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October 15, 2020

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I personally know people -- young people, in fact, the up and coming movers and shakers of the Maine R party -- who go on about how in the good old days people with disabilities were cared for by family and church communities. Other people's money (i.e. taxes) should not be used for such purposes.

And that's only if they're talking about people with obvious and provable disabilities. The stuff they say about people who suffer from more difficult to diagnose, often invisible conditions like chronic pain is utterly vile.

This isn't a new low for them. It's a completely consistent ongoing one.

Do I need to spell out that they are anti-vaxxers too, and COVID-seriousness-deniers?

The NYT column neglects to mention the important point that 40%, give or take, of the voting eligible population doesn't vote in presidential years (number is higher in off-year elections). So the 20% of political junkies make up a third of the electorate (more in off-years).

Also, I suspect there are significant fractions of the non-junky voters who have strong single-issue opinions (anti-abortion, pro-gun, pro-choice).

Not to mention a possibly significant chunk of the non-junkys, who keep peace in the homestead by just voting however the junky thinks. Because, after all, it's all about stuff which (per the article) doesn't really matter much anyway.

But the disabled???

especially since Abbott himself is wheelchair-bound.

But, Abbott wheels himself on water.

It gives him a leg up from a standing start.

Stalin might ask: How many divisions does the League of Women Voters have?

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/firm-sued-for-recruiting-former-special-ops-to-patrol-minnesota-polling-places

Cease and desist GOP.

Now!

You really do NOT want to go a single step further in the direction you are taking your short fucking lives.

Now JDT, it's not just those scary League of Women Voters types.** There's also all them Senior Citizens, who are the majority of poll workers most places. Get some actual adults butting in on would-be pranks, and who knows what might happen? Maybe even (shudder!) nothing. And after all these months of frantic fearmongering, too!

** After all, wasn't that long ago they bulldozed their way into getting the vote. Next thing you know, they'll be trying to turn this into some kind of democracy. And not a guided one either.

I hope these aren't among the measures Marty wants to see employed to make voting more difficult:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/20/1988092/-Coincidence-DeJoy-s-U-S-Postal-Service-sabotage-hitting-swing-states-communities-of-color

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/20/1988053/-On-duty-Miami-cop-wore-a-pro-Trump-mask-to-a-polling-location-and-it-may-cost-him-his-job

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/20/us/poll-worker-fired-black-lives-matter-trnd/index.html

I wish the Black Panthers would get back in the game.

Only a headline; haven't even had a moment to open it. But waaaay to good not to share.
McConnell warns White House against making stimulus deal before election
McConnell's not dumb enough to believe waiting helps Trump. So he must have decided Biden will win, and this is step one on a reprise of the "wreck everything" approach he used on Obama.

McConnell says the wicked Pelosi is trying to game things so that the stimulus vote wreck the vote on Justice Handmaid.

because he's a liar.

Well, good on her for the unintended side effect, if it happens.

But since, unlike McConnell, Pelosi shows signs of general patriotic sentiment (admittedly, the comparison is a bit of a gimme), she seems unlikely to have stalled all this time for that. Not to mention the niggling question of how, back when negotiations were dragging thru the summer, she guessed RBG wouldn't make the new year and she'd need a stall.

I don't want the subject of Gov. Abbott to get too far in the past without making note of the following, from Wikipedia:

On July 14, 1984, at age 26, Abbott was paralyzed below the waist when an oak tree fell on him while he was jogging following a storm.[9][10] He had two steel rods implanted in his spine, underwent extensive rehabilitation at TIRR Memorial Hermann in Houston and has used a wheelchair ever since.[11][12] He sued the homeowner and a tree service company, resulting in an insurance settlement that provides him with lump sum payments every three years until 2022 along with monthly payments for life; both are adjusted "to keep up with the rising cost of living".[13] As of August 2013, the monthly payment amount was US$14,000.[13] Prior to becoming governor, Abbott subsequently backed legislation in Texas that limits "punitive damages stemming from noneconomic losses" and "noneconomic damages in medical malpractice cases", at $750,000 and $250,000, respectively.[14] While the settlement in Abbott's case was a "nonmedical liability lawsuit", which remains uncapped, Abbott has faced criticism for "tilt[ing] the judicial scales toward civil defendants."[14]

But the disabled???

