Hurricane? We don't need no stinkin' .... OT

by Ugh

This whole Florence thing has the 9YO freaked out.  Living just outside DC on the MD side makes me think he might be overly worried but that's his mojo.

In other news, I can't really say Serena was robbed (if anyone it was Osaka who was clearly outplaying the legend up to that point and had her celebration spoiled), but that ump has got to go.  I mean, WTF?

Is it just me or is Kavanaugh "at first glance likable but is really just a prick" whereas Gorsuch is just prick through and through?  Not that it matters.  

Open thread for your U.S. of We're So Screwed A.  

Meh. 

UPDATE:  Everyone is required to read this Adam Serwer piece.  Srsly

Comments

[cleek]

i'm a little freaked out.

we're far enough off the coast that he wind shouldn't be more than 50mph or so (!). our friends in Wilmington, tho.

but we'll still get all the rain - "historic" levels of rain, according to the map our local police dept put on their FB feed this AM.

[Ugh]

Yeah I feel for ya' "feet" of rain is no joke

[wj]

The Economist's daily Espresso e-mail reports:

Plastic despoiling the oceans seems irretrievable. Not to The Ocean Cleanup, a Dutch charity backed by crowdfunders, deep-pocketed endowments and tech tycoons like Peter Thiel. It has designed a system to trawl for polymers in the vast mid-ocean gyres where flotsam gathers. The 600-metre boom, with a three-metre dangling skirt that fish can swim under, is propelled by wind and waves, as well as the current. Because plastic detritus is driven by the current alone, the boom scoops it up. Having set off from San Francisco on Saturday, the boom should arrive this week at a test site off the coast before embarking on a three-week voyage to the Alaska-sized Great Pacific Garbage Patch, as the largest of the gyres is known. Once fully deployed in 2020, 60 such contraptions, costing €5m ($6m) apiece, could sweep up around 40,000 tonnes of plastic, around half of the total, within five years, its designers reckon.

Not everything is political. Basically positive reports include this
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/ocean-cleanup-launches-to-take-on-the-great-pacific-garbage-patch.html
and this
https://www.breitbart.com/california/2018/09/10/2000-foot-long-ocean-cleanup-launches-to-trap-pacific-ocean-plastic/

[wj]

An excellent point from that Adam Serwer piece:
"Those who wish to see justice in their lifetime will have go to the polls and seize it."

Do it! (Not that the folks here need any urging, I suspect.)

[CharlesWT]

Ironically, Chicago, in McDonald v. Chicago, referenced United States v. Cruikshank in support of its gun control laws.

[Girl from the North Country]

Excellent if rather depressing read, Ugh.

Good luck to everyone in the path of the hurricane. Stay safe!

[Shirt]

Kavanaugh reminds of the Scorpio Killer(Andrew Robinson)in the first Dirty Harry Movie. I don't know why unless, perhaps, the term Punk has something to do with it.

I wished I had that Serwer information prior to being naturalized. However if everyone follows wj's recommendation it may yet become better.

[Girl from the North Country]

Just for a bit of light relief, this is an article about all the people Trump says start crying when they meet him, almost always one particular kind of person:

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/analysis/2018/09/08/according-to-donald-trump-a-lot-of-people-are-crying-around-donald-trump.html

Halfway through, my favourite sentence:

The crying characters in Trump’s stories tend to share three characteristics: they are male, they are “tough” or “strong,” and they do not have names.

[sapient]

cleek, stay safe. As I mentioned, I have people in your neck of the woods, so I'll be thinking about them and you, then the hurricane is headed our way. Of course, it won't be a hurricane by the time it gets here, but our ground is so saturated from so much rain already this year that it won't be good if the storm hangs around a la Harvey.

Yes, cleek, please stock up on supplies, or even evacuate. We'll be okay here in C'ville if that tree out yonder doesn't fall on our house.

[McKinneyTexas]

Run from the water, hide from the wind.

Seriously, if you have large trees in your yard, move out of their path if they get blown over. Ditto overhead power lines. Do you have 2-4 days of drinking water and canned food?

