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November 02, 2020

Comments

At Balloon-Juice they have a name for this sort of thing... ;-)

Spent an hour this afternoon setting up the polling location. (So as not to have to do it ultra-early Tuesday. It's going to be a long enough day as is.)

One of my 6 poll workers phoned in that she had potentially been exposed to covid over the weekend, and so was out pending test results. But late in the day she got negative results back, so I'm back to full staff.

We're all hoping for a quiet day. (Something like 75% of our registered voters have already got their ballots mailed in.) But a couple of folks are twitchy about possible voter intimidation and such like nonsense. I'm optimistic. But we've got the sheriff on speed dial, just in case.

wj -- good luck tomorrow. I hope you don't need to speed dial the sheriff! Are you allowed to bring something to read in case the day is very quiet? Or does conversing with your crew suffice for entertainment...?

best of luck wj. hope the crazies stay home and don't bug you.

and thank you.

wj, you have an iphone? Check this out

https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/apps/a32892510/siri-pulled-over-police-recording-shortcut/

This doesn’t work unless you’ve installed the Shortcuts app, and download the actual shortcut itself. You will also need to give it certain permissions in the Shortcuts app these are all safe, they just allow the commands to run.

There is a link to click on at the end of this article.
https://www.wthr.com/article/news/trending-viral/siri-im-getting-pulled-over-iphone-shortcut-records-police-interactions/531-27d439f1-e744-4942-abe7-63ecb1ee727d

You might want to record something first, hoping it doesn't come to that.

Janie, as far as I know we're allowed to read if things get quiet. The Poll Worker's Guide explicitly recommends bringing handwork, so that seems like a reasonably parallel activity.

My plan, such as it is, is to start out speaking reasonably. Then take advantage of the fact that I'm 6'3" and loom at those who are not willing to be reasonable. Only if that doesn't work is there reason to call the authorities.

We do have what I suspect is the advantage of being in an upscale and relatively conservative (for the Bay Area) area. So I'm guessing that those inclined to voter harassment will go off to someplace with more anti-Trump inclinations. Not that he's exactly a hero here either. But there are places like San Francisco and Berkeley, not to mention a couple majority-Black cities, within 25 miles. Far better targets than we are.

Sorry, lj, no iPhone.

At Balloon-Juice they have a name for this sort of thing... ;-)

it's just a myth

https://www.balloon-juice.com/2020/11/02/a-few-final-words-from-president-lincoln/

Referenced therein:

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1632203588/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Notice the names of the conspirators. They NEVER go away of their own malignant volition, even after generations.

I've cited this guy before, Jeffrey Gundlach, not a household name, but neither were the infamous Michael Milken or the legitimate William Gross of PIMCO before they became the kings of fixed income in the credit markets:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-could-split-up-gundlach-says-heres-how-hed-invest-for-that-11604352902

He expects Trump and Republicans to win today (praying men and women hope he's wrong, but he's a congenitally conservative betting man with untold billions behind him; it's America, where the prayers of the decent remain in the unheard queue, but the cash is collected at the 24-hour betting window, always open for business and profitable regardless of the suffering) it's his prediction, from his high position, of IMMINENT revolution and the breakup of America in the interview that places whatever crazed statements by nobody me regarding what's coming and who it is coming to in brighter relief.

Back to lurking.

Good luck, friends.

I can't look.

I've wagered a small sum on Biden taking Texas.
Fingers crossed.

Nigel, that made me chuckle. Fingers crossed for more reasons than one!

Dixville Notch went 5-0 for Biden.

In 2016 it wasn't so uniform: Hillary Clinton 4, Donald Trump 2, Gary Johnson 1 -- and a single write-in surprise: Mitt Romney.

I wonder where the other three voters went. Abstaining? Off to greener pastures? Caught by COVID? As to the latter, I hope not.

Report from the front:

As of yesterday 65% of registered voters in my county had voted.

At my polling station, the line maxed out at about 25 people at around 7:20 this morning. By 9 we were down to just a couple folks in line now and then. This with our room limited to 10 people . . . 5 of whom were poll workers. And a 5 sheet (both sides) ballot, thanks to 6 pages of propositions.

