Are we screwed yet? Yet another brick in the wall

by liberal japonicus

So many idiots, so little time. 3 economists tell us that the lockdowns had no effect on the death rate. I don't like to crap on other fields of study, but if you aren't going to include all the inputs (like anti-vaxx sentiments and open resistance to measures), seems a bit off, eh? I note that the study was just European and US situations (imagine that!) and did this:

Researchers excluded nearly 83 studies for consideration — including some that supported the efficacy of lockdowns. The most notable of which is a 2020 study published in the journal Nature that concluded that European lockdowns helped avert between 2.8 and 3.5 million deaths in the first months of the pandemic.

The Johns Hopkins researchers only wanted to study death rates: They discarded any study that examined the effect of lockdowns on hospitalizations or case rates.

ffs...

Comments

[liberal japonicus]

This via LGM

Still, in a state where less than two-thirds of the population 5 and above are fully vaccinated, it boggles the mind that the government would shut down a website aimed at making it easier for people to get their shots. No one knows what the next phase of the pandemic will look like—whether the virus will fizzle out entirely, or return with a vengeance in the form of another variant. But if the last year has taught us anything, it’s that it’s in our best interest to make it as easy as possible to vaccinate as many people as possible.

Geez, I wonder why these lockdowns don't work?

[hairshirthedonist]

A friend posted something on a social-media "platform" (heh...) about Denmark ending most COVID restrictions and noting that this likely meant that the pandemic was soon to end, particularly because Denmark is full of libs and soshulists, so it wasn't because of their politics.

He didn't mention that over 80% of their population is fully vaccinated and over 60% have had their boosters, whereas we Muricans are just over 60% fully vaccinated and less than 30% boosted.

I would predict that the death rate in the US will continue to be much higher than that in Denmark, which will prove to some people that COVID restrictions are what's really killing people.

[hairshirthedonist]

https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/02/03/johns-hopkins-study-on-lockdowns/

[JanieM]

lj and hsh -- Someone I'm close to started citing that Johns Hopkins study yesterday and I was beside myself. I was hoping I could get some particulars about exactly which kind of trash it is, and you have provided me with some. Thank you!

[hairshirthedonist]

I was surprised to find the Snopes article, and at how thoroughly it ripped the "study" to pieces.

[JanieM]

I know what my friend is going to say, that Snopes itself isn't reliable....

Sigh. Still, the actual contents of the ripping might make a dent.

[wj]

Researchers excluded nearly 83 studies for consideration — including some that supported the efficacy of lockdowns.

A critical part of getting the desired results from a "scientific" study or "statistical" analysis is careful upfront selection of the data.

[hairshirthedonist]

Still, the actual contents of the ripping might make a dent.

Even if you only consider Snopes to be as reliable as, say, Wikpedia, they at least point you to where they got their information. Mostly, they're aggregating information from other sources in a way that's transparent and easily digested. And they make (gasp...!) corrections (cue scary music).

I'm sure there's an unsourced photo with some text superimposed on it floating around on facebook that's more reliable, though.

[Michael Cain]

20 years from now there will be a rash of PhD dissertations in the social sciences looking at the effective contact rate during western country "lockdowns." Which will come to the conclusion that the effective rate was the same across all of the quite mild restrictions imposed.

[Snarki, child of Loki]

"I don't like to crap on other fields of study"

But crapping on economists that are pretending to be virologists?

Tots appropriate. They can complain when they predict 8 of the last 3 pandemics.

[wj]

But crapping on economists that are pretending to be virologists?

Tots appropriate.

Although not as appropriate as crapping on politicians that pretend to be economists, virologists, statisticians, etc., etc., etc. (A far more target rich environment, admittedly.)

[Pro Bono]

The first thing to do with this report is to find the original paper.

The second thing is to read it.

The big problem here is that correlation between "lockdown" (what's that exactly) and mortality (with what time lag?) is just not well enough defined. The paper is no more than an attempt to deny that A causes B by finding a reason to exclude most of the evidence that A causes B.

[nous]

I don't think crapping on economists trying to apply their tools to fields for which they have no understanding counts as crapping on economists, so much as it is crapping on disingenuous hacks who happen to be economists.

This study is clearly an exercise in motivated thinking and cherry picking.

[liberal japonicus]

This is separate, but with regard to the Canadian trucker protest, this is interesting

https://twitter.com/TraceyKent/status/1488917909036490754

Previous reporting said that the Ottawa city government and police were hesitant to enforce laws
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/ottawa-police-city-lawyers-considering-court-order-to-end-convoy-protests-1.5764263

The date of that was 2 Feb and the wikipedia page
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Convoy_2022
says that the protest started 5 days before that (29 Jan). The idea of cancelling their insurance is nice, but was the refusal to act just an example of Canadian Nice or because, like the use, the police sympathize with the protestors? Any Canucks here with an insight?

[novakant]

OT UK stuff:

Since the Telegraph has now turned against Johnson I think it's fair to say he's a dead man walking.

[novakant]

But anybody rejoicing at this news should consider that his successor will probably be a full-on neo-liberal (Sunak) or a flag-waving, culture-warrior.

Johnson is a despicable person, but his populist instincts and apparently his wife kept him from going too far down either road.