[McKinneyTexas]

By "move out of their path" I mean find a place in the house that won't cave in if they are blown over. Someplace that won't be hit by the falling trees. Shit, I hope this makes sense.

[russell]

OK, the Serwer piece was pretty grim.

But I do note that we no longer have a newspaper of record named "The Caucasian".

We have a nation founded on the concept of "liberty", but not common understanding of what that word means.

Stay safe, all you southern Atlantic coasters.

[cleek]

two cases of bottled water and we're filling three bathtubs Thursday night. we should be OK.

lots of beer in the garage.

one can of spam. but how much spam can you eat, anyway?

we have lots of frozen soup in the freezers, and a propane grill and a butane camp stove.

we'll be eating like kings, if the power goes out - scavenging everything out of the freezers.

our biggest concern is electricity - lose that, lose water and AC and contact with the world. water. and a landslide, because our house is on a hill. but it's been raining since May and we haven't slid off yet.

[cleek]

trees.... those are a big fear. we've had plenty cut down, but there are still a couple that i wish i would've have shelled out the cash to get cut down.

wind's going to be coming from the...? well, depends on the hour, i guess.

we'll see.

[McKinneyTexas]

The wind is circular. If landfall is south, go to the north side. If on the north, the opposite. As it moves west/ north, orient 180 opposite. Get a chainsaw with gas and oil if you can. With leather gloves and a good first aid kit. Good luck. Lay low.

[McKinneyTexas]

After Ike, we-the neighborhood- had to cut our way out to the nearest main thoroughfare. It takes teamwork to open up arteries so that you can get people to hospitals and whatnot.

[sapient]

Good advice, McKinney. Thank you.

[McKinneyTexas]

Be safe.

[cleek]

our neighborhood is exchanging emails about "who has chain saws? who has a generator?" some people are going to park cars out near the main road, in case trees fall on our little neighborhood road and block us in.

very exiting.

i just heard "thirty inches of rain" in some places. holy crap.

[Girl from the North Country]

Be sure to let us know you're OK cleek, when possible and appropriate. Also, anybody else affected. Again, good luck.

[Girl from the North Country]

Meanwhile, since this is an OT, someone sent me this Donald Trump tweet from 2013:

I would like to extend my best wishes to all, even the haters and losers, on this special date, September 11th.

Special date! Words are insufficient....

[russell]

it was nice of him to include us haters and losers, though.

[cleek]

at least he's grown up since then

[Michael Cain]

i just heard "thirty inches of rain" in some places. holy crap.

The European model has Florence stalling just off Wilmington and sitting there for three days or so, pumping in rain. Wilmington is right at the edge of the area labeled 45" accumulated precipitation by Monday on the map. The NWS seems to be trying to not be as pessimistic as the European model, which got both Sandy and Harvey almost exactly right.

[cleek]

the whole eastern third of NC is former sea bottom - low and flat. that water is going to sit there with nowhere to go.

expect a lot of pictures of flooded neighborhoods next week.

yuck.

[sapient]

Hope we hear from dr ngo.

[Girl from the North Country]

Again since this is an OT, for fascinating light relief:

Dolphins Seem to use Pufferfish to get High

[wj]

The European model has Florence stalling just off Wilmington and sitting there for three days or so, pumping in rain.

Well, it's not 40 days and 40 nights. But for those waiting in great anticipation for the apocalypse, it's a start.

[wj]

I would like to extend my best wishes to all, even the haters and losers, on this special date, September 11th.

Most days, he seems to be struggling to decide between low class and no class. But then something like this happens, and he shows where his heart is: no class at all.

[McKinneyTexas]

our neighborhood is exchanging emails about "who has chain saws? who has a generator?" some people are going to park cars out near the main road, in case trees fall on our little neighborhood road and block us in.

We got 50" from Harvey and then the Army Corp of Engineers opened up two reservoirs. Really bad flooding. If you expect significant flooding and if you can evacuate, you should. Seriously. Unless your garage has a large tree next to it, I'd leave the the cars inside. Blown items will break windows and cars can actually blow over in high enough winds.

