More stuff

by liberal japonicus

I thought I should open a thread for more talk. There's lots of Ukraine stuff to read about, and here are a few things that caught my eye

This Vox article about Putin's war strategy

If you aren't familiar with Bellingcat, check them out

I wouldn't put a huge amount of weight on this, but reading Putin's speech in the Guardian makes me think there might be something.

I'm obviously quite interested in China's take. I feel like they were taking a realpolitik line, so this pressure to be more clear is quite interesting. This earlier article notes the following interesting points.

Putin may have shown his respect for China by delaying the invasion until after the Winter Olympics, but China was not consulted about the invasion. Chinese diplomats ridiculed forecasts of an invasion, and left many citizens in situ. The deeper partnership agreement signed with Russia on 4 February, the opening day of the Beijing Winter Olympics, was predicated on no invasion. China benefits from the existing world order, and finds the instability unsettling. The prospect of Russia being cut out of the Swift payment system may benefit Chinese efforts to build an alternative, but the short-term disruption is worrying.

It was noticeable, for instance, on Friday that Russia offered high-level talks with Ukraine in Minsk, albeit on unacceptable terms, after a conversation between Putin and President Xi Jinping.

Before the vote, the Chinese foreign minister took three calls from the foreign secretary Liz Truss, the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, and Emmanuel Bonne, diplomatic counsellor to President Emmanuel Macron. China said in those calls it reiterated its support for non-interference, and the UN charter, but also expressed sympathy with Russia’s sense that it was threatened by Nato’s five successive rounds of expansion.

I recall all the claims about an 'Alliance of Autocracies' and how this was 'a pact against America'

But it's a hard habit to break. This Time article from 1 week ago carries the title "China's Support for Russian Aggression Toward Ukraine Confirms the West's Worst Fears" Man, no PLA troops streaming into Kyiv, and where are the Nicarauguan and Cuban paratrooper? Worse Red Dawn remake ever...

[that sarcasm shouldn't be taken that I don't take the invasion of Ukraine seriously. It's just that when you make cartoon villians, you aren't really going to understand what is happening.]

Anyway, a new space for your rants, have at it!

Comments

[wj]

The call from the Chinese historians, for China to denounce the invasion in no uncertain terms, is interesting. But, I think, unrealistic for one reason -- one which historians really should have picked up on.

In 5 letters: Tibet. Putin's justification (the real one) for his invasion is that Ukraine was part of Russia in the past, and so should always be. That is, exactly China's justification for invading Tibet. Xi might not want any negative comments about Russia's actions being thrown back at him.

[Nigel]

No, Putin’s rationale for the invasion is a belief that 1) Russia is a great power, and 2) only great powers have any real right to sovereignty.

The history stuff is just ahistorical bollocks that flows from that.

China’s autocracy has a somewhat different worldview, I think.

[Nigel]

Who among us has not played "Hava Nagila" on a piano with their genitals on stage and then gone on to lead their country against a foreign invasion?
https://twitter.com/AmySpiro/status/1498085663786344452

[wj]

Well some of our founders were men of not particularly prominent backgrounds. A brewer. A printer. Etc. Sure some rich planters and some lawyers, but some very mundane backgrounds, too.

[Nigel]

Of course - but I’m reasonably sure Washington never tried that.

[Girl from the North Country]

Well some of our founders were men of not particularly prominent backgrounds. A brewer. A printer. Etc. Sure some rich planters and some lawyers, but some very mundane backgrounds, too.

I may be (probably am) being exceptionally dim, but I found this comment to be incomprehensible following on from the one before. I know it's just me, because Nigel seemed to understand it, but wj if it isn't too much trouble can you explain your thought process??!!

(absolutely not snark)

[CharlesWT]

Of course - but I’m reasonably sure Washington never tried that.

Perhaps he used a harpsichord...

[Nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://digbysblog.net/2022/02/28/whats-happening-militarily/

The worst is ahead for Ukraine. It’s remarkable how much information we have and little we know.

But that is the nature of technology, gagging us with firehoses of fact/opinion/disinformation with no knowledge or wisdom filter.

Everyone gets to think they know as much as the experts, but the one thing the experts know is that we are reverse Socrates, we don’t know shit; but we think we know more than the experts, who themselves know they have only specialized in knowing one small part of the elephant in the room.

Anyway, in that vein, whadda do I know, except that movement conservatives are studying Putin’s fascism vis a vis how to destroy Portland, Oregon et al.

[nous]

I was reading wj's comment as being somewhat of a refutation of the Great Man theory of history, taking a sideways hop from great power to Great Man, with Putin as the middle term (what with Putin not seeing any difference between those two things).

But I could have misinferred that.

[wj]

Me: some of our founders were men of not particularly prominent backgrounds.

Gftnc: I found this comment to be incomprehensible following on from the one before.

The comment before alluded to the Ukrainian President's lack of the sort of background which one would expect to produce a great leader. (One might expect them to have gotten something like Trump. Albeit probably not as bad.) What I was noting (not original with me) was that a lot of America's Founding Fathers didn't have those sorts of stereotypical leadership backgrounds either.

Better?

[wj]

I was reading wj's comment as being somewhat of a refutation of the Great Man theory of history

Pretty much.