The Telegraph readers who want him gone, regard Theresa May as a traitor and Johnson as too woke...

[wj]

The Telegraph readers who want him gone, regard Theresa May as a traitor and Johnson as too woke...

Be more useful to know what his back benchers think. They, after all, are the ones who will actually vote him out and someone else in. Are they looking for a flat out culture warrior? Maybe the UK folks here know.

[bobbyp]

Boris Johnson? You mean Boris Johnson the liar?

[liberal japonicus]

Jonathan Pie is good, but what's amazing is the actual ministers, like Nadine Dorries, doing this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMFWT8HzsPg

[Pro Bono]

I can't speak for Telegraph readers, but generally the UK Conservative party has not much in common with Trumpist culture warriors. The Trumpists are to be found in UKIP, and, having lost their single issue by winning it, no longer hold much sway.

Conservative backbenchers admire BoJo's popular touch, and are willing to put up with his dishonesty and laziness so long as he wins elections. But they are genuinely angry about his partying while they and their constituents were obeying lockdown rules.

[liberal japonicus]

Ahh, those quaint Asians

https://asiatimes.com/2022/01/as-omicron-surges-korea-goes-low-tech/

These Covid-management systems have earned South Korea widespread global kudos. They have also adroitly carried the nation through the pandemic with one of the lowest death rates in the developed world. All without a single lockdown, local or national, being mandated.

[novakant]

generally the UK Conservative party has not much in common with Trumpist culture warriors. The Trumpists are to be found in UKIP, and, having lost their single issue by winning it, no longer hold much sway.

I think that's a far too rosy view of the Tories, rather UKIP has successfully shifted the Tory party towards the right, rather than the Tories having neutered it - Brexit was a cultural war if there ever was one and of course predated Trump (some called it a dry run).

The consequences for society are lasting and the Tories are pursuing all sorts of Trumpian policies, e.g. the war on the BBC and the xenophobic immigration and asylum policy.

Now, as I said, maybe people will slowly get tired of all this when they realize it doesn't solve their problems but exacerbates them, and we might get Sunak or Hunt, but they will likely just continue some sort of austerity paired with a continued selling off what's left of the nation's silverware.

So, in short, we're f@cked.

[liberal japonicusq]

Following up on novakant's point

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-brexit-party-impact/

Therefore, Nigel Farage decided to play the long game by competing strategically in the election only in opposition seats, asking Brexit candidates to stand down in Conservative-held seats.

and

Even where treated as ‘pariahs’, however, minor rivals can still impact the policy agenda indirectly, by forcing the mainstream parties to adjust their stances in response to new concerns, in this case by parroting issues of nationalism and immigration. Johnson’s unprincipled ambitions, and the machinations of the ERG, made the Conservative Party ripe for a hostile take-over by populist forces. In this regard, both major parties have absorbed the cancer of Euroscepticism, mobilized by Farage and the ERG Conservatives, and injected this into the mainstream of the body politics.

It would be wonderful to believe that Farage's lack of electoral success demonstrates that he has been neutered. Put it would not really match up with reality: The Tories have swallowed that portion of the electorate and have no qualms about letting it guide them.

[Girl from the North Country]

IMO, Pro Bono is partly right, and novakant is partly right. Most Tories are (not yet) Trumpian, but the Tory party is split, and I cannot give an estimate of what proportion are unprincipled populists, what proportion are more like what we used to call "one nation Tories", and what proportion even vaguely principled fiscal conservatives. Given what is happening throughout the world, and even (given how many Labour voters voted Leave) in the rest of UK society, none of this gives me too many grounds for optimism. Au contraire.

I am constantly reminded of my favourite limerick:

A lady born under a curse
Would drive forth each day in a hearse.
From the back she would wail
Through a thickness of veil:
"Things do not get better, but worse!"

[wj]

From lj's article on covid in Korea:

Utilized by a generally obedient public who have a high familiarity with personal digital gadgetry, it is an impressive feat of systems integration.

So, not workable here. Too strong a libertarian bent (i.e. nothing like a "generally obedient public"). And not only no systems integration (see our earlier discussion on integrating social media systems), but probably not the systems to integrate either.

[nous]

I think the question at hand is "generally obedient to whom?"

I ask that in light of this piece at the LARB in which Christopher Newfield takes on a lot of public perceptions of the problems in Higher Education (worth their own discussion IMO).

https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/grotesque-inequity-christopher-newfield-on-higher-education/

The center section where Newfield and the interviewer discuss Emerson is really interesting to me:

Emerson designed a type of subjectivity that allowed previously mostly self-employed professional middle-class people to enter into large organizations and preserve their sense of autonomy but still submit to authority. That’s what I term submissive individualism — it’s the normative, white, middle-class individualism that we call “liberal individualism,” which is actually submissive to higher powers. Everybody thinks that Emerson is saying, “Self-reliance,” and instead he’s saying, “Submit. Obey!”

It seems really blinkered to look at these populist contrarian eruptions all over and see them as individualistic responses when they are being driven by such a strong element of strongly tribalistic identity politics.

[nous]

That piece apparently left a strongly strong impression on me.

