Wuhan's first?

by liberal japonicus

I'm back with an Abbott and Costello pun to start things off.

Obligatory exposition. I was an exchange professor in the city of Daejeon, an hour south of Seoul for one year. While there are lots of things that I hope I will write about, I thought that I would start with some discussion of the coronavirus and what I've seen in Korea and Japan. As I'm sure all of you are aware, the Chinese efforts to contain the virus have been pretty intensive/harsh/draconian (adjectives to adjust depending on your opinion of China and the danger of the virus). I'm not sure how much coverage you've gotten where you are, but here is an interesting story, and the twitter video can give all your Chinese learners some stuff to practice listening to. (不客气!) However, because I wasn't in China and I wanted to talk about my personal experiences, I won't talk anymore about that. I'll also leave Ugh's post up so folks can talk about what is happening elsewhere especially in the US. I realize that may be a bit chaotic, but I feel like the situation in Asia is quite different than the US, though reading the Guardian suggests that there are some similarities with the UK and Europe. Anyway, more below.

So, I was finishing up my year in Korea, where the universities start at the beginning of March and one of the early responses was that date was pushed back 2 weeks, with the February graduation ceremonies cancelled. I surmise that some big reasons for this were that there are a lot of Chinese exchange students in the Korean universities (more than Japan) and the Korean college student population is much less tied to a hometown, so you would have people travelling from all over the country. I also guess that this is why they didn't ask elementary, secondary and hagwon (private cram schools) to close. There was a pretty impressive turnout of resources, hand sanitizer dispensers appeared everwhere, all the train stations had consultation tents and temperature cameras, airports have had them since SARS, but they were all fully staffed. Posters everywhere with explanations on handwashing and regular announcements on transport, in stations and other places, all multilingual. All staff with masks, required, a requirement that was extended to every work place shortly after.

I had gone back and forth to Japan a week earlier and when I reentered Korea for the last time (Feb 17), they were interviewing everyone entering with a Chinese passport, and foreigners with longterm visas were no longer permitted to go thru the automatic immigration barriers. The last one seemed more performative, in that Koreans were still allowed to use the automatic gates, but I suppose they wanted a check on all foreigners. However, I'm not sure how they would have told the Chinese from the Koreans for the automatic barriers, though it is possible that they could have flagged their passports, and they directed me because I was more obviously foreign.

This was before the cluster in Taegu, South Korea, which was the airport that I have been travelling thru the most this year. Here are two links about that cluster
from the Guardian and the BBC. This is a great set of graphics from Reuters detailing clusters and explaining why the Taegu cluster raised such red flags. The interaction between the church at the center of the Taegu cluster and Korean reaction is something I'll try to take up in a later post when I discuss Christianity in Korea.

I also can't find it, but when the first few people who test positive for the virus show up, both in Korea and Japan, they will publish a detailed itinerary of where they were. This Korean article is a rough example, and there is a post about information and information technology in the works.

As most of you realize, left/right mappings are always complicated by internal politics and history, so one country's political ecosystem never neatly maps onto another country's, but for shorthand, the current administration is left, the previous right leaning President, Park Geun-Hye having been impeached. but the current administration of Moon_Jae-in is assumed to be more sympathetic to China as well as dealing with North Korea (something that interacts with Trump's call for SK paying a larger share of defense) All this is an interesting mix, so there is quite a bit of argy-bargy about how South Korea has not stopped all Chinese from entering the country as evidence of communist leanings. And there are people on the left who are quite disappointed with Moon's tenure, and the virus is providing a locus for pent up anger, but I didn't really get as deep an understanding of the currents to be able to confidently explain them.

As a side note, for me, the received wisdom was that Park Geun-Hye was a buffoonish character who was manipulated, but a good Korean friend said, when I wondered, after passing a group of people handing out leaflets in front of a banner with her face why this was still a thing, she said that she had met her in the context of her work and she was actually quite sharp and her impeachment was due to larger forces, which gave me pause and something to think about as the Democratic primaries kick into high gear. But back to the story.

When I departed from Korea out of Taegu for the last time, it was the last flight as the route was suspended the next day. As a point of contrast between Japan and Korea, I returned to announcements that all foreigners who had visited Taegu would be banned from entering Japan. Again, since all the flights from Taegu had been cancelled until further notice, the action was completely meaningless as there was no way to know if a foreigner had visited Taegu, except as a retroactive step, if someone had entered Japan, come down with corona and, in the course of investigating, was found to have visited Taegu, it immediately becomes the fault of the person rather than the system that failed to keep them out.

This raises one of the points I think distinguishes Korea and Japan. People often say that Korean has a 'ppallippalli' culture (link, link) and the response to corona is an example of that. Another friend suggested that Korean society was a lot like something that would be designed by a 16 year old genius: brilliant ideas, but not enough lived experience to avoid huge potholes. Still, the idea of not waiting, but doing something, seems to be baked into Korean culture.

On the other hand, Japan is a country that changes slowly, if at all. Outside of the Meiji revolution, (itself a rather protracted affair, but quite short compared to previous history), Japan is the opposite of ppallippalli. Karl van Wolferen, in The Enigma of Japanese Power, likened Japan to a hugh ship that can be turned only incrementally and currently (he was writing in the late 80's) is without a rudder. The book is not often on lists of books to read, in part because it offended Japanese so much, but it seems to me that the current administration of Abe Shinzo is an exemplar of this. For example, the day before yesterday, Abe announced that elementary and secondary schools should close until the start of the spring break (Japan school year starts in April, so the last few weeks of classes, which include graduation are in March) However, there was apparently no consideration of families with 2 working parents, nor understanding that hospital nursing staff will be a particular problem. This seems like a studied ignorance of women and society (a post about differences and similarities between Korea and Japan is on the back burner as well) but it is likely that the announcement permits Abe's government to claim they did what they could and schools will, in the absence of clear guidance, make various nods to the policy without actually doing it. Of course, with the Olympics coming to Tokyo, the concern is that it will impact that, and because Japan has become so dependent on tourism, there is a fine line to tread. I've got this open on my computer, which might be interesting if you want to see what's happening in Japan. But I'm not too optimistic with the reports of the cruise ship quarantine being a fiasco, and reports that hospitals are refusing to test for corona.

I'll finish up here, I'd be interested in seeing how much of this is familiar to all of you and what you are seeing where you are. Stay safe and wash your hands!!

[added]
Just as I hit post, I remembered that Hilzoy had posted a few times about dealing with flu, as well as getting a guest post, which I link here as they still have good information in them.
https://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2005/10/bird_flu_prepar.html
https://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2009/04/swine-flu-what-we-should-do-for-one-another.html
https://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2009/04/swine-flu.html
https://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2005/11/quarantine.html

Comments

[wj]

When you choose quarantine targets for political (rather than medical) reasons, you fail to get the medical benefits. And with Trump, there is no other criteria for selection than the political.

