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December 02, 2021

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Interesting thread below. I hope he is right. I think he is but who knows?

https://twitter.com/zeitzoff/status/1473441456874565636

It’s a downplaying of the civil war talk.

Donald - I agree with the tweeter to an extent, but I really think that he also misunderstands the current dynamic somewhat. I think where the dynamic leaves us is not in anything like civil war or partition. Rather, what I see happening (as I've said here before) is a breakdown of federal authority in law enforcement (as rw administrations seek to break the institutions and make them partisan, and the SC applies its thumb in partisan ways to allow only one side to exercise authority). That will leave the states to continue to oppose federal oversight, with GOP governors seeking federal help against lw protesters when they control the presidency and seeking to block federal action when the dems are in power.

And on the local level we will see local law enforcement resisting Dem governors' and presidents' executive orders and enforcing local standards of their own preference.

We already know what this looks like in the US. It's the way things were when the Klan was in charge of large areas of the US. It will be low-intensity conflict with rural areas refusing to comply and urban areas troubled by protests and by smaller turf wars held in check by local law enforcement (in a way that looks a lot like Kenosha when it comes to violence).

And if the LW tries to resist and band together like the RW does with their militias, they are going to be treated like the Black Panthers, with all of the leaders dead or in prison.

Not been following everything super closely, so apologies if this link has been put up

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/20/us-closer-to-civil-war-new-book-barbara-walter-trump-capitol-attack

I think the tweeter assumes that 'a wide swath' of the country has to support violence as a necessary condition for civil war seems off to me. I suppose for the US to reenact Gettysburg, it is required, but for groups to misperceive intentions, I would think that it only requires a committed minority who are willing to carry out violence to get that started.

How ridiculous is it that this is even something that needs to be discussed

I completely agree, which is what (I'm sure you all realised this) I was getting at when I said no doubt an infuriating thought. On Janie's point, Ireland seems better than most feasible societies at the moment (SSM, abortion, rejection of the church by the young) and everyone I know who has a right to it has already applied for Irish passports, which (not coincidentally) also gives them the right again to move and work in the EU.

Alas, I feel that nous's description of how things are likely to play out in the US might be on the money. But as for the UK, I am at a loss. I cannot really understand why Keir Starmer, a patently decent, competent man, has not cut through more. Current polls reflect disgust with the Tories (sleaze, incompetence) and disenchantment with BoJo's shtick, not a real recognition that Labour would be better for most people. Sigh.

Alas, I feel that nous's description of how things are likely to play out in the US might be on the money.

Agreed, with the caveat that it's an on-the-money description of how things are *now*.

My prediction is that we will muddle through. But then predictions are fraught with uncertainty. Especially when they about the future...

I expect both that we will muddle thru, and that things will get worse before they gett better.

Considering that we already had what amounted to a violent attempt to overthrow the government, how bad constitites "worse" is worrisome,

My prediction is that we will muddle through.

Maybe the way we are muddling through the pandemic. What's 800,000 people dead, give or take a few?

Maybe the way we are muddling through the pandemic. What's 800,000 people dead, give or take a few?

"Muddling thru" involves surviving, in spite of not having any kind of clear plan.

That seems to describe the pandemic. Admittedly, "survive" is a very low bar. But that's where we're at on that.

And it's not looking like any clear plans in train to thwart the next try to overthrow the government. We know they have plans to do that; they publish them. But plans to stop it, preferably start it cold?

i don't think the US will get to anything like a civil war, or widespread violent uprisings, for one simple reason: Fox News is the primary instigator of this whole thing and it needs advertisers and cable company access. and the kind of advertisers Fox News needs to stay in business as a national channel, and cable TV providers, aren't going to stick around if they think their brand is going to become associated with roving gangs of murderous zealots.

they can weather a Jan 6th, and some big names have pulled ads from Carlson's show. but if it gets too toxic, Disney and McDs will leave the whole channel.

without Fox News pumping them full of rage, i don't think the movement can maintain the level of freak-out it needs.

I don't understand how people can be told over the course of decades that their way of life is being destroyed, and though it never happens, they keep believing it. It's like when a friend of mine told me Obama was ruining the country but couldn't tell me how when I pressed him on it. He just was. And are they still doing the "War on Christmas" thing? I stopped paying attention.

