Obsidian Wings

Friday evening musical instrument joke thread

I did want to put up an open thread this week and I again thank Doctor Science for putting up one last week. Friend of the kitty, bc queried:

How do you make a trombone sound like a french horn?

The answer is put your hand in the bell and miss a lot of notes. However to the question

How do you make a french horn sound like a trombone?

The answer is take your hand out of the bell and play with absolutely no class.

Dave Barry pointed to this page of viola jokes and notes that are really big in the orchestra, as is evidenced by the fact that the viola jokes in the full collection have 3 pages, more than any other instrument. I don't know why the following one is my favorite, but it is

What's the difference between a trampoline and a viola?

You take your shoes off when you jump on a trampoline.

So have at it.

disasters, radiation and the Japanese polity

by liberal japonicus

While I said that I was going to open a thread about the nuclear crisis in Japan, I started to try and compile some links and got hopelessly overwhelmed. Reactor design, gamma rays, wind patterns, iodine tablets, cooling ponds, spent fuel rods, MOX, microsieverts versus millisieverts, etc etc. Another problem is that I go to bed, and wake up to face 8 hours of new information from Japan, I just don't think I could do it justice.

Still the alarmist beat goes on. Now CNN is noting that Japan has a 12 mile evacuation but the White House told American citizens should evacuate outside 50 miles and opine how this shows that the Japanese government is keeping information from their citizens. Thinking about the population density, where the f'&%#$k would those Japanese people go? How would they move all those people who may be in hospitals? Where would they be housed? There is gas shortages and rationing, such that my wife thinks I won't be able to get the bus from the international airport at Narita to the domestic hub at Haneda. The US can ask its citizens to move because they are a minority in the population, they are largely young, and they can move somewhere. The population of Fukushima prefecture is about 2 million and I'd estimate that one-third to one half of those live within 50 miles of the nuclear reactor complex. Some of the pictures of people being checked for radiation have the location of Koriyama, 60 miles from the nuclear complex. Given those numbers and the size of the relief effort to the areas struck by the tsunami, how is this supposed to work? Transporters and holodecks? Of course, as we saw in Katrina, In the US, they would tell everyone to evacuate and be shocked that people living below the poverty line had problems getting out of town. But below the fold, I talk about the Japanese group spirit a bit.

till the landslide brings it down

by fiddler

Following up on previous posts (here, here, here, here, and here):

HBGary Federal, Team Themis, Hunton & Williams and the US Chamber of Commerce:

• Aaron Barr, HBGary Federal CEO, who spearheaded the company's attempts to discover the identity of members of Anonymous and whose emails were exposed by Anonymous in return, resigned on Feb. 28. Barr said he wanted to spend more time with his family and recover his reputation. The article linked also points out poor security practices within the company, including a general disregard of the importance of using distinct and complex passwords -- perhaps something else Barr could work on in his spare time, now.

Tell Me How This Ends

by Eric Martin

There has been an increasing chorus of voices urging the US (acting with its allies in NATO, the UN or in tandem with some ad hoc coalition of the willing) to impose a no-fly zone over Libyan airspace, with lawmakers from both parties, as well as foreign leaders, making appeals to implement some variation of such a policy in recent days.

To some extent, this impulse is understandable given the increasingly violent clashes in Libya, with government forces making gains on rebel positions and showing a willingness to use indiscriminate force in populated areas.  

On the other hand, when pondering the involvement of US forces, first and foremost, elected leaders must consider whether such an intervention is in our national interest, and, if so, what can realistically be accomplished and at what costs.  Along those lines, it is essential to establish what the objective of the intervention would be and what future actions will be necessitated/spurred on by the initial decision to intervene militarily. To paraphrase General Petraeus, "Tell me how this ends."

Despite legitimate concerns for civilian casualties, and the potential for atrocities, thus far Qaddafi has been primarily using air power to combat rebel forces within his nation's borders.  The effect of a no-fly zone, then, would be to prevent Qaddafi from being able to use air power in that fight (as well as to safeguard civilians from airborne assaults). 

