The Fix

by wj

The most optimistic estimates suggest that we might have a covid-19 vaccine that works by the end of the year. Let’s assume, for the sake of discussion, that actually happens. Then what?

Well the obvious first step is to get production ramped up to produce enough doses to handle the whole country. (Well, the whole world, but that’s out of scope for this particular discussion.) The various pharm companies working on the vaccines know how to do that. They’ve had practice, after all. No doubt it will be slower than we would like, but it won’t be that bad.

But then, we have to actually distribute and administer the vaccines. Which may be a problem.

What brings this to mind is a column from Megan McArdle in the Washington Post entitled If we want any vaccine to actually work, we have to prepare for it now Now McArdle is a pretty staunch libertarian (not up to Charles, perhaps, but pretty strong). So it is noteworthy that when she talks about not screwing up the vaccine the way we screwed up the first phase of the corona virus response, she says “That kind of vaccination campaign — the kind that could really make everything go back to normal — is going to take a vast, coordinated public effort on a scale that we may not have seen since the United States rolled out draft cards and ration books during World War II." Further

The logistics alone are daunting. We might not reach true normal until a sizable majority of the country is vaccinated, and our traditional method for fighting infectious disease — require vaccination to attend primary school — won’t achieve that. How do we purchase, store and distribute all those doses? How do we keep track of who has been vaccinated, particularly if vaccination requires multiple doses? All this needs to be resolved at the federal level, as much as possible, because in a country as open and mobile as the United States, we’re all only as well as our sickest fellow state.

This from, as I say, a devout libertarian.

And, as she notes, the logistical problems pale beside the political problems. Not only is the whole subject of the virus hopelessly politicized – even over something as trivial as wearing masks. But there is also the pre-existing anti-vaccination fervor on the right and left. To the point that it will probably require relatively draconian penalties (and maybe more) to get some people to accept the vaccine.

In short, there’s an excellent chance that we won’t be organized, we won’t even start to get organized, to distribute the vaccine until mid-January (i.e. when we have a new administration and a new Congress). So when we will actually get it done is hard to say. Maybe next summer...?

Comments

[nous]

My anti-mask, anti-vaxx relatives are posting statements from their local sheriff advising why he will not enforce the Governor's directive that everyone wear a mask. I guarantee that they will balk at any effort to mandate a vaccine. And they are very active in the local GOP.

We will be lucky to get any degree of widespread compliance. We may end up with armed protests again instead, and complete non-enforcement.

I've started reading up on Yugoslavian Nationalism again.

Welcome to ideological Balkanization.

[M. Bouffant]

Dr. Zeke Emmanuel was on the telly last night, his thoughts were it might be November 2021 before approximately 250 million doses were administered; he also thought it possible that two doses may be required.

Meanwhile, UCSF is no longer pursuing vaccines: "With coronavirus antibodies fading fast, vaccine hopes fade, too"

[CharlesWT]

Possibly good news on vaccine developments.

"The COVID-19 vaccine being developed by researchers at Oxford University and the pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca reportedly stimulates the body's immune system in early trials to produce both antibodies and killer T-cells. Antibodies protect against infections by binding to pathogens in order to prevent them from entering or damaging cells, and by coating pathogens to attract white blood cells to engulf and digest them. Longer-lasting killer T-cells work by finding and destroying infected cells in the body that have been turned into virus-making factories."
Good News: COVID-19 Vaccines Stimulate the Production of Both Antibodies and T-Cells: Antibodies may decline, but T-cells could provide effective long-term protection.

[John Thullen]

As Gary Johnson might ask: "What's a McArdle?"

Not interested in having a "devout" libertarian explain the logistics of government doing anything.

F*ck them. We have no government, a condition they have championed for decades. They canceled it.

There are no antibodies for what ails us from the conservative and libertarian viruses breathed on us by the mouth breathers all these years.

Libertarians are witches who couldn't organize a witch hunt.

The only proper public stance for her ilk is f*cking STFU silence.

Covid-19 and McArdle are both libertarians.

They should get a reality show together.

Wait, we're living it now and we're running for our lives.

I, being a running dog on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party all these years, apparently, bought AstraZeneca stock earlier this week after watching these little vaccine companies, who for years have produced nothing but news releases and haven't been able to get a vaccine for any kind of flu past clinical trials, go "volatile" to the upside beyond all sense, but natch underwritten with my tax money, given to them by filth who hate taxes.

Not that I mind. I mean, perhaps if government all these years had fully funded the hunt for really effective vaccines against the common flu via these companies' platforms, we might not be losing 30,000 or more human Americans a year to that plague, but of course, conservatives and libertarians use THAT merely to tell us we shouldn't be so political correct as to be concerned with the 140,000 deaths from Covid.

And we might have been more prepared at both government and private capital levels for what we have up our asses now.

But, like they say, an ounce of prevention might cost a republican his yacht, so last man overboard wins.

Why, it's a pittance. Go on about your lives.

We'll meet you at the end with body bags and mobile morgues, which like Nazi government, conservative republican government seems good at having on hand for all eventualities.

They are lousy at train schedules, however.

[byomtov]

I don't know beans about this stuff, but I wonder if the feds could set up, now, a manufacturing facility to produce whatever vaccine researchers find.

Is the manufacturing process so dependent on the specifics of the vaccine that that makes no sense, or is there at least a sort of "baseline" factory that could be built, and then just customized to a specific product?

Anyone know?

[sapient]

Anyone know?

I don't, but I have read that private corporations are trying to ramp up delivery mechanisms (glass vials, needles, etc.), an effort that the feds could seemingly bolster. Too bad I don't trust the federal government under Trump to do anything that doesn't involve raking taxpayer money into the pockets of the crony network.