Some hassles figuring out the right ballot type (we have a dozen, depending on local races) for a couple newly registered folks. But no big issues. And no problem individuals per se. Here's hoping it stays that way.

I went to vote about 11 AM. Just me and 6 or 7 poll workers.

wj...glad to hear things are peaceful. Thanks for being there.

TV is reporting light turnout in the Raleigh area, too.

my guess: people simply voted early this time. turnout will be only slightly higher than 2016.

This is cool. Cretaceous seashores and voting patterns.

https://twitter.com/latifnasser/status/1323334896845086721

Without meaning to introduce additional election day stress, I note that the WaPo election site has DJT sprinting to an early lead over Biden:

16 votes to 10.

Not electoral votes, just votes.

All 26 votes appear to have come from NH (so, Dixville Notch plus its suburbs?) which the Post, in an example of obvious fake news, reports as having "no clear leader" at this point.

Don't let DJT see it, he'll declare victory.

Uh, oh. Cat's out of the bag!

Whistling thru the graveyard.

@bobbyp: A few years ago it was Nate Silver....

@russell: the suburbs of Dixville Notch...are they kinda like Brigadoon? ;-)

the suburbs of Dixville Notch...are they kinda like Brigadoon?

things do get a bit sparse when you get north of Berlin...

So those Miami-Dade numbers were a punch in the gut.

Everyone's favorite senator, Mitch McConnell, reelected.

Hmmm, that whole thing didn't quite go as planned...

That the election is even close should be enough to give the US failing grades even if the Orange One gets booted. And the biggest incumbent digestive rear exits already got reelected. And all-a-bummer (as expected) went back to white, right and crazy the moment Moore was not on the ballot (and even then it was too close for sane people). So, a switch in the senate looks qute unlikely and I won't put any bets on the WH race. So, either a-block-alypse now (and the House going South in 2 years to punish the Dems for not achieving anything) or a-blob-alypse orange ongoing.
Time for the other nuclear powers to draw lots on who will be the one to nuke the site from orbit just to be sure.

so, not quite as many chickens as i was promised.

in brighter news, Nebraska voted to eliminate slavery.

A constitutional amendment to eliminate slavery or involuntary servitude as a punishment for crime.
[ ] For
[ ] Against

Thank you, cleek.

I suggest that we wait until all the votes are counted, because we can't have a strategy until we know the details. Maybe a chicken here, a chicken there.

The summing up of death-cult conservative America as a piece of dog shit to scrape off the world's shoe:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-north-dakota-republican-died-of-covid-19-in-october-he-still-won-his-election/ar-BB1aGzi2?ocid=uxbndlbing

See y'all in the third definition of the gloaming:

https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=gloaming+definition&atb=v204-1&ia=definition

Be well and stay safe. Don't let a Republican breathe within a mile of you.

It's how they kill if you are out of their gunshot and 4x4 range.


My initial reaction aside from fear and loathing— four years and people still vote for this asshole—is that there must be something wrong with how pollsters go about their business. Yeah, probably within the margin of error, but I wonder if there is some systematic error involved too.

It's a squeaker. I'm not really sure what to say about it other than that.

North Dakota Republican died of covid-19 in October. He still won his election.

Are they gonna make him take his seat?

Can't remember being still alive to be a legal requirement for a representative or senator.
The important part is the certificate of life birth (rebirth does not yet count but SCOTUS will come to that later).

Good results from my point of view:

• All nine drug decriminalization or legalization measures on state ballots passed.

• Proposition 22 in California passed.

• Rent control in California failed.

• Affirmative action in school admissions in California failed.

• Abortion banning measure in Colorado failed.

• Legalized gambling in Nebraska passed.

Are they gonna make him take his seat?

All things considered, he'd probably do less damage than any of his likeliest replacements.

Hmmm, that whole thing didn't quite go as planned...

For those determined to find a sliver lining of some kind, consider this. If Trump ends up losing, he seems entirely likely to try to destroy the country in revenge. (How successful he'd be is another story. But he'd try.) However, as long as he thinks he might win, he'll hold off. And the closer we can get to Inauguration Day before he starts to trash the place the better.

Hey, it's not much. But I'm grasping at straws here.