I wonder how soon he will decide to try to quarantine the state of Washington. Won't that be some fun court cases?!?

[Snarki, child of Loki]

"There are also rumors that there is a short unbroken chain of handshakes from one of the infected to Jabbabonk (and Pence) but no one dares to tell him. Shall we hope?"

Somehow, I don't see old white conservatives starting to use an 'elbow bump' as greeting, so the Trump admin is a target-rich environment for the virus.

[wj]

the Trump admin is a target-rich environment for the virus.

Especially as some of them (and it doesn't take a lot) see vaccinations as something to be avoided.

[John D Thullen]

The only way anyone is getting off that cruise ship anchored off the west coast before the election on which dozens of passengers are infected with and carrying the Coronavirus is by pledging loyalty and fealty to Donald Trump and the malignant, murderous Republican Party.

If you can't prove you are registered to vote Republican, they'll throw down some straw in steerage and you'll be there for the duration.

Republicans and conservatives on the ship infected with the virus will be escorted via RNC limousines, on the taxpayer tab, to polling places to vote and then be released into the general population to infect again with the conservative virus.

Further, ICE vermin, under orders from Trump and Steve Miller are planning the forcible evacuation of prominent liberals in San Francisco to the cruise ship for "political quarantine"

Protocols are being put in place by the corrupt conservative republican deep state at all levels of government across the country to stop and examine all registered Democrats before they enter polling places in November to test for fever and the virus, and most will be turned away from voting, because the republican operatives* screeners will also be questioning the basic humanity of anyone registered as a liberal along with all of the racial, sexual, and cultural traits vermin conservatives plan to weed out of the population.

Registered Republicans will not be screened.

Further, in red state jurisdictions across the country in which voting by mail is prevalent, postal inspectors and republican operatives chosen from among the fascist trump faithful* on voting commissions will destroy all "contaminated" ballots, which will be determined solely by racial, religious,, and cultural origins and one's party registration on the voting rolls.

Further, in states sporting majority fascist subhuman republican legislatures but legitimately elected Democratic Governors, the legislatures, as they have been doing in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and now, most recently in Kentucky, home of dead-man walking fuckers like McConnell and the zombie Paul family, will strip the Democratic Governors of powers and authority associated with maintaining fair and open voting in November.

I also expect Texas' Governor to declare the cities of Austin and parts of Houston hot zones to be quarantined for medical reasons (basically a prognosis that Democrats might have high turnout which must be stopped)

Any court cases resulting from these measures will be delayed when possible by fascist republican-appointed judges, including the no- longer-supreme-Court majority, or decided against the diseased liberal and minority plaintives and in favor of conservative movement filth.

I predict Rush Limbaugh will die (a possible ray of cleansing, sunshine amidst the darkening contagion of evil settling over America) painfully and expensively at commie gummint expense of his lung cancer in the weeks leading up to the November election but conservative movement operatives will prevent revealing the fact from the public and keep the body hidden as they run a campaign claiming the lying, venereal, hateful tyrant in indeed rallying after a bedside visit trump and pence and various crypto, Christian fakirs and their laying on of diseased hands to his emaciated, pneumonia-riddled (it's just the common cold) wasted person and fake video will be released of him exhorting the re-election of trump and the total destruction of the U.S. Government and the Democratic Party and all persons considered unAmerican.

That'as not the worst scenario. The worst is that he will live, the fucking ruinous piece of garbage.

wj will now counsel, in reasonable intonations like a lifeboat steward trying to engineer an orderly departure from the upended Titanic, that things might be bad but only half as bad as I depict in my comment. %-)

So carry on, but maybe grab what's left of the laid-out buffet lunch on the luxury first-class deck as you cinch up your life preservers, just in case.

We are in post-modernist deconstructed America by order of the trump conservative movement, so the faker the news, the more true it is, and vice versa as the normative compasses gyre and spin out of control into chaos and savage killing fury.

*such as this piece of ignorant dog shit:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8068137/Donald-Trump-supporter-rally-North-Carolina-says-doesnt-think-coronavirus-real.html

There are millions of her.

There won't be once the fury is released.

[John D Thullen]

Holy crap!:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3549568-oil-set-to-plunge-another-10-on-open

The socialist, commie conservative movement, using my hard-earned tax dollars, led by fucking scum Trump will bail out the dozens of over-leveraged fracking oil companies which will cascade into bankruptcy, causing catastrophic stress in the high yield bond market and sending the economy and markets into yet another conservative republican deregulated, low tax, cataclysm al a 1929, 1987, 2000-1, 2008-1910.

Obliterate the republican party.

Never let it govern us again. Kill it.

Everything they touch turns to shit.

[wj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ACUConservative/status/1236415113265102852

But Trump is vowing more big rallies. Looks like JDT may get his wish.

[John D Thullen]

These are not wishes.

They are predictions.

They are recognition of the horrible justified fate that comes to horrible people who have caused, via THEIR wishes, misery for the human race.

If I was wishing for the ultimate demise of this country's internal enemies, I would indeed have sunk as low as trump conservatives and republicans.

The bombing of Dresden was not a wish.

It was the logical answer and punishment to evil.

I don't wish to be worse than them.

I wish, I strive to be more ruthless than them, because we must be to see our way forward to a better day and a better way.

[John D Thullen]

A great headline summarizing a postmodern deconstructionist America full of shitheads who talk out their ass:

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/americans-say-they-wont-drink-corona-because-of-coronavirus-but-sales-are-up-5-51583610529?itm_source=parsely-api&mod=morebar_bomw

The Founders would re-pledge loyalty to the British Crown, load up the Mayflower with fresh fruit and sail back to England if they got a load of the rot from these filth.

I don't believe Cruz and Gosar, noted conservative self-dramatizing liars and cheats, shook hands with anyone:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/08/sen-ted-cruz-coronavirus-patient-self-quarantining/4996904002/

I wouldn't give them a vaccine concocted from raw sewage if their chromosomes were on fire.

Believe nothing Republicans say.

Believe nothing their governments pronounce.

They are not here to help anyone but themselves.

Open fire and ask questions later.

Kill their governments.

[John D Thullen]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-plunge-coronavirus-spreads-and-trump-retweets-image-of-himself-playing-a-fiddle-with-an-ominous-message-2020-03-08?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Overthrow, kill, butcher, and slaughter.

[John D Thullen]

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-rolls-back-rules-protecting-elderly/?fbclid=IwAR0uumhLOcKxSSG-KSaQo0GYIQnbZDU9a638Z5tpQoko8qOc2QzVmsyendg

Overthrow, kill, butcher, and slaughter all republican conservative murderers.

[John D Thullen]

Conservative republicans are murderers:

https://www.mediamatters.org/60-minutes/fiona-hill-tells-60-minutes-about-receiving-death-threats-after-she-was-targeted-roger

Every prominent liberal in the country and all the rest of us with no power must be armed at all times and shoot dead any republicans who dare approach us.

Trust no one.