[liberal japonicus]

So, not workable here.

what nous said. And to follow up on that, for everyone who flagged the above article to explain to everyone else why a carefully curated set of studies giving a particular conclusion, what are _they_ demonstrating general obedience to?

I'm sure we will have this sorted in time for the next pandemic...

[liberal japonicus]

Should do my morning reading before commenting

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/06/britain-covid-story-boris-johnson-prime-minister

As Johnson flounders, other politicians have come up with their own versions of that basic narrative – as happened last week, when Starmer responded to Sue Gray’s “update”. He spoke about people who followed the rules and restrictions now being consumed by “rage, by grief and even by guilt”, and the need for them to “feel pride in themselves and their country, because by abiding by those rules they have saved the lives of people they will probably never meet”.

But on the political right, the narrative vacuum Johnson has left is being filled by stories that feel toxic and dangerous. In some Tory circles, any idea of a dutiful public making sacrifices for the common good is at risk of being replaced by something very different: the belief that lockdowns and restrictions were simply a failed experiment, and what motivated people to follow what the Conservative backbencher Steve Baker recently called “minute restrictions on their freedom” was not a willing spirit of collective sacrifice, but a state that had decided “to bully, to shame and to terrify them”. On the wilder fringes of the internet, similar ideas are expressed by the irate keyboard warriors who insist that those of us who supported Covid rules were dupes and “bedwetters”.

Johnson’s endless disgrace will only fuel those stories. We already know that around £14bn of public money was wasted on fraudulent Covid loan claims and unused personal protective equipment. The apparently imminent public inquiry into Britain’s experience of the pandemic will doubtless unearth more evidence of such misrule and incompetence. As people’s fury about Downing Street parties festers, these things may yet be the perfect raw material for a grimly familiar tale that would perfectly suit Nigel Farage and his ilk: the idea that the pandemic really boiled down to yet another betrayal of the people by a rotten elite, and that most of the restrictions and rules were never really necessary in the first place. Its effects could go well beyond politics, into people’s basic wellbeing: if this story catches on, it may only deepen the sense of torment and confusion that has already pushed many people over the psychological edge.

[Michael Cain]

The thing that jumped out at me in the article lj linked to was part of the contact tracing. Everyone entering every bar or store taking out their phone and letting an application take a picture of the QR code before they enter. I can't imagine that happening anywhere in the US.

[GftNC]

Hard to know where to put this, but I guess it is related to Are we screwed yet?

I was alerted to the organisation Third Act by a piece in today's NYT about "codger power", which says:

Neil Young and Joni Mitchell did more than go after Spotify for spreading Covid disinformation last week. They also, inadvertently, signaled what could turn out to be an extraordinarily important revival: of an older generation fully rejoining the fight for a working future.

You could call it (with a wink!) codger power.

We’ve seen this close up: over the last few months we’ve worked with others of our generation to start the group Third Act, which organizes people over the age of 60 for progressive change.

An awful lot of us here on ObWi seem to be over 60, so I thought it worth mentioning.

https://thirdact.org/what-we-do/

[wj]

In California we are seeing the beginnings of a Common Sense Party
https://cacommonsense.org/
Aiming for "fiscal responsibility and social inclusivity" -- in short, conservatism the way it should be. Even if you are a staunch progressive, I'd think you should be glad to see someone sane on the other side. Now we just need it to become viable. Here's hoping.

[liberal japonicus]

https://www.kpbs.org/news/politics/2020/09/14/new-political-party-enlisted-voters-without-their

Before the pandemic, KPBS found that paid signature gatherers working for the Common Sense Party told people they were simply registering to vote, or signing petitions for ballot measures such as rent control, and did not tell them they had signed up with a new political party.

In February, about 5,000 people had signed up for the Common Sense Party in San Diego County, according to numbers from the Registrar of Voters. James Lackritz, an SDSU statistics professor, said based on the number of people contacted by KPBS, it is likely that at least 83% of the Common Sense registrants in the county are unaware they joined the party.

I guess data security is not one of those aims...

[Michael Cain]

Before the pandemic, KPBS found that paid signature gatherers working for the Common Sense Party told people they were simply registering to vote, or signing petitions for ballot measures such as rent control, and did not tell them they had signed up with a new political party.

I know that in my initiative state, this would be highly illegal: signature collectors are not allowed to omit major facts, nor to provide untrue information. I once reported a group for the latter during a recall drive. A couple of days after that I noticed they were not outside the grocery, and when they returned after a few more days, they were giving a quite different pitch.

[wj]

There is, however, a distinction between those gathering signatures for initiatives (or recall efforts) and those merely signing someone up for a political party in the course of registering to vote. After all, all that being nominally a member of a party impacts, in California, is which presidential primary you get to vote in. (All other primaries are open to anyone.)

[Snarki, child of Loki]

common sense isn't, part the infinity.

[Girl from the North Country]

I kept hearing about Jonathan Pie (see bobbyp @04.05 upthread), but had never heard about him before (to the disbelief of many here). Having just watched that "Boris Johnson is a liar" piece for the NYT, I then looked at his Trump stuff (after the 2016 election, and on the day of Biden's inauguration) and wished I'd seen it before. Excellent, brutal stuff. But I can't avoid the thought that good, brutal political satire flourished in the Weimar Republic too....