Purely speculation... All of the states are suffering from budget crises. Disabled people account for a disproportionate share of total Medicaid expenses.

All states do insane things when there's a sudden very large hole in their revenue streams, accompanied by an increase demand for their services.

but nothing as insane as ... raising taxes to pay for things.

Oh. All states do it. Well that's all right then.

I wish the Black Panthers would get back in the game.

I give you the NFAC .

All states do insane things

No, they don't.

All states do insane things

I'll grant you
All states are tempted to do insane things, when funds suddenly run tight.

But well run ones, those run by adults, generally resist the temptation.

Place your bets...Election bet tracking.

Election Betting Odds:

"Donald Trump will probably lose the election.

As I write, The Economist says he has only an 8% chance of winning.

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, which came closest to predicting Trump's win in 2016 and has the best track record among modelers, gives Trump just a 12% chance.

But people who "put money where their mouths are" give Trump a better chance: 37%.

That's according to ElectionBettingOdds.com, the website I created with Maxim Lott. It tracks multiple betting sites around the world.

Though 61%-37% seems like a giant lead for Joe Biden, 37% means Trump is likely to win one-third of the time."
Will Trump Beat the Odds? Are You Willing to Bet on It?: Betting sites have a better record of predicting election outcomes than most polls and pundits.

Will Jabbabonk win in a fair fight? No.
Will he win the popular vote? No.
Will he win? Depends on how brazen GOP shenanigans will be.
My bet is that in several states the (presidential) election will end up in the courts. All bets are off, if GOP run states should use their prerogative to ignore the popular vote and to name the electors by vote of the legislative body. Assuming that by then SCOTUS has the new justice seated, I will not put bets against a new Bush v. Gore (although my guess is that in that case it will be 5-4 not 6-3 with Roberts unwilling to sacrifice his reputation).

but nothing as insane as ... raising taxes to pay for things.

No one wants to believe it, but there is a pretty hard political limit to what the combined state and local tax burden can be as a percentage of GDP. With very few exceptions it runs in the 9-12% range (towards the low end in conservative states and the high end in more liberal ones). I call it a political limit because legislators that vote to go beyond that limit find themselves out of a job come the next election, replaced by people who will reverse the tax increases.

Show of hands -- who thinks that with tens of millions newly unemployed, facing higher costs for big-ticket things like health insurance, that increasing the tax burden is a winning political move? With the exception of New Hampshire, no state government is allowed to borrow money to use for operating expenses so services are cut. I'll admit that reducing eligibility for Medicaid is unusual -- the more common targets are higher ed and roads. When Medicaid is targeted, it's usually by reducing payouts to providers. Which has its own set of problems: providers start turning away Medicaid patients or providers of specialty services (ie, those required by people with disabilities) go out of business.

I was on my state's legislative budget staff during the first two years of the Great Recession. It was ugly -- as the chair of the Joint Budget Committee put it, "We know we're making decisions that will kill people; all we get to do is decide which people." It would have been even uglier except the federal government "printed" large amounts of money and gave it to the states. A decade and a bit on, the national Republicans have decided to let the states twist in the wind instead.

IIRC, CA ran into a budget problem back in the Grey Davis days(?) and wound up printing IOUs as an interim measure.

Not quite 'legal tender', but more of a 'bearer bond'. Legal? Necessary.

There may be more of that at some point.

things cost money. it's time people learned that.

"We know we're making decisions that will kill people; all we get to do is decide which people."

Since they are deciding "which" post-born people to kill, all politicians and judges and their clearly identified, by name and address, financial sponsors in the so-called private sector, and their advocates in the so-called news media, should be required by law to identify by name the specific individuals they expect to be killed by their policy choices, and notices, required by each bit of legislation, should be sent out to those individuals alerting them to the threats with the names of the politicians whom are killing them, clearly identified, and not in the small print, since, except for those young people sent off to war, the rest of us are pretty much in the dark about who is trying to kill us at all times, though I have a pretty good idea who they are.

