Obsidian Wings

Bridge and Troubled Waters

by Doctor Science

I drove back to NJ from New England on Saturday, and unexpectedly found myself one of the first 100,000 or so people to cross the new Tappan Zee Bridge. Right now, only the westbound lanes are open; eastbound is scheduled to open in June 2018.

My report:

As bridges go, not bad![1] I was already used to the Old TZB, and the new bridge is only a few feet higher. It actually sets off my bridge-fear less: because the grade going up to the main span and then down is much lower, so though you're higher above the water for longer than on the old bridge, it doesn't feel like it. And it's *much* wider and of course in better repair. The Old TZB was so far outside its design specs (in age and load) I was getting really nervous in the last few years.

This is the first Cable-stayed bridge I've crossed. So far I have no complaints: it "feels" sturdy enough, even though I can see a lot of sky.

Going between the pylons on the Mario Cuomo Bridge. Photo by Adam.

Video of a trip over the new span (with dog), by John Gerraughty

Is it worth $4B? I don't see how it could not be: this is an extremely important gateway between New England and the rest of the country, the old bridge was living on borrowed time, and the new one is rated to last 100 years. Frankly, I was impressed at how close to "On Time and On Budget" they've gotten, given that it's such a major construction project (government or otherwise).

There *is* the question of who will pay for it, of course. For now the NY legislature have pledged not to raise tolls until 2020, but there's bound to be an increase then.

As for who *should* pay for the bridge, there's no question in my mind: it should be (mostly) the trucking industry. It won't, of course, but that would be fair.

Most of the vehicles that go over the TZB are cars, of course. But it turns out that the stress a vehicle puts on a road or bridge goes up as the fourth power of its weight per axle.

An example: my 2-axle car weighs about 4000 lbs. Empty, a typical 5-axle tractor-trailer weighs about 33,000 lbs. So the empty truck is about 3.3 times as heavy per axle, and causes almost 120 times the damage.

My toll on the TZB is $4.75[2]. If that truck was paying its way across the TBZ, it should pay a toll of more than $500. But that's only if it's empty! Remember, the burden on the system goes up as the fourth power. If the truck is pretty full, weighing 72,800 lbs, it weighs 6 or 7 times as much per axle as my car -- and does more than 1500 times the damage. A fair toll would be more than $8000.

In actuality, no truck pays more than $50 to go over the TZB, and that's the rush hour price: it drops to under $25 if you cross at night. Other drivers, and the population as a whole, are subsidizing the trucking industry to a truly epic degree. And this occurs while the trucking industry has exploited its workers to the point of indentured servitude -- before they start replacing most of them with robots.

Obviously, if a significant part of the true cost of trucking was borne by the trucking industry, shipping costs would have to skyrocket--and the prices of all kinds of goods to consumers would, as well. How much should we pay directly, per item, how much should be subsidized by car drivers, and how much should just be paid for with general taxes, like an Amazon Prime membership for everyone in the country?

I've seen a few suggestions that trucks should pay their fair share of road costs, but none that really faces the scope of the problem. Do other countries have a better solution?

---

Speaking of infrastructure and what things cost, it seems a pretty safe bet to predict that Harvey will be the most expensive natural disaster in American history (so far). Let's keep our fingers crossed that the loss of life won't make the top 10.

Ways to help:

• Consumer Reports has a good overview of where to give, though I would *not* recommend the Red Cross. (Here's one reason why.)
• NPR has a particularly good list, including food banks, the Texas Diaper Bank, and Portlight, which focuses on helping people with disabilities, who are at very high risk during and after disasters.
• Another good list of local charities
• Donate money, not goods! If you can provide in-person help, do it--but coordinate with experts, so your effort goes where it will do the most good
• Pace yourselves. It's going to be a long time before we even know the scope of the damage, months to years before the area is back to its new normal -- whatever that is.

Two good "how the heck did this happen?" explainers storified from Twitter: A Houston Floodsplainer by Matt Corbett, and Politics of Flood Control in Houston by Billy Fleming.