Like many simplistic theories involving human behavior, the Great Man theory is right just enough to provide an arguable basis, while being far from a comprehensive explanation. That is, sometimes a visibly great man does come along and change the course of history.

But far more often, the guys who change history just don't qualify (before their moment arrives) as great men. They're just ordinary guys and gals who find themselves caught up in a situation and rise to the occasion. Surprising everybody, frequently including themselves.

[Nigel]

In any event, he’s a remarkably capable (and courageous) leader.

wj is probably not that far from the mark, as if Ukraine escapes annihilation at the hands of Putin, then the events if these few days will provide their national foundation myths in a similar way to the American revolution.

[Nooneithinkisinmytree]

Take a side:

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2022/02/28/must-journalists-air-lies-about-ukraine/

[Girl from the North Country]

Ah, I see. I suppose I hadn't seen the Zelensky stuff as bearing on his "background" (a term which tends in England to smack of class, which your comment also could be interpreted as doing) more as his previous profession, or career. And we do here have some rather posh comedians, so that also muddied the waters. Thanks for the explanation, wj, and nous too for the alternative take!

[ral]

Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon 'em.

[wj]

The political blogs that I follow are overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine. No surprise there. But what is a bit unexpected is how many pro-Ukraine items are cropping up on my LinkedIn feed. If this not especially political group is there, any politician or political group (looking at you CPAC) who is praising Putin is going to have some serious challenges going forward.

[wj]

If you define a "great man" as one who, thru his own actions, reshapes the world, Vladimir Putin may qualify. After all, by his actions (visibly his, not those of the Russian government as a whole) we see

• The EU started expedited proceedings to make Ukraine a member.
• Even before that happens, the EU's foreign ministers went so far as to approving using E.U. funds to pay for countries’ shipments of weaponry to Ukraine — a step so outside the ordinary operations of the 27-nation bloc that some policymakers didn’t realize it was an option.
• A top leader of the German Green party — which grew out of an anti-nuclear power movement decades ago — declared an openness to keeping his country’s nuclear plants operating if it helped reduce reliance on Russian energy.
• Finland and Sweden, who have long held themselves apart from NATO, are seriously considering joining the defense alliance. A poll published Monday by Finland’s public broadcaster showed 53 percent of Finns favored membership.
• Switzerland, the mountainous redoubt of neutrality and hidden bank accounts, declared Monday it would freeze top Russians’ assets.

And that's just scratching the surface.

Yes, Biden and Blinken and the rest of the US diplomatic corps did a lot of grunt work over the past months to get the foundations laid (or, if you will, repaired). But the one critical catalyst, for rebuilding the Western alliance, for unifying various European countries, etc., was Putin. All the things he least wanted to see, he has brought to pass.

[CaseyL]

wj - Imagine Putin doing all these things with a complicit US by his side, and NATO either shattered or trying to regroup without US membership and backing. I'm pretty sure that would have had an impact on EU's ability to unite against him.

[wj]

CaseyL, absolutely. Putin must be deeply regretting not doing this a couple of years ago. He was probably correct that it would have not improved Trump's reelection chances. But now, his chance has passed him by.

Mind, he still has the raw military power to crush Ukraine. Without even resorting to nuking Kyiv. But holding it will be ruinous, not even counting the impact of sanctions on his economy. Long term, his prospects are not bright.

[nous]

Open-ish thread so:

https://www.propublica.org/article/if-the-kids-had-been-white-would-any-of-this-have-happened

Coming at the question of structural (i.e. systemic, not just aggregate) racism again.

This from a related story that gets mentioned to illustrate the concept in the main story:

We published a great example of this just a few weeks ago. Data ProPublica obtained and analyzed showed that Black and Latino drivers in Chicago were getting a disproportionate amount of tickets from traffic cameras. But traffic cameras are supposed to take racial bias out of the equation. So the reporters dug in to try to understand what the disparity might really be exposing. They found that pedestrian- and bike-friendly infrastructure like bike lanes, large sidewalks, medians and crosswalks do a whole lot to slow cars down and are much more prevalent in white neighborhoods.

That context allowed the reporters to find a very simple but damning truth: Some of the factors that contribute to ticketing disparities, such as wider streets and lack of sidewalks in low-income communities of color, also make those neighborhoods more dangerous for pedestrians, cyclists and even motorists.

And independent of the factors that caused the ticketing disparity, there was a clear effect. As that story says: “Black neighborhoods have been hit with more than half a billion dollars in penalties over the last 15 years, contributing to thousands of vehicle impoundments, driver’s license suspensions and bankruptcies, according to ProPublica’s analysis.”

[wj]

“Black neighborhoods have been hit with more than half a billion dollars in penalties over the last 15 years, contributing to thousands of vehicle impoundments, driver’s license suspensions and bankruptcies, according to ProPublica’s analysis.”

Some communities do lots of ticketing in order to fund spending in that local community. (Which can be a pain if you are just passing thru.)

Chicago seems to have found a different way to allocate their spending relative (geographically) to their income.

[CharlesWT]

..., contributing to thousands of vehicle impoundments, ...

Chicago has been running a vehicle impoundment scam for decades.

