Earthquake in Japan

by liberal japonicus

I'm grateful to fiddler Doctor Science for the open post, but I thought that I would give post just for the earthquake and let the open thread be for everything else and help give everyone some idea of Sendai, which was where the epicenter of the quake was as well as some points to take into account when reading the coverage.

While my family live in Kyushu and my wife's family lives in Hokkaido, so no family is directly touched by the disaster, I lived in Sendai for 5 years in the late 80's/early 90's and Sendai is the first place I lived in Japan. I've kept touch with a few people there, and in Japan, there is something similar to Christmas cards, called nengajo, delivered at New Year's which is how I kept touch. Since I'm in the states now, I don't have access to the phone numbers, but when I talked to my wife (I'm in the US now, she is back in Japan), she said that phone service is out and cell service is very spotty, so it will be a few days before we can contact anyone I knew. There are bulletin boards up, but since all the people I knew were from pre-internet, and I would have to read thru Japanese bulletin boards, I'm just going to have to sit tight and hope.

Sendai is in 'Tohoku' which means 'East-north' and Japanese often refer to this as 'Eastern Japan', because Japan lies on the diagonal. Sendai is 190 miles north of Tokyo, and it is the main city in Miyagi prefecture, and Miyagi, along with neighboring prefectures of Fukushima and Ibaraki were primarly effected, but because of the location on the Pacific, Sendai suffered the brunt of the earthquake and subsequent tsunami. The city is about 5.4 miles from the coast, I'm not sure how far inland the 10 m tsunami came.

Tohoku is considered to be a rural part of Japan, such that movies where the character is speaking with a US southern accent will sometimes be dubbed with a Tohoku accent. This may give a bit of a disconnect, because Japanese often consider Tohoku a rather rural place, but Sendai is a city of over a million people, so any reference to 'rural' should be taken as a slight translation problem.

According to reports I have seen, the earthquake measured 8.9, perhaps on the Richter scale. In Japan, they use a newer scale, called a moment magnitude scale. We have some folks with math background here, so I'll defer to them about how the two scales vary, but it is said that the scales are close enough that reports doesn't name the scale, but if you see some variance in the reporting, this may explain it. 

I have seen various figures for the number of nuclear reactors (as high as 11) in the three prefectures but some seem to conflate sites, with number of reactors. They all have shut down fail-safes, and are no longer online, and the Japan Nuclear Commission has reported that there are no radiation leaks, meaning that the earthquake has not caused a loss of containment, but the loss of electricity in the area seems to have led to difficulties in pumping the cooling water around the reactors. The one closest to the epicenter was the Onagawa plant and the picture in the Wikipedia entry gives you an idea of why the tsunami could be a problem. The other two, located in Fukushima (Fukushima Daiichi and Daini, (Dai means big or major, ichi means 1 and 2 means two) have also had their populations evaculated from the area, suggesting that a similar problem may be happening there. As I understand it, they have emergency generators to handle this, but I'm not sure how long they can run and what powers them. NYTimes and Reuters on some aspects of this.

While the reports have been concentrated around Sendai, I sadly believe that the areas to the north of Sendai were also hit very hard. If you have some Japanese, you might want to take a look at this Tokyo Broadcasting News report. This is from Kesenuma, a fishing village/town that is 90 miles north of Sendai on the Pacific coast. This area of coast from the north of Sendai was, when I lived there, quite isolated from the main city, such that the train from Sendai to Kesenuma took as long as the bullet train from Tokyo to Sendai. I used to drive along that coast road, and I'd be surprised if it much more accessible than it was back then. I'd also add that you can often find Japanese news reports thru Google news and the Japanese transcript of what they are saying will be given below, which can be very helpful in understanding stories, though these seem to be only the ones read from news scripts rather than the live reporting you see above so if you have some Japanese, you may want to play with google news to see the later reports for more details. 

Japanese are quite earthquake conscious, and this video illustrates that. As the quake strengthens, the family leaves the house to get into the street and away from the house. This is even though the Japanese building code was revised most recently in 1998 and 2000 and is probably the world's strongest in terms of earthquake resistance, and Japanese often rebuild completely rather than renovate. I've actually never been in an earthquake where it became a question of leaving the building or getting under a desk, so that also shows the power of this earthquake.