[wj]

Just because some here seem to have a problem with the concept of a moderate/sensible Republican. Yesterday, I got a flyer from my Republican state Assemblywoman touting her endorsement . . . by Governor Brown! Yup, Democratic governor endorsing Republican member of the Assembly for reasonable policies and "working across the aisle."

It does happen!

[cleek]

i don't expect flooding in our neighborhood. we're about 60' up on a good sized ridge between a river and a lake. i'm more worried about our house sliding off the ridge.

[McKinneyTexas]

Unless your house is built on a sloped grade, you should be ok, assuming the ridge doesn't erode out from under you. How far away is the river? In a high flood, they can chew up a lot of new bank.

[CharlesWT]

Regardless of how the storm plays out, you probably shouldn't rely too heavily on the Feds.

"The East Coast is scrambling as residents prepare for Hurricane Florence's landfall later this week. States of emergency have been declared in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia, with government officials warning people to take Florence very seriously.

More than a million people have been forced to evacuate their homes, including everyone on the coast of South Carolina. Long story short: Florence is a big deal. It's already been upgraded to a Category 4 storm, and could even become the first Category 5 hurricane to hit the Southeastern coastal region."
FEMA Is Almost Certainly Not Ready for Hurricane Florence: If FEMA’s prior record when it comes to disaster response is any indication, the agency is not going to handle this well.

[cleek]

Unless your house is built on a sloped grade

it is. it's about 7' higher in front.

How far away is the river?

about 500'

[Girl from the North Country]

Most days, he seems to be struggling to decide between low class and no class. But then something like this happens, and he shows where his heart is: no class at all.

On the other hand, let's not forget that it was a special day for him - from a radio interview on 9/11:

A little more than a minute later, Marcus asked whether Trump’s 40 Wall Street building had suffered any damage. Before getting into his response about his Financial District property, the businessman had something he wanted on the record.

“40 Wall Street actually was the second-tallest building in downtown Manhattan, and it was actually, before the World Trade Center, was the tallest — and then, when they built the World Trade Center, it became known as the second tallest,” Trump said in the WWOR interview. “And now it’s the tallest.”

(from the Washington Post's Morning Mix).

It's hard to avoid the conclusion: the man's a sociopath.

[CharlesWT]

It's hard to avoid the conclusion: the man's a sociopath.

Or he could have been pointing out in a clumsy way that, without the World Trade Center, 40 Wall Street might have been the target. Or could be a target in the future.

[Nigel]

i just heard "thirty inches of rain" in some places. holy crap.

At the risk of being inappropriately facetious, wouldn’t that be holy piss ...?

Anyway, good luck, cleek.
(I honeymooned in the Caribbean during Hugo, so I empathise.)

[McKinneyTexas]

Unless your house is built on a sloped grade

it is. it's about 7' higher in front.

How far away is the river?

about 500'

Damn again. Good luck. Keep us posted.

[Girl from the North Country]

Or he could have been pointing out in a clumsy way that, without the World Trade Center, 40 Wall Street might have been the target. Or could be a target in the future.

Indeed he could. And in support of your suggestion, he might have been worried about future damage to his building and its inhabitants. Because the alternative would suggest boastfulness and self-aggrandisement. Tell us, CharlesWT, given your observation of his behaviour and motivation over the years, which do you think more likely?

[CharlesWT]

If you're looking for them, Trump will give you a nearly endless number of opportunities to see him as a despicable human being. A non-zero number of them will be false positives.

[CharlesWT]

Tell us, CharlesWT, given your observation of his behaviour and motivation over the years, which do you think more likely?

Both could be true.

[Girl from the North Country]

I've just looked up definitions of sociopathy CharlesWT. Trump displays all of them. I said it was hard to avoid the conclusion he is a sociopath, not impossible. Given the context of his tweeting in 2013 "I would like to extend my best wishes to all, even the haters and losers, on this special date, September 11th.", congratulations, you managed a difficult task.

[CharlesWT]

I would be greatly surprised if more than a few politicians at the federal level weren't sociopaths to some degree.

[bobbyp]

Just because some here seem to have a problem with the concept of a moderate/sensible Republican.