"WBEZ reported that Chicago has seized 250,000 cars since 2010, imposing $600 million in debt on owners. The news outlet also discovered that motorists' debts were sometimes inflated due to a combination of computer and data-entry errors. Chicago also happens to lead the nation in Chapter 13 bankruptcy filings.

Chicago seized cars for a litany of offenses, including drug possession, littering, graffiti, and playing music too loud. Even in cases where owners beat criminal charges, they were still forced to also go through the city's quasi-judicial administrative hearings court, where low standards of evidence and few procedural protections almost always ensured that defendants ended up in debt and bereft of their cars."
Chicago City Council Votes To Partially Reform Its Notoriously Harsh Vehicle Impound Program: A 2018 Reason investigation showed how Chicago's impound program ensnared innocent owners, stripped them of their cars, and soaked them in debt. (Jul 23, 2020)

[Michael Cain]

The EU started expedited proceedings to make Ukraine a member.

I know that the EU treaties have mutual defense provisions, but no more than that. If Ukraine were somehow admitted this afternoon, would the rest be obligated to start air strikes against the Russian troops in Ukraine?

[Pete]

"That context allowed the reporters to find a very simple but damning truth: Some of the factors that contribute to ticketing disparities, such as wider streets and lack of sidewalks in low-income communities of color, also make those neighborhoods more dangerous for pedestrians, cyclists and even motorists."

Whoa, whoa, whoa. This is starting to sound like some of that Cathode Ray Tubery I've been hearing about, and it's making me uncomfortable about the unimpeachable awesomeness of these great United States.

There should at least be a posted warning for the primary school kids reading this. We don't want them getting any ideas.

[wj]

I know that the EU treaties have mutual defense provisions, but no more than that. If Ukraine were somehow admitted this afternoon, would the rest be obligated to start air strikes against the Russian troops in Ukraine?

That particular action, as I understand it, is not about military defense. It is about tying Ukraine closer economically (and in its legal framework, and maybe even culturally) to western Europe. I.e. not to Russia. That is, precisely what upsets Putin already about Ukrainian's evolution these past couple of decades.

[wj]

This is starting to sound like some of that Cathode Ray Tubery I've been hearing about,

You mean the parts about how X-rays might show people unclothed? :-)

[Hartmut]

Unfortunately, Ukraine still has a major corruption problem that did not disappear just by electing a new president, and that should be an obstacle to EU membership. Not that the EU is corruption free - I'd rather say that the EU has enough trouble with the corruption it already has, so adding a new major case would be unwise. And the EU is a rather slow moving entity, where even 'expedited' would mean several years.
Something along the line of some other European states that did not join but have a close cooperation with the EU looks more like it.
All of this is longterm and of little importance to the current crisis at least in my opinion.

[wj]

the EU is a rather slow moving entity, where even 'expedited' would mean several years.

My expectation is for a formally recognized process to be put in train. One which includes addressing the corruption issue as a precondition to actual admission.

In short, a declaration of direction: away from Russia. (Any steps to reduce corruption being steps away from the Russian kleptocracy.)

[Girl from the North Country]

As the Russians close in on Kyiv, I find myself wondering whether Zelensky (who has been extraordinary and inspirational) might not be better getting a ride out after all, so as to be able to plan (and inspire) from outside, like De Gaulle. He is obviously a goner if he stays and the Russians take the capital, as now looks inevitable. God knows I hope I am wrong on all counts.

[Michael Cain]

That particular action, as I understand it, is not about military defense. It is about tying Ukraine closer economically (and in its legal framework, and maybe even culturally) to western Europe.

So near as I can tell, the EU countries are split into two camps. The eastern Europe members (eg, Poland and Romania) are asking for Ukraine to be allowed in under some yet-to-be-defined emergency procedure. The western Europe members are so far saying that entering the EU takes years because of all the conditions that must be met.

[Nigel]

Zelensky is unlikely to flee, from the interviews I’ve heard, FWIW.
The whole point of his political project was to reduce the distance between the governors and the governed.

[GftNC]

Yes, but think of the blow to Ukrainian morale if he is captured and killed, or tortured into making some kind of "confession". Jesus, it's too horrible to contemplate.

And speaking of Jesus, I see that:

Televangelist Pat Robertson said Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin was “compelled by God” in his decision to invade Ukraine, suggesting that Russia’s attacks are a precursor to an end-times battle in Israel..

There's no bad situation that can't be made worse by religious maniacs...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/01/pat-robertson-putin-god-russia-ukraine/

[Michael Cain]

Russia has responded to the EU sanctions by pulling their people out of Arianespace's facilities in French Guinea, and said no more Soyuz rockets for them. Arianespace uses a fair number of Soyuz because they can only manage a half-dozen or fewer Ariane 5 launches per year. There has been at least an implied threat that the European Space Agency will be denied access to Proton heavy lift launches from Russia as well.

Guess who has available heavy lift launchers? Yep, pretty much pick a month and Elon's got a Starlink launch (or two) scheduled that can be repurposed. And of course, when the Russians posed the question on Twitter, "Who's gonna keep lifting the ISS back to proper orbit, and provide capsules for emergencies?", Elon's response comment was just the SpaceX logo. Man, if Boeing's unmanned Starliner launch now scheduled for May doesn't go off perfectly, Elon's going to be sitting fat and happy.