[sapient]

By the way, to follow on my 9:40, I was and am a champion of big government when well-run and not corrupt. Obama comes to mind.

[sekaijin]

I'm about getting to the point where I think, as awful as it is, we may have to resort to rationing it in the sense of this: People who are hostile to the vaccine don't get it, while people who want it get it.

I don't see how wasting money and resources on people who are too infantilized, too psychopath-ized, too ludicrously stupid, too unfit for any kind of governance other than dictatorship to grasp what is in their interest, is worth the time.

They've gotten exactly everything they ever wanted, plus a few things they didn't know they wanted until it presented itself to them. They got a president in their lousy image, garbage governance, things that feel good presented as truth, all the hatred that they can gin up, and a privately-run Pravda influenced in no small measure by those who used to crank out the actual Pravda.

Megan McArdle can go piss up a rope. She's right, to be sure, but she's way too goddamned late in the day.

There. I said all that. I out-John Thullen-ed John Thullen, without the eloquence and bon mots.

Never have I been more furious and more distraught at what a failure of a country we made out of ourselves. If I were black, I suppose I wouldn't be so surprised - hell, it's failed it's black population for dog's ages. In that sense, I'm showing my so-called privilege as a white person. I guess also in another sense, it's an equal opportunity felcher - it now goes after everyone, including even its supporters.

Mississippi Goddamn? More like America goddamn.

[wj]

I have read that private corporations are trying to ramp up delivery mechanisms (glass vials, needles, etc.), an effort that the feds could seemingly bolster.

They could. But the far greater need is to coordinate doing the actual vaccinations, tracking who has gotten one, who needs the second one (if multiple doses are required), etc. Private corporations can do production. But delivery isn't going to happen effectively without Federal government coordination.

[wj]

we may have to resort to rationing it in the sense of this: People who are hostile to the vaccine don't get it, while people who want it get it.

I don't see how wasting money and resources on people who are too infantilized, too psychopath-ized, too ludicrously stupid, too unfit for any kind of governance other than dictatorship to grasp what is in their interest, is worth the time.

As a way to deal with the anti-vaxxers personally, I definitely see the attraction.** But then, there are their kids, who didn't choose to have parents who are nut cases. So you'd need to put those kids into foster care to get them taken care of. Doable, I suppose, but not a trivial exercise.

** The problem, of course, is the folks (typically 5% to 10% for a vaccine) for who the vaccine doesn't work. Their hope is "herd immunity" keeping them from encountering it. And herd immunity requires all those anti-vaxxers getting dragged in. Kicking and screaming though they doubtless will be.

[John Thullen]

Government does work .... for thee but not for us:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/7/15/1961008/-Florida-can-t-meet-residents-COVID-19-testing-needs-but-pro-sports-in-Florida-have-no-problem

Trump is swabbed and tested and his filthy corrupt offspring and in laws are too, hourly.

Their Covid tests come back faster an order for a Goya Taco bowl.

Just as Putin is as the proletariat has to pass through a virus free wind tunnel to get at him.

Trump is tested by deep state government employees, who Americans have been trained by republican cucks to despise in any other role except sucking republican dick, probably William Barr's.

Circuses.

No bread.

Extinct civilizations will attest to the outcome.

As much as I desire to see the Chinese government overthrown by the Chinese people, I'd like first to give them a shot at governing Florida, Oklahoma, Arizona, Orange County, North Dakota, and Texas before we jump to conclusions.

[John Thullen]

I left out Georgia.

It should have been left out in 1865.

[wj]

I'm afraid you're living in the past a bit. Orange County is pretty purple these days. Tending bluish, actually. (California does have dark red areas. But Orange County is no longer among them.)

[Marty]

Yeah let's bring them in kicking and screaming that will work. Let's setup a door to door search capability to forcibly bring them in after our compliance database flags them as out of compliance.

ICE can lead but the sanctuary cities wint help enforcement, courthouses wi be considered safe places but once you step outside they just shoot you with a vaccination dart.

On another note, severalnof the promising vaccines are being produced in come today with a target 1b doses to be available at the end of trials

Other than the natural time it takes to distribute a billion doses, the supply chain for vaccinations is pretty well defined. Well except for that centralized compliance database, we can just use an instance of Salesforce to capture the data.

[sekaijin]

"But then, there are their kids, who didn't choose to have parents who are nut cases."

And that's what brings me back to something somewhat more humane. Yes, the kids, who have to be liberated from their bigoted parents.

I don't have a clue as to where you begin with this, or what you an do with a country with just enough people like this. Yes, they are a minority. But they're one that can do a lot of damage, and they're at work now.

[John Thullen]

"Yeah let's bring them in kicking and screaming that will work. Let's setup a door to door search capability to forcibly bring them in after our compliance database flags them as out of compliance."

I don't think it's going to be that organized, since to organize is held to violate the Constitution, unless it's conservative authoritarianism doing the organizing, without visible ID.

It's amazing how things in such a short amount of time can go from merely bad to a total shit storm:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXGu2fKG84o

[CaseyL]

Trump decided that the CDC would stop collecting data on Covid-19 cases, and the CDC very obediently stopped collecting Covid 19 case data. Covid 19 case data will now go to HHS, where the numbers will be massaged to make Trump look good.

Who needs a vaccine? With no more tests and no more reported cases, the virus will be gone by Election Day!

[Nigel]

Is the manufacturing process so dependent on the specifics of the vaccine that that makes no sense, or is there at least a sort of "baseline" factory that could be built, and then just customized to a specific product?

Short answer, yes (though there are multiple vaccines of the same type).