Well, that depends on what a so-called 'moderate' Republican espouses in the way of public policy.

Look, the major gripe (well, mine anyway) is this: Uppity libruls took up the cause of Civil Rights and permanently sundered the New Deal coalition. It took some years, but white southern Dems migrated to the GOP in droves.

The uppity 'moderate' Repubs have not made any move to push things to the limit and yell loudly, "Enough you fucking assholes! Enough!" When it comes to the point where they could have some real leverage, they continue to be mere lickspittle and let the radical right run things.

Some high minded opposition, that.

[Girl from the North Country]

CharlesWT @ 02.59: something at least on which we can agree.

[Countme-a-Demon]

http://juanitajean.com/phew-thank-god-thats-over/

Robertson has yer back, cleek and company.

There are disqualifiers for receivIng God's shield from the catastrophe.

See the list.

[russell]

Robertson has yer back, cleek and company.

go up north..?

A non-zero number of them will be false positives.

Whatever.

I would be greatly surprised if more than a few politicians at the federal level weren't sociopaths to some degree.

Of course. And, naturally, nowhere else.

[Countme-a-Demon]

Sociopaths: a plurality in America

[wj]

Look, the major gripe (well, mine anyway) is this: Uppity libruls took up the cause of Civil Rights and permanently sundered the New Deal coalition. It took some years, but white southern Dems migrated to the GOP in droves.

Be assured that it's a major gripe of us moderate Republicans. If youall want them back, be our guest!

The uppity 'moderate' Repubs have not made any move to push things to the limit and yell loudly, "Enough you fucking assholes! Enough!" When it comes to the point where they could have some real leverage, they continue to be mere lickspittle and let the radical right run things.

The challenge is to figure out where and when there actually is leverage. And when the most that can be done is to tend your own garden -- that is, do your own job in government, ignoring the nut cases and their agenda.

In my case, I've got a Republican legislator who is a) pro-choice, b) pro gun control, c) pro gay rights. Makes no secret of the fact.

Is there anything she can do to move the state (let alone national) party towards sanity? Not that I can see. Beyond the obvious of winning elections while they keep losing them (outside their shrinking enclaves). Sometimes, all you can do is all you can do.

[byomtov]

Is there anything she can do to move the state (let alone national) party towards sanity? Not that I can see.

Switch parties?

Probably wouldn't matter in CA, but it sure would in DC. If some of the alleged "moderates" switched, or formed an independent caucus, they might deprive the lunatics of the control that comes with being in the majority. If there were even 2 or 3 they would have some leverage in the current setup.

[joel hanes]

> Kavanaugh

I must be glancing wrong, because Kavanaugh seems completely unlikeable to me, in much the same way that Mitt Romney does, except worse.

A completely artificial personna.

[russell]

A non-zero number of them will be false positives.

Whatever.

Sorry, that was probably unnecessarily dismissive.

In general I agree that nobody is as bad as their personal hype would make them out to be.

In Trump's case, I'm not sure. He actually might be as big a jerk as he appears to be.

Do you know of cases where his apparent behavior was not as bad in fact as it seemed? I'm not. I'm sure examples could be found, somewhere - long ago Marty dug up something where he was nice to Bob Kraft, and he seems awfully fond of Hope Hicks in a non-lecherous way - but in general I'm not aware of anything like that.

In any case, some number of "false positives" doesn't make up for the fact that he is profoundly and harmfully unfit for the position he holds.

[wj]

byomtov,
Yup, I can see it doing some good in DC. But, as you note, it's irrelevant in California. The only question in our legislature is whether the Democrats will have a veto-proof/state-constitution-amending 2/3 majority or not. So being the (potential) nucleus of a new, electable (i.e. sane) GOP is more useful.

[Tony P.]

cleek,

Here's hoping the storm leaves you mildly inconvenienced. BTW, do you have to make any special preparations for your cats?

--TP

[Tony P.]

wj,

Some wag once said of infant baptism: "Believe in it? Why, I've seen it done!"

I feel the same way about "reasonable Republicans". I don't doubt their existence. Only their relevance IN THIS ELECTION.

