by wj
It is pretty clear that President Trump’s hopes for re-election depend enormously on having the economy be in good shape thru next fall. After all, his actual accomplishments otherwise (beyond constantly giving voice to his supporters fears) are essentially . . . nothing. (Well Putin and Kim may disagree. But getting them to successfully swing the election to him will be a challenge. Especially as Iran may be working in the other direction.)
It is increasingly clear that he knows it. And knows that the prospects are fading. He can’t, of course, admit that his policies, especially his trade policies, are to blame. Nor can he admit that the chaos and uncertainty that he revels in lead to the kind of uncertainty that causes businesses to stop investing until the future is clearer. So he’s spewing demands and putting up scapegoats, in the apparent hope that this will be enough.
The latest flurry: demanding that the Fed drop interest rates. Not just lower them, but drop them to zero. Or even go negative! https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/09/11/trump-says-boneheads-fed-should-cut-interest-rates-zero-or-even-set-negative-rates/ This at a time when unemployment is as close to zero as it gets. He combines this with denouncing the Fed governors (3 out of 5 of whom are his appointees!) as “boneheads” -- which seems likely to be counterproductive. It looks, basically, like a panic attack. But perhaps not an unwarranted one.
Just another straw in the wind….
Anyone who is into the conversation about water rights here needs to read Paolo Bacigalupi's science fiction stories. Both The Water Knife and "The Tamarisk Hunter" are premised on the sort of governmental breakdown that comes from these western water rights in the face of long-term anthropogenic drought.
https://windupstories.com/books/pump-six-and-other-stories/the-tamarisk-hunter/
I teach "The Tamarisk Hunter" in my SF class.
Also, I read The Water Knife while driving from CA to CO to visit family. 100 degrees out and utterly chilling.
Posted by: Nous | September 14, 2019 at 02:02 PM
pretty certain that it will continue going downhill until November 2020.
Your faith that Trump won't manage one (or more) final disaster between then and Inauguration Day is touching. Me, I wouldn't bet a plug nickel on it. More likely, if he loses he will be lashing out in panic in all directions.
Posted by: wj | September 14, 2019 at 02:06 PM
GftNC: I confess that I do not understand what seems to be a taboo on speculating about people's motives, ...
What I find unethical is psychiatrists and psychologists using the weight of their professions to speculate about anyone's state of mind or motivations.
Posted by: CharlesWT | September 14, 2019 at 02:08 PM
will people who have private insurance be happy to pay taxes for a public option they don’t use?
How enthused do you think they will be to pay even higher taxes to support Medicare for all? Or are you under the delusion that, when private (company-paid) health insurance goes away, all those companies will just give all their employees a raise with the freed-up funds? I'd think a dividend increase far more likely. See the response to the Trump corporate tax cut.
Posted by: wj | September 14, 2019 at 02:12 PM
Your faith that Trump won't manage one (or more) final disaster between then and Inauguration Day is touching.
Don't worry. I have no such faith.
Posted by: sapient | September 14, 2019 at 02:26 PM
Or are you under the delusion that, when private (company-paid) health insurance goes away, all those companies will just give all their employees a raise with the freed-up funds?
If forced to bet, I'd bet on those companies getting hit with a health insurance tax somewhat smaller than what they're spending on health insurance premiums today. Every detailed state-level single-payer plan proposal I've seen that has gone into funding details has had one. The selling "feature" will be a promise that with M4A, costs are really going to be contained and the tax rate will be stable compared to premium growth rates.
Posted by: Michael Cain | September 14, 2019 at 02:32 PM
My take there is that
1) Trump will insist that he lost due to vote fraud. No matter how overwhelming the loss.
2) His cultists (as opposed to those who are merely his devoted fans) will believe him. The more overwhelming the loss, the fewer others will.
3) Trump will file lawsuits everywhere he lost (yeah even places like California, because . . . why not, it's what he does). At minimum demanding that official counts be delayed pending.
4) Enough courts will decline that enough votes will be official that the Electoral College is not in doubt. All those will get appealed, of course. But, in the last analysis, John Roberts (and quite possibly Samuel Alito) will refuse to buy that bridge.
5) Trump refuses to accept that either, of course. (See his rants about the Fed governors that he appointed.)
6) But come Inauguration Day, the Chief Justice shows up holding the Bible (or whatever; although at that point I suspect the winner will be bending over backwards to be as traditional as pissible) and swears in the new President.
7) The military holds to their oaths to the Constitution, and ignore Trump thenceforth. Including the guy with the football leaving for the side of the new President.
