can see with the extreme Right in Israel, it's quite possible to be a Jewish Nazi by just replacing one type of semite to hate with another.
This does not mean though that Putin's claims about denazification have any credibility.
Posted by: Hartmut | February 26, 2022 at 03:46 PM
Hartmut, you're right, of course. But somehow I doubt that Putin's antisemitism aspires to (much less attains) your level of nuance.
Posted by: wj | February 26, 2022 at 04:25 PM
Russian speakers are considerably freer in Ukraine than they are in Russia.
Posted by: Nigel | February 26, 2022 at 07:11 PM
Germany has decided today that it will supply arms to Ukraine.
Looks as though they are set to completely reassess the last two or three decades of foreign policy.
Posted by: Nigel | February 26, 2022 at 07:13 PM
On the Guardian's live site 20 minutes ago:
The international activist and hacktivist collective, Anonymous, has said Russian state TV channels have been hacked and are broadcasting “the reality of what is happening in Ukraine”.
The group earlier said they launched a cyberattack against Russia in order to support Ukraine.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 26, 2022 at 07:31 PM
Also 20 minutes ago:
Elon Musk says SpaceX’s Starlink satellites active over Ukraine
Elon Musk has said SpaceX’s Starlink satellites are now active over Ukraine after a request from Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov.
Fedorov tweeted Musk:
While you try to colonise Mars — Russia try to occupy Ukraine! While your rockets successfully land from space — Russian rockets attack Ukrainian civil people! We ask you to provide Ukraine with Starlink stations and to address sane Russians to stand.”
Musk responded:
Starlink service is now active in Ukraine. More terminals en route.”
Musk said on Saturday that the company’s Starlink satellite broadband service is available in Ukraine and SpaceX is sending more terminals to the country, whose internet has been disrupted due to the Russian invasion.
Internet connectivity in Ukraine has been affected by the Russian invasion, particularly in the southern and eastern parts of the country where fighting has been heaviest, internet monitors said on Saturday.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 26, 2022 at 07:34 PM
Worst media call of the week, the day before Putin went “full tonto”.
The problem is that the CIA told the US media to tell everyone that they knew exactly what Putin was saying and deciding, and that he had decided on a full invasion of Ukraine, so they have to call it an "invasion" otherwise this whole media/government act will seem like a fraud
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1496568414269288459
The truth is that the US administration’s public leaking of its knowledge Putin’s plans was probably the most effective use of intelligence since the Cuban missile crisis. It completely sabotaged Putin’s propaganda efforts to manufacture an excuse for invasion - in sharp contrast with what happened in Crimea in 2014.
Posted by: Nigel | February 26, 2022 at 08:22 PM
I don't understand what Putin is doing. I can't see any way this can work out well for him. At best, it will be like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and that is a horrible 'best'. Why didn't he just use his army to annex Donbas?
Posted by: Pro Bono | February 26, 2022 at 08:41 PM
Russian speakers are considerably freer in Ukraine than they are in Russia.
And thus Putin fears them for the same reason Xi hates/fears Taiwan: their own people might notice that democracy and the rule of law are exclusively for Western Europeans. If people just like us can have that, think the Russians and Chinese, why not us, too? Questions -- very dangerous to an autocrat.
Posted by: wj | February 26, 2022 at 08:54 PM
I don't understand what Putin is doing. I can't see any way this can work out well for him.
Putin sees his historic mission as restoring the glorious Russian Empire. Details (like, for example, it won't work) are irrelevant for a historic mission.
Posted by: wj | February 26, 2022 at 08:56 PM
Also, I think he thought Zelensky would fold, the Ukrainians wouldn't fight back like this, and the world wouldn't be quite so united. He's now in a rather difficult position, with no good choices, and can't lose face. There's also the possibility that, surrounded by yes-men, and increasingly (for a few years now) isolated, he may be not just out of touch with reality but a bit unhinged. None of which helps the Ukrainians, of course.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 26, 2022 at 09:26 PM
Putin's yes-men may also be feeding him a steady stream of reports on just how wonderfully everything is going. Nobody wants to be the first guy to break the news to a man like Putin that it's all gone sideways. Shoot the messenger is such a fine old tradition.
Posted by: wj | February 26, 2022 at 10:15 PM
Now are we well resolved; and, by God's help,
And yours, the noble sinews of our power,
Ukraine being ours, we'll bend it to our awe,
Or break it all to pieces: or there we'll sit,
Ruling in large and ample empery
O'er Ukraine and all her vast and fertile landscapes,
Or lay these bones in an unworthy urn,
Tombless, with no remembrance over them:
Either our history shall with full mouth
Speak freely of our acts, or else our grave,
Like Turkish mute, shall have a tongueless mouth,
Not worshipp'd with a waxen epitaph.
And let them say: I did it all for Russia
Reclaimed for her the mother of our cities.