Sort of an explicit statement of "foreseen consequences".

Politicians should also be required to attend the funeral services of every individual among their constituency they have murdered.

It will be interesting, at the very least, to see how conservative political positions that expand so-called Second Amendment rights, not to mention populist political platforms, fare under these new rules.

"A decade and a bit on, the national Republicans have decided to let the states twist in the wind instead."

Start NOW.

Let's make America a more "interesting" experiment.


I see the subhuman Republican Party, probably assisted by their foreign paymasters, are already kind of aligning with my plan detailed above, and are sending out their own warning notices on behalf of their chosen killer:

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/voters-in-at-least-two-states-received-threatening-email-to-vote-for-trump-or-else

Look what Hunter Biden did:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/20/politics/white-house-5g-spectrum-no-bid-contract-rivada/index.html

I'll admit that reducing eligibility for Medicaid is unusual

What seems most unusual to me is the provision for denying social services to disabled people.

I know that, when things are tight, certain programs end up on the chopping block. And those programs often serve specific marginalized populations of various types, including people with disabilities of one kind or another.

I'm not sure I'm aware of a state specifically authorizing service providers to deny service to disabled people. Other than TX, in this case.

Maybe we're all misunderstanding what's going on in TX. Or, maybe not.

sending out their own warning notices

Marty says when (D)'s can't win, they want to change the rules.

When (R)'s can't win, they cheat. Cheat, steal, and lie.

They have become a party that is not fit to participate in a responsible self-governing polity.

It's possible that (R)'s will suffer big losses in two weeks. Should things play out that way, they could take some constructive lessons away from the experience.

Based on recent history, I'd say they are unlikely to do so.

I look forward to them becoming an irrelevance. May that day come soon.

Look what Hunter Biden did

It's the Putin model. Take public goods, privatize them, and hand them out to your cronies.

Another four years of Trump will turn this country into Putin-era Russia. Probably without the poisoning of political enemies, but one never knows. Opioids and firearm-assisted suicide instead of death by vodka.

There's a reason Trump is so deferential to Putin. And all of the other thugs he seems to fall in love with. The authoritarian kleptocratic state is the model.

I'm not sure I'm aware of a state specifically authorizing service providers to deny service to disabled people. Other than TX, in this case. Maybe we're all misunderstanding what's going on in TX. Or, maybe not.

Digging a bit further, it's not a budget thing at all. My bad. The explanation given is that Texas statute forbids discrimination on a number of grounds (eg religion or race), but not LGBTQ or disabilities. The official state code of conduct for social workers included LGBTQ and disabled as additional categories. The governor appears to have said the state board that oversees that code had exceeded its authority by adding categories beyond the statutory ones. The board then voted to remove the non-statutory classes. I don't know Texas case law at all; the governor's argument may be entirely correct, or complete nonsense.

Workers would still have to conform to the ADA and any that are nationally accredited would be bound by that code, which covers LGBTQ and the disabled.

My guess, given the timing, is now "whip up the base."

There's a reason Trump is so deferential to Putin. And all of the other thugs he seems to fall in love with. The authoritarian kleptocratic state is the model.

It's how he runs his companies. And he was elected on a platform of, essentially, bringing his business expertise/views to government. So why wouldn't he?

That's what, whether they knew/admitted it or not, his supporters opted for. That he hasn't delivered better (maybe have any military wounded and, even if only temporarily, not combat ready given immediate General Discharges) must be put down to incompetence. Certainly not lack of committment on his part to stealing everything that wasn't nailed down. For himself, not them; they're just the shills.

What WERE the Founders thinking?

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/could-third-amendment-protect-against-infection/616791/

Fascinating.

