Your Superduper Tuesday Open Thread of Intrigue

by Ugh

Well.  This primary season is turning out to be a touch different than those prior.  Polls close in all but Alaska/Wyoming by 9pm Eastern, at which point we may find out if the voters have given us the perfect gift for this Presidential election year:  8 months of Trump vs. Hillary!  It's almost to much to wish for.  Alternatively, we may have to wait two more weeks to find out.

Ugh's prediction:  Trump wins all but Texas, which goes to Cruz providing him with objective cover to stay in the race (as opposed to the cover provided by his own ego), and Rubio collects a bunch of seconds and thirds, cementing him as....something, but whatever it is he becomes he stays in the race too because gee willikers why not he's got the ca$h and otherwise he is out of a job!  

Hillary sweeps, or wins enough to effectively end the Democratic race (Bernie will probably stay in for two more weeks anyway).

What say you?  

Also, too, Trump is a con man!  Now you have to vote for Rubio.  Or something.

UPDATE: Amusing. 

Comments

[bobbyp]

If the republican party was run like a business, it would be seeking protection in intellectual bankruptcy.

[Ugh]

I've been poking around Rubio's campaign website and it's just stunning. And the effing press thinks Sanders is promising Unicorns and Rainbows.

[cleek]

HRC isn't going to get VT, and OK is looking close. but she should get the rest, IIRC.

[Countme-In]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/black-students-removed-trump-rally-georgia

[Ugh]

Good point on VT, of course it's Sanders home state and if he can't win there then there's no point. Will see if the same applies to Rubio should he lose Florida in two weeks.

8 hours until the first polls close! I'm so excited I might cry and tear my hair out (if I had any).

[Ugh]

It's their own fault Count, showing up at a Trump rally while black. They should have chosen a different approach to showing up at a Trump rally, disguised in sheets perhaps.

[hairshirthedonist]

My mental image of Ugh is ruined. I've always pictured someone along the lines of, say, John Stamos, circa 1991, with thick, black, shiny, flowing hair.

[Countme-In]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/farrakhan-trump-money-jewish-groups

Farrakhan should be showing up armed big time, and I mean with big f&cking Republican-style NRA weaponry, to support the black students thrown out of Trump's presence for ... standing while black.

But, haters recognize their kindred haters, so it's the season for the gathering of all the hateful, resentful conservative filth and vermin of all stripes in America under the big flammable tent of the Republican Party.

How many more minutes do we have to wait for ISIS to declare it's endorsement of Trump?

The same time as Marco Rubio accepts Trump's invite to be Vice President?

The Confederate Sessions, the KKK, Farrakhan, the Tea Party, The Republican Party all in one place at one time.

These people hate everyone and everything.

The only effective antidote is to hate them back on their terms, with their weapons, but exponentially and finally so.

The only professional Republican politicians and right-wing media types who oppose Trump are those who don't believe he will adhere bullet point by bullet point to the Republican domestic, nationalist murder policies and their international war agenda.

THEY think he's a liberal.

[Ugh]

My mental image of Ugh is ruined. I've always pictured someone along the lines of, say, John Stamos, circa 1991, with thick, black, shiny, flowing hair.

LOL

[Countme-In]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/andrean-high-school-basketball-border-wall-trump-chants

I don't believe an armed society can remain a polite society for very much longer.

[Countme-In]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/tucker-carlson-laura-ingraham-romney-kkk

The final sides are being chosen before the Second violent American Civil War commences.

Don't get caught on the middle, because the ascendant far Right in this country will f*cking kill you.

[Ugh]

Heh, indeed.

"It’s like Dr. Strangelove,” said a tip-top Republican who is closely aligned with the GOP establishment and supported Chris Christie until he dropped out. “People are saying, ‘I’m not gonna tell my friends and family I’m voting for Trump,’ but then they’re pulling the trigger for Trump. I might as well be like Slim Pickens at the end of the movie and just ride the atomic bomb down and see what happens."

[Countme-In]

bobbyp wrote:

"If the republican party was run like a business, it would be seeking protection in intellectual bankruptcy."

Here's the way the Right wants the business of the country run, courtesy of those in Wall Street finance:

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/mount-st-mary-glock-bunnies/

Some want guns on campus.

I'm beginning to agree, especially on those campuses run by conservatives who threaten to kill underperforming students with a bullet to the head.

You know, impressionable young people many times are extremely literal-minded and don't get the whole higher-order metaphor mongering.

But they should carry anyway, don't you think.

[wj]

If the republican party was run like a business

Except that, for all its enthusiasm for business in the abstract, it is run nothing like one.