I don't know, Koch, Murdoch, the RNC, and other big money pots could keep FOXNews going well into a bout of mass genocide of undesirables.

The stock market, never one to pass up a bloody buck, would paly along by coming up with some SPAC-like publicy-traded grifts to fund supplies, like ammo and backhoes to dig the mass graves.

I doubt Manchin would appear on FOX during the conflagration to express his personal disappointment, for fear his drug-addled constituents might dig up their dead Mamaws and Papaws and hustle their corpses down to the polls and vote for the Republican challenger.

Disney itself might have a new featured ride at its parks simulating the 1/6 attack on the Capitol with lifelike dummies of lead Democrats to take pot shots at.

They could have a OH my God, someone's hung Mike Pence again booth, after which a recorded video of Pence thanking Trump for paying out enough rope to hold the former's fat Christian ass off the ground long enough to look real.

The killer conservatives among the customers might get hungry and pay out major dough to mobile McDonalds outlets paced strategically throughout the ride.

There is plenty of gummint-hating money in America to fund conservative movement plans to kill.

Remember, in Civil War Numero Uno, Americans packed their picnic baskets, parasols, and the kids up to view and enjoy the slaughter below from bluffs above the battlefields.

The social media of the day.

Never underestimate the bloodlust of yer everyday American churchgoing insurance salesmen, attorneys, and itinerant losers.

Fox is less dependent on advertising than many other sources of RWNJ propaganda. Fox gets a cut of your cable bill, if you pay one, because of "bundling". There may be some cable company, somewhere, of which that's not true -- maybe.

A bunch of companies announced they would put their political giving "on hold" in the immediate aftermath of The MAGAt Insurrection. I'm sure they quietly went back to funding the GOP/MAGA shitshow very soon thereafter. Does anybody know if someone is keeping track?

I wouldn't be caught dead in a Hobby Lobby. Home Depot is dead to me. MyPillow is of course on my forever shit list. Locally, I stopped shopping at Wilson's Farm Stand when I learned that the owners are big Trump donors. My house needs all sorts of work; when I start looking for contractors I will make sure they're not MAGAts before I hire them. It's probably easier to do business exclusively with sane people here in MA than elsewhere, so I can't really fault people in other states for not doing the same. But wouldn't it be great if MAGAt businesses had to get by with exclusively MAGAt customers?

--TP

Fox News is the primary instigator of this whole thing and it needs advertisers and cable company access.

Fox is along for the ride. They can't survive their entire viewership going to one of the rivals to the right. We've seen their attempts at getting off the crazy train with them calling the AZ vote and with the Jan. 6 attack on congress. Both times they tried to pull back, and both times they ended up getting dragged back.

Fox is not in charge. They have to dance to the tune set by the RW Internet Id. There are plenty of other media outlets worse than them who are waiting in the wings and dreaming of taking over for them.

Why else do you think that Carlson remains untouched and unreined?

https://jabberwocking.com/we-have-a-shortage-of-covid-testing-kits-because-nobody-ordered-them/

Those damned high inventories and storage costs of Shoshalism.

I prefer the efficiencies of just in time asphyxiation.

A unvaxxed Trumper neighbor of an old friend of mine during the second wave of Covid earlier this year took 48 hours to croak after stealing my money for a couple of days on a ventilator.

A female friend of my ex-wife, also unvaxxed, died of the virus a couple of months ago, as did an unvaxxed friend of my former sister-in-law in Montrose, Colorado.

And yet, minority malignant conservatism seems to pile up more votes every week.

The lucky dead ones will be able to vote twice in 2022 and 2024, while I'm likely not going to be able to because I'm a living liberal.

The lucky dead ones will be able to vote twice in 2022 and 2024, while I'm likely not going to be able to because I'm a living liberal.

Oh, you'll absolutely be allowed to vote, never fear.

Whether your vote will get counted, however, depends on where you live.