[Hartmut]

In Germany we currently have the strange phenomenon of thrifty panic buying certain supplies. Mash, flour, toilet paper, tomato puree, cooking oil are sold out everywhere but only the 'no name' brands, the more expensive 'named' brands right next to them remain mostly untouched.

And someone stole the whole supply of disinfectant from the Berlin police academy.

[Snarki, child of Loki]

I have a plan for what to do if I come down with Coronavirus:

1. collect infected bio samples
2. add colored water, a bit of perfume
3. package in small handy spray bottles
4. sell for $1 each at Trump rallies.

It's the GOP way!

[Snarki, child of Loki]

ETA:
4. Sell for $1 each as HAND SANITIZER at Trump rallies.

Fake sanitizer for a 'fake' virus. Yet pure karma.

[liberal japonicus]

Above, Thullen noted that he Cruz self quarantined. This suggests that he's smart enough to know he's scamming everyone. I would expect that if Cotton were in the same position, they'd probably ignore it and if it were Gohmert, he'd probably try to test positive to prove it was all a liberal plot.

[John D Thullen]

At the behest of his new Chief of Staff, tax cheat Mark Meadows, Trump will hold a press conference today in which the inanely and sweetly grinning hater Kellyanne Conway will serve our esteemed President a tureen of soup with a live bat flopping around in the broth.

He will take the struggling, squeaking bat in his unwashed hands and bite the head off the creature, a la Ozzie Osborne, and chew and then spitfeed the bolus of bat chew directly from his mouth into the upturned baby bird gob of Larry Kudlow, who will swallow it, smack his lips, and exclaim "Yummy! It's what's for dinner!"

Kudlow will then turn to the camera and declare:
"We've got this thing under control. I'd buy stocks if I were you with both unwashed hands."

Then he will whoop and hoot like a sailor on shore leave seeking out every STD to be had in the scurviest, shit hole port of call in the world.

Mike Pence, standing to the side like a third-rate poorly crafted wax replica of a human being rejected from Madame Tussaud's exhibit, will throw up a little inside his Hazmat helmet, and with his crypto-Christian fingers crossed in devote insincerity behind his back, rip the helmet from his head, and plunge his face into the leftover tureen of broth and then, after kissing his wife, and only his wife, full on the mouth, projectile vomit the contents into the faces of the CNN, Washington Post, and New York Times reporters looking on in the front row and then, for good measure, sue the reporters for stealing food off his plate.

It's cleek's law meets Night of the Living Deconstructed Vermin Conservative Dead, in which Doris get her oats.

You know what to do. O, K, B, and S.

[John D Thullen]

Cruz is scamming.

This is quintessentially his opportunist evil fucking self on display seeking the main chance.

He will emerge from his "quarantine", in which he spends two weeks gorging on Cheetos with one hand and frantically masturbating his baby Jesus voodoo doll with the other, to enter the republican primary as trump is violently deposed.

His first act as President will be to remove all funding from every health agency in the government and replace them with free vouchers to attend the Church of the Living Government-Hating Conservative Assholes.

Are we to believe that my tax dollars were spent to use an otherwise rationed, for the rest of the prole American citizenry, diagnostic test on him to detect the Covid-19, which sounds like the name of a death planet in a dystopic interplanetary alien space movie?

I can't think of any better example of crony Communism.

Destroy them now.

[hairshirthedonist]

Ozzie Osborne

Ozzy, sans Harriet.

\m/

[John D Thullen]

These details are important to hold on to as the gyre widens and consumes. I actually spelled it correctly in the first draft.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/six-inmates-dead-scores-escape-as-prisoners-riot-across-italy-after-visitor-restrictions-over-coronavirus?via=newsletter&source=DDMorning

Disobey, resist, overthrow and kill the fascist right wing conservative movement Italian government.

[Nigel]

This is not good...
A D.C. priest has Coronavirus. He offered communion and shook hands with more than 500 worshippers last week and on February 24th...
https://twitter.com/SweeneyABC/status/1237018677360410624

[John D Thullen]

A tidal wave, a killing tidal wave:

https://twitter.com/SweeneyABC/status/1237018677360410624

[John D Thullen]

I repeated that link on purpose.

Read deep into it to see how savage cataclysmic fury is mounting.

[John D Thullen]

No. Conservative filth like Shapiro and Scaramucci will not be permitted to get out from under what they have created, and I'm certainly not politically correct enough to let them.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-presidential-tweet-that-caused-one-notable-conservative-commentator-to-urge-trump-to-stop-2020-03-09?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

They will be separated from the decent population, along with killers who interview them, such as Hannity, that fucking c*nt, and scheduled for quick execution along with the ringleaders.

It's going to take a long time to finish that job.

[John D Thullen]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/head-of-port-authority-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-2020-03-09?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

The Dow Jones Transports have been the sharpest falling knife among the averages, leading the world's conservative economy to ruin:

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DJT&insttype=Index&freq=1&show=&time=9

[John D Thullen]

Went from store to store yesterday looking for hand wipes.

Nada.

Same as Hartmut says, all flu and cold medicines gone. Shelves empty.

Didn't check the toilet paper aisle because I already knew.

Marshmallows, deodorant, and boxer shorts, for example, were in good supply, however, but they never seem to be in demand during apocalypses.

If good extra terrestrial aliens show up eons after Earth's demise and the human race is extinguished, they will note on account of their superior wisdom and knowledge that, indeed, marshmallows, deodorant, and boxer shorts, when cobbled together algorithmically somehow, work fine as defense against asteroids, famine, genocide, and all manner of worldwide pestilence and plagues, but they'll shrug their shoulders in wonderment that the human race believed time after time that toilet paper and guns might be the answer to all lifes problems.

I stood back and observed women, probably mothers, approach the medicine shelves at Target, Walgreens, and WalMart and stand there with their mouths open, stunned. They might look around as if someone might point to a cache of what they need, but no such luck.

But things were eerily calm.

I washed my hands in a store bathroom, not drying them, and washed them again when I arrived home.

Purell is gone on Amazon.

The CDC says today to stockpile food. I'm in good shape there, but might go out today and have a look see.

I might visit a gun store to learn if bullets can cure what ails us. And maybe they carry military hand wipes. Ya think?

The night before last, after dark, a male pedestrian was hit by a car and killed instantly right outside my apartment building. I happened to look out the window a few minutes after tragedy. The driver, thank goodness, did not flee the scene.

I could see his body for the next two hours lying in a pool of blood in the street as the cops cordoned the area off, and investigators showed up with their tape measures and possible witnesses were interviewed.

At one point, I walked around the area without entering the cordoned off section of the street.

Again, it was all very weirdly quiet and calm. No one spoke. They just looked at me and then looked away.

