by wj
I notice that we’ve got politics sneaking into the TWA thread, so clearly we need a new open thread. Here goes.
I’ve seen a variety of discussions about a possible impeachment next year. The general argument seems to start with the assumption that the Democrats take the House, so they can hold hearings, dig out facts that have been covered up, and generally build a case. But, the argument goes, is it worthwhile actually bringing impeachment to the floor, even if it can be passed? After all, the Senate is not going to be 2/3 Democrats, even if they manage to squeeze out a majority. So why bother going thru the motions?
Implicit in this is the assumption that no (or certainly not more than a couple of) Republican Senators are going to vote to remove. Which, in today’s hyper-partisan environment, isn’t a totally unreasonable position. But is it true?
Let's think about this. Imagine yourself a Republican Senator, especially one just (re)elected this year. You won’t face the voters again for 6 years – which is an eternity. By then, if someone is going to primary you, they will have more recent issues to use; Trump, if he is gone, will be like a three years’ ago Super Bowl: even if there was a horrible call, it’s no longer a big motivator in conversations. And he's doing stuff that hurts/irritates lots of your constituents.
So if you’re a Republican Senator, why not get rid of Trump? That gets rid of a big motivator for Democratic voters getting out to the polls in 2020. A President Pence will be at least as reliable in doing things that you want done. Probably a lot more reliable. While not doing things, e.g. starting trade wars, that you definitely don’t want done. And he might even replace some of the more blatantly corrupt officials that Trump has appointed, which would remove another Democratic talking point going forward. I mean, it’s not like the result of a removal would be a Democrat in the Oval Office.
Of course, a lot depends on what all those hearings turn up. But my guess is, there will be lots of grist for the mill, some of it pretty enormous. So I wouldn’t assume too much about what might happen. Think about it.
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