Thus, even if justified on humanitarian grounds, the no-fly zone would serve the purpose of tilting the battlefield in favor of rebel forces - though some argue that supporting the rebels should be an explicit goal in itself, with the no-fly zone buttressed (or replaced) by arms and other aid provided directly to rebel forces.  Regardless, these outcomes raise several important questions about who we are supporting, to what ends, and to what extent we will be expected to participate in the process.

1. Do we know what the majority of Libyan rebels want and how they envision the future state of Libya in the post-Qaddafi era?  While there is a tendency to view these uprisings, and their participants, through Western-tinted lenses, those Libyans that are involved in the uprising are not monolithic in their outlook, nor are they uniformly pursuing a revolutionary democratic agenda.

Aftershocks

by liberal japonicus

I think that the general outlines of the recent disaster are relatively clear. Ironically, to figure out the history of TiO, which arose from the posts here about Katrina, and I am in awe of how much hilzoy was able to write as the disaster was unfolding. I realize that Katrina was quite different from the earthquake and tsunami, with Katrina unfolding over a longer period of time, as well as the language difference, but still, I start to write something and find myself stuck. However, I'll try to talk about some longer term notions that I think are interesting. I'll put the below the fold

"Fightin' for my Rats!": Teapartiers and the Social Theory of William Tecumseh Sherman

 Guest Post by HK, not by Gary Farber

As the seemingly remote Civil War Sesquicentennial gradually floods into our lives over the next four years, we'll find -- just as those of us who were around for the Centennial did -- that a surprising number of issues from that period which we thought were settled, weren't really settled.

Nowhere is this more striking than in the Teapartiers' cries of "States Rights" -- the great rallying cry of the Lost Cause movement. You have to wonder whether the modern Teapartiers have any better understanding of who they are really fighting for than the the hapless soldiers depicted in that poignant scene from Gettysburg where Union soldier Tom Chamberlain is trying to understand his Confederate captives, right after the battle of Little Round Top:

When Chamberlain asks the soldiers what they are fighting for, one of the Confederates responds that he doesn't care about slavery one way or another.

Instead: "I'm fightin' for my rats!"

Disbelieving, Tom Chamberlain repeats his question. But even more earnestly the Confederate repeats that he is fighting for his "rats." After a surrealistic split second, Chamberlain realizes that the man is saying that he's fighting for his "rights."

But the informed veiwer is left shaking his or her head, No, my poor son. In fact, you are not fighting for your "rats" or even your "rights." What you are truly fighting for is slavery. You are fighting and dying for demagogues who are trying to secure their slave-based wealth.

And the leaders know this very well. Following in line with Confederate Vice President Alexander Stephens's notorious "Cornerstone Speech," the Constitution of every Confederate State mentions its central goal of protecting slavery. And all the so-called property rights are elaborated in relation to that one goal alone. The "rats" of the hapless foot soldiers from the lower classes are a complete fiction.

Similarly, regardless of the "rats" which the foot soldiers of the modern tea party are led to believe they are fighting for, the Koch brothers and their friends know that the real goal of their so-called tea party revolution is protecting and securing their ever-increasing wealth. Michael Moore eexposes how the wealthy are manipulating the poor to do their bidding.

And looking at the right's attacks on collective bargaining, you start to wonder how much the goal might be to re-establish something ever closer to slavery, in which the workers have little to say about their working conditions or compensation.

Fascinatingly, even 150 years ago, William Tecumseh Sherman understood that the same thing was happening to the poor whites of the South. Sherman is a complex individual. As a woman, I'm taken aback by the level of violence he brought into the war. On the other hand, Sherman played a pivotal role in freeing the slaves, and (mostly forgotten) was an exceptionally magnanimous victor in accepting the surrender of Joseph E. Johnston's 89,000 troops, two weeks after the surrender at Appomattox. (Sherman and Johnston became BFF as a result of the terms.) He also deserves more credit in terms of his commitment to provide practical help for the newly freed slaves.