--TP

[cleek]

BTW, do you have to make any special preparations for your cats?

aside from stocking up on cat food...? i hope not!

AFAICT they're not really afraid of storms. though this will be a bit more than they're used to.

[wj]

Their relevance in this election? I'd say that the reasonable Republicans among voters are probably going to be the margin of victory for a number of Congressional Democrats.

Embrace them -- every little bit helps. Especially for Bresden, O'Rourke, and Espy.

[Pro Bono]

this special date, September 11th

It's my son's 16th birthday. He is a blessing.

[dr ngo]

My status at the moment is: fine.

Nice sunny day in Durham. Sporadic shopping around town, busy stores but no panic. Most shoppers (like myself) seemed less in search of vital survival supplies than thinking "Well, the stores may not be open for a few days, so maybe I'll pick up this item today while I'm out."

My status over the next week is: problematic.

Florence itself will probably not do us much damage, assuming the winds are down to just 60 mph or so. Of course some of the surrounding trees (mostly loblolly pines, up to 100' tall) could fall over on our house, but that's always a possibility when your neighborhood is an ex-forest. Heavy rainfall, based on past experience, will lead to some seepage in the basement - we've been dealing with that off and on for years - and sodden lawns, overflowing pool, etc., but no permanent damage.

We are well stocked with bottled water and canned food. Power outages of a day or two are precedented; longer than that will be really annoying, but should be survivable.

Key variable for me: my surgery is set for Monday, but the time/schedule is not provided until after 4pm on Friday. But that's with Duke Hospital actually functioning fully. If not?? My greatest dread is postponement, possibly for weeks or even more, since my specialist surgeon only cuts a couple of times a month.

Physically we're doing fine (given our general decrepitude, etc.). Psychologically, I'm not sure how well we might handle a major postponement.

But as John Wayne used to say (imagine me doing a JW impression here - imagine it better than I actually do it): A Man's Gotta Do What A Man's Gotta Do.

(and thanks for asking, sapient)

[Yama]

" despoiling the oceans seems irretrievable. Not to The Ocean Cleanup, a Dutch charity backed by crowdfunders, deep-pocketed endowments and tech tycoons like Peter Thiel. It has designed a system to trawl for polymers in the vast mid-ocean gyres where flotsam gathers. The 600-metre boom, with a three-metre dangling"

Are we finally mining the oceans for plastic? I have lived my whole life for this moment.

[liberal japonicus]

I just went up to find the link for the ocean cleanup and I see wj posted it here

http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2018/09/hurricane-we-dont-need-no-stinkin-ot.html?cid=6a00d834515c2369e2022ad3aff91c200b#comment-6a00d834515c2369e2022ad3aff91c200b

wj, I hope you don't take this the wrong way, but wj, I really think that friends shouldn't let friends read breitbart...

[Yama]

I always recommend Key Largo during this season. Good luck.

[Hartmut]

Are we finally mining the oceans for plastic? I have lived my whole life for this moment.

Hopefully this will not end like the German post-WW1 project to extract gold from ocean water in order to pay for the reparations.
A great step for chemical analytics but a dud economically.

[Countme-a-Demon]

"Are we finally mining the oceans for plastic? I have lived my whole life for this moment."

I live for spit takes and thanks for the one just now triggered by that inspired and perfectly timed bit of deadpan comedy.

Yes, we have survived to become the self-congratulatory ragpickers among our own despoilment.

I must have tossed out one of those plastic six pack pelican nooses some decades back and I for one would like it returned to me, maybe with six pelican necks neatly attached and resold at the seabird distributorship out on Highway 8.

I now see why Benjamin Braddock in "The Graduate" donned the diving equipment and concealed himself at the bottom of the pool. One word: Plastics. Hey, hey, hey Mrs. Robinson.

Pretty cool concept, however:
https://www.fastcompany.com/40419899/boy-genius-boyan-slats-giant-ocean-cleanup-machine-is-real

No doubt, the usual suspects will use this as an opportunity to strike recycling regs from the books of local governments and further defund the EPA, as we can now despoil with impunity, knowing the ocean boom is Roomba-Ing our detritus at its leisure.