As with the pre-born, his votes in the legislature will count twice.

If one is positioning oneself for the American future, being either not born yet or dead is the ticket.

Everyone in between, trudging through their actual lives rounded by a sleep, and their pre-existing conditions, is a fucking gig worker on the bubble who had better have done something lately, probably with their mouths, for a trump conservative with a gun.

I wonder if there is some systematic error involved too.

seems like it.

there's also too much emphasis on meaningless national polls, which happens because there is insufficiently-frequent polling in the handful of states that actually decide elections. on top of that, pollsters clearly have no idea who is actually going to vote and their models are failing.

also, polling isn't voting.

I wonder if there is some systematic error involved too.

seems like it.

From a piece in a magazine no one here but me reads:

"Two: The polling was largely wrong. Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar is now a superstar and deserves to be. The entire polling industry — to the extent the polling industry survives this — must now grapple with the ramifications of this comment from Cahaly in his interview with Rich:

One is the number of questions on its surveys. “I don’t believe in long questionnaires,” Cahaly says. “I think when you’re calling up Mom or Dad on a school night, and they’re trying to get the kids dinner and get them to bed, and that phone rings at seven o’clock — and they’re supposed to stop what they’re doing and take a 25- to 30-question poll? No way.”

Why does that matter? “You end up disproportionately representing the people who will like to talk about politics, which is going to skew toward the very, very conservative and the very, very liberal and the very, very bored, “Cahaly explains. “And the kind of people that win elections are the people in the middle. So I think they miss people in the middle when they do things that way.”"

Like everyone else, I expected voters to blow DT away. Looks like he's going to eke it out but that the R's will hold the senate. Gridlock isn't the worst that can happen from my viewpoint. Also, the House didn't exactly slam the shit out of R's, and since those are actual votes and not an electoral college, I'd say the D's are very lucky Sanders or Warren didn't get the nomination.

Other things:

1. Except for Fox, the media was all in for JB up to and including intentionally and openly refusing to look at evidence of corruption. After all of the hooey that made it into the mainstream press without any fact checking during the Kavanaugh and Barrett hearings, claims of 'lack of substantiation' don't hold up. IOW: the appearance of media stacking the deck probably isn't a good look unless you're already drinking the koolaid.

2. DT--right or wrong, most people don't take his BS seriously. Dem heads exploding when he denounced the rioting in Portland and elsewhere was not a great look ether. He scored points and the Dems committed large, unforced errors. Actually, they were forced errors, forced by the Nous' and LJ's on the far left. Keep it up. Don't change a thing.

3. Court packing, eliminating the EC and eliminating the Senate, but making PR and DC states--all "good moves". There is nothing people like more than people who lose by rules that apply equally to everyone--and have for over 2 centuries--denouncing DT for violating norms while calling for the elimination of every rule that prevents them from winning.

4. Next time be even more aggressively celebratory of abortion, taking guns away from law abiding citizens and raising taxes. These are key issues for undecided, middle of the road Americans.

5. Next to last, never stop telling people they and the country they love are fundamentally and irredeemably racist. People love that. So, don't let up.

6. Finally, dismiss, deride and sneer at anyone who points out the clear Marxist strain at the hard left base of the Democratic Party. Marxism, which doesn't exist in any part of the Dem Party, is actually kinda cool and the cool people know that. That Sanders said he was a Socialist but really didn't know that he wasn't makes a lot of sense too. The Dems weren't far enough left in 2016, they still didn't move far enough left in 2020 but maybe they'll get it right in 2024 and take over the country.

Later.

evidence of corruption

[citation required]

A small correction here:

There is nothing people like more than people who lose by rules that apply equally to everyone--and have for over 2 centuries-

The rules now are not the same rules written 250 years ago. Some are the same, some have been tweaked, some have been completely replaced.

Changing the rules is part of the deal in a self-governing polity.

And to the degree that "the rules" are norms, rather than law, "breaking the rules" is exactly what people are responding to when they talk about increasing the number of SCOTUS seats, etc.

As always, thanks for the lecture on what People Like Us should say and how we should behave.

Later.

Actually, they were forced errors, forced by the Nous' and LJ's on the far left.