8) The Secret Service clears the White House for the new President. Using as much force as necessary.
Beyond that? I'm put in mind of Heinlein's description of the rump of The Prophet's followers in Coventry. But actually, I expect we see nothing more that a spate of domestic terrorist attacks, ending with our ranks purged of some of our worst nutcases.
Posted by: wj | September 14, 2019 at 02:47 PM
I didn’t bring up Yemen btw. I’d rather hear from MkT on GCC.
Starting on that now. Give me a couple of hours.
Posted by: McKinneyTexas | September 14, 2019 at 02:47 PM
That was a response to sapient, btw. And I suppose I should have prefaced it with
0) Trump loses. Which looks increasingly likely. Even if the Democrats got with their worse choice out of the top half dozen.
Posted by: wj | September 14, 2019 at 02:53 PM
Which looks increasingly likely.
remember, nothing matters but the actual 50 state results.
don't start counting eggs.
Posted by: cleek | September 14, 2019 at 04:30 PM
Thanks, wj. And I agree with cleek - by no means should we assume anything.
Posted by: sapient | September 14, 2019 at 05:15 PM
“Or are you under the delusion that, when private (company-paid) health insurance goes away, all those companies will just give all their employees a raise with the freed-up funds?”
Michael Cain knows more than me— see his response. I would add that it would be a nice idea if we had a stronger labor movement, because no, I don’t believe the invisible hand will necessarily force companies to give in salary increases what they save not having to pay in insurance premiums.
Posted by: Donald | September 14, 2019 at 05:38 PM
I suspect the degree of change necessary if we want to keep private insurance and be certain that nobody goes bankrupt from a serious illness would be immense.
I'm not convinced of this. In principle it seems wholly possible to have private insurance with a government reinsurance backstop for ruinous cases.
Posted by: byomtov | September 14, 2019 at 07:00 PM
“In principle it seems wholly possible to have private insurance with a government reinsurance backstop for ruinous cases.”
Possibly so. And if so, there is no good reason I can think of why this couldn’t have been done decades ago. So there must be some bad reasons.
Posted by: Donald | September 14, 2019 at 08:39 PM
And I agree with cleek - by no means should we assume anything.
Absolutely agree. But in my mind I wasn't assuming, but predicting. Not quite the same thing.
I think the best thing to do, at this point, is to assume it will be damn close (even though I don't think it will be). And work hard everywhere that there is even an outside chance (i.e. Texas, but not Wyoming) -- in order to, at minimum, make Trump spend resources to defend them.
At the same, I think it's critical to remember all those picky little state legislative races. Beating Trump is super important. But we will be living with the results of those legislative races for a decade, thanks to redistricting. This is the moment to try to ride a blue wave into a bunch of otherwise successfully gerrymandered seats.
Posted by: wj | September 14, 2019 at 09:07 PM
there is no good reason I can think of why this couldn’t have been done decades ago. So there must be some bad reasons.
Simple. It's "socialized medicine". The label, not the reality.
Posted by: wj | September 14, 2019 at 09:10 PM
This is the moment to try to ride a blue wave into a bunch of otherwise successfully gerrymandered seats.
We're on the same page, again, wj.
Posted by: sapient | September 14, 2019 at 09:18 PM
You begin to see why this conservative has gotten on so successfully with liberals all these years. ;-)
Posted by: wj | September 14, 2019 at 10:13 PM
are you under the delusion that, when private (company-paid) health insurance goes away, all those companies will just give all their employees a raise with the freed-up funds? I'd think a dividend increase far more likely. See the response to the Trump corporate tax cut.
I think this depends on the company, and especially the industry. I happen to be on the board if a small software company, and finding well-qualified employees is a constant issue, so yes, I would expect to start paying higher salaries if we didn't have to pay for health insurance.
Of course, there is also the issue that the single-payer plan has to be financed somehow, so it's likely that taxes will go up, which will also have an effect.
The distinction between this and the Trump tax cut is that the latter didn't actually reduce the compensation companies pay to workers.