Fox is not in charge. They have to dance to the tune set by the RW Internet Id. There are plenty of other media outlets worse than them who are waiting in the wings and dreaming of taking over for them.

the internet audience is nothing like the Fox News audience - internet is active, TV is passive, for one. can't be passively forced to read a blog while sitting in the mechanic's waiting room. the internet audience is going to be younger (because of the tech) and it's going to be ideologically fragmented because there's no single authoritative voice to set the tone and focus for conservatives on the internet - it's just a bunch of amateur and small-time screamers trying to outscream each other - makes for confused messaging. they may want to take over Fox, but they aren't going to.

i mean, how are they all to know when they all have to do an immediate 180 on some principle they thought was central to conservatism, if they're all following different demagogues? modern conservatism needs a strong central authority to make it work.

Why else do you think that Carlson remains untouched and unreined?

because he's making them money.

but there is a fairly decent list of current and former Fox News hosts who have been forced to take a sudden time out (sometimes permanently). Murdoch doesn't let money losers linger for too long.

The conspiracy theory here is NOT the Anthrax one, according to the sick dummies:

https://www.balloon-juice.com/2021/12/22/wednesday-evening-open-thread-anthrax1/

"Nothing to see here" and "Both sides do it" are the conspiracy theories of our parlous age.

"Murdoch doesn't let money losers linger for too long."

There's a difference between T&A on page three and hawking political violence against elected government and mass death by pandemic.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2015/01/history-of-the-suns-controversial-page-3.html

Actually, maybe there isn't a difference for capitalist vermin (as opposed to communist vermin) and therin lies the problem.

It's all product, both my titillation and my death.

Just a different aisle at the bullshit American supermarket.

On which aisle may I find the rat poison?

Got an infestation here.


"therein"

I have a theory about the dried-up supply chain of "e"'s.

"On which aisle may I find the rat poison?"

Pretty sure it's between the cleaning supplies and the herbal remedies.

But hey, do your own research.

NYT via yahoo (no pay/subscription wall):

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fbi-deployed-surveillance-teams-inside-192056099.html

The event — like others that had consumed the city since the murder of George Floyd by a police officer in Minneapolis in 2020 — included a variety of anarchists, anti-fascists, communists and racial justice activists. But there were others mingling in the crowd that day: plainclothes agents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

(...)

The FBI set up extensive surveillance operations inside Portland’s protest movement, according to documents obtained by The New York Times and current and former federal officials, with agents standing shoulder to shoulder with activists, tailing vandalism suspects to guide the local police toward arrests and furtively videotaping inside one of the country’s most active domestic protest movements.

(...)

There has been no evidence that the bureau used similar surveillance teams on right-wing demonstrators during the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, despite potential threats of violence against the heart of federal government — though the FBI did have an informant in the crowd that day. The bureau has at times used secretive tactics to disrupt right-wing violence, such as efforts that led to charges against men accused of conspiring to kidnap Michigan’s governor.

I'm thinking about what nous wrote earlier about how authorities might not treat groups at each end of the political spectrum the same.

It's always the surveillance society against anything or anyone left of Sandy Koufax, or even Don Drysdale, America's ingrown, malignant bias is.

Not so much, when mass death might be prevented:

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2021/12/massive-undercounting-of-deaths-caused-directly-by-covid-19

Christ, we're more of a fetishistic death cult than the Aztecs.

https://qz.com/374994/aztec-sacrifice-was-real-and-its-not-fetishistic-to-be-fascinated-by-it/

Death must be a sex thing with so-called Christians.

no1, they were sent to Bosnia years ago. I suppose now we also hav a supply chain problm.

51% of fetuses polled by InUtero Pollsters say they would vote for freedom of choice Democrats over the Let's-Murder-Both-the Mother-and-Her-Baby-and-them-sue-them-both Republican vermin:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/12/16/2069590/-Republicanism-claims-more-victims-Pandemic-deaths-among-pregnant-Americans-are-now-surging?pm_source=story_sidebar&pm_medium=web&pm_campaign=most-shared

There is a margin of error, as in Amy Coney Barrett has made a huge miscalculation on behalf of rapey Texas Republicans, and not one America will survive.

Well, kids, have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

Joan Dideon has died.

So we go into 2022 with fewer masterfully exquisite sentences.

massive-undercounting-of-deaths-caused-directly-by-covid-19

And, even then, the numbers from Johns Hopkins now have COVID deaths in the US equaling a quarter of a percent of the population. So one in 400 have died of COVID according to the under-count.

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