[nous]

I welcome any sign that the CA right is trying to break free from the GOP death spiral.

I do wonder who the 250 people who donated the $500,000 for the party are. Right now the public face is a law firm managing donations.

The CA Common Sense Party may run into some message confusion from the national Common Sense Party, whose platform includes going after teachers' unions and making English the official language of the US.

[Hartmut]

I read recently that the Florida GOP is doing similar shenanigans, i.e. visiting potential voters to remind them of renewing their voter registration and then changing their party affiliation to GOP without telling let alone asking for their consent.
My guess is that they aim to artificially inflate the GOP registrations in order to create a discrepancy between the actual votes and the nominal party affiliation, so they can claim 'evidence' for likely irregularities. That the efforts seem to be concentrated on heavily Dem leaning districts would imo also point into that direction.

[wj]

My guess is that they aim to artificially inflate the GOP registrations in order to create a discrepancy between the actual votes and the nominal party affiliation, so they can claim 'evidence' for likely irregularities.

The risk (whether they have thought it through or not) is that all those "extra" party members will end up voting, in their primaries, for non-fanatics. Thus giving the nominations to those who are, in the rwnj's view, RINOs. Here's hoping.

[bobbyp]

Common Sense Party?....you mean like deficit scolds Simpson and Bowles? Sorry, I can't stop laughing at the imaginary prospect of millions of people joining a political party to deliberately make life for the vast majority of future American citizens utterly miserable while claiming their policies are "common sense".

The term "fiscal responsibility" is a dead giveaway for a platform of runaway austerianism.

[wj]

The term "fiscal responsibility" is a dead giveaway for a platform of runaway austerianism.

Just because a term has been misused doesn't mean that it's meaning is changed. You have only to look at places which have been fiscally irresponsible (Argentina some years ago, Turkey currently) to see that it can result in problems for the people who live there.

Demanding balanced national budgets may be unreasonable. Suggesting that things generally get paid for is not.

[nous]

...so a call to increase public investment in schools, infrastructure, sustainability, and accessible health care is a legitimate plea for "fiscal responsibility" so long as we insist on it being funded?

Hooray! Get Bernie on the line!

[wj]

...so a call to increase public investment in schools, infrastructure, sustainability, and accessible health care is a legitimate plea for "fiscal responsibility" so long as we insist on it being funded?

Close. So long as we show where that investment will generate the money to pay for it. Doesn't need to be funded up front (what capital investment is?). Just needs to have somebody show that they've actually looked at the issue.

I don't agree with Bernie on everything. But he's a lot more in sync with me on this than a fair number of progressives I've listened to. Just sayin'

[nous]

So long as we show where that investment will generate the money to pay for it. Doesn't need to be funded up front (what capital investment is?). Just needs to have somebody show that they've actually looked at the issue.

So everything has to be monetizable? We can't spend money on things by taking money from other things to pay for it?

That does seem to be what you are saying here. We should only invest in things that pay for themselves in some way.

Is that a fair reading, or is there something missing that I'm either not seeing or you are not saying?

[nous]

Meanwhile, back on the original topic of the post, the death cultists in my family are starting to post FB memes casting the Freedom Convoy protesters as the heroes of the Return of the King arrayed against the hordes of Sauron.

We are, all of us who support vaccines and mask mandates, the evil vanguard intent upon despoiling their lovely Shire.

This is not metaphor for them, it is allegory.

[Snarki, child of Loki]

back to the original, original OP: TPM had a post on the 'lockdowns didn't do much' paper.

Noting that while it was REPORTED as a 'Johns Hopkins' study, in fact only one of the three authors was JH, an economist, who has had a significant entanglement with CATO.

Also not even submitted for peer review. In a word: partisan garbage in a fancy suit.

Mockery of 'hack economists yakking on subjects of which they are ignorant' can proceed apace.

OTOH, anyone who *cites* the study, taking it seriously, can be immediately dismissed as morons. So that's a plus.

[Nigel]

...what's amazing is the actual ministers, like Nadine Dorries...

Yes, utterly astonishing that anyone thought her fit for even a junior ministerial post.

[russell]

928,879 and counting. 1,269 died yesterday.

On one hand, millions of people who are sick of the virus and want to just go about their lives like they always did.

On another hand, a smaller number of people who are happy, for reasons of their own, to tell that first group of people to go right ahead.

And on yet another hand, a million dead people.

People are inclined to listen to people who tell them they are fully justified in doing exactly what they already want to do. If a million dead people isn't enough to counter that, I'm not sure what is.

Characterizing it as some kind of 'Regular Folks vs. The Powers That Be' drama just makes it all that much more appealing.

[wj]

So everything has to be monetizable? We can't spend money on things by taking money from other things to pay for it?

That does seem to be what you are saying here. We should only invest in things that pay for themselves in some way.

Is that a fair reading, or is there something missing that I'm either not seeing or you are not saying?

Clearly not everything is monetizable. We can see that right in the Preamble to the Constitution. But a lot of things are. And even among those which are not, it's at least worth including looking at total costs when deciding among alternate proposed solutions. Again, not the only criterion, but it should be in the mix.