I, for one, have lived my whole life for the moment when littering can once again be a guilt-free expression of freedom and self-fulfillment.

Like Rocko, I'm telling ya:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lfnko4zOLAQ

[Nigel]

I hope all goes well, dr ngo.

[Countme-a-Demon]

https://www.mediamatters.org/video/2018/09/11/rachel-maddow-reports-trump-administration-took-10-million-fema-fund-immigrant-detention-and/221282

I would expect they are placing the detainees as well in low-lying coastal areas where the water table is about to rise.

They'll be like the water department murder victim in "Chinatown" .... dead in a fresh water pool somewhat inland, but their lungs filled with salt water.

One hopes that will be Rush Limbaugh's fate, but I'll be happy to hold his fat head under until death do he good goddamned part:

https://www.mediamatters.org/video/2018/09/11/rush-limbaugh-hurricane-florence-forecast-and-destruction-potential-doom-and-gloom-all-heighten/221278

He won't be able to run from the water or hide from the wind, or escape the volcanic fury of the lava dome about to explode and kill him.

[sapient]

I hope all goes well, dr ngo.

Seconded.

[Girl from the North Country]

I hope all goes well, dr ngo.

Seconded.

Thirded even, dr ngo.

[wj]

wj, I really think that friends shouldn't let friends read breitbart...

lj, I take your point. It wasn't that I thought anyone should read it. But that, since it was Breitbart actually supporting doing something positive for the environment, I should provide evidence that could be checked by skeptics. (I only found it myself because googling the topic turned up the link, and I was startled.)

[wj]

I would expect they are placing the detainees as well in low-lying coastal areas where the water table is about to rise.

Count, you're assuming a level of competence that has been nowhere in evidence. They might like the idea (if someone else suggested it). But implement it? Probably only get it done a couple months after the storm has past. If that fast -- see the stuff still not yet done in Puerto Rico
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/puerto-rico-hurricane-funeral-assistance-fema

[wj]

Once you get serious about corruption, even the sky isn't the limit. This from Trump's NASA administrator
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/405875-nasa-looking-into-selling-naming-rights-for-rockets-to-brands

[bc]

Hope all are doing well that live in Florence's path.

lj: Ok, teach, I read the homework. While the visit to post-reconstruction SCOTUS opinions is always a helpful reminder, especially if it involves reading Harlan dissents (as hard as those are to read in one way, they show how much further along we would have been so much sooner had Harlan been in the majority), I am not so sure it was in this case.

The article is almost pure political screed and hardly helpful. The conservatives are "indifferent" to discrimination in practice? All three branches of the federal government are committed to white supremacy, putting down women, disenfranchising and impoverishing African Americans? Seriously? Paving the way for "white man's government" by another name?

This is inflammatory and unnecessary rhetoric. It a (barely) more intellectual equivalent of calling every conservative a Nazi. If you disagree with a leftist policy, you are a bigot.

And the direct comparison (not toned down in the least) of the conservatives on the court with those of the 19th century rests on the thin reed of Trump v. Hawaii. Really? We are going to pick a case that doesn't involve U.S. citizens and is in the area of foreign affairs? That simply makes no sense.

Perhaps I missed your point. Perhaps your point was this is the sort of thing that unnecessarily inflames the anger on the left to a conservative appointment to the court. Somehow I doubt that.

[Girl from the North Country]

It's my son's 16th birthday. He is a blessing

Saw this too late to wish your son a happy birthday. Neither he nor you are sociopaths for finding September 11th a special day!

[sapient]

Like the Supreme Court of that era, the conservatives on the Court today are opposed to discrimination in principle, and indifferent to it in practice. Chief Justice John Roberts’s June 2018 ruling to uphold President Donald Trump’s travel ban targeting a list of majority-Muslim countries, despite the voluminous evidence that it had been conceived in animus, showed that the muddled doctrines of the post-Reconstruction period retain a stubborn appeal.

bc, instead of ranting aimlessly, perhaps you could address the example provided.

