A Brokered Convention

by wj

Yes, it is still way early, and the Republican convention a long time away. However, the question that is arising is whether it is still possible to stop Trump -- and if so, for how much longer will this be true?

Let us suppose, for the sake of discussion, that nobody actually "stops" Trump. That is, he arrives in Cleveland with a plurality of the convention delegates -- but only a plurality, not a majority. That means, for Trump to get the nomination requires that, after failing to win on the first ballot, he needs to win over at least some of the delegates of other candidates. On the other side, beating Trump for the nomination requires some other candidate to collect almost all of the delegates from the other candidates.

The question becomes: which scenario is more likely. Or, to put it another way, which candidate has made the nastier attacks on the rest of the field. How negative are the delegates on those other candidates who have been trashing their boy?

Comments

[Countme-In]

I'll be very disappointed if that Secret Service agent is not disciplined by Barack Obama.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/chris-morris-tackled-secret-service-trump-rally

[Countme-In]

This is why protestors and the press should arrive at Trump and all other Republican rallies armed to the teeth.

[Ugh]

On Trump being a con man - how, exactly, is he conning people? Here is Rubes again:

Rubio calling his campaign "the most extensive con job in American political history."

If anything, it's Rubio who is running the con, he's just aiming at different people. Cruz is all "I'm an asshole and I like it" and Trump is all "Blargh me strong!" whereas Rubio is trying to pass as some kind of moderate, even though he holds the same policy positions as Cruz which are overall, if anything, to the right of Trump's in substance.

This too:

“Unfortunately today, there are a significant number of our fellow Americans in the Republican Party who have chosen, at least for the moment, to support someone who appeals to their fears and anxieties,”

They've had 50+ years of training from guys just like you Rubes! You're just sorry Trump is better at it.

[Snarki, child of Loki]

"If anything, it's Rubio who is running the con"

Projection; it's what Republicans do best.

[wj]

They've had 50+ years of training from guys just like you Rubes! You're just sorry Trump is better at it.

It's not so much that Trump is better at it. He's just more blatant about it.

[Ugh]

True - it's just that in this case more blatant is also mo' betta.

[Ugh]

Plus I don't think Rubio (or Cruz) could pull it off in the same way Trump is doing, for the same reasons that Rubio's "insults" don't work - it's not their style/personality; or at least it's not Rubio's (Cruz style/personality just sucks all around).

[Ugh]

And Christie is enjoying himself:

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) said Monday he believed the GOP-controlled Senate should hold hearings on President Obama's eventual nominee to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court.

Curiouser and curiouser.

[Ugh]

Hounds of hell, yes:

"If Donald Trump were to ever become the nominee immediately the hounds of hell will descend on him, tear him apart, everything he's ever done from not releasing his taxes to all of his failed business dealings," [Rubio] said on CBS's "Face the Nation." "And Hillary Clinton's going to have a clear shot to the Oval Office."

I would have thought the Hounds of Hell would need to ascend, not descend, but Rubio likely knows better than I on HoH etiquette.

[wj]

I think Rubio is enough of a party man that his real worry is that the Hounds of Hell could descend on the rest of the GOP as well. Losing the white House would be unfortunate. Losing a lot of Senate and House seats, and maybe even a bunch at the state level, would be far more serious.

[Countme-In]

Republican Hounds of Hell descend from on high from the their always forgiving God's HellHound Pound.

How do you think they keep all of we tax and spend liberal libertines from the Gates of Heaven?

Angels with stun guns?

We've been gnawed by the Hounds of Hell since Newt Gingrich got himself a boner dreaming up the back bench stabbings of his colleagues in the 1980s.

Bring em on, Marco, you singular Ghoul of Genhanna!

Are Trump's hounds any worse than the drooling, maniacal, Satanic, sadistic promise you've made to murder 15 million Americans with preexisting conditions on your first day in office, if you show up for work that day?

Trump is like Lucy Ricardo, little Ricky. She's singing the solo during "Babaloo" at the Club in November and you and all of the Fred Mertz conservatives won't know it until you hear the sour notes, which will sound familiar because they sound exactly like the off-key song you've been singing for 40 years.