There’s contract manufacturing capacity for different types of vaccines, but not on the scale required. However the US government is funding several of the promising efforts, and capacity is being built. Some of the large pharmas are also funding their own efforts - Pfizer, for example will have 100m doses manufactured before the year end, and will be able to manufacture a billion within twelve months.
Like all these efforts, they’re starting bulk manufacturing before the results of clinical trials are out. It’s a sensible gamble, made in the knowledge that they might have to junk the whole lot.

Europe and China are doing similar things. The Oxford vaccine has inked license deals (through AstraZeneca) for it to be produced worldwide. They don’t expect to make a profit out of it.

My overall impression is that government and the industry have done a very good job in thinking the production side of this through. And the mechanics of vaccination will vary fro country to country (I think compliance will be high in the UK, for example).

[Hartmut]

Even if there is a vaccine (and one that will not protect you against COVID-19 but make any other corona virus lethal), do you trust this administration to prevent shameless price-gouging? I would also check whether Jabbabonk and his whole Sippschaft (plus cronies) is already buying stocks in the companies.
If they could handle the logistics (which I do not believe), I would not put it beyond them to try to abuse it by having it distributed very unequally to their political advantage (the same way they tried it with masks and tests).
Would it be a really unimaginable scenario, if there was a 'get your corona shot at your polling place' (but only in red districts) program?

[Nigel]

... reportedly stimulates the body's immune system in early trials to produce both antibodies and killer T-cells..

It’s more complicated that that.
Killer T cells’ are circulating anyway; they need directing by helper T Cells to recognise their target, and that’s what the vaccine appears to be doing (it’s actually more complicated that that, too, and only partially understood).

Memory T cells, which help maintain long term immunity, were certainly produced as a consequence of infection by the original SARS virus, and were still detecting them in recovered patients a decade and a half later.

Antibodies to specific infections tend to fade quite rapidly anyway; what we're seeing with Covid might just be that - for now there’s simply not enough evidence to know one way or the other.
Given that there’s so far been no credible evidence of even a single case of re-infection, then it seems quite likely that immunity sticks around for a while.

[Nigel]

do you trust this administration to prevent shameless price-gouging?

No - but they don’t have control of the whole process.
Pfizer, for example, who are funding their own effort without any government money, have committed to providing their vaccine at cost.

I think the industry (or at least the large established companies) has calculated that there’s no mileage in price gouging, as it might risk their ability to maximise profits in more normal times.
For once they’ve done the right thing.

[Nigel]

Note on the Pfizer vaccine... it’s an mRNA vaccine, and an order of magnitude or more cheaper to produce that the protein vaccines made with living cells in bioreactors.
So their manufacturing risk is perhaps $50-100m, versus $1bn or more.

Running the clinical trials is possibly more expensive for them.

[russell]

I don't see how wasting money and resources on people who are too infantilized, too psychopath-ized, too ludicrously stupid, too unfit for any kind of governance other than dictatorship to grasp what is in their interest, is worth the time.

Because they don't just put themselves at risk, they put the rest of us at risk as well.

Yeah let's bring them in kicking and screaming that will work

Nothing will work, because the people in question are knuckleheads. So the rest of us will have to work around them, as best we can.

If there was a way to isolate them from the general population, that might be helpful. But there isn't. So we'll just have to try to stay the hell away from them.

To the OP, if a vaccine is brought to market while Trump is POTUS, it will not be made publicly available in effective way. There are probably 100 ways to screw it up, he'll find them all.

[cleek]

the first thing Trump will do is claim the vaccine as his own, to brand it the "Trump Vaccine". maybe he'll put TRUMP on every vial and flood the market with Trump-brand syringes (made in Jina). whatever the details, he will try to politicize it to his benefit. which will keep a lot of people from getting vaccinated - either from mistrust or spite.

he's the worst person for every situation.

[bobbyp]

If there was a way to isolate them from the general population, that might be helpful. But there isn't. So we'll just have to try to stay the hell away from them.

I for one am not concerned about this. After all, to hear conservative columnist whine, we have the ultimate unstoppable weapon - CANCEL CULTURE.

[John Thullen]

Cancel Culture: The Chicks; every Republican identified as a RINO since the late 1980s by right wing filth and run out of town.

Nothing new. In fact, conservatives gave us instructional teachable moments on how to cancel, with malignant glee.

Perhaps we'll need a Banality Vaccine:

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/americans-tolerate-1-000-people-100000653.html

Meanwhile, Trump and his fascist republican regime, which reaches deep into the American psyche, are hoping we don't see them licking the bones clean as we accept 1000 deaths a day.

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/07/what-the-trump-campaign-lacked-was-a-little-structuring

[wj]

do you trust this administration to prevent shameless price-gouging?

No - but they don’t have control of the whole process.
Pfizer, for example, who are funding their own effort without any government money, have committed to providing their vaccine at cost.

Can you imagine the Trumps slow walking FDA approval of any vaccines they don't make money on? Just to maximize their market share. Because I sure can.

[Marty]

If there really is an effective vaccine then they will mostly be putting themselves at risk.

There are a pretty good chunk of people who, based on what type of vaccine ir is, may not be advised to take it, so those people will be at risk also.

And then there is this, https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/medialibrary/24-coronavirusw.jpg?x19699 , the test of this is going on in NY and NJ now.

Which would mean that the vaccines in general are of questionable financial value unless they are developed in a way to be safely updated to create an annual vaccine against the latest mutation.