He may have been this guy, perhaps trying to warn people (he may have been headed to the VA hospital up the block where aliens are known to have insinuated themselves into high management positions) and he was outwardly showing empathy and emotion and then he was gotten to by the fascist aliens running the country.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2XWa1XuKSI

It might be wise, as a precaution, when in public, to try to blend in with the ruling right wing conservative Zeitgeist. Any show of empathy for the sick, the downtrodden, the poor, blacks, immigrants, gays, the elderly, orphans, the mothers of stillborn fetuses, is a marker for the alien infestation in America to target and attack and destroy any trace or hint of what they term "political correctness".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTP_SdjD5ms

They are constantly running workshops on right wing radio and TV and on the internet to teach their operatives who are everywhere, what to watch for.

It's the conservative movement's disciplined program of social distancing, I think, started by Newt Gingrich decades ago, as they ready themselves for their ultimate goal of social cleansing.

The only visible emotion on their faces is a grotesque leering smirk and perhaps a guttural half-laugh as they explain how to ruin a liberal's day.

They swarm when empathy is detected. One of their tells when they about to swarm is that their faces arrange themselves in that odd expression that Tucker Carlson assumes when a certifiably insane psychopathic guest he is interviewing tells him which groups of humans that Americans must hate and treat like dog shit.

Most of that story is factual.

All of it is true.

[John D Thullen]

What business does the gummint have meddling in free market buyer-seller transactions:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ftc-and-fda-order-companies-to-stop-selling-scam-products-to-treat-or-prevent-coronavirus-2020-03-09?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Why, if Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, or Fidel Castro ordered such an interference in human freedom, right wing militias, at the behest of right wing think tanks would hunt them down.

We can't have this sort of thing going on right under our runny noses.

[GftNC]

Very interesting and informative thread by a professor of chemistry about why soap is actually very effective against Covid-19 and similar viruses, more so even than hand sanitiser gels etc:

https://twitter.com/PalliThordarson/status/1236549305189597189

[russell]

The markets are roaring

[wj]

The term I have seen most is "cratering". But rather than "roaring" (which feels like charging upwards) I would incline to "howling" (as in pain).

What Trump's frantic response is remains to be seen. But at least, when the markets persist in tanking, he will be more inclined to move beyond denial and actually let his people do something. Now it's just a matter of those being actual, you know, experts . . . in something other than PR.

[John D Thullen]

" ... he will be more inclined to move beyond denial and actually let his people do something."

What possibly in our observation of this lout's entire dreadful existence could lead you to that conclusion?

There was a guy who early in his life decided to eat an entire automobile, piece by piece, bolt by bolt, as a piece of performance art.

He was still eating it when he croaked, and his death certificate didn't mention indigestion.

He just ran out of time. I think they could drive the car away, but who wants a partially eaten car?

His Surgeon General, formerly an associate in AIDS denial with His Holeintheheadness Mike Pence, says Trump is healthier than he is.

That's like finding out from the exterminators that termites have eaten through all of the load-bearing support walls in your house, so you'd better move.

The only for it is to shorten Trump's time.

[Marty]

A runny nose is not a symptom of this Coronavirus. It sometimes creates a stuffy nose but not runny.

So,

"We can't have this sort of thing going on right under our STUFFY noses."

[CharlesWT]

..., when the markets persist in tanking, he will be more inclined to move beyond denial and actually let his people do something.

I hope not. Most likely they will do something ineffective at great expense. Or something that will make things much worse.

Politician's syllogism

Therefore, we must do something: A great demonstration of politician logic.

[John D Thullen]

As in the ridiculous use of the word "volatility" in the markets, "roaring" is also absurd.

Why can't a stock market "roar" (Russell was being ironic) when it's "plunging" as well it's when it is "soaring".

Both bulls and bears can roar.

You could hear the roar of the World Trade Center Towers as they vaporized and millions tons of steel and glass went to rubble at zero elevation in minutes.

They didn't roar when they were putting the things up.

[John D Thullen]

Thank you, Doctor Marty Fine.

And thank you, Dr. Charles Doom.

[hairshirthedonist]

It's only fair that your nose can run if your feet can smell.

[John D Thullen]

The officaldumb of America First Policies should be hunted down and shot in their fucking heads as a warning that any stealing of the 2020 election will result in America-ending violence.

Didn't trump appoint an election commission to stop this stuff bwa-ha-ha-ahhaha.

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a31285759/florida-first-voter-registration-republican-america-first-policies/

It may be true that doing nothing is better than doing harm, but in the case of vote tampering, I'm all for doing something horrible and making everything worse and harming the perpetrators to the max.

[John D Thullen]

More on wj's:

"... he will be more inclined to move beyond denial and actually let his people do something."

"Vanity Fair's Gabe Sherman reports, by way of someone "close to the administration," that the still-alleged president of the United States is tipping into new conspiracy theories now, and is "afraid journalists will try to purposefully contract coronavirus to give it to him on Air Force One."

Oh dear.

He also has instructed his Secret Service to "set up a screening program and bar anyone who has a cough from the White House grounds."

Oh dear."

You can see where this is going. In the same direction at a faster pace as it has been going since November 2016.

Every hour, every tweet will lead America closer to mortal danger and a violent authoritarian crack down on trump's enemies.

What are the Secret Service and the military up to?

They are armed.

Why haven't they acted to protect the American people from this insane, malignant tyrant?

He's not leaving the White House even if the Democrats overcome massive election fraud by the Republican Party and somehow win the Electoral College.

He's not leaving. I'm telling you.

This guy has told you, and he ain't no liberal:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/02/opinion/trump-leave-white-house.html

[russell]

This is like my third or fourth time around with world historical (or hysterical) OMG THE SKY IS FALLING market panic selling. We'll all get through it one way or another, or most of us will anyway - one way or another - but I'm always amazed at what chickensh*ts the "professional investors" are.

These guys aren't investing, they're gambling. And they're f*cking it up for people who actually are interested in *investing* over time scales longer than a day.

[John D Thullen]

Now Nunes has allegedly "quarantined" himself because of a handshake.

Interesting bunch of rabid trump supporters suddenly disappearing from the scene, no?

What do you suppose they are up, in such secrecy?

Are they meeting with right wing military vermin and militia filth to help trump plan his authoritarian, violent crackdown on their mutual enemies, while using the coronavirus outbreak as deep state cover for their machinations?

Will they emerge after the troubles start as trump's junta, sporting MAGA epaulettes and dark glasses to assume positions at newly created internal security "ministries" and flicking riding crops across their Banana Republic jodhpurs.

I don't believe Limbaugh's claim of a cancer diagnosis either, though it's superlative news if true.

Something smells there and it's not my feet.

Or, are they simply faking exposure to the virus, only to emerge fakely free of symptoms in a few weeks, and thus supporting trump's ravings that we're dealing with nothing more than the common cold.

Interesting too that now Congress is contemplating shutting down to "reportedly" shield its older members from the virus contagion.

That certainly gets a major leg of government, plus the fourth estate, except of course for the Murdoch Ministry of Truth, out of the way and out of Washington D.C. as the junta begins its dirty work of imposing martial law or worse.