[CharlesWT]

The Carolinas and Virginia have invoked their anti-price gouging laws. So don't look for many people to be in a big hurry to bring in needed supplies and services in the aftermath of the storm.

[Girl from the North Country]

The Carolinas and Virginia have invoked their anti-price gouging laws. So don't look for many people to be in a big hurry to bring in needed supplies and services in the aftermath of the storm.

CharlesWT, I don't want to seem to be (or even to really be) picking on you after our Trump spat, but do you think that the opportunity to make outsize profits is the only reason people rush to bring needed supplies and services in the aftermath of a big storm? How outsize do profits have to be to fall within the definition of price-gouging?

[Countme-a-Demon]

The key is to price gouge on a sunny, mild summer day so no one notices the gouging during the intemperate interludes.

I wonder if NASA gives naming rights to, to say, Dunkin Donuts on a craft searching for interstellar life if said life will translate Donuts as "come and eat us".

[wj]

For those looking for some news to brighten their day, 538's odds of Democrats taking the House just passed 80% for the first time.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Combine that with McConnell deciding to keep the Senate in session for most of October -- in order to get as many judges approved as possible before he loses his majority?

On which front, I'm thinking we end up with Heitkamp squeezing out another few hundred vote victory in North Dakota, and the Democrats winning both Tennessee and Texas. The question in my mind is, do they somehow manage Mississippi as well? But then, everybody knows us Republicans are detached from reality... ;-)

[sapient]

Actually, bc should have posted on the other thread, and I should have answered him there. Also, I think bc should have addressed his comment to Ugh. But maybe it's me who's confused.

[CharlesWT]

How outsize do profits have to be to fall within the definition of price-gouging?

Depending on state law, even minimal increases in prices could be declared price-gouging.

Of course, government and relief organizations will be there in the aftermath. But they're sometimes too little, too late. And there will be locals who will risk their assets and themselves to help. But, in the absence of price-gouging laws, price signals tell everyone what is needed and how badly. And what should be conserved and what can be used more freely.

[sapient]

But, in the absence of price-gouging laws, price signals tell everyone what is needed and how badly. And what should be conserved and what can be used more freely.

Do you have an example of a disaster where the absence of price-gouging laws has saved lives?

[bc]

But maybe it's me who's confused

Or me? Isn't this the post where lj said we all had to read Adam Serwer? I'll check out the other posts.

And I was ranting?

[sapient]

No, I was confused because the new Kavanaugh thread was posted, but the Serwer piece was here.

Yes, I think you were ranting, bc, because instead of addressing the issue, you complained about the fact that it was brought up in a certain way. What about the issue? The fact that Kavanaugh voted to uphold the Muslim ban, despite its obvious origin. Care to comment?

[sapient]

Rather, the Serwer piece discusses the Roberts court, not Kavanaugh. Still, it would be interesting for you to comment on the ruling rather than feign hurt feelings because someone mentioned it.

[sapient]

So, to conclude: I apologize for having been confused. You commented in the correct thread, and addressed the correct person.

However, you didn't address the point.

[hairshirthedonist]

I hope all goes well, dr ngo.

Seconded.

Thirded even, dr ngo.

And fourthed! (May the fourth be with you.)

[Girl from the North Country]

bc, FWIW it wasn't lj who said we all had to read Serwer, it was Ugh.

[CharlesWT]

Do you have an example of a disaster where the absence of price-gouging laws has saved lives?

I'm finding it difficult to find any explicit examples.

Here's an article, which I disagree with of course, that counters my arguments.

"The only force that can address the market is government, by making the cost of crucial commodities irrelevant by getting them into the market at its own cost. We’re talking about a case where nature herself has thrown the economics textbooks into the drink. It behooves academic economists like Worstall, Perry and Mankiw to keep something in mind, always: We’re not talking about tickets to a show."
Memo to economists defending price gouging in a disaster: It's still wrong, morally and economically

[CharlesWT]

"The "Waffle House Index" has become a key part of storm preparedness: When a Waffle House closes in the face of an impending storm, that's when you really need to be worried."
FEMA May Not be Prepared for Hurricane Florence, but Waffle House Is: The "Waffle House Index" shows some differences between the private and public sector when it comes to emergency preparedness.