I'm sure it was a personal opinion, or they read it in Reason Magazine, by the Founders that they didn't much care for dying of smallpox contracted from quartered troops and then, like a light bulb going on over their heads (no, they didn't know about light bulbs, so THAT couldn't be), it occurred to them, like Archimedes declaring "Eureka!!" when he stepped into his bath and noticed the phenomenon of water displacement, that many others shared their opinion.

Could be once again relevant when the Republican Party begins once again to quarter troops in wombs.

No one wants to believe it, but there is a pretty hard political limit to what the combined state and local tax burden can be as a percentage of GDP. With very few exceptions it runs in the 9-12% range (towards the low end).

Just as a thought exercise, Michael, try taking this and replacing "tax burden" with something like "share of the GDP going to the very richest". (And say "No libertarian" rather than "No one" at the beginning, of course.)

Wonder where it runs? We can look at when the Gilded Age spun up the Progressives. Or we could look at our New Gilded Age. Give us a couple of data points to start from.

Keep in mind that Trump spent 90 minutes learning all there is to know, and more than anyone else knows, about nuclear annihilation.

Larison:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/trumps-arms-control-farce/

And somehow he did it without READING a single word during those 90 minutes.

speaking of cheaters.

The reputation of Rudy Giuliani could be set for a further blow with the release of highly embarrassing footage in Sacha Baron Cohen’s follow-up to Borat.

In the film, released on Friday, the former New York mayor and current personal attorney to Donald Trump is seen reaching into his trousers and apparently touching his genitals while reclining on a bed in the presence of the actor playing Borat’s daughter, who is posing as a TV journalist.

I don't see any solution to this conservative, subhuman EVIL other than savage violence on a national scale:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/20/1988202/-BREAKING-DeJoy-Pulling-All-Postal-Cops-Off-Duty-2-Weeks-Before-Election

They've killed The Rule of Law.

In its absence, all is possible.


via Digby:

'Philip Bump of the Washington Post reported on Tuesday that a recent Yahoo/YouGov poll showed that while a minority of GOP voters say they believe in QAnon, 50% of Republicans (fifty percent! That’s half of them!) claim to believe that high-level Democrats are involved in child sex-trafficking rings, and more than 50% believe that Donald Trump is working behind the scenes to dismantle them. This idea goes back to 2016 and Pizzagate, so it’s possible that many of these Republicans don’t even know they’re spouting QAnon conspiracy theories. But what’s the difference? Clearly tens of millions of Republicans have, as Joe Biden said on the stump the other day, “gone ’round the bend.”'

My approach is more and more along the lines of becoming, in spades, what the conservative republican enemy accuses me of being.

Though I have to admit I don't find Republican children in any way either attractive or appetizing, so I'm at a bit of a loss regarding how to proceed.

Maybe deport all American Republican parents from the country while confining their separated children to domestic re-education camps to fatten them up to become normal kids who like pizza and, eventually, high tax-rate paying citizens:

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/10/we-have-been-governed-by-4-years-by-the-worst-people-on-earth

via Juanita:

The National Catholic Reporter:

https://www.ncronline.org/node/193421/e

Dreher will cancel them.

While these conservative filth have been trying to murder all of us with mass disasters and gun violence called down on our heads by their vengeful, subhuman, murderous vermin God, we are forced to cool our heels decade after decade after decade waiting for them to croak of natural causes:

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/pat-robertson-prophesies-that-trump-will-win-reelection-then-the-end-times-will-begin/

When do we pull the plug on this shit?

Stepford Vermin:

https://www.mediamatters.org/congress/florida-gop-congressional-candidate-anna-paulina-luna-appeared-qanon-program-and-praised

yeah, but that one person fighting against police problems has nice things to say about Marx.

so, gotta stick with the GOP!

Cold-blooded murderers:

https://digbysblog.net/2020/10/trump-wants-to-kill-babies-in-blue-states/

Dreher will cancel them.

This has to have Dreher in a world of confusion.

Is he gonna cancel Il Papa?

He already has, after asking how many divisions the Pope has.

https://www.eschatonblog.com/2020/10/the-next-two-frames-are.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lQ_MjU4QHw

We are in grave danger because the subhumans have made us into a dull country.