Fascinating too the very subhuman vermin who hate our government and seek to destroy it at every turn and who minutes ago were claiming we having nothing to fear from the virus, are now claiming to be vectors for the spread of a disease that could infect large numbers of their hated government civil service employees and send them into quarantine as well, thus achieve the very destruction of government that has been their goal since Ronald Reagan, the left wing union organizer, stepped down off his spavined Hollywood B-movie nag after being recruited by Moscow to become a fake Republican and destabilize and destroy the US government from within.

[sapient]

This is like my third or fourth time around with world historical (or hysterical) OMG THE SKY IS FALLING market panic selling.

Unless you're saving it for your heirs, at some point you're going to need it. Sometimes people need it (maybe a chunk of it, for whatever reason) during a downturn. I agree that if you're not in that position, it's something to ride out and ignore. Some of us are in a position of relying on our retirement money (because of an unforeseen event, or maybe just bad planning).

I'm glad you're fine, and your advice to most people who are fine is fine. It's not fine for everyone. I am a bit perplexed as to why enlightened people who happen to be fine are saying "Relax! It's fine!"

[wj]

I'm always amazed at what chickensh*ts the "professional investors" are.

These guys aren't investing, they're gambling.

What amazes me is the folks who aren't "professional investors". But when the market goes down, they start calling in hysterically to their financial adviser/broker. It's like they've been drinking the kool-aid, even though they aren't actually involved in the gambling.

[sapient]

wj, your portfolio must be quite healthy, and perhaps you're not even drawing on it. Great to ignore the bad news and ridicule those who can't!

[sapient]

Glad y'all are so freaking comfortable.

There are a whole lot of industries that are going to lay people off, and their lives are going to suck. It's fine though!

[John D Thullen]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-larrykudlow-stocks-americas-worst-financial-advisor-215108082.html

Most elite Wall Street sell side liars are like this fucking proved catastrophically wrong multiple times fool.

You don't need them goosing you like a whoopy cushion when the market trend is up and you absolutely don't WANT him goosing you while faking holding your hand when the market goes into the shitter.

He MIGHT qualify professionally as a circle jerk leader in a 12-step program, but like everyone the trump republican party elevates to a position far above their meager talents and in contradiction to every rule of meritocracy, he is dangerous playing with matches.

This is my fifth major bear market.

I have less time to recover this time.

Obama was much more profitable for my "portfolio".

[John D Thullen]

Yes, and sapient correct. It is the wage earners, especially the low-wage earners who are going to suffer with losing their jobs.

But, once again, as every fucking time around, conservatives and republicans will blame the victims as layabout takers who ought to go find a job and we'd better cut unemployment benefits and the rest of the safety net as well because it disincents work, when really the only fucking thing that disincents work is being forced to NOT work by being laid off and fired and made redundant and let go, and whatever the fuck they like to call it.

You watch. Conservatives will demonize and shame the unemployed. All they will do is call for tax cuts on themselves and the money will once again disappear into the stock buyback sinkhole and the offshore accounts.

But this time around will be different.

Americans have fucking had it with these entitled scum.

This time around, a white collar republican rolls down his car window and tells an unemployed guy on the corner to "Get a Job!", a crowd is going to gather, pull that fucker out of his car, beat the shit out of him, and burn his car to the ground.

People have fucking had it.

[liberal japonicus]

Sapient, I think you are missing the point of why a lot of people here are discussing the stock market in the terms we are. It's not because we are so comfortable, it's that everyone wants to just point out that the chickens are coming home to roost...

[nous]

This from a sustainable investment advisor that I went to college with back in the day:

https://horizonssfs.com/politics-pandemic-and-petroleum/

"What else can we do? Maybe there are things we can do to reduce the three sources of stress on the markets: contact our elected representatives, and vote in upcoming elections; prepare for the arrival of coronavirus in our area, in order to slow its spread, prevent contracting it, and care for those who do get sick; and work to “Decarbonize America and the World”, so that oil shocks won’t throw our global economy into disarray again."

[wj]

wj, your portfolio must be quite healthy, and perhaps you're not even drawing on it. Great to ignore the bad news and ridicule those who can't!

sapient, actually I'm just aware that there really isn't anything constructive I can do regarding my portfolio. Except refrain from panic selling; which isn't the same as selling to meet actual expenses.

No ridicule intended to those who are really hurt. Just for those who only sell when the market tanks . . . even though they don't need the money for expenses.

[wj]

There are a whole lot of industries that are going to lay people off, and their lives are going to suck. It's fine though!

But those layoffs, like the plunging stock prices, are symptoms. The cause is the disease -- exacerbated by the inept handling of it.

[wj]

From nous' link:

WHAT SHOULD WE DO?
We need to think carefully before we consider doing anything; and even then, we should probably do nothing.

[sapient]

I think you are missing the point of why a lot of people here are discussing the stock market in the terms we are.

I also am a "we," sort of. And I get it that some people can ride the tide, and that the crisis here is long overdue, and that "we" are laughing at the traders whose panic is funny because they make tons of money, and some of them bet wrong, and that the stock market shouldn't be about betting. And that Trump's financial disaster was expected (and, honestly, I expected it, and made a dangerous and, maybe in the end, saluatory move to avert the current horror - but maybe with some undesirable side effects). So, no, I'm not missing the point.

I'm not missing the point, because I remember relentlessly trying to post numbers about the economy under Obama and Clinton, and yet, in 2016 people here (yes, right here) were constantly grieving about the sad 3% or whatever of people who were "economically anxious".

Yeah. Stop it. We're now much more economically anxious, as we were under Bush II. And it's not going to be okay for a hell of a lot of people.

[CharlesWT]

"Investors evidently, for the moment, think that the novel coronavirus outbreak is going to hurt the global economy. The S&P 500 stock index is down about 19 percent from its highs a month ago. Only time will tell if those fears are justified, but a couple of economists at the Australian National University use econometric modeling to trace out scenarios to help the public and policymakers better understand how the COVID-19 epidemic could play out over the coming year. Keep firmly in mind that these are scenarios, not predictions.
...
Although the coronavirus is continuing its spread across the globe, the fact that China has reported 3,120 deaths and the rate of infection is dropping suggests that even the Australians' best-case scenario may prove to be too pessimistic. Let's hope so."[Take any numbers coming out of China with a pound of salt.]
How Badly Could the Novel Coronavirus Epidemic Whack the U.S. Economy?: Looking at better and worse projections.

[russell]

It's not fine for everyone.

My wife is retired and her income is basically from what she saved over the years. I'm still working but I'm three years out from full retirement, and I'd actually like to retire then.

We're basically fine in the sense that we're not facing financial ruin. We are, however, losing lots of money. Which is having and will continue to have an impact on our lives at some level.

We're unlikely to lose the house or starve. So we are in fact very lucky, and I'm grateful for that.

If I suggest that people not freak out, it's because freaking out pretty much never makes anything better. I am by no means minimizing the impact that this crap is having on people's lives.