But as relates to the topic at hand, I'm especially impressed by how astutely Sherman analyzed the exploitation of the lower classes of whites by the wealthy plantation owners. At the end of the war, looking to the post-war situation, Sherman wrote a particularly insightful letter to Secretary of War Henry Halleck, predicting the future social relations in the South:

Second. The smaller farmers, mechanics, merchants, and laborers. This class will probably number three-quarters of the whole; have, in fact, no real interest in the establishment of a Southern Confederacy, and have been led or driven into war on the false theory that they were to be benefited somehow—they knew not how.

They are essentially tired of the war, and would slink back home if they could. These are the real tiers etat of the South, and are hardly worthy a thought; for they swerve to and fro according to events which they do not comprehend or attempt to shape.

When the time for reconstruction comes, they will want the old political system of caucuses, Legislatures, etc., to amuse them and make them believe they are real sovereigns; but in all things they will follow blindly the lead of the planters. The Southern politicians, who understand this class, use them as the French do their masses—seemingly consult their prejudices, while they make their orders and enforce them.

As William Faulkner said, "The past is never dead. It's not even past."

Guest Post by HK, not by Gary Farber

Self-Evident

Guest post by Amezuki, not by Gary Farber

You all know me by a different pseudonym, and I'll reintroduce myself properly later.

But in the meantime, a word from our Founders:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

The Declaration of Independence stands, in my mind, as one of the greatest political documents in history.

Like our Constitution, it stands on the shoulders of many other exalted works, and my opinion is not in any way intended to denigrate those works--but what makes it stand out in my mind is not just the role it had in the birth of our nation, but in the simple, unequivocal and straightforward statements of first principles it contains.

Foremost among these is the well-known passage I quoted above. Its evocative power was such that Martin Luther King, one of the most eloquent speakers and users of language our nation has known, had no need to embellish it further when quoting it, save to correctly note that it was a promise our country had yet to fully honor. "All men are created equal."

Think about that for a moment. All men. You will notice a distinct lack of footnotes, equivocation, qualifications or exceptions to the word "all".

Earthquake in Japan

by liberal japonicus

I'm grateful to fiddler Doctor Science for the open post, but I thought that I would give post just for the earthquake and let the open thread be for everything else and help give everyone some idea of Sendai, which was where the epicenter of the quake was as well as some points to take into account when reading the coverage.

While my family live in Kyushu and my wife's family lives in Hokkaido, so no family is directly touched by the disaster, I lived in Sendai for 5 years in the late 80's/early 90's and Sendai is the first place I lived in Japan. I've kept touch with a few people there, and in Japan, there is something similar to Christmas cards, called nengajo, delivered at New Year's which is how I kept touch. Since I'm in the states now, I don't have access to the phone numbers, but when I talked to my wife (I'm in the US now, she is back in Japan), she said that phone service is out and cell service is very spotty, so it will be a few days before we can contact anyone I knew. There are bulletin boards up, but since all the people I knew were from pre-internet, and I would have to read thru Japanese bulletin boards, I'm just going to have to sit tight and hope.

Sendai is in 'Tohoku' which means 'East-north' and Japanese often refer to this as 'Eastern Japan', because Japan lies on the diagonal. Sendai is 190 miles north of Tokyo, and it is the main city in Miyagi prefecture, and Miyagi, along with neighboring prefectures of Fukushima and Ibaraki were primarly effected, but because of the location on the Pacific, Sendai suffered the brunt of the earthquake and subsequent tsunami. The city is about 5.4 miles from the coast, I'm not sure how far inland the 10 m tsunami came.

Tohoku is considered to be a rural part of Japan, such that movies where the character is speaking with a US southern accent will sometimes be dubbed with a Tohoku accent. This may give a bit of a disconnect, because Japanese often consider Tohoku a rather rural place, but Sendai is a city of over a million people, so any reference to 'rural' should be taken as a slight translation problem.