On topic: Any word lately on ISIS? Seems a minute ago they were chopping my head off in Denver and now what ... did Obama's military options make them lose territory and we can't admit the swarthy one had a plan after all?

It's been a rough couple of years. First, I died of Ebola and then my head was chopped off, both without even leaving my apartment.

Here's what I really think. Trump, by comparison, is making the real murderers in the Republican Party look good by comparison, even to some moderates.

He's like the Joe Pesci character in "Goodfellas". He's taking out the made men. Don't do dat. Christie will be the one who is asked to sweet talk and escort Trump to HIS "Made Man" ceremony in Vinny's garage.

It hadda be done.

[Countme-In]

Gehenna!

Genhanna was Jennifer Aniston's nickname in "Friends".

[Countme-In]

Prediction.

Marco Rubio will accept Trump's offer to be his running mate in November.

Should they win, which they very well could, barring a fortuitous 9.9 earthquake with it's epicenter in Cleveland, Trump will turn to Vice President Rubio the day before they take office in January and say, "Hey kid. I'm little weary from the campaign. My balls are so big, I've thrown my back out. Here's the pen to sign the papers to abolish Obamacare. I know you're a bloodthirsty little f*cker -- I could see it in your eyes, despite the flop sweats -- so I want you to have the honor of killing 15 million Americans on that first day. Show me what you're made of.

Maybe you could do photo-op with a Tea Party hyena drop-kicking a Negro's goiter across the reflecting pond. Something terrific like that.

Go get em, killer."

[Countme-In]

coincidence, dat

https://www.balloon-juice.com/2016/02/29/monday-afternoon-open-thread-funny-not-funny/

[Ugh]

And now Obama has killed Kennedy too! George Kennedy that is.

[Countme-In]

This guy will be in charge of the national birth control policy board during the next Republican Administration:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/pete-nielsen-rape-trauma-prevents-pregnancy

Apparently, there is something called legitimate rape. At least, that's what they called it on prom night at his high school.

None of this mere attempted rape that might lead to a family. It's got to be legitimate to avoid illegitimate children, as opposed to the rabbits that breed in the big cities.

Plus, after everything he said, he admits that he has given a lot of the thought to the matter as a father of five children, which sounds a lot creepy.

"Daddy, what are you thinking about?"

"You just no never mind, Hassie, and for pity's sake quit swishing your tail like that. It gets a man to brainstorming and such."

Also, that he might not have his facts straight.

Also, that he may have been thinking about the livestock he spends lots of time alone with on Federal land.

The Vagina Is Down There Somewherealogues.

Traumatize it and you're home free, home on the range without raping fees.

[Ugh]

Move over Chris Christie:

http://nascar.nbcsports.com/2016/02/29/nascar-chairman-brian-france-drivers-endorse-donald-trump-at-rally/?cid=eref:nbcnews:text

[Countme-In]

I'd like to have NASCAR speed no-limits on the Nation's highways and byways.

This 85 mph regulation sh*t is not what the Founders had in mind when they put mag wheels and overhead hemis in the Constipation.

I'm an American and I'm flooring it without pussified seat belts and if you don't wanna be roadkill, I'd say you ought to step to the shoulder, kids, if you can find it, cause we're cutting those out of the budget.

Anyone up for fully privatized highways with tolls every five miles?

Uber this.

[Nigel]

A pretty right of centre website has some trenchant (and quite interesting) things to say about executive overreach - and it's not Obama that worries them:
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/03/the-presidency-and-the-regulatory-state.html

[Slartibartfast]

brokered (adj): having been rendered even more broken.

[wj]

At this point, i.e. after the Super Tuesday primaries, I can still see the possibility that nobody will arrive at the Republican convention with a majority of the delegates. But it seems most likely, indeed overwhelmingly most likely, that even then Trump ends up with the nomination.

There may be some, perhaps even a lot, of delegates who are committed to "anyone but Trump." But there don't need to be all that many deciding that taking it away from someone with a serious plurality is a bad idea in order to put Trump over the top by the second ballot.