[sapient]

We're unlikely to lose the house or starve. So we are in fact very lucky, and I'm grateful for that.

If I suggest that people not freak out, it's because freaking out pretty much never makes anything better.

I may, in fact, lose my house. Maybe not, and I planned for that, and will not be homeless. Some people may not be so lucky.

Nobody wants to freak out. Some people will, because their future looks very bleak, or their plans weren't enough. Freaking out is not a choice.

[russell]

Freaking out is not a choice.

You are correct, quite often it is not. Apologies for minimizing the impact this is going to have on a lot of people.

[sapient]

Thanks, russell.

[bobbyp]

When the market crashed under GW Bush the stupid, I was kicking myself because I had no cash and wanted to BUY, BUY, BUY. Because I started late, I stayed 100% in aggressive cap growth funds 2001- 2017.

Since GOP administrations typically find a way to tank the market, I figured the idiot Trump was a shoo-in for a clusterfuck, so I mostly got out and missed a big gain.

But hey, I'm 71 now, so win some, lose some. However, I would note that today's GOP is possibly running true to form on this matter.

How they time their electoral wins to imminent market decline is a mystery. You'd think they would learn from their mistakes.

[bobbyp]

Half of all US households own not one share of stock. The top 10% own 84% of all equities.

So when the market swoons and the recession hits, the poors don't take a hit in their financial holdings because, by definition, they don't have any.

They just lose their jobs, and can then sleep under bridges, just like rich folks.

[liberal japonicus]

I'm not missing the point, because I remember relentlessly trying to post numbers about the economy under Obama and Clinton, and yet, in 2016 people here (yes, right here) were constantly grieving about the sad 3% or whatever of people who were "economically anxious".

If the people you are calling out are the same as the 2016 people you refer to, sure, but I don't think that is the case. I think everyone talking here is well aware how this will impact on people who are low on the economic scale.

[CharlesWT]

My Bitcoin tanked along with the stockmarket. :(

[sapient]

If the people you are calling out are the same as the 2016 people you refer to, sure, but I don't think that is the case. I think everyone talking here is well aware how this will impact on people who are low on the economic scale.

Let me just say that I adore russell and bobbyp (for two), and actually you, lj, despite our arguments.

But in 2016, bobbyp and russell most definitely kept bringing up the enclaves of people who were poorly served by Obama's economy (and, yes, I know that they both supported Democrats in the end, and I don't want to pick those bones with them too hard, because I know that they are on my side). But my discussion with russell here was constructive. It's not just people "low on the economic scale". It's recent retirees, or people who have counted on their IRA's in the short term (by the way, IRA's can't be taken out without a huge tax hit - that was my mistake), or people who have some issue, whether because of a mistake or an emergency.

It's a lot of people. Let me be clear: it could be any of us, if we have family members who contributed to the family income but unexpectedly became dependents, or some other thing that we didn't really plan for.

[wj]

Nobody wants to freak out. Some people will, because their future looks very bleak, or their plans weren't enough. Freaking out is not a choice.

My point, obviously very poorly made, was precisely that these folks I was talking about are people for whom it IS a choice. They aren't going to see real harm. But they are freaking out anyway.

Those who are going to see real harm are a different story. (And typically aren't worked up over the stock market per se.)

[sapient]

And typically aren't worked up over the stock market per se.

And you know this how? A hunch, perhaps?

[wj]

And you know this how? A hunch, perhaps?

As it happens, I know some people who aren't wealthy enough to be owning stock. Admittedly, it's a small sample. (Comes of being an introvert. The sum total of my acquaintances isn't a very big sample.) But it's a few steps upwards from a "hunch" -- even a non-Trump hunch.

[liberal japonicus]

Again, this is one of those tone arguments, but I don't feel that

Glad y'all are so freaking comfortable.

really is what is optimal or constructive to say.

I tend to stay out of stock market discussions, it is difficult to get the requisite knowledge to discuss without having to wade thru tons and tons of writing has biases that aren't immediately apparent. It's would be like me discussing the finer details of a sport whose rules I don't know. Not that stops people, but I just prefer not to.

At any rate, as you probably realize, I don't like demanding bona fides (as in so, "do you know anyone who doesn't have a portfolio?") not because it is not something to consider, but it seems more a way to shut down conversation than to keep it going. ymmv

There are a few other things I'd like to say, but this is my first day after the end of self quarantine, so I have to get outside. Play nice please.

[John D Thullen]

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/qanon-satanic-cabal-obsession-donald-trump-dan-scavino-nothing-can-stop-whats-coming

Who is Dan Scavino and where are the patriotic armed republicans in this country who are not shooting him in his head?

When will patriotic armed conservatives for the country instead of fighting taxes, or healthcare coverage for thu uninsured or despoiling our public lands with resource extraction?

Step up and do something with the guns the Supreme Court mistakenly gave you.

[Donald]

Delurking only because this is incredibly disgusting if true. I don’t know if it is true. Just read it on a tweet. I sent it to the NYT reader center in hopes that they look into it.

https://twitter.com/colinkalmbacher/status/1237186040676454400

The claim is that some government agency is telling immigration judges to take down posters telling people how to prevent the spread of the virus.

I can’t think of a good motive ( even a good evil one so to speak) for this, so maybe it is not true. But you might want to look into it if you know how to do so or pass it on to some news source who could.

[Donald]

Previous link goes to that guy’s twitter account in general. Here is the specific tweet.

https://twitter.com/colinkalmbacher/status/1237186040676454400

I am not familiar with him. I found him by way of some lefty I read, Eoin Higgins.

[Donald]

Think I screwed up again. Anyway, you should be able to find it.

[wj]

There was a tweet further down, quoting the DoJ. It said basically that the posters should not have been removed, and the matter was being "rectified." Sounds more like one of Steven Miller's fan boys taking some initiative, than an actual immigration policy. No less evil, but perhaps more localized.

[bobbyp]

My Bitcoin scam tanked along with the stockmarket. :(

Fixed.

[bobbyp]

The Prime Directive of the Rethuglican Party is simply this: They want to screw you.

[novakant]

in 2016, bobbyp and russell most definitely kept bringing up the enclaves of people who were poorly served by Obama's economy

the horror...

[Donald]

Economic anxiety is obviously real and has been around for a long time.

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2020/03/26/left-behind-life-expectancy-crisis/

[McKinneyTexas]

It may be a little different this time. Even a great president--counterfactual, yes, I know--would have a hard time managing coronavirus coupled with the Saudi/Russian pissing match. WJ is right, as well. It's the inexperienced investors whose instincts lead them to the worst kinds of market timing (that would be me historically, so I'm speaking from experience); however, this time is different. BTW, "different" will be getting a lot of use in the next few weeks and months. A lot of people who should know what they are doing seem to be dumping as well.

The open question is what kind of rebound will there be when things bottom out assuming they do. The carnage in the mean time will hit pretty much everyone, particularly those who are close to retirement and who depend on their savings as a major component thereof.