According to reports I have seen, the earthquake measured 8.9, perhaps on the Richter scale. In Japan, they use a newer scale, called a moment magnitude scale. We have some folks with math background here, so I'll defer to them about how the two scales vary, but it is said that the scales are close enough that reports doesn't name the scale, but if you see some variance in the reporting, this may explain it. 

I have seen various figures for the number of nuclear reactors (as high as 11) in the three prefectures but some seem to conflate sites, with number of reactors. They all have shut down fail-safes, and are no longer online, and the Japan Nuclear Commission has reported that there are no radiation leaks, meaning that the earthquake has not caused a loss of containment, but the loss of electricity in the area seems to have led to difficulties in pumping the cooling water around the reactors. The one closest to the epicenter was the Onagawa plant and the picture in the Wikipedia entry gives you an idea of why the tsunami could be a problem. The other two, located in Fukushima (Fukushima Daiichi and Daini, (Dai means big or major, ichi means 1 and 2 means two) have also had their populations evaculated from the area, suggesting that a similar problem may be happening there. As I understand it, they have emergency generators to handle this, but I'm not sure how long they can run and what powers them. NYTimes and Reuters on some aspects of this.

While the reports have been concentrated around Sendai, I sadly believe that the areas to the north of Sendai were also hit very hard. If you have some Japanese, you might want to take a look at this Tokyo Broadcasting News report. This is from Kesenuma, a fishing village/town that is 90 miles north of Sendai on the Pacific coast. This area of coast from the north of Sendai was, when I lived there, quite isolated from the main city, such that the train from Sendai to Kesenuma took as long as the bullet train from Tokyo to Sendai. I used to drive along that coast road, and I'd be surprised if it much more accessible than it was back then. I'd also add that you can often find Japanese news reports thru Google news and the Japanese transcript of what they are saying will be given below, which can be very helpful in understanding stories, though these seem to be only the ones read from news scripts rather than the live reporting you see above so if you have some Japanese, you may want to play with google news to see the later reports for more details. 

Japanese are quite earthquake conscious, and this video illustrates that. As the quake strengthens, the family leaves the house to get into the street and away from the house. This is even though the Japanese building code was revised most recently in 1998 and 2000 and is probably the world's strongest in terms of earthquake resistance, and Japanese often rebuild completely rather than renovate. I've actually never been in an earthquake where it became a question of leaving the building or getting under a desk, so that also shows the power of this earthquake.

The code also has some required reinforcement for previously constructed buildings and there is a specific magnitude that they have to be able to withstand. For Japanese homes, construction is often wood, but with design features to resist earthquakes, though to what magnitude, I'm not sure. One of the big dangers is that japanese homes often have tile roofs which are quite heavy (designed to resist typhoons, I believe) which can collapse. However, I don't think there is a 'tsunami' construction code, especially facing a 10 meter wave, so no amount of earthquake reinforcement is going to deal with that.

You also may have seen houses that are floating in the tsunami that are on fire (its on a clip on CNN, but I can't find anything on youtube). To explain that a bit, I believe this means that the buildings themselves were strong enough to retain structural integrity even as they were struck by the tsunami. The fires are because Japanese homes use often use gas for cooking and water heating. The water heating is usually 'on demand'. Sendai is actually quite cold in the winter, so many houses will have small gas tanks outside of the house to reduce the possibility of house fires, so that is what I think you are seeing. 

The airport in Sendai is about 2 miles from the coast, so I wonder how the immediate relief effort will work. One video shows the airport under water with people on top of the airport building, but I assume the runways will be usable after the water recedes. Here is a video of Japanese news that starts with the airport and then shows oil tanks in Chiba prefecture (outside of Tokyo) burning. There is also a large port in Sendai that will be used for deployment of assets, I assume, but in the next 48 hours, I'm not sure where rescue efforts will be centered.