[Nigel]

OneWeb is likely to drop Russian launchers in favour of Indian, I think ?
Putin has probably destroyed Russia’s increasingly shaky space business.

[Nigel]

This is quite an interesting discussion.
Contrast the journalist’s preoccupation with superpower politics with the historian’s interest in Ukraine itself.
https://www.democracynow.org/2022/3/1/nato_expansion_ukraine_russia_crisis

I’m quite a fan of Snyder.

[Nigel]

Anne Applebaum making similar points in The Atlantic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/
…As it turns out, nations are not pieces in a game of Risk. They do not, as some academics have long imagined, have eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals. Nor do human beings always react the way they are supposed to react. Last week, nobody who was analyzing the coming war in Ukraine imagined that the personal bravery of the Ukrainian president and his emotive calls for sovereignty and democracy could alter the calculations of foreign ministers, bank directors, business executives, and thousands of ordinary people. Few imagined that the Russian president’s sinister television appearances and brutal orders could alter, in just a few days, international perceptions of Russia…

[Girl from the North Country]

Not long after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, I joined a panel discussion in Germany about “the greatest threats to Europe.” Because of the timing, I talked about Russia and assumed the others would too. I was wrong. One of the other panelists called me a warmonger.

Very easy to imagine: it's happened here on ObWi too.

[nous]

In 2014 Europe had some faith in the US. Wonder what changed since then to erode that?

[wj]

I came across this from David Von Drehle
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/01/ukraine-zelensky-west-democracies-call-putin-bluff/

I was particularly taken by this:

Russia is a Potemkin power. It has zero seaworthy aircraft carriers — fewer than Thailand. The only one it owns has been out of commission for years and might not survive Russian “repairs.” A 70-ton crane fell on it. It caught fire in dry dock. Then the dry dock sank during a power outage.

Fewer aircraft carriers than Thailand?!?!? How pathetic is that for an ostensible "great power"?

[Pete]

"Fewer aircraft carriers than Thailand?!?!?"

To be fair, the same could be said for China, pre-2013.

But how many "floating casinos" do they have in development?

[Hartmut]

What actual use does Russia have for aircraft carriers to begin with? Imo for them only as objects of prestige. For actions outside their territorial waters submarines are far more useful.

Meanwhile, Faux Newts tries to blame it all on Greta Thunberg. Of course, 'it's only a joke'.

[novakant]

One of the other panelists called me a warmonger.

Well, maybe that is because Anne Applebaum is a warmonger:

Palestine / Journalists

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2002/01/targeting-radio-and-tv-stations.html

Iraq

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2002/10/you-can-t-assume-a-nut-will-act-rationally.html

Iran

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/22/AR2010022203528.html

Syria

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/what-exactly-nonintervention-has-produced-in-syria/2016/08/29/45826402-6e08-11e6-9705-23e51a2f424d_story.html

[Girl from the North Country]

A big-time interventionist, certainly.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340?utm_source=pocket-newtab

[Girl from the North Country]

Thanks, JDT. That seems persuasive, to me.

[GftNC]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/02/zelensky-russia-ukraine-assassination-attempt-foiled/

Excellent, but this was the Chechens, not the Wagner Group. Let's hope the info about the latter was wrong, or is being foiled as we speak (or write).

[GftNC]

Also rather cheering, if very surprising given Big Tech's normal behaviour:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/02/mykhailo-fedorov-ukraine-tech/

The Ukrainian leadership is looking more and more impressive.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

No baseball is this piece of shit world conservatives have ruined.

Why?

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/sports/2020/10/01/election-2020-sports-team-owners-support-republicans-millions/3562973001/

Never negotiate with subhuman republican conservatives, unless it is with loaded weapons and safeties off pointed at them.

They don't pay taxes. We pay them our taxes, the Putin fucking republican commies.

Everything they touch they fuck.

Baseball or Republicans.

Either kill the latter or I will kill the former.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

There needs to be a tally of how many humans Joe Manchin has murdered each week with his genocidal policies, between coal ash, global warming, and the cessation of the child tax credit:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3/2/2083369/-When-Biden-calls-for-unity-in-troubled-times-one-Democrat-sides-with-the-disloyal-opposition

[wj]

The most amazing bit of that article on the assassination attempt:

Ukrainian officials were informed by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), the Chechen special forces were killed Saturday on the outskirts of Kyiv, Danilov said.

“We are well aware of the special operation that was to take place directly by the Kadyrovites to eliminate our president. And I can say that we have received information from the FSB, who today do not want to take part in this bloody war,” Danilov said.

If Putin is losing the FSB, he's got far worse problems than just possibly losing a war he thought would be a cakewalk.

[Girl from the North Country]

Or this is rather brilliant Ukrainian disinformation! Either is perfectly conceivable.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

Just like the Flat Earth Society, the Conservative Movement has disciples all over the globe.*

*I stole the flat earth part of that from a passage in Patricia Lockwood's novel "No One Is Talking About This".

