Irma

by liberal japonicus

this from http://grist.org/article/irma-the-strongest-atlantic-hurricane-in-history-keeps-getting-stronger/ via LGM

Should the hurricane make landfall in Florida or elsewhere in the Southeast, it will set a regrettable record — the first-ever back-to-back U.S. landfalls of Category 4 or higher storms.

Hurricane Harvey’s catastrophic impact in Texas and Louisiana now ranks as the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. (Hurricane Katrina cost an estimated $150 billion in 2017 dollars, and the Texas governor’s office estimates Harvey could cost $180 billion.) A recent study examined the possibility of a Category 5 hurricane strike in downtown Miami. It calculated that damages from that nightmare scenario could cost upward of $300 billion.

As improbable as it may seem, two of the worst hurricanes in U.S. history might hit in the span of just two weeks.

Consider this in lieu of any number of sarcastic comments that I could make.

Comments

[Yama]

Hoping for the best. I plan on watching Key Largo sometime this weekend, unless the devastation is just too much to take.

A near miss can be an exiting time. I really hope it turns out that way.

[Countme-a-Demon]

Be safe, Yama.

But don't get any ideas, see .... the boat stays.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGVpPQ61F9Y

This guy is who is making the decisions in America, along with his boys in Florida, see, and don't you forget it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGCTZsvp6lU

[wj]

And remember, we're barely half way thru hurricane season. So it's not impossible that we could get hit by a third huge storm before the year is over.

Remind me again why the budgets for NOAA (which, among other things, tracks and predicts the paths of hurricanes) and FEMA (which, also among other things, cleans up after them) are supposed to be substantially cut next year. I guess getting to smaller government is a good thing, without reference to what you are cutting....

[Countme-a-Demon]

"A recent study examined the possibility of a Category 5 hurricane strike in downtown Miami. It calculated that damages from that nightmare scenario could cost upward of $300 billion.

"Remind me again why the budgets for NOAA (which, among other things, tracks and predicts the paths of hurricanes) and FEMA (which, also among other things, cleans up after them) are supposed to be substantially cut next year.

Would you rather be a wiseguy or a dumbell?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_Pt39CIQd4

We've chosen.

Fucking, stinking vermin.

[Countme-a-Demon]

He wants more. All of the filth want more. You can't fill them up:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITs-YX1yQ7o

[Countme-a-Demon]

All of the misery is a cash register, a slot machine jackpot for those who count:

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/collateral-damage-in-trumps-war-with-the-fake-news-media/

Must be nice

[liberal japonicus]

Remind me again why the budgets for NOAA (which, among other things, tracks and predicts the paths of hurricanes) and FEMA (which, also among other things, cleans up after them) are supposed to be substantially cut next year.

wj, I think it has something about not letting our friends on the left dictate policy.

[Ugh]

"Only the best hurricanes."

[BloodTired]

I heard Harvey was now up to $200 billion. And that's probably still a lowball estimation.

Wife was happy with going to a special needs shelter, now she's unhappy and is thinking about just getting the hell out of Dodge. By the time we got packed (10-15 minutes for me, my wife is a bit more complicated with all of her equipment, like her portable oxygen concentrator with associated hosing and her BiPAP machine. And then, we'd have to set things up for our cats (they weren't too happy when we were gone for four days for Mathew last year...). The earliest I see us leaving would be tonight. Trouble is, at that late stage of the game, we'd still be sitting in traffic at that point. Yesterday was the day to leave, even here in Jacksonville, and I'd have to drive NW to make sure we won't still be caught up in Irma in some way.

Sorry, dear, we're going to the shelter now! Also, she thinks that she can just click her fingers and stuff gets done. No, our grown kids have lives and priorities of their own to deal with, starting with their own hurricane to do lists. smh

This house has been standing for 50 years, I don't think it's going to go anywhere, a 100 year flood looks to reach our driveway, and then it's another five feet up to go before it reaches our doorstep. And this isn't a rain bringer like Harvey, it will be short, but powerful.

[russell]

stay safe, bloodtired.

[Yama]

Thanks Count, I love that movie.

I will be safe up here in RI, until the next storm gets to us, I am just hoping everyone in Irma's path stays safe. I love hurricanes, except for the bad parts. Our last bad deal was Sandy; I am not sure if I could live through another one of those.