The problem the GOP has at the moment is that they rewrote the rules after 2012. And they are now finding all the unintended consequences of those changes. (We can argue seperately about whether the results were foreseeable or not.)

There is a reason why any business, when rolling out changes, does so gradually. New products are tested in a few markets. New software goes up on test systems first. Etc. It's how you catch bugs that weren't obvious until someone actually tried to use the new thing under real-world conditions.

Instead, the GOP assumed that they knew what the future would hold, and went all-in on the first hand. Occasionally, you can get lucky with that; occasionally the roulette wheel will come up double 0 twice in a row for you, too. But mostly, it's a good way to go down in flames.

[russell]

The thought I keep having, consistently and repeatedly, as the election year progresses, is:

Yikes.

[CharlesWT]

“People are saying, ‘I’m not gonna tell my friends and family I’m voting for Trump,’ but then they’re pulling the trigger for Trump.

Preference falsification

How Tyrannies Implode

[Ugh]

This Yglesias piece is pretty good, although I think he's trying a little to hard to fit everything into "THIS" is what is driving the nomination race generally.

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11135756/donald-trump-nationalism

Ouch:

Marco Rubio is the perfect foil

Against this populist-nationalist insurgency, the Republican establishment has chosen as its champion literally the single human being in all of conservative politics least suited to co-opting the sentiments of Trumpism.

[Ugh]

This is decidedly scarier, and much much longer, than Yglesias.

The rise of American authoritarianism
...
Their book concluded that the GOP, by positioning itself as the party of traditional values and law and order, had unknowingly attracted what would turn out to be a vast and previously bipartisan population of Americans with authoritarian tendencies.
...
Authoritarians are thought to express much deeper fears than the rest of the electorate, to seek the imposition of order where they perceive dangerous change, and to desire a strong leader who will defeat those fears with force. They would thus seek a candidate who promised these things. And the extreme nature of authoritarians' fears, and of their desire to challenge threats with force, would lead them toward a candidate whose temperament was totally unlike anything we usually see in American politics — and whose policies went far beyond the acceptable norms.

A candidate like Donald Trump.
...
For years now, before anyone thought a person like Donald Trump could possibly lead a presidential primary, a small but respected niche of academic research has been laboring over a question, part political science and part psychology, that had captivated political scientists since the rise of the Nazis.

How do people come to adopt, in such large numbers and so rapidly, extreme political views that seem to coincide with fear of minorities and with the desire for a strongman leader?

Whee.

[Countme-In]

"Yikes"

In 1933 Germany, I believe the words used were "Huch!", perhaps "Pfui!", maybe "Ach du Schande!"

More terribly and pointlessly of course: "Oyvey!"

The Spanish for "Yikes" is "Uff". "exclamación que expresa" or "su conmoción y" might work in a pinch.

What should sound like "Yikes" to an American insured through an Obamacare exchange and just now entering remission from Stage 4 cancer is whatever the extended noise an automatic weapon with a large clip makes when it is employed in the service of patriotism.

As for Mexico, when the first brick of Trump's Wall is mortared in place, The President of Mexico should invite Vlad Putin to a summit in a border town, where a treaty between Russia and Mexico will be signed stipulating the positioning of Russian ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads and anti-aircraft surface to air missiles along the length of the Border.

Canada should do the same.

[wj]

There is the interesting question: When, and from whom, will we hear "Mr Trump, tear down this wall!"

And will anyone on the right notice the irony?

[Countme-In]

No.

[novakant]

Whee

Indeed - the scariest thing in this article is the fact that it's a phenomenon completely independent of Trump, he's just exploiting it.

The reptile brain is riding high again: look at Hungary, Poland, Germany, even Denmark! what on earth?

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/03/10/liberal-harsh-denmark/

Humanism is over, or so it seems...

[Ugh]

Paul Ryan: “This party does not prey on people’s prejudices,” Ryan told reporters at the weekly House GOP leadership news conference.

No reports of being laughed out of the room. Or chased out with pitchforks FTM.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/03/01/paul-ryan-rebukes-trumps-remarks-on-kkk-david-duke/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_power-ryan-1247pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

[Nigel]

The establishment begins to grapple with the rather unappealing possibility of a Trump presidency:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/01/larry-summers-donald-trump-is-a-serious-threat-to-american-democracy/

And while unlikely, it is a possibility.

[Priest]

Denouncing the KKK makes you a liberal?

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/tucker-carlson-laura-ingraham-romney-kkk

[wj]

I especially like the "rats jumping onto a sinking ship" comment.

But seriously, if you have to refuse to denounce the KKK in order to be a conservative, there simply aren't going to be enough conservatives (on that definition) to win a national election. No matter how out-there the alternative is.

[Ugh]

Sounds like Ribes might make VA close.