[jrudkis]

Presumably price gouging reduces hoarding, and therefore provides more people with the minimum they need to overcome the event. For example, getting 5 gallons of gas in my car rather than filling it up, so I had enough to get out of the way, and then buy more gas in a place where it is not a critical commodity. Having no gas at normal price is worse than having some gas at 4X price. The same mom with 3 kids who can't afford $7 a bottle water also can't get any water if it was sold to someone who bought more than he needed because it was not priced where he did not want to buy extra.

In some of the rural areas near me, gas is a dollar more a gallon than in the suburban areas (we have no urban areas...). I don't think of that as price gouging, but someone who is not making money on volume sales. But the effect is the same, I am happy to pay the extra so there is gas there where I need it. I typically don't fill up, but get enough to go somewhere cheaper. (Even at a dollar extra, it is cheaper than CA.)

I doubt gouging is helpful after the event and roads are open. Before the roads are open for resupply, ensuring people are not hoarding and fuel/water is available for critical needs seems prudent.

I suppose they could ration instead, or have the government somehow overcome the logistical problems of the disaster as the article seems to suggest is simple or at least potentially timely. Neither seem like something that can be instituted quickly enough to make commodities more available.

Didn't we do this in the 70s when we had a gas crisis, and there was a cap on the price of gas (at a dollar, I think). Odd/Even days, long gas lines, etc.

[sapient]

GftNC, I'm so confused. I should just let the topic go, except for the fact that bc hasn't bothered to get to the point. I guess I wouldn't blame bc if the point has been lost.

CharlesWT, thanks for pointing to an article contrary to your argument. What a good faith opponent!

[Countme-a-Demon]

Waffles come in handy for boarding up windows against an impending storm when plywood eight by fours are in short supply and priced out of reach.

[Countme-a-Demon]

"My kingdom for a horse" was both price gouging and the extraction of a pound of horseflesh.

[hairshirthedonist]

Didn't we do this in the 70s when we had a gas crisis, and there was a cap on the price of gas (at a dollar, I think). Odd/Even days, long gas lines, etc.

Yes, but a long-term, national price-cap is a bit different. It's highly theoretical to suggest that the same outcome should be expected on a short-term, regionalized basis, particularly when there's a warning coming more days before the event than the number of days the acute need will last.

[russell]

don't look for many people to be in a big hurry to bring in needed supplies and services in the aftermath of the storm.

There will probably be quite a lot of people bringing supplies and services after the storm.

Some folks don't need a price signal to tell them what to do.

Every human relationship does not have to manifest itself in the form of a market transaction.

[Countme-a-Demon]

If conservative and libertarian economists averaged out their desire for both charity replacing government and price-gouging replacing government, prices might stay level thru thick and thin.

[hairshirthedonist]

Even greedy capitalists know that some good PR (or the avoidance of very bad PR) can outweigh a short-term profit. That's without even considering that they might actually give a sh*t about other human beings.

[Countme-a-Demon]

A steady flow of war and natural catastrophes keeps the velocity of money humming nicely.

Those who capitalize both have an obvious skip in their step as the tides rise.

[CharlesWT]

A counter to the article against price-gouging I linked to.

"Even those sharply critical of price gouging concede the correctness of such observations. The Los Angeles Times' Michael Hiltzik, for instance, acknowledges that the "textbook economics" of price-gouging are "irreproachable." But he and others still find it objectionable.

They find it objectionable, first, because they consider price spikes morally wrong. Behind the objection lies an unspoken assumption: that there must be some morally correct price for a consumer good, independent of the wishes of the person selling it. Yet a merchant has no moral obligation to sell his goods in the first place. A grocer who closes his store so he can evacuate the city is not breaking any cosmic moral laws, for instance. And if a merchant has no moral duty to sell something at all, then it makes little sense to say he has a duty to sell it at a certain price."
Laws Against 'Gouging' Are Simplistic and Wrong: So-called price gouging helps send important signals to buyers and sellers.