Blood, my sympathies. Evacuating is no fun, even when you are young and invincible. And the cats will make you pay. We have a couple ferals we inherited from a neighbour who moved; we worry how we will handle them.

[russell]

it has something about not letting our friends on the left dictate policy.

I somewhat hesitate to post this, because it's unseemly to try to score political points at a time when folks are having to pick up sticks and get the hell out of the way of a hurricane like Irma.

I'm posting it anyway, because IMO this just isn't a left/right thing. Things are what they are, and our opinions about them are more or less irrelevant.

The reason I find claims of large scale climate change credible is because of stuff like this.

The USDA is not motivated by getting more of the sweet, sweet grant money. In this case, they take temperatures and plot them on a map. It is what it is.

"The left" is not trying to "retool the global economy". Climate scientists are not "going all henny penny". Things are actually happening, and people are trying to understand that, and respond to it in a constructive way.

Sometimes all you can do is repeat yourself. As far as I know, none of us here are actually climate scientists. Most folks who blather away on this topic, from all points of view, are not climate scientists. Discussing the arcana of the science is above most folks pay grade.

That's why we should, and hopefully will, consider what the folks who actually have the specialized knowledge to have an informed opinion about this stuff have to say.

For the rest of us, the reasonable way to approach this is as an exercise in risk management.

What is the likelihood of harmful things happening? Zero percent? 100 percent? Somewhere in the middle? Approximately where in the middle?

What is the cost if they happen? We're talking almost $200B for one storm, so the costs are more than trivial. What does it cost to lose the use of a major international airport every time the tide is high?

What is the cost of planting zones moving north? Sugar maples production is worth tens to hundreds of millions of dollars to the northeast US. That industry is moving north, to Canada. Just one data point.

Cost of harm * likelihood of harm. Do the math, and see if deserves our attention.

The elephant in the room is the fact that about 80% of the book value of Exxon/Mobil and the other big oil companies is reserves still in the ground.

If we don't extract them, they're worth zero dollars. If we leave them in the ground, that is going to be a great big haircut, and lots and lots and lots of people will be losing money. In some cases, a lot of money.

The bigs are already having to write down the value of some of their reserves, warming or no warming, and it's costing a lot.

We need an intelligent plan to navigate this. To my knowledge, no such plan is forthcoming.

So we're along for the ride.

Lefties don't need to "retool" the economy. The economy is a large complex system, with its own internal dynamics. We "lefties" have bugger-all to say about it. It will re-tool itself.

We either get ahead of it, or it runs us over.

All of you FL people stay safe.

[Countme-a-Demon]

I can't tell whether this is henny penny or finger-licking good as conservative principles are spreading throughout our government:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/irma-survivors-describe-horror-movie-as-deadly-monster-storm-heads-for-the-us?via=newsletter&source=DDMorning

How do we like our goose cooked? Apparently on the cheap.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/fema-is-almost-out-of-cash-with-hurricane-irma-about-to-strike?via=newsletter&source=CSAMedition

And to think, we could have used the eggs.

[wonkie]

And the Rocky Muntains are on fire and the cascades are burning and the unforgivable bastards in the Republican party want to open Escalente Staircase to mining. And they are the party of global climate change deniers.

No one will ever be able to have a childhoodl ike I had, roaming the beautiful wild places, the flower fields of glacier, the forests of the Cascades, the slick rock desert.. the whooping cranes in the marshes at Aransas.

I am gald my parents are dead. I am gald I have no children. ANd even though I know it is wrong to do so, I am feeling a lot of hate for people who vote Republican.

[JanieM]

about letting our friends on the left [sic] dictate policy

Yeah, things are sooooooooo much better when we let our "friends" on the "right" dictate "policy."

Gah.

[wj]

I think it has something about not letting our friends on the left dictate policy.

Yeah, I figured that it was a two-prong motivation:
1) slash everything, because slashing is good.
2) cut these agencies in particular, because they might (God forbid!) find more evidence that the climate change folks would use to try to persuade us to do something that would be inconvenient in the short (maybe next couple of years, but probably just the next quarter) term.

[joel hanes]

What is the cost of planting zones moving north?