If nous and lj are "far left", what was bob mcmanus?

Keep it up. Don't change a thing.

Other than sarcasm, and owning the libz, could you clarify if this (DJT's) is actually an America you like and wish to live in?

the clear Marxist strain at the hard left base of the Democratic Party

Since this seems to apply to nous and lj, if it weren't for the fact that this absurd notion was clearly believed by so much of the US population, this description would belong in a Monty Python sketch. The fact that McKinney, and so many Rs, believe it, does unfortunately show that the Dems have a long way to go to counter this nonsense. We know since the C4 investigation that the Cuban Americans in Florida, targeted by info from Cambridge Analytica, were bombarded by ads saying Biden was a socialist and in hock to communists. A way has to be found to deal with this rubbish.

the Dems have a long way to go to counter this nonsense.

I'm kind of through with it being the (D)'s job to persuade people that they aren't the Red Vanguard.

Somebody is propagating that noise. They are responsible.

Somebody is eating that stuff up like its apple pie with whipped cream on top. They are responsible.

People have agency, and are responsible for what they listen to, expose themselves to, embrace, and believe. I've been talking to conservatives for almost 20 years now, I don't see that there is one damned thing (D)'s can do or say that will get them to put aside the BS.

They want to believe it, so they do.

There is nothing people like more than people who lose by rules that apply equally to everyone--and have for over 2 centuries

You mean like insisting that there is something wrong with it taking a day or two to count all the legally and regularly cast ballots. Even though we have taken that long (or longer) for at least all my lifetime. Not to mention how long it took before that.

the hard left base of the Democratic Party

what makes this awesome is that it illustrates just how little the Republicans who parrot this know about actual Democrats, how little they know about the left in general, and that they have no clue what a 'hard' left looks like.

their entire political world is a fantasy of their own creation.

they don't know fuck about shit but boy do they want to lecture us about it.

Could you Marxists around here please read a little Marx first?

To catch up to the horsefeathers you are being accused of molting.

Conservatives may stick with Brietbart, FOX, and Stephen Miller's musings on Lebensraum via QAnon channels.

"most people don't take his (Trump's) BS seriously."

Then most people in this deeply unserious country wear Neville Chamberlain's underlinens for comfort, not support.

Yes, and Karl Marx's words didn't see the light of day outside the British Library, right?

I quit.

how little they know about the left in general, and that they have no clue what a 'hard' left looks like

Exactly. From a European (or even British/English) point of view, this is exactly the point.

I'm kind of through with it being the (D)'s job to persuade people that they aren't the Red Vanguard.

I completely understand, and sympathise with this russell. I just don't understand how the Republicans/Trumpistas can ever be got out of power, unless this kind of absurd misinformation is dispelled. In which case, reasonable people like you all will either have to live in a non-democratic international gangster state, or move to Canada.

i, for one, am not moving anywhere.

it's not their country, no matter how much they say it is.

It would take a hell of a lot more than DJT to compel me to move from the US.

I could be persuaded to move someplace warm, especially if the food was good and there was an interesting music scene. Barcelona? Bologna? Recife? Havana?

It would take a lot, my wife and I are pretty plugged in to a variety of things here where we are.

But I'll be damned if I'll move just to get away from loud orange people.

"Exactly. From a European (or even British/English) point of view, this is exactly the point."

Hardly any Americans have the nearest conception of living between the snapping jaws of true fascism on the so-called Right and true, thuggish Soviet-style totalitarianism on the so-called Left that existed in Europe during the first half of the 20th Century.

We're innocent ideological cosplayers in America by comparison .... most of the time.

I could move away, but when a train wreck is about to happen, I have a weird urge to move closer.

Contact this guy for Bologna:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/03/business/italy-us-citizenship/index.html

Trump asks for recount in MI?

wait, i thought counting votes after election day was un-American or something?

the people demand closure!

it's not their country, no matter how much they say it is.

***

But I'll be damned if I'll move just to get away from loud orange people.