Also, "fiscal responsibility" can simply be making changes to the tax law to pay for something. For example:

• Harmonize income and capital gains taxes. The argument for reducing the latter was that it would spur investment. We tried it; it didn't. So time to just recognize that income is income and tax them the same.
• Raise top tax rates to pay for whatever we are funding. There's no credible case that anyone is harmed if income above, say, $1 million is taxed at 35% or 50% or even 75%. (At that level, additional income is strictly a dick measuring contest anyway. Which doesn't require getting to keep the added income.)
• Get serious about estate taxes at the top level. In addition to the income they provide directly, it improves the "general welfare" to have fewer drones living off their ancestors achievements.

There are doubtless other options as well. But it still comes down paying for what we are buying.

[wj]

OTOH, anyone who *cites* the study, taking it seriously, can be immediately dismissed as morons. So that's a plus.

A silver lining to every cloud.

And the point that struck me was they were including something like mask mandates as a "lockdown." Seriously, you can go anywhere with just a mask, and that's a lockdown?!?!? Take about piss poor methodology....

[nous]

There are doubtless other options as well. But it still comes down paying for what we are buying.

I guess I'm baffled as to why you think this value is lacking in much of the left. Voiced as a first principle unattached to any specific policy, I imagine that the more leftish people here look at that and say "yes, of course."

I don't think the real question is of whether or not we should pay for things, but of which things are worth paying for and who should benefit from these things.

[wj]

I guess I'm baffled as to why you think this value is lacking in much of the left.

I guess because I read things like bobbyp above: "The term 'fiscal responsibility' is a dead giveaway for a platform of runaway austerianism." Which looks, to me, like a view that we should do things, regardless of whether we are willing to pay for them. That may not be what he intends, of course. But that's sure how it comes across.

Which things are worth paying for, and who should benefit from the things we do, is a separate question. Along with the question of which approaches will best (or at all) achieve the ends we agree are desirable. Issues worthy of debate, but outside the scope of fiscal responsibility per se.

[bobbyp]

I don't think the real question is of whether or not we should pay for things, but of which things are worth paying for and who should benefit from these things.

Indeed. I also don't see a lot of progressive opposition to the three policies listed by wj above, so I am not quite sure what his point is. To me the term "fiscal responsibility" carries a lot of baggage....a great deal more than "defund the police", but that's just me.

I looked over the web site, and all I saw was a lot of gibberish about how "both parties are currupt beyond measure, and are really just the same". Ralph Nader dressed up in conservative garb? It was like reading a Green Party manifesto. Given the fact that both Tea Party and further lefty types routinely trot out this meme, it is rather startling to see it coming from folks calling themselves the "Center".

But I guess bad politics is universal.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

"Which looks, to me, like a view that we should do things, regardless of whether we are willing to pay for them."

Hmmm, Kemosabe, the pronoun "we" is the drowned baby ballast in that sentence.

No one is stopping anyone from paying taxes to pay for things, except for Marty Norquist, by whom I mean the tax-hating conservative movement that aborts babies by holding their heads under the suds.

[Girl from the North Country]

Gosh, Mitch McConnell (regarding whom I bow to nobody in the depth of my contempt) today:

WASHINGTON — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell disagreed Tuesday with the Republican National Committee’s recent censure of two GOP lawmakers, as well as its characterization of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

“We all were here. We saw what happened. It was a violent insurrection for the purpose of trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after a legitimately certified election, from one administration to the next. That’s what it was,” McConnell, R-Ky., told reporters at his weekly news conference.

Since it goes without saying that he is not acting out of principle (he wouldn't recognise a principle if it bit him on the nose), this is an interesting straw in the wind.

[Girl from the North Country]

Or, as Betty Cracker over at Balloon Juice so eloquently puts it:

I mean, fuck Mitch McConnell in every orifice with every oxidized farm implement in the barn for voting against Impeachment 2 and blocking a full bipartisan investigation into the attack on his workplace. But that ghoulish old weathercock generally knows which way the Republican wind (I can’t even) is blowing (don’t even). So could this pivot mean the Trump Hindenburg is approaching the fatal mooring mast?

[JanieM]

I've wondered for a long time whether it's Mitch McConnell mostly pulling Susan Collins's strings (though that assumes facts not in evidence, like that she doesn't believe everything she says). Now this makes me wonder which of them is giving lessons to which in terms of hypocritical opportunistic babbling.

I am thinking of her recent bitching about how Biden wasn't handling the Supreme Court nomination process well. Mind-boggling.

[wj]

I saw that comment from McConnell as well. It is a given that the only thing he cares about is power, specifically his own power. So it seems likely that he sees the Trump cult and its fantasies as increasingly threatening to that power. Let's hope he's right.

[wj]

*** Post from russell earlier today rescued from the Spam folder. See above at 11:45 AM ***

[Michael Cain]

I saw that comment from McConnell as well. It is a given that the only thing he cares about is power, specifically his own power. So it seems likely that he sees the Trump cult and its fantasies as increasingly threatening to that power.

That's my knee-jerk reaction. Being Senate minority or majority leader isn't fun if the President holds all the power. I tend to think CJ Roberts thinks the same thing, at least some of the time: being CJ isn't much fun if the President and Congress hold such electoral power that they can't be removed from office.