[John Thullen]

Regarding antibodies and reinfection:

https://news.yahoo.com/infected-covid-19-twice-experts-090014026.html

[Hartmut]

The nightmare scenario is (as said above), if the vaccine works against the one virus but leads to a fatal overreaction against a similar one. Iirc one of the vaccines against MERS, SARS or one of the related others had exactly that effect.
What if the 'we need the vaccine BEfORE the election' guys win the day and the above turns out to be true but is not recognized (or gets simply ignored) because the forced rush prevents thorough testing?
(first guess: the production company is toast, the anti-vaxxers get a huge boost in prestige, the US will need new, more effective ways to get rid of all the bodies and somehow it will be successfully blamed on liberals).

[russell]

To the OP, if a vaccine is brought to market while Trump is POTUS, it will not be made publicly available in effective way.

I'll revisit this.

Our experience with tests for COVID-19 has been that the initial federal effort was bungling, and that statements from the POTUS and folks speaking for the POTUS other than Fauci have ranged from incoherent, to openly hostile to testing.

And yet, testing is pretty widely available at this point.

The story with PPE is a little different, I think supplies of those are still kind of a hot mess. A corrupt hot mess.

So, a jump ball. It could go either way, or several ways all at once. And states and local governments can, to some degree, make up for federal incompetence.

Hopefully whatever becomes available will be available as widely as makes sense, from a medical point of view. And, at a cost that people can afford. Free would be good.

And hopefully after January we will no longer have to factor the Trump chaos factor into any discussion of this.

Also, as an aside, there has been a lot of press about what a horrible, uncomfortable experience the PCR test is - the nasal swab test. A couple of weeks ago, I had the test, twice (my results were negative - no COVID). It was not a big deal. If you have reason to get tested, and are avoiding it due to what you've heard about discomfort, don't worry about it. Get tested.

Wear a mask, wash your hands, observe distancing protocols. Stay safe and healthy.

[sapient]

Testing may be available. Results not so much.

[wj]

If you have reason to get tested, and are avoiding it due to what you've heard about discomfort, don't worry about it. Get tested.

If you're really put off by the discomfort of the nasal swab, or just want fast results, there's an alternative: give blood. Blood is always in short supply, and now especially, so it's a good deed in its own right.

And the blood bank will necessarily test your donation, and promptly. If they are not automatically sharing the results, you probably only have to ask. Mine were available within 48 hours (possibly sooner; I wasn't checking frequently).

[Marty]

"shot at governing Florida, Oklahoma, Arizona, Orange County, North Dakota, and Texas before we jump to conclusions."

I like the way we separate Orange County, I assume that's Orange county in California? Which is not nearly as bad as Los Angeles county. Maybe we should just list the counties. Miami-Dade, Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Broward, Palm Beach, Maricopa, Cass. A list of mostly Democratic strongholds in swing/red states. Do we really want to replace their governments.

[russell]

Testing may be available. Results not so much.

Yes, it depends, on a lot of things.

I got my first result back in less than 24 hours. Second result took about 3 days.

That's in eastern MA, where medical infrastructure is thick on the ground, and the state government is generally supportive of testing.

If there's any question, assume you're positive and isolate. That's what I did, and spent about a week in the basement, away from my wife.

It sucked, but you do watcha gotta.

Maybe we should just list the counties.

The virus is gonna be worse where there is greater population density. For obvious reasons.

Places with greater population density tend to have (D) governments. For equally obvious reasons.

Sometimes places with (D) local governments exist in states with (R) state level governments. And sometimes the state level governments can't find a good strategy for handling COVID with both hands and a flashlight. Sometimes the local governments can't do so, either, for that matter.

We deal with all of this with the government we have, not the government we wish we had. And then, if we're smart, we do what we can to get the governments we wish we had.

The virus doesn't really give a crap. It just wants to make more virus.

[nous]

Orange County is an interesting place. 40% non-Latino white, 34% Latin(x), 22% Asian and 33% foreign born. It's purple, rather than its former red, because the Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Persian, and Filipino families that used to vote as fiscal conservatives are out of synch and out of sorts with the white racist nativists that remain pro-Trump and that are fully entrenched in the local GOP. The GOP wave of nativist white nationalism has scuttled them, locally, for federal elections and is damaging them for state elections. At the local level it's mostly just cronyism and working to channel money to developers. None of it is particularly progressive at that level - both sides are NIMBYs that care mostly about crime and property values.

Mask wise, the asians, working class hispanics and the white limousine liberals all wear masks as a matter of course and the white conservatives and hispanic private contractors all act as if masks are a sign of weakness.

And as far as Trump is concerned, the whole place already belongs to the Chinese, so screw 'em all.

[wj]

the Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Persian, and Filipino families that used to vote as fiscal conservatives are out of synch and out of sorts with the white racist nativists that remain pro-Trump and that are fully entrenched in the local GOP. The GOP wave of nativist white nationalism has scuttled them, locally, for federal elections and is damaging them for state elections.

Pretty much the story of the GOP across California generally. All those conservative immigrants (fiscal conservative and also pretty socially conservative) got vigorously rejected by the nativists. Ditto the quite conservative black middle class.

A non-racist conservative party could do quite well here. Unfortunately (or fortunately, I suppose, for liberals), none is on offer.

[John Thullen]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3592422-white-house-officials-look-to-withhold-funds-for-coronavirus-testing-wp

Maybe the anonymous, unidentified, probably Russian troops, veterans of un-uniformed Ukrainian incursions and repressions under Putin's directions, smuggled into this country to enforce the re-election of Trump and Barr by any and all force necessary, instead of kidnapping innocents off the streets in Portland could be re-purposed to aid in the testing and tracking of virus victims throughout the country the White House and the Republican Party instead are attempting to murder.