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

I wonder if traitorous, murderous Trump conservatives will call for massive U.S. increases in funding for the United Nations after this display of loyalty to the leader of the subhuman fascist Ukriane-hating worldwide conservative Republican Party movement.

https://twitter.com/brenonade/status/1499080459606704132?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1499080459606704132%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingpointsmemo.com%2Flive-blog%2Frussians-intensify-shelling-of-ukrainian-cities-as-nation-pleads-for-help

Ya think if our fascist gummint-crippling, vote-stealing Supreme Court declared Progressivism a carbon-based greenhouse gas pollutant they would permit the EPA to regulate us by killing us?

So Manchin sits his fat West Virgina cracker ass down with the other fascist yacht-owners on the other side, but the cleverly fake bipartisan lying frat boy Romney stays where he is with his vermin kind, including the twin armed witches.

Make a Mariupol of subhuman conservative republican America.

https://juanitajean.com/texas-begins-investigating-parents-of-trans-children/

"What do I do, then? What if I refuse to cooperate and they take my son?"

It's Texas. Shoot them.

Remember the fucking Alamo!

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

Corporations are people.

Governments are not people.

Fetuses are corporations inside non-persons in many states.

People are "THOSE people" to conservatives.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://www.balloon-juice.com/2022/03/02/oh-christ-not/

Point a gun at the arrogant, bullying dogshit in a suit.

Go fuck yourselves, conservatives.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://www.mediamatters.org/lou-dobbs/lou-dobbs-says-president-bidens-state-union-speech-could-have-been-soviet-it-could-have

It coulda been Nirvana:

https://www.mediamatters.org/ben-shapiro/ben-shapiro-likens-president-bidens-state-union-kurt-cobain-committing-suicide

The speech shoulda been this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQncV8eYOBI

Yeah, that again!

[wj]

The wheels of justice are grinding on:
Jan. 6 defendant Joshua James pleads guilty to seditious conspiracy

It's a plea deal, of course. (He was charged on a half dozen counts.) However,

In the plea agreement, James agreed that Rhodes “instructed [him] and others to be prepared and called upon to … use lethal force if necessary” to keep Trump in office,

That could bode ill for the others who have been charged with seditious conspiracy.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

It's Chris Mathews, but I'll let that go for the moment, with the proviso that he undergo a few painful months of re-education after the Republican Party and the conservative movement are wiped off the face of the Earth without the pointless courtesy of fucking elections:

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2022/03/03/memo-to-democrats-tie-putin-to-trump/

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

Two "t"s in Matthews, both standing for "two-timer".

[Russell]

I have a question:

I see that some of the property of some of the Russian kleptocrats and oligarchs is being seized. Yachts, etc.

These people have very very large investments in real estate in the US, the UK, and elsewhere. Is it possible (legally and otherwise) to seize any of that?

If Russian continuing to pursue this invasion means Putin’s friends lose billions and can’t run away to NYC or London, it may not be a very long war.

[Girl from the North Country]

Roman Abramovich has put Chelsea (FC) on the market, along with all his other UK assets. The BBC just called it a "fire sale". He said he would give the proceeds (from the Chelsea sale) to "victims of war in Ukraine". We shall see.

Fiona Hill says the risk to Putin doesn't come from the oligarchs, but from his inner, military circle. As I have said before, he is probably too savvy to let them too close to him.

[wj]

If Russian continuing to pursue this invasion means Putin’s friends lose billions and can’t run away to NYC or London, it may not be a very long war.

As I understand it, they are pretty tightly controlled, too. Not friends (let alone people he listens to) so much as lapdogs.

If a bunch of them got together, very risky as that would be, they might be able to have an impact. But for the moment, they seem to be his kleptocrats.

If they are out of the country, they might be able to live on their wealth outside Russia. (Albeit with some significant risk of assassination.) But if they are in-country, they may be just as stuck as everybody else. They might want to get rid of them, but their ability to do so is in question.

[Girl from the North Country]

“These are not the kind of guys who have yachts off Monaco, palaces in Paris or anything like this,” Hill explained. “These are people who are very much rooted in Russia itself and I don’t think they’re too worried about all of these sanctions and everything that’s cut off, because they’re not invested in the West. They’ve really got that bunker siege mentality — fortress Russia.”

Members of this small circle are who Putin “probably does have to worry about” if “it looks like Russia is losing,” said Hill, an intelligence analyst under former President George W. Bush and Barack Obama who later served on the National Security Council under Donald Trump. Hill was an important witness during Trump’s first impeachment.

“I don’t think they care about the world of public opinion,” Hill added. “But if there’s not any movement on the ground, if that great convoy of tanks just basically runs out of gas and is just left there, and if they have to kind of lay waste to Ukraine to basically get a success … you might then start to get a backlash from those people who are thinking this has not gone as they intended.”

[wj]

It may be that the best chance to get rid of Putin would be if his fellow enthusiasts for taking over Ukraine, especially the ones in the military, decide that it's his fault that the invasion is not going smoothly. Their choice for a replacement might be no better. But being new, he wouldn't have his hands on the levers of power so tightly. And thus might get replaced in turn, but this time someone better

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/russian-money-flows-us-real-estate-rcna17723

Welp, first, American money masters must be stopped in their tracks in their multi-decade efforts to turn our country into the criminal money laundromat of the world.