[Matt McIrvin]

So far, the polls haven't yuuuuugely undercounted Trump's vote share in the primaries. They've been pretty much on (the biggest miss was underestimating Hillary Clinton in SC).

Which makes me think the specter of a Bradley-like shy-Trumper effect is overstated.

[Countme-In]

"Denouncing the KKK makes you a liberal?"

The base, as represented by Carlson, Ingraham and company (both great fascist buds with Dinesh D'Souza) grew up seething over liberal political correctness that disallowed them the use the words nigger, kike, fag, wetback, feminazi, etc, in everyday discourse, including on the airwaves.

Understand who these vermin filth are and who they always have been.

[Countme-In]

And, Paul Ryan will vote for Trump.

A match of pigf*cking murderers made in Hell.

They will kill.

[Matt McIrvin]

Rubio seems to be mildly overperforming his poll numbers, especially in Virginia. It's not enough to win him a lot of delegates, though.

[Countme-In]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/01/how-breitbart-unleashes-hate-mobs-to-threaten-dox-and-troll-trump-critics.html

For now they are hating and threatening their own with violence.

See the threats against Erickson and his family, who has threatened plenty enough of his enemies in the past, so he deserves every f*cking thing that happens to him.

If Breitbart and company were sending their brownshirts to threaten and harass liberals where they live, Erickson would be sucking Breitbart's dick, he'd be so on board.

But, for now, he's a RINO. That goes for Moe Lane too. F"ck off, Moe.

But once the dust settles in the republican primaries, all of these filth will join together to go after liberals of all stripes.

It will be the final rhetorical flourish of Republican hate before unbelievable violence erupts.

[Matt McIrvin]

Massachusetts Dem primary is very close, but no precincts in Suffolk County have reported yet.

[Ugh]

Ruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuubioooooooooooooooo!

Networks/AP calling Virginia for Trump.

[cleek]

See the threats against Erickson and his family,

heckofa job, Obama.

[Nigel]

Christie seems to have become Trump's spokesperson.
How demeaning is that ?

Time to call peak Trump ?

And Rubio seems to have done just well enough to cling on - locked in a death grip with Cruz for the prize of finishing second to the Trump win they are enabling. An all round toxic mess.

I have decided I like Vermont, though.
And Phish Food too. The state should get some sort of recognition for services to civilisation.

[Nigel]

before unbelievable violence erupts.

No, it won't.
Clinton will (almost certainly) win, and everyone will go back home to cling to their guns and... etc.

[Ugh]

Rubio is staying in the race to save the United States of America from the twin scourges of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton!! He promises to win a state primary soon....

(I guess he still has a chance tonight)

[Ugh]

As sung by The Establishment:

There's this guy that's been on my mind
All the time, Rurrubio oh oh
Now he don't even know my name
But I think he likes me just the same
Rurrubio oh oh

Oh if he called me I'd be there
I'd come running anywhere
He's all I need, all my life
I feel so good if I just say the word
Rurrubio, just say the word
Oh Rurrubio

I guess that doesn't quite work.

[Nigel]

Kaiser Chiefs' Ruby just about does, though ?

[hairshirthedonist]

A Message to You, Ruby

Stop your messin' around
Better think of your future...

[Nigel]

Goodbye Ruby Tuesday....

[Nigel]

And, of course, SuperTrump's 'Ruby's on a train to nowhere'....
(sic)

[Ugh]

He won Minnesota! He's the clear front runner!!!!

As always, Josh Marshall:

"Marco Rubio has now officially won a state: Minnesota, which holds a caucus. The discussion of the win on the cable networks though gives a sense of how much the image of his campaign is calcifying into a metaphor for humiliating defeat. On the cable nets, the announcement was treated with a mix of amused surprise and the sort of fulsome pride grandparents show when a toddler says their first word."

Ouch.

[Countme-In]

https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/gop-trump-blame-circle-toles.gif

[Marty]

Delegate count Today:
Trump 285
Cruz 161
Rubio 87

Delegates left 1880

I hope Trump actually believes he has it locked up.

[cleek]

Delegates left 1880

1,237 needed for nomination.

[sapient]

Clinton will (almost certainly) win, and everyone will go back home to cling to their guns and... etc.

I believe, and hope, that you're right for this election. My worry is that the Republican Congress is not going to change, therefore nothing will get better for middle class Americans. The next decade is going to be rough unless Americans catch on to the urgent need for regime change in Congress.

[hairshirthedonist]

What would be interesting to see is the latest theories about Trump exposing the disconnect between voters and the GOP as free-market ideology is concerned coming into play in congressional races. Imagine Tea Party types spending a lot more time railing against big banks and corporations and other moneyed interests fixing the system instead of bitching about tax rates they'd never have to pay anyway. I mean, you'd have to take the good (economic populism) along with the bad (gun-nuttery and xenophobia), but it would at least be something. (You do hear some talk in those quarters about crony capitalism, but I'm not so sure they really understand what that means.)

[Countme-In]

I miss Hilzoy:

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/704663565223878656

Open up her storify and how it all went down.

via Digby

[cleek]

she's as smart as ever.

[Countme-In]

Is there some way to defeat the entire Republican Party and get rid of Debbie Wasserman Schultz too:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/debbie-wasserman-schultz-paylenders-cfpb_us_56d4ce38e4b03260bf77e8fc

[hairshirthedonist]

1,237 needed for nomination.

And what's going to suddenly change the trend that is well in evidence at this point? Sure, something could, but there's no particular reason to think something will.

[hairshirthedonist]

What about Hilzoy? I can't get to that twitter link (blocked).

[Ugh]

hilzoy - the GOP has trained its voters not to trust anybody, now including the establishment/incumbents, thus only people they trust are those who "signal" authenticity/trust somehow, which Trump apparently does.

[Ugh]

Reading about Rubes' speech in Miami last night makes me feel like he's a cross between Baghdad Bob and Kevin Bacon screaming at the end of Animal House that "All is well!"

[Ugh]

As usual someone beat me to it.

[Marty]

well, Rubio got a tie in Virginia, won Minnesota, Cruz won three and its only been a week that they have been taking it to Trump. He thought he was winning 9 of 10(and, typically, hinted at winning Texas too where he was spanked), he got 5 and a tie and his first third place. Despite the medias going on about his dominant night, it was really not so much as expected.

That changes the trend. And should have changed the narrative.

[Tony P.]

I can't wait for April 30th. That's when the 2016 White House Correpondents' Dinner will be, with Larry Wilmore hosting. I hope and pray that He, Trump will attend. Whether He does or not, Barack Obama, Master of the Stand-Up Put-Down, is likely to remind the assembled media glitterati of He, Trump's quest for the Holy Birth Certificate -- and if Barack doesn't, Larry surely will.

The Fourth Estate seems to have completely forgotten that He, Trump made his political bones as Birther-in-Chief. They need reminding with a 2x4 upside the head.

--TP

[Countme-In]

I thought the Orcs in "Lord of The Rings" signaled the authenticity of Mordor's intentions.

Hitler was the authentic apotheosis of the victimized, angry, put-upon Will of the German/Aryan people.

Mike Tyson. You can tell he's the authentic item ... after you wake up from the facial reconstruction surgery.

The American Civil War was a manifestation of the long simmering urge for authenticity as a resolution to the central grievance of America.

Odd now though that a Reality Show/WWF celebrity steeped in that very medium of overwrought Inauthenticity should now be the vanguard of Authenticity and its armed, bloody-minded seekers.

By people who believe the Sandy Hook shootings ... the murders of dozens of little kids with military weaponry in a quiet American suburb .. were an inauthentic put-on .... but sit rapt with utter gravity as Andy Kaufmann, head tilted a little to the side and wincing in his neck brace, testifies that yes, that was an authentic pile driver that did this to us, as the clown in a quilt who choreographed the maneuver sits beside him and nods his head threateningly and chews the microphone in a spittle-flecked rage at any outrageous questioning of his inauthenticity.

You know who the Republican base is?

She's the 74-year old crone with the tobacco-stained fingers and smoker's phlegm-rattling cough who has sat in the front row of every studio wrestling match since 1957 cheering for her crotch-bulging palooka and has been told for 60 years that my dear, surely you realize this shit is fake, it's merely showtime, and no one is getting hurt unless one of these out-of shape fay guys pulls a hammy climbing into the ring, but she has kept the faith that her 60 years of fandom have been expended witnessing the authentic brutal thing-in-itself, and now by God, that doubter Andy Kaufmann, that funny boy with the cynical anti-American, but unbeknownst to her, inauthentic snicker got what what was coming to him.

She hopes it hurts.

I've always suspected the world would end in a hail of gunfire and then a looped laugh track filled with nervous medium chuckles as we get a load of what true Evil looks like.

It merely looks like a big pile of horsesh*t.

Enough to fill all of us up so that we are full of it.

And now we are.

[Countme-In]

"And should have changed the narrative."

Besides Trump's stronger perspiration control, tell me one authentic difference between Cruz/Rubio's narrative and Trump's.

[cleek]

remember when Obama supporters pushed and shoved a teen-aged girl because she was the wrong color?

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/king-not-long-killed-trump-rally-article-1.2549868?cid=bitly

[hairshirthedonist]

I think Marty means the media's narrative on the horse race. I'd say if polling weren't what it currently is in the states yet to vote, then maybe there'd be reason to change the narrative. As it stands, not so much. Trump has a large polling lead even in Florida.

[wj]

1,237 needed for nomination.

And what's going to suddenly change the trend that is well in evidence at this point? Sure, something could, but there's no particular reason to think something will.

Of course something will change. The primaries up to this point have mostly divided delegates proportionately. Which is why Rubio and Cruz have as many delegates as they do. The ones from now on will generally be winner-take-all.

Cruz will stay in until the end -- he doesn't care that he can't win; it's the fight he loves. Rubio will stay in if he wins Florida. So Trump can start racking up lots more delegates, even if he only has a bare plurality. (Plus Trump looks to be getting close to a majority in some cases.)

Also if Rubio does not win Florida, the only alternative will appear to be Cruz. For a lot of people, including especially the Republican Senators who have had the dubious pleasure of his company the past few years, that would be a far worse option.

The big question looks to be, how many Republican Senators and Congressmen does a Trump nomination take down? Certainly that is what has them in agony. But there is also some question as to how many Republicans further down the ballot get hurt as well.

[Marty]

hsh, Yes that narrative. I hope that Rubio is not really hanging his hat on Florida. It voted for Obama, and there are tons of independents, but the Republicans are really mostly direct Trump targets, afraid and angry, many of them angry at Rubio. If he does turn Florida that should be considered a game changer, not an expected win.

[Countme-In]

Ah, yes, that's probably Marty's point.

________________________________________

The White House Correspondents' Dinner. I hope the individuals in cleek's link attend the fete.

Maybe Obama will say "Oui, Shosanna" and flick an authentic match:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4P14KKcKF4

[wj]

Newt Gingrich tweets:
"Trump's shift toward inclusiveness, team effort and unity was vitally important He has to build a Reagan like inclusiveness to win this fall"

Well, Newt is partly right. Trump may well become a little less noxious in the coming months. But there is an enormous difference, given where Trump is coming from, between "less noxious" and "a Reagan like inclusiveness".

Has anyone seen anything, anything at all; any time, in Trump's past behavior which would suggest he could change that much? I don't recall such. but then, I'n not a fan of pro wrestling, or other "reality" TV shows, so I may have missed something.

[Ugh]

At this point, this can only turn out badly for the GOP in the Presidential election (not that I'm complaining).

Either (i) Trump wins the nomination outright with a huge fight along the way and a lot of GOP voters/congressmen disowning and hobbling him, thus losing the general; (ii) Rubio or (less likely) Cruz wins in a brokered convention because Trump can't get a majority of delegates, and alienating the Trump supporters in the process and losing the general.

Absent Cruz/Rubio getting a majority of delegates (which seems highly unlikely), perhaps the best case GOP scenario is that one of them manages to overtake Trump in total delegates and then that person gets the nomination at a brokered convention. That would still alienate a lot of Trump voters, but at least it would not feel like the "establishment" snatched it from them in a dirty back room deal, providing potentially some party unity heading into the general election.

But it seems like there will be Trump vilifying for at least 2 more weeks from Dear Marco and Cruz, at which point Trump may have enough delegates to ensure that (ii) is the "worst case" scenario for him.

Of course, Trump could finally say/do something beyond the pale, but I'm hard pressed on what it might be that is within the realm of possibility.

[cleek]

Trump's shift toward inclusiveness, team effort and unity was vitally important

the bigwigs in the GOP establishment are telling Trump exactly which noises he needs to make in order to give them the cover they need to support him.

soon, we'll see it from everyday Republicans.

after that, they'll be united behind him in their battle to keep the WH out of Democratic hands. all that stuff they were saying in Feb? bygones. heat of the battle. just sticking up for their preferred choice. he was never as bad as the liberal media would have you believe, obvs.

[Transcription by a big Hilzoy fan]

(Hilzoy's storify in comment form)

Start with the assumption that no sane person can understand all of policy themselves. And most don’t want to, have jobs, etc. People—everyone—therefore need people they trust to get information from. Journalists, experts, friends, whoever.

The GOP has for a long time been destroying trust in the press, experts, basically everyone people don’t know personally. At the same time, they have been amping up the importance of politics by telling people that people America is being destroyed by Democrats, etc.

So their followers think politics is a matter of insane urgency, but have no one to help them get good info about what to do, because GOP figures have destroyed trust in anyone but them. At the same time, they have stunningly failed to advance the interests of their supporters, or to get things like overturning Roe, etc. It was inevitable at some point that the base would turn on GOP leadership, who have failed both to deliver and to explain why delivery was impossible.

But what to do now? GOP supporters’ capacity to trust anyone else was already destroyed. Thus, it’s almost inevitable that they will rely on signals of authenticity rather than e.g. policy positions. (Recall earlier: no one can understand all of policy alone unless it’s their job. I was a political blogger. I’ve tried.)

Earlier symptoms of the problem: very conservative politicians defeated in primaries because having been elected, they were now “establishment” & thus sellouts who needed a Tea Party challenge. It makes no sense on policy grounds, but makes total sense if signals are what matters. (Note: it’s very bad for a party to demonize politicians. It ensures that politicians who are elected will be seen as corrupt or bad, just because they won.)

Anyways, in a world without trust, gestures are everything. In a world in which GOP leaders have lost trust, they can’t give those gestures. Which leaves the field wide open for Trump. He can’t be bought (ha ha), speaks his mind, etc., etc. He’s one big signal of authenticity. And by destroying trust in everyone who might speak against him, the party has destroyed all paths back to sanity. Who is going to tell voters that Trump’s ideas are nuts and be believed? The MSM? Experts?

The people who might help are either people who have lied to the base, or people they have been convinced are liars or worse. This is entirely the GOP’s own doing. ENTIRELY.

This is one reason (of many) why I never wanted to demonize GOP voters. They need a route back. It’s hard enough without encountering contempt. Note: This is also why I never put stock in polls that say GOP voters actually agree with Democratic priorities. If they actually believed that, say, Obamacare might provide decent health care, they might well support it. But without trust, how will they arrive at that belief? There’s a long, long distance between “policy X would in fact do something that many GOP voters support in abstract” and GOP voters supporting that actual policy after Rush Limbaugh gets through describing it to them. Or even before Limbaugh describes it -- after all, it's a plan hatched by Democrats, and we all know about THEM.

(Michelle C: In fact, without trust, they arrive to the opposite belief even in the face of people benefiting from specific policies.)

[wj]

the bigwigs in the GOP establishment are telling Trump exactly which noises he needs to make in order to give them the cover they need to support him.

But will he notice? Or care?

It seems more likely that they are whistling past the graveyard. They desperately want to believe that he will shift towards (their view of) sanity, once he has the nomination locked up. But that seems like wishful thinking, rather than objective analysis.

[bobbyp]

That changes the trend. And should have changed the narrative.

Marty,

Things can change, that's for sure. But right now, it's looking like Trump. Looking at upcoming primary schedule, if Cruz and/or Rubio don't step up their game (or one of them quit the race), the game will be over after the 15th of this month.

Just Ides of March speculation on my part.

[wj]

it’s very bad for a party to demonize politicians. It ensures that politicians who are elected will be seen as corrupt or bad, just because they won.

Actually, a politician can win and still avoid being seen as hopelessly corrupted. All he has to do is take the Ted Cruz approach. Keep throwing bombs at anyone and everyone. Avoid actually accomplishing anything, but maintain your credibility.

Might even, eventially, convince the base that even signaling is unreliable....

[cleek]

They desperately want to believe that he will shift towards (their view of) sanity

if he doesn't want to change his course even a little bit in order to sail through the mile-wide gates they're putting up now, they will start putting their gates directly in front of him.

if he's the nominee, they will come around. by October, February will be forgotten.

[Countme-In]

"At this can only turn out badly for the GOP in the Presidential election .."

I see no reason for optimism, before or after the election.

Even if the Democrats take the White House in November, the angry armed base loser conservative base, now at 37% of the electorate, up from 27%, will have expended every violent rhetorical gambit at their meager disposal and the only tactics left to turn to will be outright violence and that violence, armed and bloody and perpetrated by the numerous paramilitary wings of the Republican Party, who now feel brazen enough to show up as the public muscle at Republican rallies, will be encouraged by conservative media personalities.

Meanwhile, expect impeachment proceedings to begin in the House, at the very least, against Clinton or Sanders their first day in office.

I expect any calls for bipartisanship and working together from a Democratic President during her/his SOTU next winter, because the American people ... in other words, all of the people the ascendant right-wing filth do not recognize as American .... have spoken, to be audibly shouted down and numerous republican vermin will walk out of the speech.

The nomination of Barack Obama as Supreme Court Justice will result in armed bands of racist Republican filth shooting blacks via drive-bys and then returning to their white suburbs, and like a photographic negative of the 1960s burning their own white suburbs to the ground, but not before lowering the deductibles in their home insurance.

National Forests will be arsoned. Federal employees will be violently assaulted.

These ilk are not going away. The only resolution will be catastrophic because they have promised themselves that logical resolution of that narrative, just like South Carolina in 1861.

The Republican President's first SOTU, on the other hand, whichever rude f*ck killer it turns out to be, will issue ultimatums with the imprimatur declared of Almighty God's Fuck You, while a smirking Paul Ryan sits behind them in the catbird seat masturbating himself between the sticky pages of his paperback copy of Atlas Shrugged.

Democrats in the gallery will be silent, the cowards.

[Ugh]

Actually, a politician can win and still avoid being seen as hopelessly corrupted. All he has to do is take the Ted Cruz approach.

I do like Cruz's Schrödinger's cat approach of being both part of and separate from the Washington "establishment" at the same time (and he certainly doesn't have the "both alive and dead" thing down as well as Dick Cheney, who retired the trophy).

I guess he's just a regular (Princeton and Harvard educated) common Joe.

[Ugh]

Paul Ryan is a hardback man.

[McKinneyTexas]

the bigwigs in the GOP establishment are telling Trump exactly which noises he needs to make in order to give them the cover they need to support him.

soon, we'll see it from everyday Republicans.

after that, they'll be united behind him in their battle to keep the WH out of Democratic hands. all that stuff they were saying in Feb? bygones. heat of the battle. just sticking up for their preferred choice. he was never as bad as the liberal media would have you believe, obvs.

Taking a short break from battling back against the forces of injustice: I can't rule this out.

I think there are two things missing from this conversation.

First, there may be important reasons why Trump is getting pluralities, not majorities, that are not immediately apparent. I spent two evenings last weekend with Tea Party types who are aghast at Trump and, as Texans, know what an arrogant, bridge-burning asshole Cruz is. People here at ObWi, in the punditry and elsewhere severely underestimate the very real concern on the part of a lot of conservatives for the country--not the election, but the country--if Trump gets in. Even though Cruz won TX, he has huge negatives here, and for good reason. It is a mistake to think that people like him. Many do not.

There is a tendency among partisans of any stripe to caricature the opposition. That is a mistake I've made and learned well not to make (at least not unless I am harassing Cleek) here at ObWi. I offer the notion that people you don't agree with on policy points aren't necessarily idiots and can be very well aware of huge problems in their own camp.

Second, Dem voting was down, Repub was up. The private file server may be a political football to folks firmly in H's camp, but if the FBI disagrees, she takes on water by the tank load. Sanders, while very much at home in Progressive corners and the only candidate of either party I'd want to have a drink with, is too far to the left to win. So, the intense examination on Repubs is all well and good. Would that an equally intense and objective examination were taking place on the left (although I do notice articles at Slate and Salon that seem to be aware of H's problems, not Sanders' so much).

Back to it. Y'all have fun.

[Countme-In]

Really, he strikes me as a popup book type.

[Marty]

Second, Dem voting was down, Repub was up.

On a FB post from Texas someone noted that, while standing in a line of 50 waiting to vote, a precinct worker stepped outside and told them that the Democratic line had no wait and they could come to the front. Five people stepped out and went to vote, to mixed comments by the rest of the line.

I meant to go look at turnout numbers.

[Marty]

So I did.

"More than 2.8 million Republican ballots were cast in Texas, approximately double the 2012 Republican primary total of 1.4 million. In the Democratic primary, more than 1.4 million were cast, besting the 2012 totals but falling far short of the 2.8 million Democratic ballots cast in the 2008 primary, when the contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton drew strong interest. The combined turnout for both primaries this year appeared to be nearly as high as the 4.3 million that cast primary ballots in 2008, according to unofficial totals."

[cleek]

there's a pretty fiery debate on the left about HRC's negatives. Sanders' supporters repeat nearly all those things that Republicans dislike about Clinton. lefty blog comment section are full of them. so is my FB feed. it's sometimes hard to tell a Sanders supporter from a Republican, when it comes to attacking HRC - sometimes. it gets easy to tell them apart when they start throwing in stuff about her not being sufficiently liberal, too hawkish, too corporate, etc., etc.; Sanders supporters attack her from the left.

and they've examined her pretty thoroughly. they even have a whole set of strawClintons that they can attack when the real one isn't cooperating.

and, personally, a lot of the (real) criticism of her is hard for me to wave away. so, i just weigh it against her strengths. and so far her strengths are winning.

on the other side of it, i don't see a lot of HRC supporters attacking Sanders for his politics or his personality. Clinton supporters generally seem to be OK with Sanders but think he's a bit too ... err... ambitious. you see a lot of "well, his heart's in the right place, but how on earth does he propose to get it all done?" (which is then countered by accusations of being a corporatist sell-out no-imagination DINO). the disagreements usually come down to accusations of naivete vs accusations of centrism (or worse, Republicanism!), pushing the envelope vs pragmatism, revolution vs incrementalism.

[Countme-In]

Yes , the disparate turnout is a big problem.

Expect this Post Office to be renamed again after Trump is elected:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/gopers-vote-against-maya-angelou-naming

After all, one does need to be mindful of one's constituency:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/james-edwards-trump-press-credentials

[Countme-In]

McTX wrote:

"There is a tendency among partisans of any stripe to caricature the opposition."

I have no idea what you mean.

"That is a mistake I've made and learned well not to make (at least not unless I am harassing Cleek) here at ObWi. I offer the notion that people you don't agree with on policy points aren't necessarily idiots and can be very well aware of huge problems in their own camp."

This may well be true.

We may, however, be in the midst of one of those seminal events wherein the non-idiots of all stripes, including those who step to the very precipice of idiocy and chicken out at the last moment, are outnumbered and swept away by the all-in enthusiastic idiots.

[sapient]

Yes , the disparate turnout is a big problem.

Don't really agree. I think most Democrats like both candidates and would vote for either, so the primary wasn't an urgent matter for them.

[Countme-In]

Good point.

[Countme-In]

way up thread

clown in a "kilt", not "quilt".

Nevermind, don't look.

[Ugh]

Hmmmm... somehow I missed that there is another GOP "Presidential" debate... tomorrow. Whoa.

[Countme-In]

Off-topic, but hell:

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/03/mosul-dam-getting-ready-kill-million-iraqis

Some history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosul_Dam

[russell]

I have decided I like Vermont, though.
And Phish Food too. The state should get some sort of recognition for services to civilisation.

Some, but not too much. Folks in Vermont don't want a lot of people moving there and messing up their good thing.

What worries me about the Super Tuesday results is that I'm not sure Clinton can beat Trump. I actually think Sanders would have a better shot.

We'll see what happens.

[wj]

Sanders, while very much at home in Progressive corners and the only candidate of either party I'd want to have a drink with, is too far to the left to win.

I really wonder about that. If the nominee is Trump, Sanders speaks to the same kind of unhappiness with the established order that Trump does. Which could reduce the urgency of Trump supporters to do something they are not in the habit of (yet) and get out to vote. And the rest of the country, not seeing that as a difference, could well decide that they would rather someone who is not a total loose cannon.

Whereas if someone else is the nominee against Sanders, it will likely be someone who is even further right than Sanders is left. Which kind of reduces the problem. A lot.

[wj]

McK, I realize you are real busy. But do you have a feel for how likely it is that something serious hits Clinton over that e-mail server? "Serious" as in criminal proceedings.

And for everybody else, what do we know about the rules for the Democratic convention? If Clinton were indicted, would delegates who ran on support of her be able to change who they vote for? Or could the Democrats suddenly find themselves stuck with a first ballot vicctory for her?

[Countme-In]

On topic:

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2016_03/for_the_gop_the_day_the_music_1059788.php

I especially like the New Mexico GOP Governor Susan Martinez doubts about Trump. Sounds to me like she would hate to miss the election after-party when Trump is elected.

First off, she won't be invited, but if she's able to crash the thing, SHE'll be thrown off a balcony, probably by a couple of the Palin thugs and assorted white supremacists.

[Countme-In]

I've been thinking about Marty's conclusion that the Republican Party will not be his if Trump is nominated.

Finally, we're within a gnat's eyelash of electing a President who will bring all of us together, especially here, and NOW you're jumping ship?

[Countme-In]

"I actually think Sanders would have a better shot."

This is sinking in.

[Countme-In]

The Texas Republican Party is having a bit of an internal debate, kind of a soul strip-searching:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/robert-morrow-travis-county-gop

[Marty]

"I actually think Sanders would have a better shot."

I doubt it, I'm kind of a tequila guy.

[Countme-In]

Charles Pierce channels Russell from a previous thread in pointing out how nothing has changed, except the jokes aren't as funny as they once were:

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a42614/thomas-jefferson-dick-jokes/

[Michael Cain]

National Forests will be arsoned.

Geez. I mean, I have this lunatic notion that the US gets partitioned in 50 or so years, but don't think it even begins to get talked about seriously for another 25. But this...

Conservative locals aren't about to set those fires, the forests are their grazing, hunting, fishing, hiking, etc. They all know that the consequences of massive burns are not just a disaster for drinking water supplies, but for irrigation supplies as well. I know a boatload of conservatives who will help me string up the arsonists. And if it's a batch of non-Westerners, the locals will suddenly be much more willing to listen to me explain why the time to go our own way is now, not later.

[Countme-In]

Somehow I always go one step too far, even after going ten steps into mid-air.