Remember when lying subhuman conservative republicans in Texas tried to tell the tale of identified United Nations troops infiltrating their confederate state back when we had a Kenyan President of a different color.

You'd think the racist Bundys would be on these federal infringements on states and individual rights like racist white on rice.

Where could they be now?

Finding second jobs to pay the grazing fees their asses owe me?

Hmmm.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/7/17/1961543/-Ammon-Bundy-tries-to-bully-his-way-inside-Idaho-health-board-meeting-on-mandating-masks

Obama was a pussy for not taking that entire family out.

[wj]

And you are surprised that the Bundys are true-believer Trumpists why? Seems like such a natural fit.

[sapient]

On Obama: what a respectable, and respectful person.

But, yeah, he should have done a lot of things to them when he had the chance. He believed in their decency. Mistake. He will go down in history as weak and deluded, although a very good guy.

[John Thullen]

What? Am I acting surprised?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqeGtjZkLWs

[John Thullen]

I've always mistaken Marco Rubio for Desi Arnaz, even sometimes Fidel Castro, so can I see how this might happen .... not:

https://juanitajean.com/mario-mario/

Marco has some 'splainin to do, Ethel.

That's all right. For years, every time Marco heard Martin Luther King's "I Have A Dream" speech, he got a jones on for some Chef Boyardee and plantains.

[sapient]

I'm tired of being depressed. Looking for some John Lewis good trouble to get into, to keep me busy during the pandemic. The older I get, the more cowardly though. Especially with this disease.

Ideas?

[CaseyL]

sapient, I would not go to a protest right now. Not only might you be exposed to the virus, you run the risk of being exposed to Trump's Mercs, who have been disappearing people off the streets in Portland - and apparently will start doing so in other cities as well.

(And I say that so casually, as though the US' swiftly descending into a full totalitarian state is no more significant than the chance of bad weather.)

I'd save my powder, so to speak, for Election Day. Maybe turn up near a polling place to escort people past the mercs, or record the fact that they're there. Or for after election, in case we need a few tens of millions to go to DC and bodily extract the Crime Cartel squatting there.

[russell]

Ideas?

here's one

[Priest]

I got to cast my last vote for John Lewis in the primary this year. I had hoped I could cast one more. But pancreatic cancer doesn't sleep, as I already knew from family experience. Rename the damn bridge.

[Priest]

We have these debates about "privilege". I was privileged to be able to vote for a Real American Patriot. We also lost a less well known nationally patriot here yesterday, Rev. Vivian. 95 years of life experiencing and pushing the arc of justice.

[Priest]

Sorry for the derail, it's a sad time here in the ATL.

[bobbyp]

Sad? Yes. A great man has passed, but the struggle continues.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/how-john-lewis-founded-third-american-republic/614371/

[Nigel]

The nightmare scenario is (as said above), if the vaccine works against the one virus but leads to a fatal overreaction against a similar one. Iirc one of the vaccines against MERS, SARS or one of the related others had exactly that effect.

If you’re talking about antibody dependent enhancement, I don’t think it’s been shown with either SARS or MERS vaccines (though development if these was never advanced) - it did happen with a feline coronavirus vaccine.

The chances of any of the current vaccines creating ADE seem to be pretty low, as it’s not shown up in any of the animal testing, or any of the human trials so far. There is a danger of it, of course, but it would almost certainly show up in one of the later stage trials before any approval for general use.

[Hartmut]

But that's exactly the problem. Will it be rushed through approval for political reasons? What does Jabbabonk care, if people die AFTER the election?

[Michael Cain]

And the mechanics of vaccination will vary fro country to country (I think compliance will be high in the UK, for example).

Within countries, and even within US states as well. I live in Colorado, and Kaiser Permanente is one of the largest insurers (and largest single health care provider). Kaiser is the original HMO in the US and grew out of the need to provide care for Kaiser shipyard workers and their families during WWII. They'll run it like they run their fall flu vaccine campaign: nag the hell out of their members, no charges, shots available at all of their facilities whenever they're open, special events (up to and including drive-throughs). You show up, they scan your membership card, you get your shot. People who have a history that contraindicates vaccination are automatically identified by the computers when their card is scanned, and handled on a case-by-case basis. Kaiser gets a significantly higher percentage of their members vaccinated than other insurers in the state simply because they work at it.

[wj]

Kaiser is the original HMO in the US and grew out of the need to provide care for Kaiser shipyard workers and their families during WWII.

Pedantic historical note.
Kaiser actually started with the need to provide medical care for workers building Boulder Dam (now Hoover Dam) in Nevada in the early 1930s. When they needed medical care for the shipyards, they had a template in hand, with a lot of the bugs already worked out.

[wj]

Head in the sand watch:
The administration is trying to block billions that GOP senators want to allocate for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Got that? Not Democratic senators; GOP senators.

Right up there with objecting to increased testing, which they also do, because it increases reported case numbers. Doesn't change the actual number of cases, of course. But if it wasn't reported, for these morons it didn't happen.

[cleek]

i don't know if any of you knew this, but Trump is a crook.

[wj]

Well technically he's a conman, rather than a crook. He didn't steal the money, just fleeced a bunch of marks (aka "donors") who gave it to him.

I wonder how much diehard Trump support is people who would find it just too massively embarrassing to admit how badly they've been conned.

[russell]

Well technically he's a conman, rather than a crook.

I suspect there some campaign finance issues in cleek's example.

Even if not, there is no lack of examples of Trump's fundamental crookedness.

Outside of hard-core Trumpies, I can't imagine that's even in question at this point.