Pregnancy and sexual choice and Texan's plumbing fixtures are no longer private affairs in pig fucking conservative Russoamerica, but the big money is, especially as it finds it way into republican political unmarked postal boxes.

If fetuses were dollars, conservative vermin filth would be rushing to house them at Mar-a-Lago, the Ritz, and in Mitt Romney's offshore cabanas.

But fetuses, once born, are no longer "people" to American conservative money master kleptocrats, unless the former incorporate and can suck enough conservative dick to pay the rent with child tax credits, or Joe Manchin can put them to work laundering coal ash through their diaper services.

Take your pick on a cite. We know where to start. Start with executions:

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=do+russians+own+apartments+in+trump+properties

Once the fascist murderous conservative Supreme Court makes up some shit that prevents the EPA from protecting ANY of the environment, conservative vermin law firms around the country will file cases removing the Treasury Department and the IRS and the Federal Reserve rules regulating money.

And of course, the Justice Department will be forbidden from investigating and regulating the Trump Presidency, because the word trump was never explicitly cited in Federalist Paper Number Fuck-all.

Democratic Presidents of course will remain fair game for insurrection and violence.

That's going to fucking change.

I'm doing my best to fill up this new space for rants.

[Girl from the North Country]

It may be that the best chance to get rid of Putin would be if his fellow enthusiasts for taking over Ukraine, especially the ones in the military, decide that it's his fault that the invasion is not going smoothly.

They have to get close to him first. He's taking care they don't get the chance.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

"They have to get close to him first. He's taking care they don't get the chance."

Putin keeps at least six umbrella lengths away from all comers.

He has a guy, probably a former Trump cabana boy, to lick all doorknobs, pre-taste his borscht, and pre-wear his underpants.

[Snarki, child of Loki]

I, for one, look forward to someone in Putin's inner circle hurling an ice-ax across the room and embedding it in his skull.

History rhymes, so I hear.

[Girl from the North Country]

Zelensky just gave a press conference in which he said that the Russian troops are carrying portable crematoria, so they can burn their dead soldiers and not have images of their dead bodies shown to the Russians back home. He made the point that they are carrying crematoria which they know may be used on themselves. He said (according to the translator) "I am embarrassed to say this is happening in the 21st century."

[Girl from the North Country]

History rhymes, so I hear.

Is there an acronym like LOL, but for a particularly sick, gallows-type laugh?

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article258649648.html

Republican Party Cuban refugees should be content to be cleaning Russian toilets in piece of shit republican Florida rather than in Havana.

https://nypost.com/2022/03/02/trump-calls-ukraine-invasion-a-holocaust-but-doesnt-condemn-putin/

If Putin lets loose his Plutonium 210 and Novichok on Trump's person and his 80 million sheep for the latter's mealy-mouthed apostasy (only Susan Collins could appear more "concerned" while examining her gun collection) against the former (maybe Putin will realize he was just another Michael Cohen in Trump's world-wrecking campaign), I'd let Putin have Hungary for his service to America.

[wj]

"They have to get close to him first. He's taking care they don't get the chance."

Unless he is eating the Russian equivalent of MREs, there are ways to get to him even if he is maintaining physical isolation. Just for example.

For that matter, the generals presumably have rather more troops than however many security people Putin has around him. Messy, but doable if they decide it must be done. ("Must" as in, they figure that otherwise he is going to throw them under the bus for the failure of the invasion.)

[Michael Cain]

For that matter, the generals presumably have rather more troops than however many security people Putin has around him. Messy, but doable if they decide it must be done.

In one of the old Tom Clancy novels, set while it was still the Soviet Union, the Army captures the top commissars by simply running rifle squads through the Kremlin until they get to the right room where they're meeting. IIRC, in that one, the generals were motivated by the top civilians being about to order the use of tactical nukes.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-bannon-oath-keepers

Putin and Trump could take the former United States for their murderous own without firing a shot.

It's incumbent on all true loyal Americans to make the air around all traitorous Republicans and conservatives black with bullets.

To such an extent that Clarence Thomas decides bullets are a greenhouse gas and maybe he needs a little of that EPA protection.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/02/24/media-fox-biden-blame/

Let's have a Gutfeld and Zelensky comedian standup standoff down at Graham Greene's Comedy Club.

FOX's Gutfeld's mother in law was stuck in Ukraine until the other day.

What was SHE doing there?

Giving away Ukraine armor positions to Russian forces?

She returned alive.

Now, THAT's funny.

It could have been even more hilarious.

[Girl from the North Country]

Unless he is eating the Russian equivalent of MREs, there are ways to get to him even if he is maintaining physical isolation. Just for example.

It's possible you are underestimating his potential for cruelty and brutality. It would be easy to have family hostages being held for his chefs etc. And as for his generals having more troops, he may of course have his finger on the Russian equivalent of the nuclear football. Don't forget that, even if he is going crazy, he is a ruthless, crafty, amoral KGB officer. He would know how to take steps to safeguard himself, or at least how to make taking him out catastrophically dangerous.