I'm going to step away from the computer a bit, and try and add, either in updates or comments plus try and answer any questions. 

update

This page has a lot of resources for keeping up on the news and finding friends who are in Japan link

Just to pull some grafs from that

Google has released a version of their Google Person Finder, currently localized in Japanese, English, Korean, and Chinese. Currently, this database depends on self-reported information--you can search for a person by name, and it will return with any information that someone else has put into the database about that person. If you have confirmation that your affected friends and family are okay, please consider adding that information to the Person Finder database by clicking I have information about someone.

Also, Google Crisis Response has launched a 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami hub with the latest news, updated maps and a growing list of useful resources for finding out more about the quake. Currently, you can access public data records, updates on the Japanese power grid and even Japanese train schedules, which could help you locate your loved ones.

You can also check in via cell phone number--each of the major Japanese cell networks has a simple disaster board that can check to see if they've left any messages with their respective network's message board, whether it's NTT DoCoMo, SoftBank, or KDDI AU.

The U.S. Department of State has launched a succinct Japan Earthquake & Pacific Tsunami page with travel alerts and contact information for making missing person inquiries. To confirm the safety of a U.S. citizen in Japan, send a concise inquiry to: [email protected]

...

Furthermore, the Red Cross operates a "Safe And Well" register to help disaster victims let their friends and family know they're safe. If you want to make a donation to help those affected by this disaster, donate via the Red Cross website and make sure to select the "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami" option. It's even easier to donate via phone by texting REDCROSS to 90999, which donates $10 to the general Red Cross Disaster Relief Fund from your next phone bill; as of publication, there is no specific phone donation code for donating exclusively to relief efforts in Japan.

update 2

apologies to fiddler and Doctor Science for confusing them.

The New York Times has a live blog with lots of videos, but I can't seem to link to individual youtube videos. The 1:07 blog post is interesting as it has a video of the town of Miyako being struck by the tsunami. You will note that many people are up on the high ground watching the tsunami go thru, and the dead and insured tolls for Iwate prefecture. You'll note that they are remarkably detailed and rather low. This is because Japanese police keep detailed maps identifying the residents of each house that are readily obtainable and the early warning system is quite extensive, so they can identify who is missing very quickly. This situation will be quite different in Sendai, where the tsunami hit quite suddenly and there was little time to escape. 

The same blog has a page for charitable giving

There is a live feed from TBS here (Japanese only). It's morning now in Japan and the TV programs will be having lots of detail about current rescue efforts, so there will be detailed reports and footage. This Australia Broadcasting page gives some details of the state of things as of this am in Japan.

update 3

I've been watching CNN and watching the Japanese news channels and there are a few things that strike a wrong note with me. They are understandable, but I wanted to pass them on.

1)Japan is not Tokyo. CNN has had several bloggers on live feeds, and asking them what they experienced. A number of people have been interviewed, but they all seem to be from Tokyo or visiting Tokyo. While the gas fire at the Cosmos gas refinery in Chiba, near Tokyo, was quite spectacular, but my impression is that Tokyo is generally safe. As reporters get into Sendai, the impression of the disasater will change quite a bit.

2)The death toll will not be as horrific as it was for Banda Aceh and might be surprising low for all the damage you see. You will see lots of videos of the tsunami coming in. This is, as I mentioned above, because they were able to evacuate people to higher ground. Some reports I read said that in the areas closest to the tsunami, the warning was only about 4 minutes, but that gave people a chance to get out.

The tsunami warning system worked Friday, with the agency alerting people to imminent tsunamis within three minutes of the quake, and the first waves struck 10 to 15 minutes later. The alert may have saved hundreds of lives, as some residents were able to flee to higher ground. link

Many of the commentators seem to be thinking of deaths in the high thousands (the indian ocean tsunami killed 230,000), but while not giving an estimate, I think people will be surprised by the mismatch between amount of destruction and the number of casualties. It will still be far too many, but the early warning systems in place will have prevented a much much higher toll. 