[wj]

That Trump is basically dishonest? My sense is that even most hardcore Trumpies acknowledge that. It's just that they seem to admire him for getting away with it. Which says something pretty appalling about them as human beings -- never mind what it says about those who were once Moral Majority types.

[Nigel]

But that's exactly the problem. Will it be rushed through approval for political reasons? What does Jabbabonk care, if people die AFTER the election?

The unseemly rush is worldwide, and yes, vaccine development and trials have been run at an unprecedented rate. But they’re still running trials regulated by the FDA, and approval is subject to those results.

A second term Trump might allocate himself the power, but for now there’s no way for him to strongarm the FDA like that.

[wj]

There's no way for him to have the Executive Branch blanket refuse to obey subpoenas from Congress either. But he did. I expect he'll lose the law suits . . . eventually. But he's certainly achieved the main objective by delaying compliance for a year or two.

Similarly, he could fire the (acting!) FDA Commissioner and appoint someone who would skip the approval process and just declare something approved. It might well be beaten back. But at minimum it would confuse things. And beating it back could take months, at least.

[Michael Cain]

Similarly, he could fire the (acting!) FDA Commissioner and appoint someone who would skip the approval process and just declare something approved.

I could see this. The one thing the courts have done, Trump appointees or not, is if there's a statutorily defined process, they insist it be followed. So, a new FDA leader, a vaccine arbitrarily approved, and about the end of September they hit a court that overrules the use of the vaccine. Then for all of October the Trump campaign hammers on, "There's a vaccine but the liberal Democrats won't. Let. You. Have. It." If the Dems won't file the lawsuit the Republicans have people who will.

[Nigel]

I don't put anything past Trump, but I feel such scenarios are at the outside edge of what's possible over the next few months.

[Nigel]

Some detail on the licensing of the Oxford vaccine.

After success of early stage covid-19 vaccine trial, Oxford University's coronavirus IP policy explained
https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/exclusive-new-ip-policy-help-forge-partnerships-potential-uk-covid-19-vaccine

It will expedite access to the university’s IP to enable global deployment at scale of associated products and services to address the pandemic.
The OUI’s default approach regarding this access will be to offer non-exclusive, royalty-free licences to support free-of-charge, at-cost or cost + limited margin supply as appropriate. These terms will only apply for the duration of the pandemic.
Licence terms for post-pandemic commercial markets will be the subject of a separate agreement.
The grant of a licence during the pandemic does not guarantee the same licensee IP access after the pandemic.
Licences for the use of university IP to support commercial sales after the pandemic is declared over by the WHO will carry appropriate financial terms to allow the university to reinvest in teaching and research.

[Nigel]

As well as the Oxford vaccine paper in the Lancet today, there was also encouraging data published on a Chinese vaccine, and also the one from a Pfizer/Biontech.

It will be months before there can be proof of efficacy from PIII trials, but all elicited neutralising antibody, and T cell responses. Immensely encouraging.

[hairshirthedonist]

I'm putting this here because this thread is closest topically of the recent threads. If this were facebook, I'd tag sapient, who was particularly interested in how this situation (Missouri hair salon) would resolve over the longer term and what information could be gleaned from it.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/07/15/wearing-mask-may-offer-protection-against-catching-severe-covid-19/5431323002/

[sapient]

Thanks, hsh. I'm really grateful for masks as a mitigation effort, and for all who are willing to wear them (am and glad that they are helpful to the wearer as a reward). My community seems pretty good about it from my own observation, although UVA plans to open in August, and we're somewhat worried about whether returning students will comply.

Virginia, as a whole, has spiked upwards, I think mostly because of the beach situation. Frustrating.

[nous]

One other thing I think needs to be factored into any conversation about our vaccine rollout plans:

BBC: Russia report: UK 'badly underestimated' threat, says committee - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53484344

You know that the usual IRA troll farms are going to be trolling us hard in order to weaken the effectiveness of our response.

[nous]

The latest in the right wing hit show seems to be the return of Hydroxychloroquine as a "cure" for COVID-19. Between the Yale Public Health dude who wrote the op-ed in Newsweek and the Houston-based doctor/ pentecostal preacher from Nigeria, who went viral on twitter with her own touting of the drug.

All of which led me to the AAPS and their endorsement of HCQ: https://aapsonline.org/hcq-90-percent-chance/

They describe themselves as "a non-partisan professional association of physicians in all types of practices and specialties across the country" and yet later on on the same page we get:

The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, AAPS, has been fighting the good fight to preserve the practice of private medicine since 1943. When the Clinton health plan was proposed, we fought for open meetings. And when the details came to light, the plan was halted. In the current battle over health care “reform,” the AAPS helped organize numerous physician rallys and has a pending lawsuit suit in the DC Federal District Court challenging the constitutionality of the ObamaCare insurance mandate.

...which seems a very selective definition of "non-partisan."

And now they, and through them my homeschooling anti-abortion-but-pro-medical-choice-because-sovereignty family members are all ranting about how medicine should not be politicized.

Umm, hello...

[CharlesWT]

I think the argument is that, as long as you don't advocate for or against political parties and candidates, you can claim to be non-partisan.

[cleek]

this politicization of science, medicine and actual knowing things is the modern right's most worst endeavor - the one that's going to lead to the most harm.

you'd think they'd learn, after looking at... ALL OF HISTORY.

but no.

[wj]

looking at... ALL OF HISTORY.

They've demonized, and made a virtue of rejecting, expertise in everything else. Why should history** be exempt? Especially since knowledge of it would trash some of their dearest idiocies.

** It occurs to me to wonder. Are the textualists taking over in consevative legal circles from the originalists simply because the latter requires learning something of history? Just a thought.