[CharlesWT]

"As you know, the coronavirus is arguably the most pressing issue happening not only in Asia, but throughout the world. Currently, China and South Korea have the most confirmed cases of coronavirus. But in nearby Japan, the number of confirmed cases remains curiously low. Have you wondered why this is the case? As it turns out, the Japanese government has received a lot of criticism for its limited testing and only recently started picking it up due to international pressure, boosting its testing capacity to 7,000 a day. So how do Japanese citizens feel about the government’s response to the coronavirus? Are they even fearful of the coronavirus in the first place? We hit the streets of Tokyo to find out."
Asian Boss: How The Japanese Are Dealing With the Coronavirus (YouTube)

[wj]

the Japanese government .. . only recently started picking [its testing capacity] up . . . , boosting its testing capacity to 7,000 a day.

Meanwhile, the total number of cases which have been tested in the whole US is . . . less than that. Yeah, us! Keeping Trump's numbers low.

[cleek]

picking winners and losers. it's the Republican way, today.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/10/trump-oil-bailout/

[CharlesWT]

I can't get no disinfection (YouTube)

[nous]

Harvard, Columbia, Princeton, Rice, Stanford, Berkeley, and the University of Washington (to name just a few) have all announced a shift to online courses for the spring. There's noise here that we may be doing something similar following the quarter break in two weeks.

As an adjunct, I look at this and see a lot of unpaid labor going toward a less effective pedagogy and I foresee university administrations trying to figure out how they can do this on a more permanent basis to try to reduce overhead.

College is already much reduced as a transformative experience by ubiquitous computing. If this takes root the way that the Patriot Act bullshit did to become the new normal, I see that trend continuing. We will be left with a largely hollowed out higher ed system.

So mad right now.

[Nigel]

UK junior health minister comes down with the bug.

While holding a constituency surgery.

[nous]

Aaaand it's official.

All classes for Spring which are not hands-on lab courses are moving to online courses and students who can access remotely from off-campus are encouraged not to come back from break to stay in the residence halls.

One possible case of COVID-19 on campus.

Every winter for the past 15 years I've at least three students go down with the flu and the university has gone on its merry way.

I do not even begin to understand this particular cascading rush.

[wj]

Every winter for the past 15 years I've at least three students go down with the flu and the university has gone on its merry way.

3 out of how many? An article in Lancet
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext#%20
suggests that, absent adequate efforts to curtail transmission, something like 60% of the population** will catch covid-19. Perhaps those taking extraordinary steps to cut down people in groups actually are on to something.

** If you believe the data from Korea and Japan, children seem much more resilient than adults. Which means an even bigger fraction of the adult population down sick.

[cleek]

I do not even begin to understand this particular cascading rush.

COVID19 is at least an order of magnitude more lethal than seasonal flu.

[bobbyp]

COVID19 is at least an order of magnitude more lethal than seasonal flu.

Yup. But most don't have the vaguest clue about what "order of magnitude" means. I blame private schools.

[JanieM]

nous: I do not even begin to understand this particular cascading rush.

Maybe this will help.

If you're questioning whether specific measures will help flatten the curve, that's one thing. But if you think we don't even need to try, then I'm curious why. With some people I would assume it was Fox News, but with you ... not so much.

[liberal japonicus]

nous, here in Japan, it looks like the school start will be pushed back to April. Some schools calculate the part timers pay and pay them equal installments each month, but other schools (like mine) pay by the class. Nothing has been cancelled yet (and our faculty meetings are very short, so there is hasn't been any opportunity for discussion), but it will be interesting when I point this out, and I've raised it on facebook in some groups I'm in that have tenured foreign faculty.

Unfortunately, I think it will be similar to the recent Harvard decision to kick the students out of the dorms with 5 days notice. This article has some of the tweets pointing out some of the stupidities of this
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/harvard-gives-students-5-days-to-evacuate-dorms-over-coronavirus-fears.html

However, I think COVID is different from flu because of the chart in this pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Over 80 gets hammered. The nursing home in Kirkland said
"Since Feb. 19, Killian noted that 11 patients have died within the facility on top of the 15 at hospitals. He clarified that the center typically sees three to seven deaths monthly, and that there have not yet been any reports post-mortem whether those in-facility patients tested positive for coronavirus."

That's 26 out of 120 or so. It was more a hospice, so some of those weren't COVID related, but I wonder if some died before the virus was identified.

https://www.bellevuereporter.com/news/life-care-center-of-kirkland-breaks-silence-at-saturday-press-conference/

This is just me speculating, but given the US propensity to avoid thinking about age, this virus hits a real blindspot. I feel like the big push in Korea is due to it being an aging society, though Japan's laissez faire attitude is a bit perplexing, though, as I've said, I think the Olympics is the first ten points and the demographics is way down the list.

I'll also toss this out, if you (or any other regular) would like to write a front page post about what is happening where you are, please send it in. Reading the news doesn't really give an on the ground impression, and we have people in different places, so I would be very interested to hear about it. Thx.

Also a small bleg, nous, are you in the UC system and is this a UC system decision or based on the individual unis? My daughter is at UCSB and they have just told them next term will all be online. She's fortunate, if she gets kicked out of the dorm, she could stay with my brother, but I'm wondering if things keep getting bad, if she'll be turned out of her dorm.

[hairshirthedonist]

Maybe this will help.

That was a good find, JanieM. Thank you.

[JanieM]

More.

But I'll just summarize by saying: Anne Laurie at BJ is doing daily compilations of information from various sources.

[John D Thullen]

The National Guard just shut down the tony town of New Rochelle, New York.

Which would be amusing if Rob, Laura, and Richie Petrie were still living in that petri dish.

Ohh, Robbbb!

It is claimed that Trump has been in bodily contact with the chain of handshakes (what does a handshake between predatory reptiles man exactly?) exchanged among the monster vermin at the CPAC.

Trump refuses to be tested.

Again, are we to believe that the most extreme of Trump's butt kissers ... Cruz, Gaetz, Nunes, Collins, Schlapp, or Schapp, or Flap or whatever his name is, are the ones who shook hands with the anonymous (they refuse to identify that guy) muck-a-muck at CPAC contaminated by the virus.

I smell kabuki. Deadly kabuki.

They are congenital liars. They aren't exposed. It's just a lying ploy to convince us that this disease is a hoax.

We are living in their alternative reality, just as we do in their global climate change alternative reality.

I'm going to kill their reality and their governments, which they run and ruin in such a way to prove that government sucks and should be abolished.

Believe nothing these ilk say.

They are the hoax.

They are the vector of a malignity but more deadly that this virus, bad as the latter going to get, and on that score, while China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea seem to be, if the reporting is accurate, with a reduced number of new cases, in other words, maybe, if we are lucky, those countries are experiencing the back end of the J curve of this disease.

But they have governments.