Serious reduction in "breadbasket" agriculture in North America.
Here's a map of the Candadian Shield, a heavily-glaciated craton of exposed, ancient, durable bedrock.
https://media1.britannica.com/eb-media/98/180898-004-3CE63710.jpg

To a first approximation, the Canadian Shield will not support grain agriculture -- the topsoil, where there is any, is inches deep, and acid from conifer forests. So the agriculture of Pennsylvania, the Ohio Valley, Illinois, and Iowa cannot "move north".

[BloodTired]

Thanks russell.

We will.

My wife has just figured out that we need to start packing now just for the shelter! Which looks like it won't open up until Saturday! She also asked if we were going to to just evacuate up North this morning first thing, and I told her it was too late to do so. Which, I sure hope now that she understands that since we're now in the process of packing for the shelter, which is 2-3 days away. I need to find some distilled water, or her BiPAP is going to use bottled water for when she does run out. Probably not a bad thing.

What is the cost of planting zones moving north?

Serious reduction in "breadbasket" agriculture in North America.
Here's a map of the Candadian Shield, a heavily-glaciated craton of exposed, ancient, durable bedrock.
https://media1.britannica.com/eb-media/98/180898-004-3CE63710.jpg

To a first approximation, the Canadian Shield will not support grain agriculture -- the topsoil, where there is any, is inches deep, and acid from conifer forests. So the agriculture of Pennsylvania, the Ohio Valley, Illinois, and Iowa cannot "move north".

Too many people poopoo that. Even if equatable land was available, there's the cost of acquiring the land, moving the equipment, the employees, even the employers if they work as well, and building the needed infrastructure (barns, housing, roads, clearing the land). It's not going to come cheap, and selling the old land is going to lead to lots and lots of losses on those sales.

[cleek_with_a_fake_beard]

...and acid from conifer forests

and from acid rain due to mid-west power plants.

thankfully, this has been recently reduced by ... gasp... job-killing government regulation.

[Countme-a-Demon]

Aye, but what of the avocado orchards on the sunny shingle of the Baffin Bay in spring time?

And the winsome pecan trees along the exhaling tundra, now playa, north of Kugluktuk way, as the Gila monsters gambol and wabe.

Hope springs infernal.

[russell]

If climate change knocks a month off of Canadian winter, I'm moving to Quebec City.

That is all.

[Countme-a-Demon]

Yeah, but Denver TO Miami is a bargain this time of year.

Florida is remarkably mild in the Fall.

http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/09/aint-free-market-grand

How else to ration a scarce resource like survival?

Why, I'll bet the leg room is roomy in the hips.

Be cheaper to hijack the plane outta there.

Gotta go, it's time for my weekly shoplifting rationing spree.

The mercenary is me needs his exercise:

[Countme-a-Demon]

"in" me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzt82V-xtfA&t=4s

[JanieM]

wj, I think it has something about not letting our friends on the left dictate policy.

Get in line.

Although I'd probably choose a smaller place for full-time residency. Winters and all. (Easy to say on a beautiful September day...)

[JanieM]

Geeze, that quote was supposed to be from Russell's comment about Quebec City.

I need a nap.

[hairshirthedonist]

Vancouver for me, and it has nothing to do with the BC bud!

[Girl from the North Country]

All of you FL people stay safe.

Very much seconded.

We've had to come home early from our Scottish trip, because I fell badly on Sunday night and badly wrenched my knee ligaments (self-diagnosis, but I felt and heard it happen). After frequent application of icepacks, things are much better, but it was no time for staying in country hotels without lifts, in Scotland or the New Forest. It rained incessantly (not unheard of in Scotland), and we encountered two terrible accidents on mountain roads on different days, which in one case necessitated turning back and taking a 3-hour detour.

We felt the fates were against us, but on the other hand, we faced no hurricanes and did not have to pack up and move house fleeing the storm. Major sympathy to all involved, and although (as recently discussed) I won't be praying, I will be thinking of you all and hoping for the best. russell's saintly decision not to play politics is, as always, admirable, but I have to admit I'm with wonkie on this. There's only one party in the US the politicians (and many voters) of which deny the reality of climate change...

[bobbyp]

dateline, Seattle...

save the salmon? nah. That would take us back to the bronze age....worse than extinction.

Go long locally grown agave futures.