Corbett explains that the Houston roads are part of the stormwater system: they are *intended* to flood before houses do, then drain the water into the bayous. This is why there was no evacuation order: tens of thousands of people stuck on highways when they flooded would have been a worst-case scenario.

Fleming (who just finished a PhD on the topic) explains that damage to Houston, especially the ports and petrochemical facilities, is a national security problem. We can expect to see hundreds of petrochemical spills, as well as fires and explosions like the one currently taking place in Crosby, TX. "The flood will be devastating. The toxic spill that follows may never be cleaned up," Fleming says.

The other big point Fleming makes is that the Texas General Land Office (GLO) will have primary responsibility for approving new protective infrastructure around Houston and other cities. This will give great power and a political boost to George P. Bush (Jeb's son), "who a former elected official in the area described as "the biggest political coward in Texas history."" We can expect him to give petrochemical companies and the rich everything they ask for, while approving plans that burden or displace poor Houstonians.

And yes, when this is Houston's third "500 year flood" in a row, one of the causes is human-caused climate change. Damage to petrochemical facilities in the Houston area is likely to raise the price of oil in the short term, but if that accelerates the move to renewables then it may lead to some popping of the carbon bubble on which Houston's economy depends -- or on which it depended last month.

One of the paintings from The Flood of 1855, a set of 25 pictures by Dutch artist Johan Veltens.

No-one knows more than the Dutch about dealing with flooding, and they are doubtless eager for Texas to ask their advice. I predict that, if they do, Texas will not *take* that advice, because the first part would be "raise taxes on the rich, they can afford it and you're all in this together." Given a choice between "repeated devastation of the Gulf Coast" and "a Good Business Environment™", is there any doubt which one Texas politicians will choose?

---

[1] I don't think I ever posted about my freak-out heading for the Pulaski Skyway in April 2016, but ... that was a thing, too. I was coming from a memorial service in NYC, out of the Holland Tunnel, and I just ... looked up, and started hyperventilating. The police people were very nice and understanding (I'm a nice, middle-aged mature white lady, it's a perk) and showed me how to get off the damned bridge and go over the flat one instead.

[2] This is for a round trip: tolls on the TZB (and other Hudson River crossings) are only collected going eastbound, toward the Manhattan side of the river.

They didn't have magic markers in the Bronze Age!

by liberal japonicus

Hope I'm not stepping on wj's excellently titled previous post (I do love me a good post title), but I thought I would open one about Houston, flooding and how it is ridiculous that these pointy headed squints are pointing at climate as being a possible cause when Houston has a lesbian mayor. Anyway, what provides my title is this

Meanwhile, North of Beaumont, Tyler County Judge Jacques Blanchette wrote a blunt warning to constituents after the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opened floodgates on the swollen Neches River. Blanchette warned residents living near the river, south of B.A. Steinhagen Lake, to evacuate.

"Anyone who chooses to not heed this directive cannot expect to be rescued and should write their social security numbers in permanent marker on their arm so their bodies can be identified. The loss of life and property is certain," Blanchette wrote on the county's Facebook page.

From the same article, there was also this

On Wednesday, Abbott said that given the sheer number of people and the geographic area affected, he expects the government's aid package "should be far in excess" of the roughly $120 billion allotted for Gulf Coast recovery after Katrina.

Hoping someone can pick up Tacitus' banner from Katrina and explain why Houston should just be closed down and moved to somewhere safer. Have at it.

Pardon?

by wj

I had been under the impression that the President's pardon power was pretty much absolute. But once again IANAL raises its interesting head.

After his Presidential pardon, Joe Arpaio's lawyers naturally filed a petition with the court to have his conviction vacated. But the Arizona Republic reports that, rather than just doing so, the judge has decided to hear oral arguments before acting on the petition.

It seems that there is a legal theory (see this) that the pardon power under Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution may not be quite absolute after all:

While the Constitution’s pardon power is broad, it is not unlimited. Like all provisions of the original Constitution of 1787, it is limited by later-enacted amendments, starting with the Bill of Rights. For example, were a president to announce that he planned to pardon all white defendants convicted of a certain crime but not all black defendants, that would conflict with the Fourteenth Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause.