Posted by: byomtov | September 15, 2019 at 08:31 AM
Here is also a German translation of the Jabba-Bonk
Schwafelbumsy
Um Tuckzwitsch schleimstrunz Kloppmentars
Kötpfiffen/Tölpfufften reineksch im Blondiestall
Ginmies warn Inceloffs in Bars
Und Afden schäumengroll
Hab Acht vorm Schwafelbums, Dirn lütt
Dem Schmatzerschlund und Muschigrapsch
Halt fern dich von dem Moos-Kuh-Mück
Scheu Leinsam-Graham-Flatsch
AOC Teigens Tweet schlägt an
Behufs Entblähung des orangen Schrats
Wider Aufdunsfeind kühnen Hauf vereint
Sie warten im Rondell des Staats
Und während weibsstolz man dort stand
Der Schwafelbums, Schmähgosch entloht,
Cofvevte her durchs Hohlkopfland
Und schamlos streichernd droht
Oh Nein! Sechs-Neun! Geselchtes Schwein
Friß Teigens Tweet arg und viral
Das geht glatt rein mit Text unfein
Die Wirkmacht ist fatal
Dem Schwafelbums bogt ihr es bei?
Umhalst der Mädel wackren Bann
Jauchztag! Juchei! Tandaradei!
Der Petz steppt wie er kann
Um Tuckzwitsch schleimstrunz Kloppmentars
Kötpfiffen/Tölpfufften reineksch im Blondiestall
Ginmies warn Inceloffs in Bars
Und Afden schäumengroll
Posted by: Hartmut | September 16, 2019 at 04:29 AM
there is no good reason I can think of why this couldn’t have been done decades ago. So there must be some bad reasons.
You have to understand what we are up against.
Posted by: bobbyp | September 16, 2019 at 08:54 AM
The core flaw in the libertatian argument is that their idealized Free Market assumes perfect information on both sides. Because otherwise how can you know what you are getting?
Are you an expert who can test the purity of the drugs you are buying? (How does that work out in the notoriously unregulated illegal drugs market?) An expert who can test the purity of the gold (or whatever) that you are being paid with?
In reality, of course, this is what would (will) happen if the Kocks and the Mercers and their friends succeed: they will, briefly, get richer -- whatever that means to them. And then they will discover that all those guns their philosophy has insisted on having available are a whole different animal from pitchforks. Which is to say, they will quickly get dead as well.
Guns. The difference between feudalism past and their longed-for feudalism future. For defending against them, rather than against the government.
Posted by: wj | September 16, 2019 at 11:19 AM
The proposition that people screwing each other over with impunity is somehow best for everyone involved is just idiotic. How anyone swallows this crap is beyond me.
Posted by: hairshirthedonist | September 16, 2019 at 12:02 PM
I had somehow missed this election report out of Russia.
https://beta.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/11/vladimir-putins-party-just-lost-an-election-even-after-blocking-opponents-ballot/
Why care about the results of a rigged election, you ask. Well when someone manages to lose a rigged election, it says something.
In this case (the Moscow city elections) Putin's boys kicked the opposition politicians off the ballot. And, for good measure, locked them up. And yet, thanks to tactical voting for "anybody else", lots of Putin stalwarts lost. Including the head of his Moscow party organization -- even though he ran as an independent to try to avoid a toxic brand!
The thesis that Putin really is popular in Russia is beginning to look a bit threadbare.
Posted by: wj | September 16, 2019 at 12:12 PM
no no, you see when Bob screws over Alice, Eve will know about this and then refuse to do business with Bob. extrapolate to everybody at all times in all circumstances, and The Market is perfect.
the reason people don't already do that is probably due to government interference or something.
Posted by: cleek | September 16, 2019 at 12:17 PM
no no, you see when Bob screws over Alice, Eve will know about this and then refuse to do business with Bob. extrapolate to everybody at all times in all circumstances, and The Market is perfect.
How convenient that we have at hand a test case for this theory. Just replace "Bob" with "Donald"....
Somehow Trump managed to keep finding contractors who would take jobs from him. Even though dozens had already had the experience of getting stiffed by him. And that was just in the tight little market that was NYC construction. Expand to nationwide, and the absurdity is manifest.
I do like your "it's the government's fault somehow" theory, however. Now all we need is a supposed mechanism. No doubt folks who fund climate change denialism can find someone to do that.
Posted by: wj | September 16, 2019 at 01:25 PM
someday, The Market will have legal personhood and mocking it will be a hate crime.
Posted by: cleek | September 16, 2019 at 01:38 PM
Everything must be viewed as a commodity. Doctors or bags of rice - all the same.