[joel hanes]

the winsome pecan trees

Pecan trees historically winter-killed in Iowa, and no one had any success with them there ... until this decade.

Now farmers on the erodible loess soils in Iowa's south-central tier of counties are beginning to convert ravine/ridge timberlands to pecan orchards.

I figure peaches and nectarines will be next.

[liberal japonicus]

We've got mangos in Kyushu now. Papaya, pineapples and jackfruit next?

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299472513_Current_status_of_tropical_fruit_breeding_and_genetics_for_three_tropical_fruit_species_cultivated_in_Japan_Pineapple_mango_and_papaya

[wonkie]

There's another one coming along behind Irma. I cant imagine what this is doing to the seabirds and island wildllife.

[JakeB]

And a drought like out of Exodus in Montana and the Dakotas. -- adding to wonkie's woe list.

BloodTired, best of luck to you.

[bob mcmanus]

Attention Attention: Ignore this for safety reasons if you are affected.

By now it may seem like hindsight, but based on little science but just a vague sense of history and memory of Harvey I thought a couple days ago the predicted paths for Irma might be a little off and Irma would track more Westerly than expected. As I was saying in my house, I think the forecasters underestimate something like the forward momentum of hurricanes or that big strong hurricanes create their own regional weather.

So I expected Irma to track along, but outside the west coast of Florida rather than zooming through the center, continuing to draw energy and moisture from the Gulf and staying strong.

Now the eye might even miss central Florida completely and landfall in the panhandle or NOLA. Or slow all the way down like Harvey. And Jose would take a more westerly path before turning North.

All horrible news whatever happens.

[bob mcmanus]

Probably not NOLA, maybe Mobile. Or turn into Fla somewhere SE of the panhandle. We'll see. And as I say, I'm nobody and nothing, listen to the experts.

Metes: We do this every day, and when a storm moving west meets a front moving east, it turns north.

Irma: I eat your milkshake, puny little front.

[bob mcmanus]

I filter nobody or nothing. Good to see people can find relief from worry by arguing for days with Marty about the budget ceiling. Didn't expect to see anybody in this thread.

Weather.com looks like it is getting overloaded.

Weatherunderground

Just the most recent of Jeff Masters columns, but I, not any kind of authoritarian liberal worshiping expertise, read all the comments which kinda live blog the event. Live cams, models, radar maps, these amateurs, semi-pros, and hurricane otakus know a lot.

Saying New Orleans gets you banned over there. But there is a lot of commentary on the forecast track moving west. Is the top model actually claiming Irma hits the keys and then does a near 180 to Miami? Okaaaaay.

I guess it would get me in trouble to say it is kinda fun. Insufficiently mournful compassion for prevailing local norms. Jokes like the "Jim Cantore shield": Cantore has moved from Miami to Tampa, which means Tampa is now safer.

Yeah, I am something of an apocalypse otaku, one of my many vices which mutually condition the others.

[bob mcmanus]

WU

Just an amazing radar image in there around 9:56 by FIUStormchaser that shows that Irma and that very very strong eastward moving ridgefront battling it out in the western gulf. I think Irma is pushing the front back, but you can also see the front crushing Irma.

They say that if Irma moves much further west, the shear from the collision will break her up. There's a prayer.

[bob mcmanus]

I guess this is my open thread, and tired of going thru 5 pages

Live blogging LGM, where I wouldn't last 5 minutes if they even let me register, altho come to think it I don't do disqus...

I adore Turkish names. My absolute favorites. I think they are stunningly beautiful. Maybe it is just exoticism or something, but then are Cambodian names. Not so much.

And we should all know a little more about Turkey because it has had several waves of excellent movies, native and Turko-German. Mostly patriarchal, but there are a couple woman directors I've liked.

[bob mcmanus]

What Disaster News Does to Us ...not long enough

"It's hard to make an argument that something is bad if the only evidence you are permitted to use is of the innocuous wonky variety." ...hmmm

"The truth is that at some level we are all fascinated by the suffering of others. Who has not heard in the back of his head that grotesque nagging little voice of anti-hope, wishing that it will be a Category 5 after all? We are, nearly all of us, disappointed just slightly when things turn out to be better than we had expected — which is to say, better than initial reports had prepared us to imagine they might be. This is why people read true crime, why stopped cars on the side of the road slow down traffic..."