Similarly, issuance of a pardon that violates the Fifth Amendment’s Due Process Clause is also suspect. Under the Due Process Clause, no one in the United States (citizen or otherwise) may “be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.” But for due process and judicial review to function, courts must be able to restrain government officials. Due process requires that, when a government official is found by a court to be violating individuals’ constitutional rights, the court can issue effective relief (such as an injunction) ordering the official to cease this unconstitutional conduct. And for an injunction to be effective, there must be a penalty for violation of the injunction—principally, contempt of court.

I have to say that, to this non-lawyer, the argument makes some sense. But that may just be because I would like it to be true. Certainly the implications for the Russia investigation are profound....

Houston, Flint, New Orleans -- Libertarian Heaven?

by wj

The Count said in the previous thread:

Watch local Texas municipalities try to implement more rational land use and building code policies and then see how vermin libertarian republican right wing crypto christian fascists in the Governor's Manse and in the State House deprive their local rights and thwart all improvement.

And then, moments after I read that, I came across this from the Economist:

Pre-trial hearings loom for the former emergency manager and the director of public works of Flint, Michigan. Both have been charged with involuntary manslaughter over their roles in a public-health scandal. The nearly bankrupt Midwestern city had switched to a cheaper water source, the Flint river. Officials repeatedly dismissed complaints by residents (many of whom are poor and black) about the brownish, smelly water that came from their taps. Flint did not treat the river water with an anti-corrosion chemical; when pumped through ageing pipes it exposed the lead tubes beneath, allowing the metal to leach into drinking water. Babies in particular suffer from exposure to lead, which can lead to learning disorders, hearing loss, aggressive behaviour, anaemia, kidney damage and lowered IQ. As many as 9,000 children may have been affected.

Meanwhile, in New Orleans, 3 of the 5 generators which power their pumps are down. And over 10% of those pumps are currently down for maintenance, here in the height of hurricane season. In a city which is almost entirely below the level of the Mississippi Riven that flows thru town, not to mention below sea level.

Ever notice how dedicated libertarians always seem to be people who a) can afford to live in places which don't have these problems, and b) generally do? While insisting that their philosophy be applied to the rest of the world, whether the rest of the world wants it or not.

E Day

by Doctor Science

I'm spending E-Day in Connecticut, where there weather is decent but the eclipse only so-so. I am so consumed with envy for totality-watchers (including Mr Dr Science, who's road-tripping to NC) I've been dreaming I was one of you. The other night I dreamed I was trying to map the totality path through Block Island – because it was a dream the path was very wiggly, though even dreaming I thought that seemed fishy. Woke up and spent a moment wondering if we could drive down. Crushed to realize it wasn't real.

Tell me about it! Share your experience! NASA has many resources and links, with livestreams starting soon.

Eclipse by Valencian painter Enrique Simonet. Shows the solar eclipse of August 30, 1905, visible from Spain.

Lost in the Noise -- Weekend Open Thread

by wj

It can be all too easy, it the flood of stuff happening these days, to overlook something which would be stunning in other times. I wonder what all there might be....

For example, consider these tweets from last week:

Events in Charlottesville unacceptable & musnt be tolerated @USNavy forever stands against intolerance & hatred...
-- Admiral John Richardson, Chief of Naval Operations

No place for racial hatred or extremism in @USMC. Our core values of Honor, Courage, and Commitment frame the way Marines live and act.
-- General Robert Neller, Commandant of the Marine Corps

The Army doesn't tolerate racism, extremism, or hatred in our ranks. It's against our Values and everything we've stood for since 1775.
-- General Mark Milley, Army Chief of Staff

I stand with my fellow service chiefs in saying we're always stronger together-it's who we are as #Airmen.
-- General Dave Goldfein, Air Force Chief of Staff

I stand with my fellow Joint Chiefs in condemning racism, extremism & hatred. Our diversity is our strength.
-- General Joseph Lengyel, Chief of the National Guard Bureau

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs was traveling (in Beijing), and so a bit late to the party. But he weighed in as well:

I can absolutely and unambiguously tell you there is no place -- no place -- for racism and bigotry in the U.S. military or in the United States as a whole.
-- General Joe Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs

Let's think about that for just a second.  Every single one of the Joint Chiefs came out and rejected the comments of the President of the United States. They didn't denounce their commander-in-chief by name, of course, which they shouldn't -- that would cross the line into insubordination. But there is absolutely no question what occasioned their statements.

