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January 24, 2022

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The article you link suggests this as a solution:
...the Biden Administration could save face by agreeing to a moratorium on new NATO memberships for the next 15 years..

That does rather echo the Moscow line.

Moscow warns Finland and Sweden against joining Nato amid rising tensions
https://eutoday.net/news/security-defence/2021/moscow-warns-finland-and-sweden-against-joining-nato-amid-rising-tensions

And why Minsk II perhaps isn't going to be the basis for a settlement to the current crisis:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/05/minsk-conundrum-western-policy-and-russias-war-eastern-ukraine-0/minsk-2-agreement

Thanks for putting this up. (I had been procrastinating on writing something on the issue as well.)

Any discussion on resolving the crisis has to start with recognizing just how bad a situation Putin is in. The Russian economy is a mess. For that and other reasons, his popularity is at an all time low. And, police state apparatus notwithstanding, Russians are increasingly willing to publicly make their dissatisfaction known.

Putin's go-to approach to regaining popular support is a foreign adventure. Invading Georgia worked. Invading Crimea worked. The invasion of parts of Ukraine worked. (Even if officially not involving Russian troops, nobody in Russia believed that for a minute.)

But all of those put the Russian military up against weak to nonexistent military opposition. Today's Ukrainian army, while nowhere near the equal of Russia's, is at a whole different level of training, equipment, etc. than it was even a couple of years ago. And while Ukrainian topography isn't as favorable as, say, Afghanistan's, the demographics are substantially better for a guerrilla resistance. So it could be a long and nasty campaign.

Plus, the Russian army, while large, does not have unlimited resources. And events in Kazakhstan have drawn off significant troops in order to support the current regime there. Leaving fewer resources to subdue Ukraine after a possible invasion. Although a strictly air borne and artillery approach could limit casualties, it also would be less politically helpful than actually grabbing territory.

And finally, instead of a fanboy in the White House, Putin is looking at a US government which is far less compliant, and far more competent diplomatically. Which means the economic cost to Russia (not to mention the potential personal financial cost to Putin and the kleptocrats who support him) will be far higher.

Overall, the man is in a tough spot. He doesn't have any good options. It comes down to what he decides will be the least bad one.

Is something interesting happening overseas?

"instead of a fanboy in the White House"

Correcting the "instead" in that sentence is Putin's primary geopolitical target.

"Is something interesting happening overseas?"

Oh, it's domestic, right up our noses in our subhuman traitorous vermin conservative movement backyard.

ttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/20/us/politics/ted-cruz-biden-ukraine.html

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/newt-threatens-jail-for-jan-6th-investigators

Civil Fucking War on every street in pigfucking conservative dogshit America.

I found these two Twitter threads useful as they're trying to see things from Putin's perspective:

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1485241734925897728

The best (semi-realistic) scenario, from a Ukrainian point of view, would be a warming trend, which keeps the ground from freezing significantly. Meaning that the ability of Russian tanks and other heavy equipment to roll across the border is restricted. (The need to wait for the ground to freeze hard is the reason predicted dates for the invasion have, for months, been February.) Unfortunately, not much the Ukrainian government can do to warm things up.

No, they did not "fire back". They flapped their twitter lips back, pointlessly.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/1/24/2076444/-Gingrich-channels-Trump-with-threat-to-jail-Jan-6-committee-members

Only firing back, in the full literal, no-air-quotes sense of the English language, the kind vermin conservatives routinely threaten, is going to save America.

Fiona Hill, via LGM:

"In the 1990s, the United States and NATO forced Russia to withdraw the remnants of the Soviet military from their bases in Eastern Europe, Germany and the Baltic States. Mr. Putin wants the United States to suffer in a similar way. From Russia’s perspective, America’s domestic travails after four years of President Donald Trump’s disastrous presidency, as well as the rifts he created with U.S. allies and then America’s precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan, signal weakness. If Russia presses hard enough, Mr. Putin hopes he can strike a new security deal with NATO and Europe to avoid an open-ended conflict, and then it will be America’s turn to leave, taking its troops and missiles with it."

Putin and Trump get all they wanted.

America is fucked and with it Democracy, and with thoroughly stolen elections before us as far as the eye can see, it will stay fucked with a low tax fascist subhuman regime.

Kill the conservative movement.

It is an evil, traitorous Beast.

This could make for some fun times / hysterics. As you may know, the US has some 100 troops in Ukraine as trainers for the Ukraine military. What you may not know (I certainly didn't) is that those troops are from the Florida National Guard. Picture DeSantis' reaction if/when hostilities break out.

"Picture DeSantis' reaction if/when hostilities break out."

OK.

He'll arrest Florida school teachers for letting a black first grader boast in broad daylight that her Dad is one of the Florida Guard getting his ass kicked and his life matters.

He'll send a team of veterinarians from Florida's alligator control Unit to de-worm the Florida Guard members in the Ukraine with ivermectin to treat their war wounds.

He'll order the Guard members back stateside and deputize them into his Election Surveillance Guard to enforce free and fair elections and with orders to regard blacks and other minorities approaching polling stations next Fall as invading Communist and UN troops.

He'll cancel the Guard members' health coverage because they were vaccinated against polio, hepatitis, tuberculosis, shingles, and conservative canine distemper before winging off on their mission.

He'll fire the rest of the Florida State Health Department for whatever it is he will fire them for, maybe because they are healthy.

He'll drain the rest of the Everglades to make way for a luxury housing development and golf club, Mar-a-Potemkin with exclusive membership limited to wealthy Russian oligarchs disguised as Ukrainian troops practicing their war games in a 20 square mile mock-up of Washington DC.

Here's a picture: Federal troops surrounding the Florida Governor' manse and hauling DeSantis, on the martial law order of President Joe Biden, blindfolded and hog-tied into the street and executed by firing squad and his bullet-riddled body left to rot in the Florida heat like some former Eastern European Kremlin lackey.

Then the Governor of Texas will re-christen HIS ranch the Alamo and he'll pull up all of the wheelchair ramps and then the real goddamned fun can commence.


I think I posted something yesterday that went into spam. This is a different post. Also, as with yesterday, mostly just a recommended link.

https://irrussianality.wordpress.com/2022/01/20/spooks-russia-and-disinformation/

That went through. Here is another link.

https://postsocialism.org/2022/01/10/the-russia-pundit-problem/

https://www.eschatonblog.com/2022/01/these-assholes-are-trying-to-kill-your.html

No matter how many of the conservative movement death cult who murder (just another term for freedom) themselves and their families with Covid-19, for every dead one (here's lookin at ya, Sarah Death Panel) they gain two more stolen votes via their utter corruption and destruction of the voting franchise across the country.

I believe they are counting on their legions of evil dead being resurrected to walk again and kill all representative government, kill the nation's public education system, and rule by fascist armed force.

It is the new fake math of the vermin resurrected.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCTwcbTOnlU

The genocidal conservative, crypto-religious, crypto-libertarian Republican Party movement must be terminated.

Every one of them.

Start here:

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1485719639137128455%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdigbysblog.net%2F

All civilized institutional rule-of-law impediments to these evil ones murdering all of us are melting away.

They're coming.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foFFwO06-tw