3)the nuclear reactors are a story to be tracking. The tsunami knocked out the diesel generators, but there are backup batteries, however, they won't last forever, so they are probably making every effort to find ways to keep that power going. This article has an interesting tidbit that I have read about, but now can't find the article. Here are the key grafs

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Friday on its website that the quake and tsunami knocked out the reactor's off-site power source, which is used to cool down the radioactive material inside. Then, the tsunami waves disabled the backup source -- diesel generators -- and authorities were working to get these operating.

Janie Eudy told CNN that her 52-year-old husband, Joe, was working at the plant and was injured by falling and shattering glass when the quake struck. As he and others were planning to evacuate, at their managers' orders, the tsunami waves struck and washed buildings from the nearby town past the plant.

...

Eighty employees of General Electric Hitachi Nuclear Energy, including Eudy, who were at the plant are all safe, company spokesman Michael Tetuan said. He added that the firm is devising plans to evacuate those workers, who were subcontractors at the plant.

I believe I read a story about the fact that the vast majority of workers at nuclear power plants in Japan are foreigners, but it may come out.

update 4

SEK over at LGM notes this estimate at Kyodo news of 88,000 dead. As I note in a comment over there, this is going to be too high, unless something further happens. I also note that Japanese has a basic unit of 10,000 which often creates errors in large numbers. 

As sekaijin mentions, the domestic news may be sugarcoating the Fukushima reactor situation. The Guardian liveblog might be of interest, but it is hard to evaluate all the information coming out. A lot of the Japanese nuclear industry is out of sight, out of mind for Japanese. I have read that there are a large contingent of foreign workers at these plants, and I believe that it is because young Japanese have a bit of a squick going into jobs involved with nuclear power. The NIMBY reaction to nuclear is often muted by both a realization of the need for energy that does not involve importing, a push to reduce CO2, and careful thought put to location etc so the plant doesn't look like something in the Simpsons. The wikipedia link to the Onodera plant above has a picture and I'd guess that that is the only way you can get a clear picture of the plant. Here are two articles (here and here) about nuclear power in Japan from the excellent Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus (as the name may suggest, while it is focussed on Japan, the articles range from all over Asia and the Pacific)

 

Japanese earthquake/tsunami post and open thread

I just got to the computer and am reeling in shock to learn of the earthquake. I am monitoring The Lede Blog at the NYTimes, my favorite source these days for breaking-every-minute news.

To our collective relief, liberal japonicus mentioned (in comments on the previous post) that he is in North America at the moment, and that his Japanese family is mostly in the western part of that country, farther from the epicenter. This post may be used for any other updates or significant news. I have to go see Mr. Taxes today, so I'm pressed for time, but you-all may consider this an open thread.

The Great Wave off Kanagawa

Snog In The Fog: Science Fiction And Weekend Open Thread

by Gary Farber

If you happen to be in the environs of the San Francisco Bay Area from March 11th through 13th, I'll be here:

FOGcon: March 11-13, 2011, at the Holiday Inn Golden Gateway Hotel

Fogcon is this (links mine):

The Friends of Genre Convention (FOGcon) is a literary-themed San Francisco SF/F con in the tradition of Wiscon and Readercon. Each year we’ll focus on a new theme in speculative fiction and invite Honored Guests ranging from writers to scientists to artists. We will build community, exchange ideas, and share our love for the literature of imagination.

Theme for 2011: The City in SF/F

Honored Guests: Pat Murphy and Jeff VanderMeer; Honored Editorial Guest, Ann VanderMeer; Honored Guest (Posthumous) Fritz Leiber

“There is more than one road to the City.”—Ursula K. Le Guin

The theme of this, the first FOGCon is:

Whether a glass-edged utopia or a steampunk hell, the city plays a central role in many works of speculative fiction. It can be an arena for conflicts between cultures, a center of learning or vice, a court of power and corruption. In its gutters and government buildings, the city reveals the values a society claims and those it actually honors. Because the city is open to everyone, it’s a place where new things can happen. No wonder it is such a rich topic for so many writers.

Lots of other kewl people will be there.  There will be programming!

I'm particularly, given the time-change, and our ability as science fiction people to slipstream, looking forward to these bits of programming: