A report from Georgia’s 6th

by chmatl

Hello, Obsidian Wingers! This is chmatl. LJ very graciously asked if I’d like to write a post on the upcoming special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District to replace Tom Price. I thought I’d fill you all in on the situation on the ground moving toward the election.

A little background – the 6th Congressional district comprises parts of Cobb, Fulton, and Dekalb counties. These are suburban Atlanta counties and mostly middle to upper middle class, especially Cobb and Fulton. GA-06 is considered a Red district, and has been represented by Tom Price since 2005. Tom Price won his re-election bid by 24%. Interestingly, however, Donald Trump won the district by only 1.5% points due to a large number of Republican crossover votes for Clinton in the presidential race. Trump’s slim margin of victory has made Democrats here somewhat optimistic that they can capture Price’s seat. The hope is to turn the race into a referendum on the Trump presidency, and it is considered by many Democrats around the country to be a test case for the #Resist movement.

There are 18 candidates running. Among these are 11 Republicans, including the now-infamous Karen Handel (the Susan G. Komen Foundation head who tried to revoke the foundation’s financial support for Planned Parenthood and essentially got fired), and Judson Hill, who is looking for a promotion from state Senator to U.S. Congressman; and five Democrats, among them Jon Ossoff, whose profile has risen considerably since he entered the race, and who is the leading Democratic candidate. There are also two Independents running, but their polling totals are negligible. They will likely have no effect on the outcome of the election. Hill has the endorsements of Newt Gingrich and Marco Rubio, while Ossoff has been endorsed by John Lewis, whom you know, and Hank Johnson, who represents Georgia’s 4th Congressional District (basically the parts of Atlanta that Lewis doesn’t represent).

The special election is non-partisan, which means there will be no Primary race, so all the candidates are running head-to-head. The threshold for winning without a run-off is 50% + 1. Common sense would tell you there’s a strong likelihood that no candidate in such a crowded field will cross that line.
Here’s a snapshot of the most recent polling:

March 2 – 3 (Trafalgar Group):
Ossoff (D) – 18.3%
Handel (R) – 17.98%
Bob Gray (R) – 13.42%
Judson Hill (R) – 7.98%
Also rans, with 2% or less.

February 17 – 18 (Clout Research):
Ossoff – 31.7%
Handel (R) – 24.9%
Gray (R) – 10.6%
Hill (R) – 9.2%
Also rans, again, with 2% or less.

The margins of error are +/-4.5% for the Trafalgar poll and +/-3.7% for Clout Research. Sample sizes are 450 and 694 respectively.

So that’s the current state of the race. You don’t need me to draw your inferences from this data. But I will say I’m thrilled that Judson Hill seems to have very little chance of making it through to the run-off. Anyone who gets an endorsement from Newt Gingrich is an SOB – if you need proof of that, just remember that Gingrich was on Team Trump during the presidential campaign.

A few observations about Democratic efforts to turn this red district blue:

First, Indivisible Georgia is heavily involved in public awareness and efforts to get out the vote. I got drawn in to canvassing because of a young woman who is my neighbor. She took the initiative to join Indivisible GA – 6th District and attend a training class on canvassing. Then she got out to actually do the work. She and I are part of a large army of regular folks who are involved in Indivisible Georgia’s work to give a liberal Democrat the best possible chance to win this upcoming election.

Second, Indivisible Georgia has done an outstanding job as a top-down organization. They do the initial training, generate the lists of “Leans Democrat/Strong Democrat” voters, which we use for canvassing/phone-banking, do follow-up training as needed, and direct a couple hundred volunteers’ efforts. They host candidate forums, provide publicity for direct action events (mostly through Facebook, Meetup and Slack) and town hall meetings, and are the face of the #Resist movement here in Georgia.

Third, and this is my personal story, I have been energized by being involved in the effort not just to elect a Democrat for Price’s old seat, but to build a real, sustainable, grassroots movement to turn GA-06 Blue. The Democratic Party in Cobb County (where I live) and more broadly the 6th district have been completely ineffectual for the entire time I’ve lived here (since 1992). New leadership and the disaster that is the Trump presidency have definitely changed that.

Immediately after the election I felt anger and hopelessness. Those intense feelings have abated, but I really needed a way to deal with my continuing frustration and fear that I could do nothing to change things. Working toward a worthwhile goal has been the perfect vehicle for getting me out of the funk I was in. The people I’ve met canvassing for the most part have been thrilled, just as I was, to have an actual DEMOCRAT show up at their door. Politics in this area have been so thoroughly dominated by conservative Republicans that it’s easy to feel like you’re alone if you’re a liberal Democrat.

I know many of you are involved in activism already. And I also know that many of you live in safely blue areas. But if you, like me, live in a place where your views – about politics generally and Trump in particular – are outside the mainstream, hook up with your local Indivisible group and hit the streets to make a difference. There’s a job for everybody, and I promise you’ll feel better working for change.

Comments

[sapient]

I am so happy that you posted this, chmatl! I live in Virginia, which is very tenuously and recently blue, at least in statewide elections. We are heavily gerrymandered, and our governor's race is this year (we have some kind of an election every year). The results of our gubernatorial race will decide what happens to gerrymandering in the future. It's deeply important.

John Lewis is a hero. I called his office before the inauguration, thanking him for calling bs on Donald Trump as a legitimate president. His staff member was so wonderful - I felt like living in that phone call, but I hung up first, because I didn't want to be a nuisance.

I've kicked in for Ossoff (very modestly), and now will put in some more. It's so hard to keep up day to day resistance momentum, but this is something we can all do.