Posted by: hairshirthedonist | September 16, 2019 at 02:06 PM
Just noting what the leftists at the AEI and Reason have to say about tariffs. Take note, regular folks in diners.
http://www.aei.org/publication/tariffs-are-a-regressive-tax-that-impose-the-greatest-burden-on-low-income-americans/
https://reason.com/2018/12/06/trumps-tariffs-42-million-tax-increase/
Posted by: hairshirthedonist | September 17, 2019 at 09:48 AM
Priorities of people in diners, where Fox News and Limbaugh are on 24/7:
1. Hating liberals
2. Trump
3. everything else
Posted by: cleek | September 17, 2019 at 10:16 AM
The EPA says they will make the rule rescinding California's authority to set its own tougher auto emissions standards final tomorrow.
Predictions... The day after, California files suit in the DC Circuit Court and requests an immediate injunction stopping the rule. The grounds for the case will be that California's authority is statutory (Clean Air Act of 1970) and the EPA lacks any authority to override statute. The Supremes hear the case in about 12 months.
Posted by: Michael Cain | September 17, 2019 at 05:03 PM
Looks like the California case will be based on us already having the necessary waiver (specified in the Clean Air Act, and granted in the previous administration). And the EPA lacking the authority to revoke the waiver once granted.
Posted by: wj | September 17, 2019 at 05:33 PM
Yeah, I went back and read the statute. It's a waiver (I was wrong about that), but one the EPA must grant unless they can show California's regulation has done one of a short list of bad things (eg, the usual "arbitrary and capricious", and some others). That's the kind of i-dotting and t-crossing this administration has been very bad at so far. Now I'm more eager to see what the EPA publishes tomorrow.
Posted by: Michael Cain | September 17, 2019 at 06:20 PM
I suppose that, if you consider objective reality irrelevant, you can argue that pretty much anything is "arbitrary and capricious." Not that a court is likely to buy it.
Posted by: wj | September 17, 2019 at 06:29 PM
I guess I should forecast the Supremes: 6-3 in favor of California. The four liberals, Roberts, and Gorsuch the majority.
Posted by: Michael Cain | September 17, 2019 at 09:12 PM
It's even possible that Alito's fondness for states rights will being him to side with California.
Kavanaugh, of course, will follow his patron, without reference to the merits of the case. Lucky for him it's one of the rare issues where Trump probably won't change his mind a half dozen times a week.
Posted by: wj | September 17, 2019 at 10:33 PM
being => bring.
Posted by: wj | September 17, 2019 at 11:27 PM
Why does CA even need a waiver to have regulations that are stronger than, and therefore more than meet, federal regs?
There have to be hundreds or thousands of such cases. Are they all going to be challenged by the feds?
Posted by: russell | September 18, 2019 at 08:12 AM
You never can tell what nonsense the Supremely Deplorable Five ("lawless" Roberts, StripSearch, Token, Kav, and Squi) will line up behind.
Posted by: Snarki, child of Loki | September 18, 2019 at 09:47 AM
Preemption doctrine. If the federal government chooses to regulate a certain activity, states are barred from regulating that same activity unless Congress gives explicit permission. (I'll leave it to the real lawyers to worry about whether the states can regulate so long as they don't conflict with the federal rules, or if they have to stay away from the activity entirely.) The 1970 Clean Air Act provided explicit conditional permission for California to set its own vehicle emission limits and for other states to choose between the California limits and the federal limits.
The feds don't have to challenge the laws themselves. When a state tries to enforce those laws, the defendants will raise the preemption question. Most cases will be clear-cut, ie, the state rule obviously conflicts with a federal rule so is unenforceable.
In the auto emission case, where Congressional permission has been given, the EPA should have to show where California's rules fail to meet the conditions laid out in the CAA. Or to wj's interesting point, whether the EPA has authority to revoke a previously granted waiver.
Posted by: Michael Cain | September 18, 2019 at 10:12 AM
You never can tell what nonsense the Supremely Deplorable Five ("lawless" Roberts, StripSearch, Token, Kav, and Squi) will line up behind.
True, but hardly an interesting prediction. Roberts will side with California because he acts in what he perceives as large corporations' long-term interests. Gorsuch because he's from a western state with its own air pollution problems and wants to be able to walk in the streets without people spitting at him. wj raises an interesting point about Alito, who may side with California on the principle of moving authority from the feds to the states. Thomas will write a rant that Massachusetts v. EPA was wrongly decided.
Posted by: Michael Cain | September 18, 2019 at 10:27 AM
If the federal government chooses to regulate a certain activity, states are barred from regulating that same activity unless Congress gives explicit permission.
So... the feds require some level of background check to buy a firearm. In MA, you have to have the background check, plus take a firearm safety course, plus provide personal references, and then the local cops can deny the license anyway if they think you are a knucklehead who shouldn't be running around with a firearm.