But those who baa and impudently claim
"He did it all to keep his seat of power"
Let him then feel the height of our displeasure
And send him East the birch trees there to count
While here at home we call hom foreign agent.
Posted by: Hartmut | February 27, 2022 at 01:50 AM
Putin has put the Russian nuclear forces on high alert.
Posted by: Michael Cain | February 27, 2022 at 10:46 AM
Hmmm, a Jewish comedian, with a law degree, and also the winner of the Ukrainian version of Dancing with the Stars.
https://twitter.com/rexchapman/status/1497773564279275521?s=11
A man of many and varied qualities, some of which are only becoming apparent now.
Posted by: GftNC | February 27, 2022 at 10:47 AM
Putin has put the Russian nuclear forces on high alert.
The definition of doubling down.
Meanwhile, I did hear that Zelensky had agreed to meet and negotiate near the Belorussian border with no preconditions, but I can't find confirmation of that.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | February 27, 2022 at 10:51 AM
Zelenskyy and Lukashenka have agreed that the Ukrainian delegation will meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River,–Presidential Office informed at 15:30 EET.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497934920512987136
Posted by: Nigel | February 27, 2022 at 10:59 AM
The racism of certain media and politicians is depressing but entirely predictable - that idea of universal human rights seems incredibly hard to process...
https://twitter.com/marwasf/status/1497893249264111618?t=coSI5zx-snP0Oegq3FbV_A&s=19
Posted by: novakant | February 27, 2022 at 12:03 PM
https://digbysblog.net/2022/02/27/code-red-times-2/
https://www.thedailybeast.com/journalists-stefan-weichert-and-emil-filtenborg-mikkelsen-shot-while-reporting-in-ukraine?via=newsletter&source=Weekend
https://twitter.com/HedrickSmith1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497935516767039488%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdigbysblog.net%2F
"GO FUCK YOURSELF, conservative nationalists across the globe!"
Seems the best slogan available to aim, with all available aiming devices, against the conservative nationalist vermin in America, who will steal all future elections, with the support of our now fascist Supreme Court.
Bring as many Ukraiane refugees as possible into the United States to help us defeat and eliminate our 80 million domestic conservative Putins.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 27, 2022 at 12:05 PM
Zelenskyy and Lukashenka have agreed that the Ukrainian delegation will meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border
Sadly, it will be totally unsurprising if Zelensky shows up and Putin merely has him killed out of hard. "No preconditions" you know.
Posted by: wj | February 27, 2022 at 12:18 PM
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-06-11/trump-trashing-arms-control-treaties
https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/290217-scarborough-trump-asked-about-adviser-about-using-nuclear
The Hitler-Stalin Olympic Body Count Sweepstakes, so beloved by conservatives in their fucking arsenal of arguments claiming the Far Right (German and American far right conservative nationalists) was far less deadly than the other Far Right (Russian and Chinese conservative nationalists) killers, will look like like a hockey game score once the malignant genocidal Trump/Putin, with help from the British and European Far Right jackasses, brand of nationalist conservatism incinerates the world.
In two weeks, when Putin demands, under threat of nuclear Holocaust, that America re-instate Trump as President, or else, who's gonna fold?
The stinking vermin Republican Party, that's who.
Dreher and Buchanan, Christian murderers, and company will rationalize all of it as Putin throws them the bone of the freedom to carry out a final solution to America's LGBT/Woke "problem".
Go Fuck Yourselves.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 27, 2022 at 12:34 PM
Germany just increased their defense budget by 50%, as Putin's threats work to bring Trump's threats to NATO and Europe to full fruition.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 27, 2022 at 12:53 PM
Racist vermin conservative election-thieving CPAC 2022 Proceedings:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-cpac-russia-ukraine-invasion-rigged-election
CPAC 2023 Proceedings. Earlier would be optimal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQncV8eYOBI
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 27, 2022 at 01:02 PM
Then, of course, there will be the question of what to do with Lindsay Graham et al as they grovel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNcxj54qtyk
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 27, 2022 at 01:05 PM
I wonder if Putin told his troops that they would be greeted as liberators....
https://mobile.twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1497637169128693763
And especially this
https://mobile.twitter.com/aliostad/status/1497519061554630658
Posted by: wj | February 27, 2022 at 01:07 PM
Sadly, it will be totally unsurprising if Zelensky shows up and Putin merely has him killed out of hard.
It would be fairly surprising as he almost certainly won’t be there.
Ukraine has to make the effort - partly as an attempt to stop Belarus sending their army into Ukraine too*, partly since even the smallest chance of peace is worth pursuing.
*the deputy defence minister of Ukraine was a military cadet with his Belarus counterpart, so there’s some common ground.
Posted by: Nigel | February 27, 2022 at 01:40 PM
Germany just increased their defense budget by 50%, as Putin's threats work to bring Trump's threats to NATO and Europe to full fruition.
For over half a century, the nightmare of every Russian politician, and every Russian general, has been a resurgent German military. Way to go Vlad! Making dreams come true.