But all this being said, there may still be a way. We must hope, because try as I might, I cannot think of a way to give him a facesaving way out.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://digbysblog.net/2022/03/03/strap-in/

Right from the Trumpian conservative movement playbook.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3809190-global-fertilizer-reserves-as-low-as-weve-ever-seen-cf-industries-ceo-says

The Republican Party conservative movement has millions of tons of the stuff stored in their wholly-owned subsidiary's warehouses, McVeigh Childcare Supplies and Explosives.

They will deliver directly to the gummint via Canadian trucks or, if you require fertilizer in volume, via Rupert's Murdoch's and Donald Trump's mouths.

For pure organic horseshit compost on demand, pay a visit to Lindsay Graham's money honey, Maria Bartiromo.

Susan Collins will make you fill out a form stating your reason for blowing up the government, which she will frown upon until the statute of limitations is up.

Texas has been whoreding the stuff for decades, but now purchasers must undergo a genital inspection.

If Dan Patrick gave you the Christian genital herpes because wearing gloves during the checkup was one jackboot too far for him, you advance to the front of the line.

[Michael Cain]

And as for his generals having more troops, he may of course have his finger on the Russian equivalent of the nuclear football.

I have read that the nuclear code signals go to the military, who issue the actual orders. If I were a group of Russian general officers staging a coup, I wouldn't do so until I knew that the people controlling those orders were on my side.

[Girl from the North Country]

Interesting and good point, Michael Cain.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

Broadcast from the guest suite at Mar-a-Lago, though the lack of a taco bowl makes things a little hazy:

https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1499150073632075780

Gotta say, though, his yacht looks slightly smaller than that 80 ton dinghy Bezos' tows behind his big swinging floating cigar, but international capitalists do like to measure.

[Girl from the North Country]

Yes, Germany and France have both been seizing oligarchs' yachts. According to today's Times:

Michael Gove has ordered officials to draw up legislation that would give the government powers to seize British property owned by Russian oligarchs without paying them compensation.

The controversial move would extend the UK sanctions regime to allow ministers not just to freeze the assets of those with close links to President Putin’s regime but also to take control of their property.

Officials have been told to work up policy options for ministers within weeks. One proposal is to include the new power as an amendment to the economic crime bill that was published on Monday.

However, any attempt to enforce a seizure would certainly be challenged in the courts because it goes far beyond the scope of the present sanctions regime.

The government only has the power to seize property or other assets, without paying compensation, if it was derived from the proceeds of crime.

Ministers can also impose compulsory purchase orders — for big development projects like HS2 — but this requires compensation.

At present, anyone who is sanctioned has their assets frozen, so cannot sell their property. But they can live there and when sanctions are lifted they regain their rights in full.

Senior government sources admitted that even if the legislation were passed any attempt to enforce it would certainly be challenged in the courts.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a39312648/ukraine-stinger-missiles-united-states-russia/

I'm so relieved that both sides are trying to kill me.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

Make America Great Again was the declaration convening a fully nuclear World War III that will incinerate a third of the Earth's human population, and those will be the lucky ones.

Thanks nationalist conservative nostalgic subhuman vermin of all countries.

[Hartmut]

In one of the old Tom Clancy novels,...

Red Storm Rising, to be precise.
The general pretends to go along with the nuke scheme but demands that He controls them (officially because he is the one who knows how to use them most effectively). When that is secured he starts his coup together with a highranking KGB officer who was the one to engineer the war in a way that makes the Soviets look to be the victim of Western terrorists. The guy meets an ending that could be called karmic, were it not carefully arranged.
A final irony in the book is that during the coup for a few hours the nuclear codes are lost, which would have made a winning nuclear first strike by the West possible (had the fact been known).

I liked that book. It had a longterm side effect in getting me interested in Sergei Eisenstein which brought me in contact with a certain Berlin cinema which in turn opened my cinematic horizon significantly. In other words that old cold war thriller was a major step in making me a cinephile.

[wj]

I understand that Ukraine and Russia are the two biggest exporters of wheat (and perhaps some other grains) in the world. I wonder if our government has considered dropping the various programs we have where we pay farmers NOT to grow those grains. Just to keep that particular supply chain loaded during the coming year. We may not have a lot of quick options to address Russia's part of the global oil market. But that's not Russia's only export.

[CharlesWT]

I understand that Ukraine and Russia are the two biggest exporters of wheat (and perhaps some other grains) in the world.

In Ukraine, their operations are big enough that they're developing equipment like this.

"Behind the NEXAT is a completely new arable farming system that has only been made possible thanks to the latest technical advancements. The focal point of the system is the 1100-hp NEXAT tractor, which can also be described as a wide-span carrier vehicle with interchangeable bodies."
NEXAT: The All-New Revolutionary 1100-HP Tractor | Harvesting in the Ukraine (YouTube)

[Michael Cain]

I understand that Ukraine and Russia are the two biggest exporters of wheat (and perhaps some other grains) in the world.

By average over 2017-2021, for wheat Russia was first and Ukraine fifth. For corn, the US first and Ukraine fourth. For barley, the EU first and Ukraine fourth. Ukraine definitely punches above their weight.

Going to be a bad year this year. If they get to plant at all, they're going to be short on fertilizer and the ports are shut.