I simply cannot remember a time when the leaders of the military, any of them, let alone all of them, stood up immediately and did something like this. Any other time, it would have been both headline news across the country and occasioned a huge uproar -- not to mention the individual in question being fired instantly. This week? It did get mentioned, but it was a one day wonder at most. The times we live in!

What else has happened in the last week that would, in more normal times, have gotten big mention?

Will no one think of the poor racists?

by Ugh

It's 2017, do you know where your neo-Nazis are America?  

Meanwhile, the NYTimes is showing us their terrific editorial balance on the issue by letting Erick Fncking Erickson write an op-ed on yesterday's events. Erick. Fncking. Erickson.  Not gonna link.

Both sides, people, both sides. 

U! S! A!

Jesus.

Open Thread. 

The Bandwagon

by JanieM

bobbyp in the electric cars thread:

For some strange reason, I found myself re-reading some of this thread.

Hint hint?

Here's an open thread, with a prompt for a possible topic very much off the top of my head:

A bunch of candidates have already declared that they're running to replace Paul LePage as governor of Maine next year. So far there are seven Democrats, one officially declared Republican (with Susan Collins generating rumors but making nothing official so far), a Libertarian, and a couple of Greens.

Off the top of my head, the big Democratic field worries me.  Or rather, I'm glad to see a big field, but I wish there was a way to winnow it down in stages instead of all at once.  I would like to see two or three strong contenders emerge and battle it out, and I suppose that could happen if some of the lesser lights drop out well before the primary.  But history doesn't make me optimistic in that regard; LePage won both his terms running against Democrats (neither the strongest of candidates IMHO) and an independent with a big ego who wouldn't get out of the way no matter how low his poll numbers went.

Point being: I think a big field and only one vote to choose among them makes it less likely that the "best" candidate (by whatever definition) will emerge.

I'm interested more in what people think about the general proposition than in assessments of Maine's situation in particular. 

But it's an open thread, so … as you like it.

Re-re-re-re-reading

by JanieM

In 1966, the summer I was sixteen, the Saturday Evening Post published an article entitled, "The Hobbit-foming World of J.R.R. Tolkien." The subheadline called The Lord of the Rings "the hottest-selling item in U.S. campus bookstores."

I would like to think I was drawn in by the description of the story itself, not just by the desire to be cool like the college kids, and subsequent history supports that conceit. I bought and read The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings that summer, then reread the trilogy every year for almost the next fifty, long after I let go of the desire to be cool like the college kids.

It has been a few years since I stopped reading LOTR word for word every single year. Some years I do need the solace of the whole thing; usually this happens in the winter. Other years it's enough to read scattered bits, some chosen at random, some deliberately.

"I will diminish, and go into the West, and remain Galadriel…"

But I really sat down to write about rereading. ....More below the fold.

Electric Cars – Weekend Open Thread

by wj

Friday, Nissan and Mazda announced that they would work together to develop electric vehicle technologies. work together to develop electric vehicle technologies. And to build a $1.6 billion assembly plant in the U.S., which will have a capacity to produce 300,000 cars a year and provide jobs for about 4,000 people. However,

the moves by the car industry and some European governments contrast with President Trump's policies. Trump proposed weakening Obama-era fuel regulations, which would remove one of the incentives for electric cars. Instead, analysts say the United States should consider taking steps toward encouraging electric vehicle usage and production, to not miss out on business opportunities on the global market.

It’s one thing to have a national industrial policy. But whether you favor that or not, it seems daft to have one which will visibly damage one of your nation’s industries. Although perhaps, if you are allergic to actual reality-based facts, it might make a kind of sense.

P.S. I wonder if the fact that Tesla, American’s primary electric car manufacturer, is based in California is a factor….