My second thought is that McConnell undoubtedly has access to internal polling, and perhaps insider information (or at least rumors) about what's happening at DOJ. If Trump is about to become an albatross for the mid-terms, he would have an interest in creating some separation.

But I'm terrible at guessing this kind of thing.

[wj]

I'm not sure any of us have a good shot at guessing why McConnell would be trying to get distance from Trump. But it's safe to say that he's got a reason, and it's impossible that it be a matter of principle (since he has none).

[Snarki, child of Loki]

I wonder if DeSantis has realized that his only chance at the Whitehouse requires Trump to croak.

I wonder if Trump has figured that out as well.

[wj]

I wonder if Trump has figured that out as well.

Trump doubtless has the connections to hire a hit man without any real effort. Comes of running a crime family for half a century. But I suspect DeSantis doesn't. Inconvenient for him, that.

[wj]

And there's this.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/08/gop-legitimate-political-discourse/

McConnell described the attack as a “violent insurrection for the purpose of trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, after a legitimately-certified election, from one administration to the next.” [Emphasis added]

Maybe there's some way, or at least McConnell thinks he sees a way, to square this circle. But I just can't see any way he takes that position without losing the MAGAt's "legitimate political discourse" and election fraud fantasy.

[Nigel]

Don't know if russell has seen this, but read it & thought he might like.
https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/how-to-abandon-a-music-career

[Snarki, child of Loki]

"Trump doubtless has the connections to hire a hit man without any real effort."

Trump hires "the best people", so I look forward to the comedy movie that tells the story.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

Yes, we are screwed, but this long ago assault on and rape of a public institution seems about to become unscrewed:

https://www.balloon-juice.com/2022/02/09/wednesday-morning-open-thread-good-news-about-the-post-office/

[nooneithinkisinmytreee]

Perhaps we can also start carrying out death penalty public executions on those evil ones who have deserved it for decades:

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a39014953/erik-prince-spy-operation-republican-party/

Somehow I've become a law and order capital punishment conservative in my emeritus years.

Peace, baby!

[Snarki, child of Loki]

I have come to the opinion that capital punishment should be reserved for heads of state that cause the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent civilians.

Which cases should be "open and shut", no doubt about guilt, no need for forensic evidence, just give them the short drop and long dangle.

It was one of the very few things that Dubya got right about Saddam. Dubya should have been next in line.

[Hartmut]

But wouldn't that keep good people from applying for the job and make bad people even more reckless,if there was that kind of threat?
Also something about omelettes and eggs.
[/snark]

[GftNC]

Just as long as you don't sic the gazpacho police on them! (h/t MTG)

https://twitter.com/AccountableGOP/status/1491525010997096449

Much merriment on twitter about how they will be going after Anti-Pho.

I'm tempted to say this is what happens in a world where you ban Maus. I'm sorry, and I know laughter can distract from the serious situation of having such idiots in positions of any power, but sometimes you just have to laugh....

[wj]

sometimes you just have to laugh....

When we can no longer laugh at the Gazpacho Police we will know that all is indeed lost.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

The White House toilets have started to back up into the Lincoln bedroom:

https://www.axios.com/maggie-haberman-book-trump-papers-2d59d593-8b89-4edd-8623-8ef709af524f.html?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20Email%202-10-22&utm_term=us-morning-email

I wonder if there will be more revelations about Nixon's Watergate, Reagan's Irangate, and Bush the Younger's Weapons of Mass Destruction-Gate too as long-ago-flushed conservative movement sewage reveals the Republican Party's shit-for-brains filing system.

There must be mass executions of the tens of thousands of major conservative movement actors who are killing America.

Bloody Vengeance is a gazpacho best served cold:

THEY'd kill US if they could:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbN6F4tfbgo

A selection of MGT puns from Balloon Juice:

https://www.balloon-juice.com/2022/02/09/and-in-the-timeline-to-which-the-trickster-god-has-confined-us/

Remember, however, that even smirking at a malapropism by a Nazi officer meant that everyone in the shtetl got a free train ride, even Mel Brooks.

Make no mistake that the subhuman conservative movement is a racist, genocidal, election-stealing killing machine, despite the occasional bits of light relief.

Funny, how?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfcy15ZUE2c

[russell]

Don't know if russell has seen this

yes! you hipped us to Gioia a while back, and I've become a subscriber to his email feed. a really thoughtful and interesting writer on music, the business of music, and how music sits in our culture.

the "how to abandon a music career" piece in particular resonated with me. probably 30-ish years ago I found myself in a position similar to what Gioia describes - I was working a lot as a drummer, progressively playing with better and better players, beginning to get calls for more visible gigs. not famous stuff, but the kind of work that you could, eventually, make a living from. at the same time, I was dealing with neurological / psychological issues - agoraphobia, basically - that made it impractical to travel. you can't really make a living as a performer if you can't travel.

so I wrote code instead.

somewhere along the way I discovered the magic of modern anti-anxiety meds, and can basically go anywhere I like at this point. flying is still a challenge, but is manageable. but at that point it was not really practical to begin pursuing a performing career, for a number of reasons.