Redrum. REDrum!

REDRUM!!!!

but that one person fighting against police problems has nice things to say about Marx.

There is the detail that the Marx in question was Groucho. But hey, close enough....

Hey, Groucho was also a Jew. And since he was (to my knowledge) no AIPAC member, major GOP donor or part of a RW Israeli government that's almost as bad as commie-Karl.

On the other hand his real estate deals were outright presidential: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB6VGKccul8

From here:

Donald Trump’s Twitter account was hacked last week, after a Dutch researcher correctly guessed the president’s password: “maga2020!”, Dutch media reported.

this is the man that has the power to launch nukes.

laugh or cry, take your pick. or, you know, vote.

h/t LGM

We live in a country where almost half the adults joined a cult that worships a guy who is either too stupid or too arrogant or too uninterested or all of the above to understand the simplest thing about computer security. And probably too stupid to memorize a password that's even slightly less guessable than that. And whose password has to be yet another form of adoration for his wonderfulness.

And whose staff is equally stupid / arrogant / uninterested / oblivious.

All the best people.

I suppose the hacker, oh, excuse me, "researcher," was too ethical to start posting things on Twitter in Clickbait's name? Now that would have been fun to see.

I wonder what his new password is.

IvankaIsHottt!

LOL. I was just going to suggest MAGA2024!

FWIW - jumped on a SwingLeft phone bank last Sunday - there were 1300+ people in the phone bank session.

So, however it turns out, people are at least making the effort.

A lotta people want him gone. Like, strongly.

Any fake twits on the Trump account would be immediately obvious.

Correct spelling, grammar, at least vaguely rational, all that stuff. Red flags, one and all.

A lotta people want him gone. Like, strongly.

I was standing in line at the post office a couple of days ago. One man was asking a clerk where he could register to vote. She told him that it wasn't at the PO, perhaps he could try the city hall next door. He told her he had just come from city hall and they had sent him to the PO. As he was leaving I gave up my place in line so I could stop him and explain that it was a county function and how he could register online. He told me he had lived here in Colorado for ten years and never registered, but he really, really wanted to vote against Trump.

As he was leaving I gave up my place in line so I could stop him and explain that it was a county function and how he could register online.

Thank you.

Thank you.

No thanks necessary. As I tried to drill into my children, anyone can do the right thing when they're up in front of a crowd. You get karma points for doing the right thing when no one is watching.

In 2012 I had taken the train to downtown Decatur for early voting, not as many locations then, it was at a DeKalb County office, on the Friday before the election. Which was the last day for it. I was on vacation, so I took advantage of the location to get lunch after voting at a popular tacqueria, almost always a long line out the door.

While in line, I overheard the conversation between a nearby woman and a couple of her friends. She was explaining that since she had to catch an early flight on Tuesday she was planning on early voting on Monday. When her friends didn't respond to this, I spoke up and let her know that would not be possible, she needed to vote today. Some other people in line confirmed what I was saying, and she quickly got on the phone with a family member to give them the proper information.

Some other people in line confirmed what I was saying, and she quickly got on the phone with a family member to give them the proper information.

I did some phone banking yesterday evening. Not my favorite thing, because very few people answer, but my local party said that it was needed so did it.

I talked to someone who didn't really recognize the Congressional candidate's name but was a democrat. I felt that the info I gave her may have been worth the two hours.

It's hard to justify the time spent, but that was a good moment, and I will do it again - in the hope that the two future two hours will yield more folks who will vote.

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/workforce/2020/10/new-executive-order-may-reclassify-wide-swaths-of-career-positions-as-political-appointees/

Joe Biden should use this fucked-up piece of dog shit to his advantage: identify all conservatives and republicans in the federal government and purge them from the payroll.

At gunpoint, cancel culture fuckers.

Conservative filth and vermin are stealing my hard-earned money by taxing me and permitting these subhuman animals to inhale and exhale on Federal property.