Thank you for this!

[Girl from the North Country]

Terrific post, chmatl, and terrific work you are doing. I am so pleased that you are feeling better as a result, and I can only hope that your experience is being replicated all around the country. Vive la resistance!

[chmatl]

Thanks for your kind words, sapient and GFtNC!

I've also kicked in a little money for Ossoff, though he hardly needs it. He's got quite a war chest - north of $2 million last I checked.

He's an interesting guy - young, smart, articulate, and attractive. Also unmarried, though he does have a girlfriend.

The local Republican party has an ad going after him for dressing as Han Solo at some party when he was in college. No doubt the old people who constitute a big part of their local base will shake their heads and scoff at this. They largely missed the Star Wars phenomenon. But people my age (54) and several years on either side of me will think it's cool. Even the youngs (including my own children) will find it charming, since they're having their own Star Wars moment with the reboot.

I've already reminded my daughter, who is 20 and away at the University of Georgia, to request her absentee ballot. She and every last one of her friends are liberal Democrats and are the future core voters in this district. I have great hope that they will help to turn this district blue.

[liberal japonicus]

chmatl, sapient mentioned John Lewis, how about the African American demographic in Georgia and its relation with Indivisible? From my own experiences in the South, one reason that Republicans have been able to keep such a hold is that they have been able to highlight divisions between the groups so that there is not a lot of communication and trust. I have a sad feeling that, while John Lewis gets standing ovations when he walks thru National Airport

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/24/politics/john-lewis-dca/

like Jesus says, a prophet is never honored in his hometown...

[wonkie]

Thank you! I have been following fron afar--Washington state. I am making small weekly donatoions thorugh Act Blue and promoting thie race on Facebook and with my local and national reisstance groups. I post his fundraisers to four groups almost daily.

[chmatl]

LJ, Indivisible in my area is mostly dominated by white Liberals, but looking through the various websites/meetups/facebook groups I'm a part of, there are a number of very active African Americans. In my own neighborhood, when we were canvassing, we never mentioned Indivisible, but rather the local Democratic party. We got fantastic response from everyone, but especially African Americans, just based on identifying as Democrats.

I can't really speak to the relationship between Indivisible and the African American community outside the metro Atlanta area. I would be surprised if Indivisible has any presence in rural GA, where there are large groups of African Americans in the small to medium towns and cities.

Places like Savannah, Macon, and Columbus (with roughly 100,000-plus residents) all have Indivisible groups and also large African American populations. I took a look at their Indivisible Facebook groups and, with the exception of Savannah, the member pics were almost entirely of white folks. Savannah's group is much more diverse and younger, probably because of the presence of Savannah College of Art and Design.

Since I've just recently gotten involved in local grassroots activism, I don't know much about the history of the white/black divide in party politics. I honestly don't see much evidence of outreach from Indivisible GA-06 to local African American organizations. The various events they've hosted have taken place in very white, pretty much upscale areas.

[chmatl]

Hmm, I think I've just experienced the "my comment got eaten" phenomenon.

Let me try again -

Wonkie, that's fantastic! I'm continually amazed at how much attention and support this race is getting from people outside the area.

Thank you for your support!

[Shane]

Good on ya, chmatl! Hope all your hard work pays off. And I know it will in terms of organisation and attention even if your candidate doesn't get the seat.

For others, even if you live in safely blue areas, still very much worth calling your reps to encourage them or to push them to be active. Or to replace them with better people.

And there's almost certainly swing seats near you that want volunteers.

[chmatl]

Thanks, Shane. Yes, I'd really like Ossoff to win the election. Longer term, though, building the infrastructure to get Democrats to the polls in other than Presidential elections is the more significant part of these efforts.

[Bill R]

Great Post-rooting for Ossoff. Perhaps I missed it in the post, but what is the actual voting date?

[cleek_with_a_fake_beard]

speaking of liberal voting post-Trump, Sam Bee is not impressed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm6CnP8CsCw

[Girl from the North Country]

Gosh cleek, that's depressing. No wonder sapient keeps beating the drum for more active opposition, if the opposition is not getting out to vote. Or have I (from ignorance) missed something?

[cleek_with_a_fake_beard]

depressing, but completely typical.

[chmatl]

Bill R - the first round is April 18th. Can't believe I left that important tidbit out, but I did! Thanks for asking.

[chmatl]

Yes, cleek, that's hugely disappointing. We'll have to see how turnout goes in the April 18th election, but I can assure you that for Democrat activists in GA-06, GOTV efforts are their first priority.

[Priest]

As a resident of the dystopian Hell-hole that is the 5th district I can add some slightly-informed thoughts about what shape I think this race will take. Price's re-election margin was as an incumbent against effectively a token and marginally funded candidate. Ossoff making the run-off seems fairly likely, absent pre-election dropouts/endorsements of Handel (which strikes me as highly unlikely). While Handel has some history/baggage, the sex dynamics will be reversed from the general election, so I expect most of the normally R-voting women in the district who voted for Clinton instead of the pussy-grabber will revert to their usual voting habits. Unless Trump creates so much chaos and disaster to strongly push this election to a Trump yes/no referendum, I see Ossoff losing the June run-off by 8-12 points.

This in no way is meant to discourage the efforts that chmatl and so many others are making. Building the voter contacts and infrastructure and cultivating attractive candidates is vitally necessary. There were too many potentially competitive House districts where Rs ran unopposed, or practically so in 2016. The Democrats need to strengthen local organization and be able to present credible candidates to be able to take full advantage of a wave election. This special election is the first step on the road, not a destination.