I'm about a year away from retiring, and am looking forward to returning to music 24/7. If Covid becomes manageable enough for a viable music scene to return, I'm hoping to get back out there. nothing famous or particularly visible, just playing with good players at a local / regional level.

when you think you have a plan for life, that's when you discover life has its own plans for you. ya gotta make the most of what you got.

[russell]

Just as long as you don't sic the gazpacho police on them!

dumber than a box of rocks. I can't speak to Greene's inherent cognitive ability, but the depth of her ignorance puts the Grand Canyon to shame.

she's not the only one.

[wj]

And while we're giggling, there's this:
Ohio mayor lambasted for saying ice fishing would lead to prostitution

Where do they** find these people?!?!?

** I did check, and yes he does belong to the political party you assumed.

[russell]

ice fishing would lead to prostitution

it gets lonely out there in those ice shacks.

[wj]

it gets lonely out there in those ice shacks

But isn't that the whole purpose of fishing (including ice fishing): to get away from other people?

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

Beats licking a pump handle with baited breath in below zero degree weather.

MTG didn't have to undergo an IQ test or even a cranium measurement with Charles Murray-approved calipers to carry a deadly weapon.

Thanks, asshole conservatives.

[russell]

But isn't that the whole purpose of fishing (including ice fishing): to get away from other people?

that's their story and they're sticking to it.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

"Where do they** find these people?!?!?"

The conservative movement moneybags have a nose for electable talent among their dumb ass base.

[JanieM]

Ice fishing: no one has mentioned whiskey yet?

Two of my family members went ice fishing the other day (no shack, no whiskey, this was just on a lark, although not so much of a lark that we didn't have the necessary equipment squirreled away in the barn) -- they drilled through two feet of ice and actually caught a few fish. Two feet is actually not that much compared to some years.

[JanieM]

PS the notion that ice fishing shacks would encourage prostitution where it did not flourish without that encouragement suggests, among other things, a staggering lack of imagination, as well as a lack of . . . experience?

[JanieM]

PPS Russell -- if we get back to where there's a music scene, I'd love a chance to hear you play.

Being able to travel again, even if it's "only" to Massachusetts, will be a great treat after these pandemic years. Traveling to hear music that you're part of would make it extra special.

So keep us posted!

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

Now this:

"On a day Michael Cohen was leaving the Oval Office, she walked in and witnessed Trump chewing what he had just torn up."

Let's hope the autopsy tells us more.

But, her emails.

Yeah, we'd better vote for the "What's an Aleppo?" genius, ya know, to preserve our principles.

Sven and Ollie, for your ice fishing joke clearinghouse:

https://upjoke.com/ole-and-sven-jokes

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

Turn the Bell Curve upside down for a demographic snapshot of the good ole USA.

[nous]

In NE Wisconsin when I was growing up we used to refer to ice fishing as 'ice drinking.' MTV could have made a reality show called Pimp My Shack. The one my friend built had a sofa, a generator, lights, and a TV for watching the Packers. Would have had a fridge, but the beer kept fine in the snowbank outside. It was cozy enough that no parkas were required, even when the temperatures were sub-zero.

Two holes with tip-ups in case he caught something while the game was on.

Basically a portable man-cave.

[GftNC]

ice fishing would lead to prostitution

He's obviously taken The Ballad of Eskimo Nell as fact.

Now Deadeye Dick and Mexico Pete
Were hunting up on Dead Man's' Creek,
And they'd had no luck
In the way of a f*ck
For nigh on half a week.
Just a moose or two, or a caribou,
Or a bison cow or so...

So off they go, in search of prostitution.

Very serious warning: it's almost unbelievably obscene and unacceptable these days (as opposed to unbelievably obscene and funny, as it used to be several decades ago), but this is the closest to the version I know:

https://archive.org/details/eskimonell4

My favourite line:

It may be rare in Berkeley Square, but NOT on the Rio Grand

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

That about sums it up:

https://crookedtimber.org/2022/02/09/the-end-of-hope/

I never expected to spend the last part of my life trying to survive a savagely violent apocalypse against ruthless vermin.

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

Apropos of nothing and everything:

I'm re-reading all of James Joyce, about to read "Ulysses" for the third time, and will endeavor to be tackled by "Finnegan's Wake" for the first time with help from several annotators.

But I was recalling a comment thread here months ago regarding reasons to read "Ulysses", and wj's and perhaps others' distaste for it's difficulties (one can take Nabokov's approach and forget the attendant literary pedantries in the book, though much pleasure would be missed, and simply read a story of one man's (Leopold Bloom's) peregrinations through one city on one day as he contemplates the not always bitter nature of his Fate with life's accomplices Molly Bloom and Stephen Daedalus (What is the word known to all men?).)

I was also considering the latest outbreak of conservative book burning (liberals should leave "Huckleberry Finn" and such alone too, if they know what's good for them), and I came upon this in an article on Joyce in the recent New Yorker:

https://usylessly.com/#section1

... which contains this, a story about a Nazi reader of literature spurned and returning with conservative vengeance. I was not fully conversant with, about the professional bookburners that conservative American bookburners attempt to emulate every decade or so on American soil, because we always forget to shoot all of them the previous times.