Or, Biden could ruin the country by rescinding this Trump dog shit.

It's a tossup.

There are lots of polls out there, but I tend to favor the betting odds. They seem, not necessarily less subjective, but more... disinterested.

FWIW, RealClearPolitics, which is basically a right-of-center political junkie site, aggregates the betting odds here.

If it's of interest.

At this point I mostly just want this to be over. Let's find out what we're dealing with and carry on.

The betting odds represent a pretty good opportunity from my POV.
I have not put real money on a US election since Obama’s first run.

Over the last week Trump’s odds have lengthened a bit (but tend to shorten overnight, which I assume is US true believer money).

There are lots of polls out there, but I tend to favor the betting odds. They seem, not necessarily less subjective, but more... disinterested.

At this point in 2016, didn't the betting odds favor Clinton to a similar degree?

On getting it over, my main worry now is that on Nov 4 we'll all be watching the mail ballot snafu roll into court in some key states.

Somewhat closer to the original COVID topic for this thread, our relocation process (and the increased exposure to the virus that entailed) is down to the last step of selling the old house. It seems to be showing briskly, and all of the experts say Front Range Colorado residential real estate is still in a mania phase, so hopefully that will get settled quickly.

Over the last week Trump’s odds have lengthened a bit (but tend to shorten overnight, which I assume is US true believer money).

Putin's laundering of some pin money, since his main laundering channel may be shutting down.

Trump's election in 2016 was Putin leaving a burning paper bag of dogshit on America's doorstep, ringing the bell and running away.

As Dubya once asked "is America learning?". We shall see.

At this point in 2016, didn't the betting odds favor Clinton to a similar degree?

I have no idea.

This isn't 2016. Trump isn't the scrappy underdog outsider, he's not running against the inexplicably most hated political personality of her generation. There is no Biden equivalent to Benghazi or the Great Email Fiasco, and Trump's attempts to manufacture one are sad, pathetic, and risible, and are generally seen to be so.

At this point, other than his loyal supporters, everyone is freaking sick of Donald J Trump.

He could still win, it will just be a much, much bigger lift than it was in 2016. And that was a squeaker.

On getting it over, my main worry now is that on Nov 4 we'll all be watching the mail ballot snafu roll into court in some key states.

I have no doubt it will be a non-stop shit-show.

At some point it will be over, we'll know where we stand, and we'll try to carry on from there.

I just want these freaking soul-sucking zombie people to go the hell away. Go back to reality TV, fine with me. I don't have to watch that. Sell steaks and crappy wine to all the people who think buying that stuff is gonna make their lives a tiny bit more glamorous. More fools them, but that's not my problem.

Just go the hell away. All of them. Trump, his spawn, his entourage, his enablers. Get the hell out.

Maybe, if we're lucky, we can find our way back from the callous brutal inhuman asinine bullshit we've let ourselves descend to. I give it even odds at best, but with another four years of what we have now I'd put the odds at zero.

We aren't the country we think we are. Maybe we can become the country we think we are, but that is not going to happen under Trump or anyone like him.

Let's get this over with, see what's left, and see if we can go on from there.

the inexplicably most hated political personality of her generation

who won the "Most Admired Woman" poll in the US, 17 years in a row until Michelle Obama took the title.

[a nit i can never not pick]

Just go the hell away. All of them. Trump, his spawn, his entourage, his enablers. Get the hell out.

FYLTGE

Who are these electors who think the most admirable thing a woman can do is marry a man who becomes president?

Half a million in cash, the little republican fuck had on him:

https://www.eschatonblog.com/2020/10/500k-cash.html

More at the link:

https://abcnews.go.com/News/teenage-suspect-allegedly-plotted-kill-joe-biden-federal/story?id=73774048

Must have been paid $250,000 each by both sides, hanh?

He inherited the money from his uncle/father.

"Just go the hell away. All of them. Trump, his spawn, his entourage, his enablers. Get the hell out."

i want that yard sign.

1. Hillary

the inexplicably most hated political personality of her generation

who won the "Most Admired Woman" poll in the US, 17 years in a row until Michelle Obama took the title.