All of which I find reasonable, FWIW.
Can somebody who wants a firearm license challenge that based on pre-emption?
Posted by: russell | September 18, 2019 at 11:14 AM
interesting question.
here's The Giffords Law Center on the issue:
Posted by: cleek | September 18, 2019 at 11:40 AM
Can somebody who wants a firearm license challenge that based on pre-emption?
No, federal gun control statutes contain an explicit "out" that allows states to add their own regulations, so long as they don't directly conflict with federal regulations. And the federal regulations are of a form that allows states to be more strict (until they run into 2nd Amendment issues, of course). That is, the federal requirement is "If you don't pass the check you can't buy a gun" rather than "Anyone who passes the check can buy a gun."
Posted by: Michael Cain | September 18, 2019 at 11:40 AM
My bad, it's not in the gun statutes themselves, it's in another place and more general. The form of the regulation that I mentioned is key, as the state can add regulations that don't conflict with the federal one.
Posted by: Michael Cain | September 18, 2019 at 11:46 AM
As an aside on preemption, one of the things that keep state legislative staff busy is bills whose sole purpose is to remove conflicts in the state law with federal regulations when the feds change a rule. Sometimes those are broad changes; sometimes they're seemingly tiny. I spent a week futzing with language in a budget bill to make all of the federal Dept of Labor (who had tweaked a rule regarding how certain moneys sent to the states could be spent), the state Dept of Labor (who wanted the maximum funding flexibility they could get under the modified rule), and the legislative legal staff (who wanted the language to be bullet-proof in court) happy. Then got to sit in front of the Joint Budget Committee and explain why the changes had been made in a specific way. I was never so glad to hear one of the committee members say, "Move the committee accept staff's recommendation" and get a majority vote.
Posted by: Michael Cain | September 18, 2019 at 12:05 PM
The 1970 Clean Air Act provided explicit conditional permission for California to set its own vehicle emission limits and for other states to choose between the California limits and the federal limits.
For which you can thank then-Governor Reagan and the fact that President Nixon was a Californian as well. (Both were all too familiar with LA smog.) Damn big-government Republicans!
Posted by: wj | September 18, 2019 at 12:31 PM
Both Nixon and Reagan are "good Republicans".
That is, DEAD.
Posted by: Snarki, child of Loki | September 18, 2019 at 12:44 PM
This one, however, is still alive.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-cant-erase-a-decade-of-clean-air-progress-with-a-sharpie/2019/09/08/8d6393de-d248-11e9-86ac-0f250cc91758_story.html
(So am *I*, for that matter.)
Posted by: wj | September 18, 2019 at 12:51 PM
Cough if you love Trump
Posted by: cleek | September 18, 2019 at 01:08 PM
Trump got his demand! a rate cut!
$10 says he knew it was coming and made noise to make it look like it was all his idea.
Posted by: cleek | September 18, 2019 at 03:30 PM
Sorry, cleek. You're not winning any sucker bets today.
Posted by: wj | September 18, 2019 at 04:32 PM
I know that some folks here think it's hugely inappropriate to bring it up, but, I think there's a problem with Trump's relationship with some other foreign leaders.
No reason to worry about Russian trolls and bots. No reason at all.
Posted by: sapient | September 18, 2019 at 09:28 PM
New Opeth album out at the end of the month:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcMdA7Xs8jE
I'm liking what I have heard so far. Out in both Swedish and English language versions. Jag tycker om den svensk versionen.
Posted by: Nous | September 18, 2019 at 09:49 PM
I think it's more accurate to say that there are problems with Trump's relationships with ALL foreign leaders. Different problems, depending on which foreign leader. But the only foreign leaders who have any use for him are those who think they have a use for him . . . and think they can cozen him into it.
Posted by: wj | September 18, 2019 at 10:19 PM
“I know that some folks here think it's hugely inappropriate to bring it up, but, I think there's a problem with Trump's relationship with some other foreign leaders.”
He’s been way too close to bonesaw and Bibi. We might end up in a war with Iran because of it.
Posted by: Donald | September 18, 2019 at 10:28 PM
Plus there’s that whole complicity in genocide in Yemen thing.
So yeah, problems.
Posted by: Donald | September 18, 2019 at 10:29 PM
Bolton is pissed that Trump wouldn't let him play with the military toys.
"Politico reports that Bolton, during a private lunch on Wednesday hosted by a neoconservative think tank, openly stewed about his inability to convince Trump to bomb Iran. In particular, Bolton claimed the United States should have attacked Iran in June, after the Islamic Republic was blamed for shooting down a U.S. drone.