Again, totally understandable, and in fact praiseworthy (not that either of you are angling for praise). But if they succeed in packing all the courts with (often incompetent) ideologues without integrity, and their foreign policy becomes just another lawless nuclear bully's cudgel, and they ignore climate science, and they entrench shameless gerrymandering in order to lock themselves into power forever, etc etc etc ad nauseam, how soon will this be a country you still want anything to do with?

The presidency is still in play, so maybe I am being premature, but how is it possible that such vast numbers of people, after three and a half years of Trump, are still prepared to vote for him? I have had to take two Ubers today (so outside my liberal bubble - although saying that, I have rightwing friends who agree with me on Trump), and FWIW both drivers (immigrants) were astonished and disbelieving about the US election. It is, to the rest of the world, incomprehensible.

how is it possible that such vast numbers of people, after three and a half years of Trump, are still prepared to vote for him?

the Trump they are told about by the people who keep the "conservative" thought bubble inflated is not the actual Trump. they think he's doing all kinds of great and wonderful things, that his lies don't matter because he's lying in support of hating liberals, that news of his failures is 'fake'. they live in a fantasy.

The presidency is still in play, so maybe I am being premature

Yes. Thanks.

Keep in mind, GftNC, that McKinney is among the most reasonable of those "vast numbers of people" who are "still prepared to vote for him".

Oh, sure, McTX might pipe up to declare that he himself did not vote for He, Trump. But McTx doesn't sound too chagrined that "vast numbers" did, does he?

--TP

....up to and including intentionally and openly refusing to look at evidence of corruption.

Excuse me. What evidence? It seems to be MIA.

A Biden presidency (most likely) coupled with a Dem House(for sure) and a R Senate (again, most likely) is a recipe for political disaster....but much better than a 2nd Trump term.

they don't know fuck about shit but boy do they want to lecture us about it.

This is unambiguously true.

Gridlock isn't the worst that can happen from my viewpoint.

From your mouth to Tom Friedman's lips. No, it isn't "the worst". Rethuglican control of all 3 branches is the worst. I'm thinking something like purgatory.

"vast numbers"....LOL.

When all the dust settles, Trump is likely to be 7 million votes behind Biden. Vastness may be overrated.

bobbyp, I sympathise with your point @ 02.16, but even then it will mean vast numbers taken in by an open grifter, crook and liar. cleek's point @ 02.04 is the only (if still extraordinary) explanation: they live in a fantasy.

how soon will this be a country you still want anything to do with?

It's already a country I have mixed feelings about, and has been for most of my life.

And, it's my country of birth. I'm American, it's kind of indelible.

Whether I want anything to do with it or not, my life is entangled with this country. It would be, even if I moved elsewhere.

Might as well stay and make the best of it. Whatever that amounts to.

But McTx doesn't sound too chagrined that "vast numbers" did, does he?

as long as the Marxists lose, it's all good, man.

and all Dems are really Marxists at heart.

it's pretty amazing how that one lie keeps the GOP alive.

Meanwhile:

Biden is up about 40K in MI, 20K in WI, and a very slender 8K in NV. Pretty solid lead in AZ, but he's ahead by a thumbnail in the other states.

It would crack me up if he won via the Trump style razor-thin margin in a couple of swing states. Especially if he won with exactly 270.

So close, yet just out of reach, for our Mr Trump. Assuming things play out that way, which they might not.

I try not to make too many meals of schadenfreude, but it's hard to resist the occasional snack.

We'll see how it turns out.

Is Marxism worse than intersectionality?

how is it possible that such vast numbers of people, after three and a half years of Trump, are still prepared to vote for him?

As cleek notes, they are living in an information (fantasy) bubble where they think that Trump actually did all the stuff he promised in 2016. Meanwhile in the real world....

As we learned from the regime of atheist Muslim Marxist Barack Obama and his wife who is secretly a man, Marxism and intersectionality go hand in hand.

It would crack me up if he won via the Trump style razor-thin margin in a couple of swing states. Especially if he won with exactly 270.

I would far, far rather he won by over 270, and then got a couple of states by razor thin margins in addition. Especially if he managed to drag a couple of marginal Senate candidates along with him.

the regime of atheist Muslim Marxist Barack Obama

Don't forget "tyrant". Looking at the current popular vote for Trump, you've got to laugh.

It's already a country I have mixed feelings about, and has been for most of my life.