[sapient]

this politicization of science, medicine and actual knowing things is the modern right's most worst endeavor - the one that's going to lead to the most harm.

I'm a huge fan of data, even when economists (apparently the scourge of the American "left", even though most economists in academia are probably on the "left") use it. It's pretty useful, although it can be manipulated. It gives us a lot of information about what is working, and what isn't.

I'm hugely worried about the census.

[Snarki, child of Loki]

" Are the textualists taking over in consevative legal circles from the originalists simply because the latter requires learning something of history?"

More likely, it's that they don't get the answers they want. Just like "federalism": it's a means to an predetermined end.

Texualists, originalists: they're actually pretextualists.

To show otherwise, there needs to be more situations of "I prefer X, but texualism/originalism says 'not-X', so that's what wins".

Of course, observing that RW judges are hypocrites is like observing that water is wet.

[wj]

I'm hugely worried about the census.

If Trump wins, so his minions have more opportunities to tweak the results, then yes a serious problem.

On the other hand, if he's gone the raw numbers should still be available. Granted, he may have managed to get an undercount -- with a major assist for covid-19. But probably not as much as he and McConnell would like.

[wj]

Gee, maybe AG Barr will express concern about this as well.
https://washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/29/umbrella-man-white-supremacist-minneapolis/?tid=pm_pop&itid=pm_pop

What, not willing any sucker bet today?

Actually, I would be surprised if a significant fraction of the violent protesters were NOT some flavor of right-wingers (though perhaps not actually paid by the Trump campaign) trying to spark bigger problems.

[russell]

On the other hand, if he's gone the raw numbers should still be available.

The raw numbers are likely to be inaccurate, because Trump is taking measures to discourage immigrant communities from participating.

[wj]

Inaccurate, yes. But still far better that they would be after manipulation.

[John Thullen]

America: where pitching the benefits of a deadly plague is a savvy career move for fading celebrities:

https://www.insider.com/instagram-flagged-madonna-viral-video-promoting-disinformation-about-covid-19-2020-7

Apparently, the virus cause blindness in one eye, which would explain why historical pirates turned up wearing eye patches after previous black deaths:

https://www.google.com/search?q=madonna+with+eyepatch&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=Vk9EyAH9oh6wZM%252CaeXSs6XlooG9MM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kQa4AyASbG36YSd3nJX5-POwHNt4A&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiiwai52PLqAhWWWM0KHRqnCz4Q9QEwC3oECAQQMg&biw=1920&bih=938#imgrc=WIcZ-p3xzkcTyM

It makes one look forward to peg legs.

Meanwhile: Louis Gohmert:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/508759-gops-gohmert-introduces-resolution-that-would-ban-the-democratic-party

He has co-sponsers. Including God.

And simultaneously, Louis Gohmert finally has a chance to be eternally canceled:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/29/louis-gohmert-who-refused-to-wear-a-mask-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-386076

I'll bet he knew about this beforehand and was purposefully, like Ayn Rand Paul, walking around trying to infect his colleagues with his viral libertarian cooties.

It sure is lucky the White House is going all out in trying to prevent ONLY one American who is above all law from catching the bug.

Which raises a question: When the First Amendment starts leading to a bigger murder toll than the Second Amendment, shouldn't the Second Amendment strive to catch up.

Rand Paul was knowingly wielding a deadly weapon.

Gohmert IS a deadly weapon.

You know, if Covid-19, like termites and rust, began dismantling and destroying private property .... buildings, vehicles, firearms ... etc, the crypto-Christian Republican Party would be in full, defensive panic mode. As it is, like the neutron bomb, Covid leaves property standing and merely removes the human beings, so no big f&cking deal.

These subhumans would be masking up all building, houses, their SUVs, and their firearms.

A statue of a human being in their worldview is more valuable than the flesh and blood referent.

[wj]

It makes one look forward to peg legs.

Peg legs are foolish, but I can accept that someone might want one. (At least as an option.) It's the return of the hook that concerns me more.

[russell]

But still far better that they would be after manipulation.

that, too.

[wj]

I'm wondering if it would be legal to run a make-up census in a year or two, to correct the flaws in this one. And then use that to re-redistribute House seats. Maybe one of the lawyers can speak to that.

[hairshirthedonist]

After a bunch of high-profile Republicans get COVID-19, some of whom might die from it, the conspiracy theory that Fauci helped create it to seize power (to do what, I don't know) will gain further traction. "Look, more Republicans are getting it than Democrats! It's targeted!" Their dumb behavior won't be a consideration.

[wj]

What we need, even more than a bunch of high-profile Republicans getting covid-19, is a bunch of big Republican donors getting it. When they see themselves getting hurt as a result of the actions of the folks they have been giving money to, they may decide to rethink their political investment strategy.

[John Thullen]

More on Gohmert:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1288524502649966592

[John Thullen]

More on Gohmert:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1288524502649966592

Staff members were berated and harassed when they wore or tried to wear masks, probably with large droplet spittle-flecked rants in their faces from the Texas Republican subhuman.

Louis, Louie,
Oh, baby!
Said, we gotta go.

I just don't what good all those guns being packed in Texas are doing anyone.

What's it gonna take?

[John Thullen]

Course, the upside is, as trump claims, is that home prices will rise, thereby keeping those white hillbillies trump also claims are HIS people out of the middle class neighborhoods and the better schools and out of the middle class.

So, the white hillbillies have two choices.

Grit their teeth and attend schools with those who possess more melanin than they do, and who talk better and have been taught better manners, or rejoin the Democratic Party.

I've a feeling, given current trends, the first will win out, like always.

Maybe, before November, Trump and DeVos will propose an initiative to bus poor white (only) students in poor neighborhoods to more well-off schools in tonier neighborhoods.