[a nit i can never not pick]

Someone who inspires strong feelings can inspire them in opposite directions, especially when helped along by decades of deliberate prodding by provocateurs.


2. Cash

How long does it take to accumulate half a million in cash? (Rhetorical question, and I know I have little to no imagination for the methods of crooks.)


3. Trump, his spawn, his entourage, his enablers. Get the hell out.

If Mrs. Clickbait III fits under "entourage," fine. If not, she needs a category too.

Half a million in cash, the little republican fuck had on him

his booking picture looks like it was taken at a Great Clips.

his booking picture looks like it was taken at a Great Clips.

You mean like the before in a pair of before and after pics? ;-)

He does appear to be wearing one of those apron thingies they put on you when you get a haircut. Weird.

I think, in some jurisdictions, they started covering people for mug shots because the thought was that the differences in clothing could influence witnesses and others viewing the mug shots.

How long does it take to accumulate half a million in cash?

WaPo story says the $509K is believe to be "his inheritance".

so i guess he went to the bank and said "empty this account, in cash" ?

that's 280,000 pounds, if he got it in pennies.

Interesting article about how you might do that, how long it would really take (maybe a few days, depending on how much cash the bank keeps on hand), and what red flags it raises with the government. Apparently not enough red flags were raised. Or not the right kind.

any deposit or withdrawal over $10k gets reported to the feds.

so, it's odd.

any deposit or withdrawal over $10k gets reported to the feds

But my impression is that they don't necessarily care, if there's no evidence of criminal activity. I haven't read the news about him in any detail, so I have no idea, but maybe whoever bequeathed it to him had already been hoarding cash for a long time. People are strange....

Still depends on how often they happen. If the bank makes less than one report a week, it's odd. But if they make dozens every day? It's still reported, but it's no longer that odd for the bank folks.

Likewise for the folks getting the reports. And they doubtless see more than any one bank. Be intetesting to know why the Feds didn't find this particular case noteworthy.

Articles say the cash is "believed to be his inheritance." I find it interesting that none of the reporting finds it interesting that there was all that cash. Someone last night said "inheritance from father or uncle...."

Father or uncle could have been withdrawing $1000 from an ATM every week, which I suspect is completely unremarkable as far as banks and the feds are concerned. At that rate it would take about ten years to accumulate half a mil -- and twenties weight a lot less than pennies. ;-)

I mean, especially all that cash in the possession of a 19-year-old.......

his mother apparently told him to skip out on bail. i suspect her judgement might not be great.

so, maybe that money isn't exactly clean.

But my impression is that they don't necessarily care, if there's no evidence of criminal activity.

Yes, that's true. But $500K is $10K times 50, and this guy had previously been brought on up child pornography charges.

It is an odd set of circumstances.

Someone last night said "inheritance from father or uncle...."

That's strange. I didn't know that, and my comment about "uncle/father" was meant as a joke, meaning that his father was also his uncle. I did know about the inheritance part, but heard nothing of the source.

hsh...maybe you were the source. Sometimes I skim around too fast for my own good.

The circle is complete.

hsh...maybe you were the source.

I suspect our friend hairshirt may be the source of many hijinks and shenanigans....

Team Biden, Trollin Hard

I can understand Team Biden staying focused on their strongest issue. But others are keeping some of Trump's other comments* high profile
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/545-children-are-still-separated-from-their-families-what-if-one-of-them-were-yours/2020/10/23/63d3be04-154f-11eb-ba42-ec6a580836ed_story.html

* Can't really call it a "misstep." Unless you want to embrace that his true and sincere beliefs (yes, he does have a couple) are disasters.

Super Marxist if true...

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewMannix/status/1319666269835173888

Charges coming against right wing provocateur in Minneapolis protest fire and shooting

Super Marxist if true...

Since National Socialist has socialist right there, then of course he is a marxist. And since marxists are opponents of nazis, then he's also an antifascist.

You see how deep the conspiracy goes, Antifa are everywhere.

