Obsidian Wings

As black as they wanna be?

by liberal japonicus

A totally frivolous post below the break.

The Fix

by wj

The most optimistic estimates suggest that we might have a covid-19 vaccine that works by the end of the year. Let’s assume, for the sake of discussion, that actually happens. Then what?

Well the obvious first step is to get production ramped up to produce enough doses to handle the whole country. (Well, the whole world, but that’s out of scope for this particular discussion.) The various pharm companies working on the vaccines know how to do that. They’ve had practice, after all. No doubt it will be slower than we would like, but it won’t be that bad.

But then, we have to actually distribute and administer the vaccines. Which may be a problem.

What brings this to mind is a column from Megan McArdle in the Washington Post entitled If we want any vaccine to actually work, we have to prepare for it now Now McArdle is a pretty staunch libertarian (not up to Charles, perhaps, but pretty strong). So it is noteworthy that when she talks about not screwing up the vaccine the way we screwed up the first phase of the corona virus response, she says “That kind of vaccination campaign — the kind that could really make everything go back to normal — is going to take a vast, coordinated public effort on a scale that we may not have seen since the United States rolled out draft cards and ration books during World War II." Further

The logistics alone are daunting. We might not reach true normal until a sizable majority of the country is vaccinated, and our traditional method for fighting infectious disease — require vaccination to attend primary school — won’t achieve that. How do we purchase, store and distribute all those doses? How do we keep track of who has been vaccinated, particularly if vaccination requires multiple doses? All this needs to be resolved at the federal level, as much as possible, because in a country as open and mobile as the United States, we’re all only as well as our sickest fellow state.

This from, as I say, a devout libertarian.

And, as she notes, the logistical problems pale beside the political problems. Not only is the whole subject of the virus hopelessly politicized – even over something as trivial as wearing masks. But there is also the pre-existing anti-vaccination fervor on the right and left. To the point that it will probably require relatively draconian penalties (and maybe more) to get some people to accept the vaccine.

In short, there’s an excellent chance that we won’t be organized, we won’t even start to get organized, to distribute the vaccine until mid-January (i.e. when we have a new administration and a new Congress). So when we will actually get it done is hard to say. Maybe next summer...?

Australia, Australia, Australia, we love you, Amen!: Palace correspondence about the Whitlam affair

by liberal japonicus

I know, I know, a flurry of posts. But interesting topics wait for no man and this is one that has fascinated me from afar-ish. More below the break

Re: Applebaum

by liberal japonicus

I'm not going to dig thru comments to find out who discussed Applebaum and what folks said, and I can't remember when I have cited her, but I will say, knowing all this about her make me wonder how I would reconsider things.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/jul/12/anne-applebaum-how-my-old-friends-paved-the-way-for-trump-and-brexit

homeschooling, covid and educamating our youth: who knows?

by liberal japonicus

Sapient passed on this link
https://responsiblehomeschooling.org/policy-issues/abuse-and-neglect/abuse-in-homeschooling-environments/ and I thought I'd toss up a post to let y'all chat. A warning: I think the landscape for homeschooling is a lot more varied than anyone thinks it is, so be careful with blanket assertions about what is good/bad or wrong/right. I'd especially be interested in how it works outside of the US.

have at it.

elective affinities

by liberal japonicus

I really enjoyed this article about Max Weber, who wrote the The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. At university, one of my favorite teachers in one of my favorite classes (a class about modernity and the 20th century) assigned selections from this and I was quite taken with Weber's idea of elective affinity. However, I haven't thought about Weber in a long time and we didn't get into Weber's life, concentrating on Nietzsche and the Existentialists, so it was quite interesting to read more about Weber's background, the fact that he had done a tour of the US and his relation to the political upheavals in post WW1 Germany.

Anyway, a placeholder for chat. Stay safe all.

The Choices Others Make

--By Sebastian H

30 years ago my mother was in a car accident.  She was stopped in the left hand turn lane of a major intersection.  Someone blew through the light, T-boned another car, which spun around the intersection so violently it was able to hit my mother's van on three different sides.  She got a broken arm out of that accident, and spine injuries just under severe enough to do surgery, but more than enough to cause pain all sorts of times later in her life.  We've long had a kind of dark humor about how being someone who drove her children around got her nothing but pain.  

She's over 70 now, so when I heard that she had back pain again I wasn't surprised.  That isn't the kind of thing that ever really heals.  She had jokingly complained about how her back was hurting her more and more for about a year.  But I was surprised to hear that it was so bad she had trouble walking and that her friends had insisted she go to the hospital for it.  Historically the problems had always been in her upper spine, but the doctors were now reporting something serious going on in her lower spine.  Old problems aren't exactly welcome, but new ones are definitely unwelcome.  She lives on her own, so we started talking about helping her move into a retirement care home near my brother in Grand Rapids, Michigan.  She was a bit concerned that her money wouldn't pay for that for the next ten or more years, but we started the research.  Meanwhile she was still in intense pain in the hospital.  This worried me because she has always had a very high pain threshold, so if she was in that much pain, something was seriously wrong.  