We don't. We have filth who hate government and who believe pig fucker Reagan's most terrifying words.

Like Italy, it seems we are just beginning the ascent of the J, hockey stick curve.

Wait until you read my upcoming rant on the commie, pinko, socialist crony conservative movement under trump threatening to subsidize, nationalize, and own the means of production in the fracking and luxury cruise industries.

What, don;t we have enough fat black, cadillac-driving welfare queen parasites sucking on my tits?

Hanh, assholes?

Have conservatives ever considered just shutting their fucking mouths?

Hell, Sanders the capitalist would let the industries just fail, the losers, and work it out in bankruptcy court.

Well, there's the rant, so I don't need to go into it again.

Destroy all conservative movement republican government.

Harold Hamm, thy name is Clement Atlee. Sove yer fake cowboy boots up your ass.

Just fucking kill it.

[cleek]

I do not even begin to understand this particular cascading rush.

if CV explodes across the US (as many suspect it will), we're going to see a lot of the dreaded 'rationing' of health care, as hospitals find themselves unable to handle the load.

China locked their country down, and built that giant pre-fab treatment facility to cope with the numbers. but i doubt we're going to be able to do that. we've failed to contain the spread to one area - it's going to be everywhere at the same time.

and the reason experts are worried is not that they think everyone is going to get it and die - most will get it, feel bad and then feel better. but a decent fraction won't. and a decent fraction of a very large number is a large number. and the number of people who will need serious treatment is going to be greater than what we can handle.

[John D Thullen]

as with all rants, spittle fills in for missing words, misspelled words, and the tyranny of the feral semicolon.

Figure it out for yourselves.

[John D Thullen]

My kid is at University of Michigan as a postdoc in the Chemistry Department.

He lives alone in an apartment.

I sent him an email this morning saying to be careful.

He is.

Plus, he'll go all sciencecy on me, which is fine because he's not vermin republican anti-science government.

[hairshirthedonist]

From JanieM's 10:12 AM link:

When the influenza epidemic of 1918 infected a quarter of the U.S. population, killing tens of millions of people, seemingly small choices made the difference between life and death.

As the disease was spreading, Wilmer Krusen, Philadelphia’s health commissioner, allowed a huge parade to take place on September 28; some 200,000 people marched. In the following days and weeks, the bodies piled up in the city’s morgues. By the end of the season, 12,000 residents had died.

In St. Louis, a public-health commissioner named Max Starkloff decided to shut the city down. Ignoring the objections of influential businessmen, he closed the city’s schools, bars, cinemas, and sporting events. Thanks to his bold and unpopular actions, the per capita fatality rate in St. Louis was half that of Philadelphia. (In total, roughly 1,700 people died from influenza in St Louis.)

In the coming days, thousands of people across the country will face the choice between becoming a Wilmer Krusen or a Max Starkloff.

A couple weekends ago, I was at The Mütter Museum at The College of Physicians of Philadelphia. The special exhibition was Going Viral: Infection Through the Ages.

http://muttermuseum.org/exhibitions/going-viral-infection-through-the-ages/

It's been the special exhibit since last November, so it was coincidental that we'd be dealing with a global contagion while it was on display. Anywho, the museum being in Philadelphia, the 1918 flu and the ill-advised parade that spread it so rapidly in Philadelphia was heavily featured.

(Incidentally, my great grandparents and their newborn baby died of the flu in 1918, leaving my grandmother and her other 4 siblings orphaned, though in Youngstown, Ohio, not Philadelphia.)

[nous]

LJ - the campuses in the UC are making this decision. It was not a system wide decision. They are not turning people out of the dorms - can't charge room and board if they shut those down - they are just asking people to stay home if they can.

I get that we are trying to flatten the curve. I get that universities are cancelling non-essential travel and closing sporting events. But given the young population (faculty excepted) and the residential nature of colleges, I'd think that they would be relatively less affected.

The real worry would be among adjunct faculty, and since we are currently bargaining over a new contract I can report with some certainty that the UC does not give a shit about our health and wellbeing.

Granted, I could be just too angry about the decision process to respond reasonably. A lot has just been dumped on a very contingent and precarious group of teachers and it does not seem these decisions have been thought through for their long-term implications.

[JanieM]

I'd think that they would be relatively less affected.

No man is an island, especially in terms of the spread of disease. Those relatively less affected can still carry the illness to those relatively more affected. The fact that younger people won't get as sick doesn't mean they won't contribute to the steepness of the curve.

I get your anger about the decision-making process and the treatment of adjuncts. (I have been an adjunct myself, if only briefly.) But there are better and worse ways to address that problem.

As a related example, we just had a vote in Maine -- a people's veto effort to overturn a newly passed law that says that abolishes "religious and philosophical" exemptions for getting your kids vaccinated if you want them to go to school. Someone I know was hesitating about how to vote, on the theory that if the law was left in place, the pharma companies would start (?) price-gouging. In fact, the entire repeal campaign was based on attacking "Big Pharma" -- signs were everywhere saying "Stop Big Pharma."

What I said to my friend was: price-gouging on the part of pharmaceutical companies is a problem that we have to solve, no doubt about it, but we do not have to solve it -- we most definitely SHOULD NOT solve it -- by opening up our populations to the loss of herd immunity for diseases like measles and polio, which I remember the effects of from my own childhood.

[wj]

I wonder how much of the opposition to vaccination stems from people just being too young to have vivid personal memories of what live with measles, polio, etc. was actually like. Hard to believe that anyone who actually lived thru it would want to subject their own children to it. But if it's just dry and dusty history, I suppose it's easier to just assume that it couldn't have been all that bad.

[Hartmut]

In Berlin, Germany, all* state-run theatres, opera and concert houses have as of yesterday closed until the end of Easter holidays (mid-April). A general ban (in all of Germany) of events > 1000 people is considered but for the moment postponed.
About half (26) of all currently known cases in Berlin can be traced back to a single club/disco.
In Brandenburg a single case at a school has led to quarantining 4-5000 people. Unfortunately, it was a boarding school combined with several other schools in a single complex, so the group affected includes the faculty of all those schools, the kids and the relatives living with them, thus the great number despite the provincial setting.
I do not register any overt panic around here. But the RW AfD party tries to make hay off the crisis by targeting foreigners. But they are not as blatant as their cousins in spirit in Austria (the FPÖ), who loudly drum for closing the borders (ideally permanently) and blame the whole crisis on illegal immigrants.

*currently only those with a capacity of 500 or more but that is the vast majority.

[nous]

It's not just that the young are less affected, they also don't go much of anywhere while they are on campus. Campuses are fairly closed communities. I would expect that, with sports and conferences closed, your average campus would spread things to the outside population more slowly than would having those same students all off-campus and interacting more widely.

Unless they are just thinking about the dispersion and not about the breadth of contact.

[Nigel]

Doesn't the vaccine scepticism date back to Ford's misguided swine flu vaccine program, which probably;y put the nail in his re-election prospects ?