And, it's my country of birth. I'm American, it's kind of indelible.

I do get this. I may have been influenced by the fact that my parents, both born South African, left SA in their 40s after Verwoerd became PM in 1958, only partly because (as a result of despairing family conversations) my 11 year old sister offered to assassinate him. And my beloved father, a very keen sportsman who had represented his country in his 20s, put his Springbok blazer away, and supported England thereafter, until Mandela was President and SA was playing in the Rugby World Cup, whereupon he wore it to watch with joy and drank champagne to celebrate their victory. So, in spite of everything, they stayed South African in their hearts.

But apartheid was a very stark issue, about which there was absolutely no moral doubt, and in those days (as they said to us) "you either stay and fight, or you get out". And they were in their 40s, and could (and did) have time to make a full, successful life elsewhere. They might have stayed and fought. Friends who did were killed or imprisoned. When I have met their children, I have been grateful for my parents' choice, which was largely made because of us.

We are not our parents, and I do not judge. But by God, these are weird fucking times.

Friends who did were killed or imprisoned.

We certainly all have choices to make.

Other countries have problems too, and there's no guarantee that any country will remain stable, peaceful, and democratic. The US has a long, mixed and rich history. I hope we get through this difficult time, and come to a more democratic, egalitarian, respectful and tolerant place. I've always been a Democrat because during my lifetime, that's what the Democratic party has stood for (as well as regulated market capitalism), and very much still does. Republicans have (in my voting lifetime) flirted with fascism, intolerance and racial hatred.

I'm not willingly giving the country to them. If I have to "stand my ground" in the face of their nastiness, I'll do that, and if we have to oppose them state by state, Democrats can become the party of states' rights. Whatever it takes. I'm not very physically brave, but I'll try to do what I can.

And lo, Biden speaks and reminds us what people sound like when they sound presidential. What a corrupt Marxist!

FFS.

But by God, these are weird fucking times.

Time to turn pro!!

:)

hilzoy quotes a (paywalled) piece from TPM saying:

We can’t ignore the fact that close to half the country saw the civic carnage of the last twelve months and asked for more.

This rather expresses what everybody else in the world (I speak for them, you know) has been marvelling at.

Fox News seems to have called Arizona for Biden, and is giving him 264! Cripes.

look at them Dems, trying to change the rules:

A group of protesters converged Wednesday afternoon on a facility in Detroit where election administrators are counting absentee ballots, demanding to watch the process alongside credentialed challengers who have been monitoring the tabulation of votes.

Videos posted by local media showed dozens of protesters streaming into the TCF Center in the city’s downtown. Some could be heard banging on windows, chanting “stop the count,” while others tried to force their way into the ballot counting area, according to a live stream posted by the Detroit Free Press. Outside the center, another group of demonstrators chanted, “count every vote.”

Shortly afterward, security officers shut the doors to the room where officials were tallying votes, barring any more people from entering, the Free Press reported. Guards could be seen in social media videos blocking the entrance, while election workers inside partially covered the windows with white posters.

The chair of Michigan’s Republican Party called the protesters “poll challengers,” though it wasn’t immediately clear if anyone from the group was credentialed for that purpose. More than 130 credentialed poll challengers from both parties have been inside watching the ballot counting all day.

someone fetch McTx a pillow to faint on.

And for light relief, this (absolutely genuine) photo retweeted by Stephen Mangan is captioned Dear Americans, THIS is what an election in a mature democracy looks like. Yours, The UK

https://twitter.com/StephenMangan/status/1323783983117832192/photo/1

oh the rules! when will those Dems ever stop breaking The Rules!?!?!?!

We have claimed, for Electoral Vote purposes, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (which won’t allow legal observers) the State of Georgia, and the State of North Carolina, each one of which has a BIG Trump lead. Additionally, we hereby claim the State of Michigan if, in fact...

Donald Marxist Democrat Trump

"claiming" states? when did that become a Rule ?

someone fetch McTx another pillow to faint on.

seriously, though: NV is too close for comfort, given that Biden has a margin of 0 EC votes right now.

i won't be surprised if The God Hero Of Republican Idiocy actually wins it.