'During Wednesday's luncheon, Bolton said the planned response had gone through the full process and everybody in the White House had agreed on the retaliatory strike,' Politico's Daniel Lippman writes. 'But 'a high authority, at the very last minute,' without telling anyone, decided not to do it, Bolton complained.'"
John Bolton Is Mad That Trump Wouldn't Let Him Bomb Iran: Trump's recently fired national security adviser fumed about the president's unwillingness to launch another half-cocked war and says U.S. should stay in Afghanistan basically forever.
Posted by: CharlesWT | September 18, 2019 at 11:34 PM
On balance, I'd rather that the National Security Advisor was just another vacuous syncophant. Better that than he be a chickenhawk like Bolton. So, a step in a better (although I can't justify calling it "the right") direction.
Posted by: wj | September 19, 2019 at 12:44 AM
He’s been way too close to bonesaw and Bibi. We might end up in a war with Iran because of it.
"Let's you and him fight".
Posted by: russell | September 19, 2019 at 05:50 AM
New Opeth album out at the end of the month:
i've had it pre-ordered for weeks!
Posted by: cleek | September 19, 2019 at 07:13 AM
there's a problem with Trump's relationship with some other foreign leaders.
wouldn't it be swell if that whistleblower was Bolton? like, he is so mad that Trump wouldn't bomb bomb bomb bombbomb Iran that Bolton decided to rat him out over something...
Posted by: cleek | September 19, 2019 at 07:16 AM
Scroll down the the bottom of this link:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-win-an-election/
That is (approximately) Trump’s platform. And yet he got nearly as many votes as Clinton....
Posted by: Nigel | September 19, 2019 at 08:53 AM
I know that some folks here think it's hugely inappropriate to bring it up, but, I think there's a problem with Trump's relationship with some other foreign leaders.
No reason to worry about Russian trolls and bots. No reason at all.
If you can cite an example of someone suggesting that it's "hugely inappropriate to bring up Trump's relationship with some other foreign leaders," have at it.
If you can't, and what you're actually doing is conflating an objection to that topic with an objection to accusations that a longtime commenter is a Russian troll and bot (as here), then at the very least, your logic is a little faulty.
From the link:
My guess is that nombrilisme vide was one of them. We need to ask questions, and reject them.
I actually had a conversation with nv (when I was open-minded about the bot)
NV comments often read like a badly translated Russian novel.
Posted by: JanieM | September 19, 2019 at 12:45 PM
i've had it pre-ordered for weeks!
Swedish or English or both?
I'm wondering which language Mikael will choose to sing in on tour. I'm hoping he sticks to his guns and sings in Swedish. It is, after all, the secret occult language of the Social Democrat. \m/
Posted by: Nous | September 19, 2019 at 01:45 PM
just English. my Swedish begins and ends with "bork bork bork"
Posted by: cleek | September 19, 2019 at 02:00 PM
Everything I know about Sweden comes from this:
And all knowledge of Australia from Mad Max movies. I hear Austria and Australia are different countries.
Posted by: hairshirthedonist | September 19, 2019 at 02:27 PM
And if I remember correctly your knowledge about Yorkshire (the moors) may all have come from An American Werewolf in London.
Coincidentally, if I've never mentioned it before, the Warren Zevon song Werewolves of London lays out, to an eerily accurate extent, a complete itinerary of exactly the places my friends and I used to hang out at in London in the 70s...
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | September 19, 2019 at 03:05 PM
Good memory! That's really cool, the Zevon thing.
Posted by: hairshirthedonist | September 19, 2019 at 04:21 PM
I know, cracks me up every time I hear it.
I also do the werewolf howls with great enthusiasm, much to the astonishment of people in other cars if I'm held up in traffic!
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | September 19, 2019 at 04:37 PM
"When life hands you a lemon, make lemonade!"
It seems that Trump has found a good use for the EPA: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/09/19/they-have-clean-it-up-trump-threatens-san-francisco-with-environmental-violations-over-homelessness/
Homelessness as pollution. Gotta admit, it's inventive. Wonder who in his administration came up with the idea.
Posted by: wj | September 19, 2019 at 04:42 PM
Usually homelessness is referred to as an infestation (as with rats, roaches and the like). Or as blight/disfigurement of the scenery. But the proposed solution tends to be same anyway.