[Nigel]

"The ultimate goal of Putin's invasion into Ukraine is to free Ukraine from Ukrainian people.
In short, his goal is genocide,"–advisor to Internal Affairs Ministry of Ukraine Herashchenko wrote today
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1499495022810611716

Looking at the footage from bombarded cities today, and considering Putin’s clearly expressed determination to destroy the state, that is not entirely hyperbole.

[Nigel]

Over a million refugees already.
That figure is quite likely to double and double again.

[Snarki, child of Loki]

Comrade CharlesWT:
In Ukraine, their operations are big enough that they're developing equipment like this.

"Behind the NEXAT is a completely new arable farming system that has only been made possible thanks to the latest technical advancements....

But will they be able to increase tractor production in the next Five Year Plan?

[Nooneithinkisinmytree]

Nigel, it’s horrific. Europe seems to be stepping up, against all fascist advisories.

I look forward to the Texas Russo Orthodox Government having a fit when they reach our southern border and demanding their genitals be examined and any mislaid miscarriages be investigated for feminazi skullduggery.

You gotta say this for Texans: they know their plumbing.

[Nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/russia-rt-america-shutters-ukraine-invasion

That’s Ok, whatever Putin can’t do to destroy the world and America, FOX, OAN, Breitbart, Bannon, Truth Social, the RNC, CPAC, and the conservative movement can do better.

Tell me what all of the guns are for again?

It can’t be just to shoot lesbian PTA leaders.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://digbysblog.net/2022/03/03/its-the-groypers-party-now/

America is so great and free and politically correct that we can’t kill those who are going to kill us.

Nice job, racist Founders.

[Nooneithinkisinmytree]

Mitt Romney and Joe Manchin can’t win without the subhumans:

https://digbysblog.net/2022/03/03/its-the-groypers-party-now/

They know it and it’s time everyone else does too.

The only difference between Rick Scott’s murderous policies and McConnell’s and Romney’s murderous policies is Scott tells you what they are upfront.

[Nigel]

The madmen shelled Europes largest nuclear power plant last night.
Disaster seems to have been averted for now.

The scale of the irresponsibility, along with the sheer evil of the actions ordered by Putin is almost incomprehensible.
He’s also threatened nuclear was should anyone try to stop him.

[wj]

The scale of the irresponsibility, along with the sheer evil of the actions ordered by Putin is almost incomprehensible.

There can be a tactical advantage in convincing an opponent that you are crazy. And thetefore might do anything, whether a rational oponent would or not.

The problem comes when the opponent actually is crazy. So far, it remains possible that Putin isn't crazy, merely utterly lacking in morals or ethics. But that's rapidly becoming a distinction without a difference.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

Not that it did any good to read Mein Kampf in the 1920s, but here's another shot at reading the words of the traditionalist, nationalist, fascist conservative republican movement vermin consuming our world and who must be slaughtered and butchered if decent humans can hope to govern with decent government.

As it is becoming now in pigfucker conservative America, IF my ballot to vote for my representation IS counted, or even delivered, my chosen representation will not be permitted to govern as my fucking vote sees fit because governing itself will be fucking illegal, even IF I win an election against all of the stolen election odds stacked against my way of life by conservative genocidal shits.

https://www.amazon.com/War-Eternity-Return-Traditionalism-Populist/dp/0141992034/ref=pd_lutyp_rtpb_6/135-9305755-5169662?pd_rd_w=aD5hD&pf_rd_p=6c79b04b-ecbc-4460-96b6-0cddfcbe676e&pf_rd_r=F8MEDES6AXHHV7X5RFMP&pd_rd_r=b8b89e5c-9775-4fe9-8fdb-be3b04b79869&pd_rd_wg=M1qLc&pd_rd_i=0141992034&psc=1&asin=0141992034&revisionId=&format=4&depth=1

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/feature/supreme-court-administrative-state-agency-power-conservative

https://www.amazon.com/American-Empire-Should-Destroyed-Immanentized/dp/1891469436/ref=sr_1_2?crid=2GSLUZ6BAFZP4&keywords=dugin&qid=1646403306&sprefix=dugin%2Caps%2C111&sr=8-2

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/meet-putins-bannon/

The Ukrainian and Russian people have a lot of killing to do in self defense to defeat Evil, and soon.

So do decent Americans against our homegrown conservative nationalist domestic Evil.

How many divisions does Amy Coney Barrett have, motherfuckers?

[GftNC]

Following our previous discussions, from today's Times

President Zelensky has survived at least three assassination attempts in the past week, The Times has learnt.

Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Ukrainian president — mercenaries of the Kremlin-backed Wagner group and Chechen special forces. Both have been thwarted by anti-war elements within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).

Wagner mercenaries in Kyiv have sustained losses during their attempts and are said to have been alarmed by how accurately the Ukrainians had anticipated their moves. A source close to the group said it was “eerie” how well briefed Zelensky’s security team appeared to be.

It's behind a paywall, but the full article is here:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zelensky-survives-three-assassination-attempts-in-days-xnstdfdfc?

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2022/03/04/another-scheme-to-curtail-voting-rights/

[wj]

If the state courts have no authority to overturn state laws which violate the state cinstitution, then clearly it it time to revisit Marbury v. Madison. After all, the US Constitution doesn't actually mention a right of judicial review....