Posted by: wj | February 27, 2022 at 02:34 PM
For over half a century, the nightmare of every Russian politician, and every Russian general, has been a resurgent German military.
I see that the Germans have also said their next generation planes and tanks should be built in Europe, mostly by a German/France partnership. I'm sure that there are any number of US NATO planners who have had nightmares about Germany taking a French-like position on their role in NATO.
I know there are people here who have a much more informed opinion than mine. Which side would the UK take if France/Germany were to decide that Europe has to take the lead in NATO rather than the US?
Posted by: Michael Cain | February 27, 2022 at 02:57 PM
From looking at Google Streetview, Ukraine looks like a great place for bicycling touring though you may want to give it a pass at the moment...
Posted by: CharlesWT | February 27, 2022 at 03:07 PM
https://digbysblog.net/2022/02/27/where-is-all-that-oligarch-money/
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-trump-property/
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/09/gop-operatives-funneling-russian-money-trump-latest-foreign-straw-donor-scheme/
https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2018/05/08/how-putin-s-oligarchs-funneled-millions-into-gop-campaigns/
https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2017/08/03/gop-campaigns-took-7-35-million-from-oligarch-linked-to-russia/
Imagine that, Marco Rubio. Splainin' be hard for Cuban shitheels. Sometimes a cigar is a Russian cock in a mouth.
Mitt Romney's offshore accounts likely reside in a deposit box right next to Russian oligarch's deposits.
Meanwhile, more oligarchy that must be savagely executed:
https://www.bigcountryhomepage.com/news/billionaire-donates-98-of-funds-for-gov-greg-abbotts-texas-border-wall/
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2022/02/03/the-curious-timing-of-putins-aggression-toward-ukraine-%ef%bf%bc/
Why does Putin consider 80 million Republican conservative voters his owned American operatives and agents?
That's a lot of fifth column witches, McCarthy.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 27, 2022 at 04:09 PM
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/02/romney-putin-ukraine-invasion/622941/
And yet he defends the "fringe" parts of the Republican Party who want Ukraine disappeared.
That frat boy is the fringe of the subhuman Republican Party, but only to limit his taxes ...
... and no limits on his guns:
https://www.commoncause.org/democracy-wire/fbi-probing-russian-banker/
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 27, 2022 at 04:19 PM
Perhaps a cycling tour of North Cornwall. Umm... maybe not.
Posted by: ral | February 27, 2022 at 04:21 PM
If there is one thing I can assure you of: The average German (including the vast majority of people in the military) haven't the least desire to engage in war with any European country. Military missions elsewhere are also extremly unpopular and are at best barely tolerated provided Germany is not acting on her own but together with allies that do the actual fighting. And the government is well aware of that and not belligerent either. Chancellor Schröder (now in disgrace for closeness to Putin) once won against his conservative rival only because the latter would not publicly swear that he would not join Dubya's excellent Iraq adventure while Schröder made it absolutely clear that Germany would have no part in it. I still remember Dubya's handlers cursing about the post-WW2 program to get Germany (and Japan) rid of the spirit of militarism having been far too successful.
Apart from that: Even if we increase our military budget significantly, this would still not mean that we would be able to inconvenience anyone militarily for the time being. Poland would be far more capable to invade Germany and capture Berlin than German troops reaching Warsaw (except maybe as tourists using the regular civilian rail serivce).
Posted by: Hartmut | February 27, 2022 at 04:40 PM
Why do American conservatives and Putin despise Hillary Clinton:
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153
She helped Romney:
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/09/mitt-romney-hillary-clinton-secretary-state-trump-239370
After that phony, dick-sucking, two-faced frat boy went after her ... and the 47% who aren't privileged enough to send their money abroad to protect it from the taxation that pays for the weaponry that will be needed to kill Putin.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016-mitt-romney-hillary-clinton-is-a-phony/
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 27, 2022 at 04:44 PM
https://news.yahoo.com/former-russian-president-threatens-retaliate-143031562.html
The Trump/Farage playbook is making Putin make Russia great again.
We don't need no stinking diplomatic relations. We don't need no stinking treaties. We don't need no stinking trade with the rest of the world. We don't need no stinking embassies, unless of course the host country pays us for them. We don't need no stinking furriners.
We must slaughter and butcher the entire conservative nationalist movement around the globe, on every continent.
We coulda had Cuba and Iran more helpful than they are bound to be now that Trump made them again mortal forever enemies.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 27, 2022 at 05:16 PM
https://digbysblog.net/2022/02/27/they-love-him-they-really-love-him/
There will no locking her up. There will be no more demonizing of every fucking enemy of the Republican Party.
There will be only goddamned killing.
Conservatives could have taken the offer of kumbaya when it was on offer.
Go FUCK yourselves.
Posted by: nooneithinkisinmytree | February 27, 2022 at 05:25 PM