"Beach, Saillet, and the Nazis

It was 1941 and the Germans had occupied Paris. A Nazi officer, who spoke perfect English, came into the shop and wanted to buy the Finnegans Wake he had seen in the window. Beach refused because it was her last copy. The officer, enraged, stomped out, promising to return. Beach hid the copy, and when he returned a few days later she said it had been put away. The officer shouted ‘We’re coming to confiscate all your books!’ She called the concierge, got permission to use the fourth-floor apartment, and with Adrienne Monnier and the young Saillet moved 5,000 books upstairs. She then called a carpenter to take down the shelves in the shop and a painter to cover the name on the building. In a single day in December 1941 Shakespeare and Company disappeared. The officer never returned, and though other Nazis eventually arrested Beach they never found the hidden books. On 26 August 1944, the day after the Germans surrendered Paris, Hemingway came by, checked the roof for snipers and ‘liberated’ the bookstore. It was around this time that Sylvia Beach gave number 17 to her shop assistant Maurice Saillet, as a thank-you, for helping to hide her books from the Nazis."

Just desultory thinking, one thing leading to another, on my part, but maybe interesting to others as well.

[wj]

In a well-run universe, IMHO, there would be an abundance of books. Including both those I love reading, those to which I am indifferent, and those I actively dislike. There might be something to be said for overtly labeling as fiction those which assert things contrary to fact. But otherwise, if someone enjoys reading garbage, well . . . tastes differ.

Perhaps this stems from having a parent who ws a librarian. And having worked in a library myself while in high school. But banning, let alone burning, books makes me all twitchy.

And both raise a question. Why would someone be so unsure of their own views' merits as to be that fearful of the existance of alternate views being known? It seems like that concern would be a big red flag, and indication the one's views needed reexamination.

[russell]

So keep us posted!

will do! and thank you.

reasons to read "Ulysses"

my sister took a course in Joyce when she got her masters in library science. she read Ulysses with the assistance of a commentary.

she was talking about all of this with my father, whose education ended at 8th grade.

he found this puzzling. "you mean you have to read another book to understand the first book?"

I sort of saw his point. But, some worthwhile experiences require training wheels.

Nobody tries to climb Everest in their street clothes.

[CharlesWT]

Why would someone be so unsure of their own views' merits as to be that fearful of the existance of alternate views being known?

Down through history, even many of the strong advocates for free speech have been picky about who should and who shouldn't be allowed to speak or write freely.

"In Free Speech, Jacob Mchangama traces the riveting legal, political, and cultural history of this idea. Through captivating stories of free speech’s many defenders—from the ancient Athenian orator Demosthenes and the ninth-century freethinker al-Rāzī, to the anti-lynching crusader Ida B. Wells and modern-day digital activists—Mchangama reveals how the free exchange of ideas underlies all intellectual achievement and has enabled the advancement of both freedom and equality worldwide. Yet the desire to restrict speech, too, is a constant, and he explores how even its champions can be led down this path when the rise of new and contrarian voices challenge power and privilege of all stripes."
Free Speech: A History from Socrates to Social Media

[nooneithinkisinmytree]

"you mean you have to read another book to understand the first book?"

It is a lot of work to get to the bottom of it.

Well, all of the western Canon could be said to be the epigraph to "Ulysses".

It would probably be advisable to have some familiarity with the Bible to get Faulkner.

You'll find yourself looking up the Bhagavad Gita, and much else near the end of T.S. Eliot's "The Waste Land".

The Greek/Roman myth of Thisbe and Pyramus, perhaps from Ovid's Metamorphosis, to see the universal sense in Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet and even A Midsummer's Night's Dream.

Kierkegaard is a useful introduction to Walker Percy's "The Moviegoer".

Without the black American rhythm and blues canon, what would I be hearing from Eric Clapton and the early Stones.

The Tibetan Book of the Dead for Lennon's "Tomorrow Never Knows", not to mention keeping a sharp ear out for Ringo's spontaneous YogiBerraisms like .... "tomorrow never knows", and ... "a hard day's night".

I forget which Jane Austen novel for the Beatles' "Girl", and Lewis Carroll in "I Am The Walrus", and to come full circle, "googoo gajoob" sounds eerily like Joyce in Finnegan's Wake ..., "Goo goo goosth."

And, who was the "Egg Man", anywho?

Maybe ask Eric Burdon. Maybe better not, on second thought.

"Nobody tries to climb Everest in their street clothes."

Yet, Marjorie Taylor Greene and company can make a mountain out of molehill with no prior climbing experience at, please excuse my French, the heights of governing.

For whom does the Monte "squieu"?, one might well arsk.

I'll have the cold gestapo to start, and please keep them coming, with a side of tonton macoute pie.

[Snarki, child of Loki]

Shakespeare & Company is a truly awesome bookstore. Visit whenever possible!

Great view of Notre Dame nearby across the river too.

[Hartmut]

The Brits made a movie of Eskimo Nell.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eskimo_Nell_(film)
There are of course quite different approaches possible (but one should be very careful not to mix them up or Her Majesty will most definitely not be amused).

[wj]

A version of a movie, based on the Ballad of Eskimo Nell, which is a "a wholesome family production"? The mind boggles.

[Hartmut]

The movie is actually funny despite it being a British sex comedy (the mandatory epitheton of this genre used to be 'dreadful').