Hail Hydra.

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/10/21/hey-trump-can-still-win-really/

FWIW, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon says:

Biden +28 among the 48% who say they’ve voted already, Trump +11 with the rest.

Now I really look at this, I wonder exactly who "the rest" are. I have always been honest here about my innumeracy, so what the hell does this mean? Is it, of the 48% who have voted, 28% have voted for Biden, 11% for Trump, and 9% for others? This last seems unlikely at the moment, so I have obviously misunderstood. Can it possibly mean of those that have NOT voted, Trump leads by 11%? Eeep.

Can it possibly mean of those that have NOT voted, Trump leads by 11%? Eeep.

yep.

that's how i read it.

chicken-counting season is the worst season of all.

OMG, I hoped my innumeracy was leading me astray. Thanks cleek (I guess...)

Can it possibly mean of those that have NOT voted, Trump leads by 11%?

For various reasons, including Trump's own disparagement of voting by mail, early voters this year tend to vote (D).

We should expect proportionately higher support for Trump among in-person election day voters.

It ain't over until it's over.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/

Concerning that Treisman kid with his guns and his porn and his half a mil in cash, hsh and I aren't the only ones weaving a circle of . . . something. From upthread, russell quoted me and then commented:

me: But my impression is that they don't necessarily care, if there's no evidence of criminal activity.

russell: Yes, that's true. But $500K is $10K times 50, and this guy had previously been brought on up child pornography charges.

It is an odd set of circumstances.

This has been niggling at me, because I thought I had read that the guy, Treisman, had no criminal history. And I did!

I was thinking, as I skimmed headlines and bits of articles, that this guy had just been arrested, like, last week. So if the child pornography charges are from September, then they would indeed be "previously." Maybe russell thought the same thing.

But actually, Treisman was arrested in May (my bold below):

The 19-year-old searched online for Biden’s home address and for night-vision goggles, and purchased an AR-15 in New Hampshire, according to federal court documents first reported Thursday by WBTV. At one point in May, Treisman ended up at a Wendy’s within four miles of Biden’s home in Delaware. And when he was arrested later that month in North Carolina, police searching his van found four rifles, a 9mm handgun, explosive materials, books on bomb making, and $509,000 in cash that’s believed to be his inheritance.

Those revelations all come in an order that a federal magistrate judge filed earlier this month outlining why Treisman, who was indicted by a federal grand jury in September on child pornography charges, should remain in custody.
...
Treisman is being held without bail. Judge Joe L. Webster, a federal magistrate in Durham, N.C., noted that while the teen did not have any prior criminal history, the court concluded that “the record establishes by clear and convincing evidence that no combination of available release conditions would reasonably assure the safety of the community.”

It doesn't explain why the arrest was only reported now; the trigger for the current flurry of news articles was this judge's order, but that doesn't explain why the arrest itself didn't make the news early last summer.

The $ part is still weird too.

I'm not a bit surprised to hear that about the hispanic vote in Florida from JDT's WaPo link, because last night on C4 News they continued their exposee (don't know how to do acute accent) on the Cambridge Analytica hack of data they have from 2016 with detailed details (!) of over 200 million Americans, falling into their three categories of "Deterrence", "Persuade" and "Core Trump" (can't remember the name of the last group, but it was something like that). Considerable numbers of hispanic voters fell into the first two categories, in heavily hispanic neighbourhoods, so C4 News's "Diplomatic Editor" (title, not description) went round interviewing some of them, as she had with the black voters in the "Deterrence" category when I posted about it before. Again, they didn't know there was a database containing such info about them, but some talked to her, and disclosed that they had been getting Trump ads saying that e.g. Biden was a paedophile, sent to them on social media by "friends and family". When she said "But did you believe it, that he was a paedophile?" one woman said, "Well, not necessarily."

I'm sure you can find the whole bit (or an even longer version than the one that aired), on C4's website. I don't have the heart to snow you guys under with more C4/Cambridge Analytica stuff like I did before. I reckon you have other fish to fry.

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