Ah, Marina Hyde. As novakant recently remarked, and I paraphrase, she is a light in dark times:

With the future and democratic reputation of the American republic hanging in the balance, this is not an occasion for bombast. Rather it is time to reach humbly in the darkness, seeking only to summon such measured words as convey the intense dignity of this moment. In short, I think we all feel the hand of history on our pussies.

Donald Trump, America’s howling id, has not lost this election. Then again, Joe Biden has not won it. Shortly before 6am UK time, Biden addressed a rally – never a better time for one, mate – and told the Delaware crowd he was “optimistic”. In split-screen Trump addressed his Twitter retinue, and told them of “a big WIN”, adding “they are trying to STEAL the election … votes cannot be cast after the Poles are closed.” Expect him to invade Pole-land in the coming days.

Still, whatever happens now, no one can argue that a result this close was a repudiation of his way of doing business, so anyone expecting the gibberingly loyal Republican party to tack away from its current psychiatric space for the next couple of decades ought probably to get used to disappointment.

Shortly after 7am UK time, Trump addressed the nation with quasi-dictatorial fanfare, falsely claiming victory as well as electoral fraud, and seeking to disenfranchise voters in undeclared states. This at least had been predicted. There have long been signs that Trump would not be able to handle even potentially unfavourable election results. After all, just look how he handled male pattern baldness. Contrary to what a lot of people said over the past four years, Trump did eventually manage to build something described as an “unscalable” fence. Unfortunately, he only did it this week, and it now surrounds the White House.

And so on.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/ok-america-so-what-the-hell-happens-now

Gosh, not long ago Nate Silver was saying Georgia is on the brink of leans Biden. I thought it was all over, there.

A brief review:

Having all electors in a state vote for whoever won the popular vote in that state was not the original practice. It became the norm over time in the first third of the 19th C. Maine and Nebraska still allocate electors proportionately to the popular vote breakdown.

Amendments to eliminate or alter the Electoral College were proposed in 1950, 1956, 1969, 1979, and 2004. Hearings to consider proposals were held in 1992 and 1997. A lawsuit was brought by the state of DE and 11 other states to eliminate, by law, the "winner take all" allocation regime used by most states.

This is not a new thing.

There have been 27 amendments to the US Constitution. Six of those represent changes to the voting process, either by changes to the process itself, or by extending the franchise. Another three clarified or made changes to rules for presidential succession or term of office.

There is no constitutionally mandated number of SCOTUS justices. Originally there were six, then Adams trimmed it down to five to mess with Jefferson's head, then Jefferson bumped it back up to six, then three more were added as new circuit courts were created, then Lincoln added one more because Dred Scott, then Congress knocked it back down to seven so Johnson wouldn't be able to appoint any more, then bumped it back up to nine when Grant was elected, because they liked him better.

And it's been nine since 1869, and stayed there for the last 150 of our not-quite 250 years.

Roosevelt tried to bump it up again in the 30's. He couldn't get away with it, but it did work as a shot across Congress' bow.

We change the rules all the time. Not daily, but certainly in time scales measured in decades.

We are a self-governing republic. When the rules are not productive, we can change them. It even says so right in the Constitution.

Margin is down to 57k votes, NY Times estimates 310k votes left to count. If you look at the county returns, it looks like virtually all of it is in Biden leaning counties, so it is possible. Margin could end up less than 10k either way, which would trigger a recount. Facebook post being shared around by local folks indicates that in DeKalb county there are also 40K rejected mail/absentee ballots that have until Friday to be "cured". Current results in DeKalb have Biden up 83%-16%.

In 2022, (D)'s will be defending 12 Senate seats, (R)'s will be defending 22. Two of the Senate (R)'s are retiring, so for two of the 22 there will be no incumbent.

Members, don't get weary.

When I voted I was asked for an ID. But they accepted the expired ID I had on me.

"The most often noted difference between American elections among the visitors was that in most U.S. states, voters need no identification. Voters can also vote by mail, sometimes online, and there’s often no way to know if one person has voted several times under different names, unlike in some Arab countries, where voters ink their fingers when casting their ballots.