About a week later word came back that there was some sort of mass in her spine which had grown in between the vertebrae and caused fractures in one of them.  A few days after that, a biopsy came back--it was cancer--Multiple Myeloma to be precise.  A blood plasma cancer that was very rare, but that I oddly knew about because a friend also has it.  Blood cancers can be especially nasty because they end up circulating throughout the body.  This particular one appeared to have been caught rather late, so the untreated prognosis was 6-18 months.  The treatment outlook was immediate radiation on the mass followed by chemotherapy.  The treatment success likelihood was about 50%.  This is a little misleading as either the chemotherapy works really well, or it tends not work much at all.  It is also a bit misleading because younger patients tend to do much better than older ones.  In any case they did the radiation right away and counseled follow up chemotherapy in about two months after her body recovered from the radiation.  

By then we had found a good graduated care retirement home and had arranged for her to be able to get into it.  (This is glossing over a lot about how crazy that process is, but this post is already going to be very long).  So we had an aunt travel with her and fly her out, while my brother drove to her apartment to pack things up, and I met her at the new facility after a few days.  My brother's wife has been AMAZING in helping.  I honestly can't imagine how this would have worked out without her.  I talked with my mom a lot, and she was in intense pain.  In the past 10 years she had been getting increasingly skeptical of doctors.  This was tied to the fact that she had a serious thyroid problem her 40s which ended up in it being removed.  Ever since then she has been through countless fights with doctors and insurance companies about trying to get her thyroxin levels to a livable point.  (Especially early in the process, most of the doctors wanted to target it to the very lowest point that counted as normal.  This unfortunately made her feel lethargic, depressed, and sometimes suicidal so her unfavorable reaction to the process is understandable). We scheduled an appoint with an oncologist in Grand Rapids, and I flew out again to help with the stuff around the first appointment though I had to fly home before the actual appointment.  But already something in my heart was troubled because she was talking a lot about how one of her college friends earlier in the year had gone through cancer treatments and been miserable only to die anyway.  After the appointment she focused on how the doctor talked about getting Medicare to pay for oncology treatments by enrolling her in a study.  She didn't think of it as a strategy to avoid having out of pocket expenses (my take) so much as the doctor focusing more on getting paid than worrying about her.  We talked about that at great length.  

By January she hadn't scheduled the chemo, nor had she followed up on the tests to see how the cancer was progressing.  She kept talking to my siblings about chemo, but I wasn't convinced that she was going to do it.  For both good and ill, I'm not a particularly subtle person.  So I broached the question directly.  I told her that I would support any choice she truly made, but that I wasn't comfortable with her just slipping into a default choice by not doing anything or tracking anything until it just happened.  We talked and cried for a few days, when she finally said that she would rather have the full control of her faculties and enjoy the time she has left with her grandchildren and children without "chemo brain".  Since the chemo outcomes are so binary, I really wanted her to try once and then if it wasn't working stop.  But her feeling was the opposite--if there was a 50% chance of it destroying nearly all the time she had left without making it better, she didn't want it.  So we moved out of 'treatment' mindset and into 'management' mindset.  That was a very difficult thing for me to emotionally comprehend because I'm a bit tenacious, even stubborn from time to time so it cut against my nature.  

I arranged to fly out to see her again in early March with the intention of being careful to treat it like it could be the last time.  The visit was strangely a combination of very deep and deeply surface.  Lots of little quirks.  Like she had me go to Starbucks and get a chai latte with 8 pumps of chai.  I thought that would be sickeningly sweet, but I figured what the heck? When I got it to her she revealed that since she couldn't always send someone to Starbucks that we would divide it into 6 cups that would then be mixed with milk to make it last almost a week.  Very problem solver practical!  We also had an interesting discussion where I pulled and twisted her hair as a kind of massage which she used to have me do when I was in my teens if she had a migraine.  She said "where did you learn to twist and ground the energy like that" which led to a surprising talk about spiritual knowledge not available under most types of Christianity nowadays.  I said goodbye to her and we both affirmed that we hoped it wasn't the last goodbye, but that we should be mindful that it might be.  I told her that I would try to schedule a trip every 6 weeks or so.  

I flew back home and two days later California was shut down because of the corona virus.  Simultaneously Michigan had closed any retirement homes to outside visitors, so even though my brother lived 2 miles away, he couldn't visit.  My mom took the immensely healthy attitude about that last bit "I'm pretending that I hadn't moved from Colorado yet, so of course he can't see me all the time".  I scheduled a flight for late April.  I told her that I knew I couldn't get in even if I flew out to Grand Rapids, but that I'd move the flight every two weeks until I could. She felt cared for by that, which was the best I could do.  I moved the flight to mid May.  I moved the flight to early June.  Right before I moved the flight again I was told that I could get on the family caregiver list and get inside.  So I forced my doctor to give me a corona virus test despite having no symptoms so I wouldn't make her sick.  (The results didn't come back till I was already in the air even though I gave 5 days, but at least I found out at a stop that I was negative).  So I visited again.  This time I experienced full corona craziness--flights rescheduled multiple times.  Travel telescoping from 5 to 12 hours and from 1 stop to 4.  I had the oddest experience of being in a nearly empty Minneapolis airport for 5 hours.  Once there I had another good time with her.  A lot of focus on the day to day comfort techniques.  We had a very touching moment where she wanted to try to stand up to give me a "proper" hug.  She isn't really tracking the cancer so it is hard to tell how she is doing.  The course of it is that it degrades a bunch of organs until one of them eventually fails.  So I suspect it is going to look mostly fine, mostly fine, mostly fine, terrible.  She seems more and more mentally together and physically weaker.  Which is the tradeoff she chose.  

This was already going to be very hard, but you can imagine my anger about how the poor corona virus response makes it even worse.  Ugh.