Posted by: Hartmut | September 19, 2019 at 04:50 PM
I discover this:
Naturally something that causes pollution would make the exception list. (/cynicism)Posted by: wj | September 20, 2019 at 08:52 PM
OMG, our Supremes! Parliament sits again tomorrow from 11.30!
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | September 24, 2019 at 07:33 AM
IMO the UK is a stronger democracy, with stronger traditions of individual rights, than the US.
Start with - the number of people represented by an MP, compared to the number represented by a US House rep. Follow up with - the range of political positions, traditions, and interests represented therein.
I discount the royals in all of this. As far as I can tell, they are just a sort of expensive historical petting zoo, King/Queen being the exception. And the King/Queen seem to earn their keep by being more or less a chaperone keeping a lid on the more partisan infighting.
That's how it looks from here. Fight me.
Posted by: russell | September 24, 2019 at 09:22 AM
I discount the royals in all of this. As far as I can tell, they are just a sort of expensive historical petting zoo
But they're why the Brits aren't afflicted with the Kardashians. (Higher quality human beings, too, for all their foibles. As far as I can tell.)
Posted by: wj | September 24, 2019 at 10:37 AM
@russell: agree about the representation; it's been on my mind for a long time.
Based on #s quickly plucked from Wikipedia, in 1790 a member of Congress represented 37,421 people. Now it's 20 times that many, at 742,870. Even if you count senators, the # is 604,016.
An MP stands for about 101,538, somewhere in between but much closer to our early numbers than our present numbers.
It's unwieldy. I sometimes find myself thinking that the country is just too damned big, but human nature being what it is, I'm pretty sure the fault lines would survive a break-up, and fractally propagate themselves in the fragments.
Posted by: JanieM | September 24, 2019 at 10:46 AM
As a first step, we could take the population of the smallest (population-wise) state, and make half that the number for 1 Representative. Works out to around 300,000 people. We'd have to rebuild the Capital to accomodate the increased headcount, but it would be worth it.
Posted by: wj | September 24, 2019 at 10:57 AM
GftNC, I notice that your Supremes were unanimous. Was it that blatant on Johnson's part? Or are you just behind us when it comes to ideological court packing?
Posted by: wj | September 24, 2019 at 11:02 AM
Certainly less (purposely) ideologically packed, although still immensely privilege-of-many-strands-wise unrepresentative (hence an old cartoon I loved: Prisoner before the bench: Mercy your honour, I'm a product of my environment! Judge: So am I, hang him!)
But it is certainly my impression (and not just mine, as I have mentioned before) that many of the US Supremes have no scruples about making purely party-political ideological decisions, whereas I think our Supremes still see that as a) bad for the rule of law, and anyway b) completely dishonourable and contrary to their oaths.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | September 24, 2019 at 11:29 AM
And the King/Queen seem to earn their keep by being more or less a chaperone keeping a lid on the more partisan infighting.
...
Higher quality human beings, too, for all their foibles. As far as I can tell.
Hard to say how accurate the first is but so far, even if true, this has been good enough.
As regards the second quote, I think this is very true, certainly regarding the current monarch, who is by common consent fairly intelligent, enormously experienced and absolutely devoted to doing what she considers her duty, which is serving the interests of the UK despite the fact that (as in the case of her father) people who know her say she would almost certainly have been much happier being a conventional upper class countrywoman, devoted to her horses and dogs.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | September 24, 2019 at 11:53 AM
her duty, which is serving the interests of the UK
Oh, and I should have said also serving the interests of the Commonwealth, which she apparently takes extremely seriously.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | September 24, 2019 at 12:29 PM
Having a chief of state who cares about the country is a great fail-safe. Especially when you have a head of government who cares nothing but himself. Too bad we combine the two positions, so we don't have that additional check.
Posted by: wj | September 24, 2019 at 01:29 PM
Boom.
Posted by: cleek | September 24, 2019 at 03:57 PM
Here is the Supreme Court judgment in full:
https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2019-0192-judgment.pdf
It is a model of conciseness and clarity, to the extent that even I can easily read and understand it. And compellingly argued from first principles.
The key bit is this:
For the purposes of the present case, therefore, the relevant limit upon the power to prorogue can be expressed in this way: that a decision to prorogue Parliament (or to advise the monarch to prorogue Parliament) will be unlawful if the prorogation has the effect of frustrating or preventing, without reasonable justification, the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions as a legislature and as the body responsible for the supervision of the executive. In such a situation, the court will intervene if the effect is sufficiently serious to justify such an exceptional course.
Admirable.