The international visitors also noted that there’s no police at U.S. polling stations. In foreign countries, police at polling places are viewed as signs of security; in the United States they are sometimes seen as intimidating."
UN Poll-Watchers ‘Amazed’ US Doesn’t Require IDs To Vote: November 6, 2012

Members, don't get weary.

Amen.

Priest: thanks.

CharlesWT: In the UK we don't need ID to vote, nor do we have police in (or outside) polling stations. I usually vote by mail these days.

Amen
Seconded.

"No ID" is not the same as "do not have to identify yourself".

If I vote in person, my name and address are verified before I can vote. Some bad actor or other could snoop my name and address and sneak in and vote instead of me, but you would not get away with too many of those before the poll worker would figure out something was up.

If I vote by mail, I sign the ballot and the signature is compared to my signature on file with the town clerk.

Everything is hackable, it's a question of what the level of effort would be and whether it would succeed enough times to actually make a difference.

Georgia looks like it might be close enough that "curing" rejected mail ballots might be important.

If I vote in person, my name and address are verified before I can vote

Same. They ask before giving ballot paper, we confirm verbally (or hand over the polling card we've been sent if we happen to have it), they check against a list of registered voters and then it's a go.

Everything is hackable, it's a question of what the level of effort would be and whether it would succeed enough times to actually make a difference.

Bingo! At least in my state, at that point they've committed multiple felonies that bring jail time. I don't see political operatives taking that sort of risk.

Historically, election fraud in the US on a large enough scale to swing elections happens at the "wholesale" level. Probably the most common example is in a small rural county where the county clerk fills out absentee ballots for people who didn't vote at all in order to win the election for themselves or (surprisingly often) the county sheriff. Even in the big cities -- eg, the Daley machine in Chicago -- it was only possible because there were crooked officials.

One of the reasons Colorado's vote by mail system wins plaudits for security from experts is that it includes a bunch of stuff to make wholesale fraud hard.

In the good old days, there was no need to rig election outcomes via stealth and impersonation. All it took was a hearty sandwich, a free mug of beer, and a ballot already filled out for the voter to turn in.

That's the American way. Somehow we got off track.

Also, back in the days of the real America, not many even knew what "ID" was, much less had any.

We really have gone to seed.

Estimated vote left in Georgia down to 260k, margin down to 47k. If the ratio of 10k gained per 50k votes counted maintains, that would swing it to Biden +5k. Can't say I'm expecting that, but would be nice.

It's over.

When I voted I was asked for an ID. But they accepted the expired ID I had on me.

At my polling place, I had one woman who was absolutely irate that she didn't have to show her ID. Apparently a believer in voter fraud as a major problem.

Fact is, in California it is ILLEGAL for poll workers to ask for ID. Or even to look at it if offered. Although, like russell reports of Massachusetts, they are asked for name and address.

And we confirm that they haven't voted already (either in person or a mail-in ballot received). Only once, over the years, have I encountered a situation where the individual was in the system as having voted. That was this time -- the voter's wife had sent in her mail-in ballot the envelope with his name on it rather than her own. We got it sorted out, with some flailing.

When I voted I gave them my voter registration certificate. They asked for an ID too.

I missed this myself. Puerto Rico voted for statehood.

https://twitter.com/DanielLarison/status/1324163380882640898

Good for Puerto Rico. Traditionally, it's the Puerto Rican Republican Party (it says so right on the label) which has pushed for statehood. So maybe they can convince McConnell to go for it. Here's hoping.

Maricopa County in Arizona has closed its ballot-counting facility to the media and the public amid safety concerns as supporters of Donald Trump — many of them armed — gathered outside the building, several reporters on the ground have reported.

when will GOP leaders speak up about the rampant violent Marxism?

when will GOP leaders speak up about the rampant violent Marxism?

LOL. God, we need to get our laughs where we can.

I realise we haven't heard anything from Marty for quite a while. I'm guessing his views on the election etc would be just as welcome and reasonable as McKinney's, but it would be good to know that he was OK, given his vulnerable health situation.

Fintan O'Toole is on fire - (depressing stuff, sorry)

Democracy’s Afterlife - Trump, the GOP, and the rise of zombie politics.

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2020/12/03/democracys-afterlife/

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