Not a peep will be heard from the Boston Irish or the Southern cracker lobby this time around.

[wj]

I just don't what good all those guns being packed in Texas are doing anyone.

You mean we can't just gun down the virus and destroy it?!?!? Who knew?

[John Thullen]

My 2:42pm is in reaction to this:

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/07/trumps-unaffordable-housing-policy

[wj]

More on Gohmert:

Did you catch the detail that he and Barr were chatting during yesterday's hearings? No masks; no distance. More than one way to get rid of an AG. (Although I would be sorry to lose a shot of getting him disbarred, like John Mitchell wss.)

[CharlesWT]

Trump is a walking, talking advertisement for the assertion that if a problem can be made worse, the government will do it.

"President Donald Trump's recent comments about saving the suburbs from new development appear to be more than just talk. A new fair housing rule released by the Trump administration this week prioritizes local control of housing policy in place of federal interventions to address the legacy of segregation (which progressives prefer) or incentivizing the deregulation of housing construction, which his own administration proposed earlier this year.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released its new Preserving Community and Neighborhood Choice rule, which establishes the standards jurisdictions receiving HUD grants have to meet in order to satisfy the 1968 Fair Housing Act's requirement that federal housing programs be administered in a way that "affirmatively furthers fair housing.""
Trump's New Fair Housing Rule Prioritizes Toxic Culture War Politics Over Deregulation: The president has ditched a promising, free market-influenced revamp of Obama-era fair housing regulations in favor of a legally dubious new rule that's heavy on local control.

But, then, for decades politicians and bureaucrats on all sides of the political spectrum have been creating artificial shortages of housing. Why should Trump be different?

[wj]

Trump is a walking, talking advertisement for the assertion that if a problem can be made worse, the government will do it.

That fact that we have a massive incompetent demonstrating that government can make things worse is a very long way from demonstrating that government will do so. Although I suppose that, if you are looking for confirmation of your existing biases, it might be useful.

[CharlesWT]

Trump's going after the progressive vote?

"In an apparent bid to shore up his support among progressives in the San Francisco Bay Area, President Donald Trump is promising to prevent the construction of new low-income housing in suburban neighborhoods.
...
NIMBY (Not in My Backyard) opposition to new housing development is very much a cross-ideological phenomenon. NIMBYs on the right might put more emphasis on property values and crime. Those on the left will fret about gentrification and environmental sustainability. Regardless of the rhetoric, or even intent, the result is less housing gets built, and housing costs go up.

It's unlikely that Trump will pick up too many votes in the blue suburbs of blue cities, but his defense of local control and low-density zoning probably isn't hurting him there."
Trump Appeals to Progressive Voters With Promise To Defend Suburbs Against New Housing Development: NIMBYism comes in many different ideological stripes. Fewer homes and higher rents are always the result.

[nous]

Trump is a walking, talking advertisement for the assertion that if a problem can be made worse, the government will do it.

Trump was elected by the very people making that assertion.

Were they electing him to try to fix that problem? If so, then they have the worst possible judgment about what needs to be done in order to fix the problem, and their suggestions should be met with skepticism until they show they are capable of better judgment.

Were they electing him to burn it all down? Then he's not a fulfillment of the assertion, but a professional saboteur.

Not much to recommend either side of that a/b.

[wj]

A publication which can say, apparently with a straight face, something like

In an apparent bid to shore up his support among progressives in the San Francisco Bay Area, President Donald Trump is promising to prevent the construction of new low-income housing in suburban neighborhoods.

is simply abdicating on any claim to connection to the real world. I live in said San Francisco Bay Area. There just isn't any possible scenario where Trump is competitive in any Bay Area county. And even if you assume (for the sake of discussion) that he could somehow eek out pluralities in a couple of them (perhaps on the back of a big Green Party vote?), his chances of taking California are somewhere on the none side of none. As in, not even rising to slim.

Even for someone as disconnected from reality as Trump, wasting time or resources or anything else on trying to take California is wildly improbable.

[CharlesWT]

A publication which can say, apparently with a straight face, something like...is simply abdicating on any claim to connection to the real world.

On the other hand, it could be sarcasm.

[John Thullen]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-gop-plan-cant-sue-172938487.html

You can't sue your employers for the harm they do to you, but they can sue YOU for requesting they maintain your safety on that thing they a job.

The meat America packs is human meat.

An arm and a leg; it's what's fer dinner.

It is high time to make America unsafe and extraordinarily hazardous for Republicans and their children.

[John Thullen]

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/pompeos-declaration-of-cold-war/

I repeat, it is high time to make America unsafe and extraordinarily hazardous for Republicans and their children.

[John Thullen]

Cancel his children's library cards and tear gas the filthy little devils if they try to enter the library premises.

See if 911 answers THEIR calls ... from the library.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=Sheriff+Dan+Coverley&filters=tnTID%3a%22D085E6C3-23F6-4826-8B6E-E3E69F27C2DA%22+tnVersion%3a%223634012%22+Segment%3a%22popularnow.carousel%22+tnCol%3a%224%22+tnOrder%3a%226a39e3bf-277f-47b5-9f36-1bda86b2ebaf%22&efirst=4&form=HPNN01

[John Thullen]

The Sheriff backtracked.

The Librarians should escalate.

[russell]

Boston Irish

They gentrified Southie and now all the Boston Irish are down on the south shore.

You mean we can't just gun down the virus and destroy it?!?!?

Right? I mean, it worked for hurricanes, right?

Trump is a walking, talking advertisement for the assertion that if a problem can be made worse, the government will do it.

:: facepalm ::