Posted by: Nigel | September 24, 2019 at 04:13 PM
The monarch herself is no real failsafe, since they will act invariably on the advice of ministers, as in this case.
The real benefit of a constitutional monarchy is that we have a head of state almost entirely outside the political process other than as a rubber stamp, and as an observer.
Posted by: Nigel | September 24, 2019 at 04:17 PM
This judgment quite readily demonstrates the relation between government and monarch, as it rules the ‘advice’ given to the monarch as outside of the government’s power to exercise the prerogative, and so null and void - and therefore as a result of that the prorogation fails.
It’s not that the queen was fooled into making a mistake - rather that since she was from the point of view of the law given no advice with legal force, she was unable to take any action to prorogue.
Posted by: Nigel | September 24, 2019 at 04:43 PM
Hang on, weren’t there supposed to be several phone calls ?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-confirms-he-withheld-military-aid-from-ukraine-says-he-wants-other-countries-to-help-pay/2019/09/24/42bdf66c-ded2-11e9-8dc8-498eabc129a0_story.html
Posted by: Nigel | September 24, 2019 at 06:00 PM
Hang on, weren’t there supposed to be several phone calls ?
and somewhere out there is the actual whistleblower complaint, which we still don't know much about.
methinks maybe the Dems got themselves overly attached to the "show us the phone call" thing and Trump might be trying to pull a fast one.
Posted by: cleek | September 24, 2019 at 06:05 PM
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to announce a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump, ...
Bring it on.
Posted by: Donald Trump | September 24, 2019 at 06:14 PM
it's on, fucko.
https://www.apnews.com/e0d125d737be4a21a81bec3d9f1dffd8
Posted by: cleek | September 24, 2019 at 06:48 PM
The stars, are they aligned?
I hope so!
Posted by: sapient | September 24, 2019 at 07:15 PM
In case you missed it, the Senate passed unanimously a call for the whistleblower complain to be released.
https://www.theweek.com/speedreads/867423/senate-votes-1000-release-trump-whistleblower-complaint
When McConnell stops stonewalling for Trump, Trump is in serious trouble. So yeah, stars look to be aligning.
Posted by: wj | September 24, 2019 at 08:11 PM
When McConnell stops stonewalling for Trump, Trump is in serious trouble.
It's a non-binding resolution, so who cares? Not McConnell, I bet.
I can't believe he doesn't have seven layers of agendas that he's manipulating.
Posted by: JanieM | September 24, 2019 at 09:06 PM
I can't believe he doesn't have seven layers of agendas that he's manipulating.
Most plausible theory I've heard: what's in there is sufficiently damning that McConnell is starting his prep for a Pence presidency.
Posted by: wj | September 24, 2019 at 09:15 PM
Random thoughts:
Three cheers for the SCOTUK!
It has always seemed likely that He, Trump would get re-"elected" with the Dems holding on to the House. Did Pelosi ever consider how much harder impeachment would be after 2020? I bet she did, and that the pants-wetting faction of the Dem caucus only just now thought about it.
The "transcript" of a single phone call would be like the script of Springtime for Hitler: a trap for the unwary, with the Democrats playing the role of Bialystock and Blum. Live public testimony from the whistleblower or bust!
Come to think of it, toy whistles would be a great gimmick for Democrats to heckle Republicans with. (Remember Kerry being taunted with giant foam flip-flops and purple-heart band-aids by Dubya worshipers?) Toy whistles all being Chinese imports, look for extra-high tariffs on them if my suggestion goes viral.
Moscow Mitch is still a snake.
--TP
Posted by: Tony P. | September 24, 2019 at 09:37 PM
Daily dose of schadenfreude - counting the seconds until Rudy gets thrown under the bus.
It would be funny if it wasn't so not-funny.
Posted by: russell | September 25, 2019 at 07:41 AM
"counting the seconds until Rudy gets thrown under the bus."
Needz moar actual "bus".
Posted by: Snarki, child of Loki | September 25, 2019 at 08:48 AM
OMG, the transcript: https://www.vox.com/2019/9/25/20883325/transcript-trump-ukraine-president-impeachment
nearly all Trump talks about is conspiracy theories about Biden and Clinton and Mueller.
all this time i kinda thought all that stuff was mostly him playing for the base. but no, even when talking on a call that would normally never be revealed to the public, it's all he talks about. the guy is truly deranged.
Posted by: cleek | September 25, 2019 at 10:18 AM
It would be funny if it wasn't so not-funny.
A perfect description for our times.
Posted by: Girl from the North Country | September 25, 2019 at 11:25 AM