The code also has some required reinforcement for previously constructed buildings and there is a specific magnitude that they have to be able to withstand. For Japanese homes, construction is often wood, but with design features to resist earthquakes, though to what magnitude, I'm not sure. One of the big dangers is that japanese homes often have tile roofs which are quite heavy (designed to resist typhoons, I believe) which can collapse. However, I don't think there is a 'tsunami' construction code, especially facing a 10 meter wave, so no amount of earthquake reinforcement is going to deal with that.

You also may have seen houses that are floating in the tsunami that are on fire (its on a clip on CNN, but I can't find anything on youtube). To explain that a bit, I believe this means that the buildings themselves were strong enough to retain structural integrity even as they were struck by the tsunami. The fires are because Japanese homes use often use gas for cooking and water heating. The water heating is usually 'on demand'. Sendai is actually quite cold in the winter, so many houses will have small gas tanks outside of the house to reduce the possibility of house fires, so that is what I think you are seeing. 

The airport in Sendai is about 2 miles from the coast, so I wonder how the immediate relief effort will work. One video shows the airport under water with people on top of the airport building, but I assume the runways will be usable after the water recedes. Here is a video of Japanese news that starts with the airport and then shows oil tanks in Chiba prefecture (outside of Tokyo) burning. There is also a large port in Sendai that will be used for deployment of assets, I assume, but in the next 48 hours, I'm not sure where rescue efforts will be centered.

I'm going to step away from the computer a bit, and try and add, either in updates or comments plus try and answer any questions. 

update

This page has a lot of resources for keeping up on the news and finding friends who are in Japan link

Just to pull some grafs from that

Google has released a version of their Google Person Finder, currently localized in Japanese, English, Korean, and Chinese. Currently, this database depends on self-reported information--you can search for a person by name, and it will return with any information that someone else has put into the database about that person. If you have confirmation that your affected friends and family are okay, please consider adding that information to the Person Finder database by clicking I have information about someone.

Also, Google Crisis Response has launched a 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami hub with the latest news, updated maps and a growing list of useful resources for finding out more about the quake. Currently, you can access public data records, updates on the Japanese power grid and even Japanese train schedules, which could help you locate your loved ones.

You can also check in via cell phone number--each of the major Japanese cell networks has a simple disaster board that can check to see if they've left any messages with their respective network's message board, whether it's NTT DoCoMo, SoftBank, or KDDI AU.

The U.S. Department of State has launched a succinct Japan Earthquake & Pacific Tsunami page with travel alerts and contact information for making missing person inquiries. To confirm the safety of a U.S. citizen in Japan, send a concise inquiry to: [email protected]

...

Furthermore, the Red Cross operates a "Safe And Well" register to help disaster victims let their friends and family know they're safe. If you want to make a donation to help those affected by this disaster, donate via the Red Cross website and make sure to select the "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami" option. It's even easier to donate via phone by texting REDCROSS to 90999, which donates $10 to the general Red Cross Disaster Relief Fund from your next phone bill; as of publication, there is no specific phone donation code for donating exclusively to relief efforts in Japan.

update 2

apologies to fiddler and Doctor Science for confusing them.

The New York Times has a live blog with lots of videos, but I can't seem to link to individual youtube videos. The 1:07 blog post is interesting as it has a video of the town of Miyako being struck by the tsunami. You will note that many people are up on the high ground watching the tsunami go thru, and the dead and insured tolls for Iwate prefecture. You'll note that they are remarkably detailed and rather low. This is because Japanese police keep detailed maps identifying the residents of each house that are readily obtainable and the early warning system is quite extensive, so they can identify who is missing very quickly. This situation will be quite different in Sendai, where the tsunami hit quite suddenly and there was little time to escape. 

The same blog has a page for charitable giving

There is a live feed from TBS here (Japanese only). It's morning now in Japan and the TV programs will be having lots of detail about current rescue efforts, so there will be detailed reports and footage. This Australia Broadcasting page gives some details of the state of things as of this am in Japan.

update 3

I've been watching CNN and watching the Japanese news channels and there are a few things that strike a wrong note with me. They are understandable, but I wanted to pass them on.

1)Japan is not Tokyo. CNN has had several bloggers on live feeds, and asking them what they experienced. A number of people have been interviewed, but they all seem to be from Tokyo or visiting Tokyo. While the gas fire at the Cosmos gas refinery in Chiba, near Tokyo, was quite spectacular, but my impression is that Tokyo is generally safe. As reporters get into Sendai, the impression of the disasater will change quite a bit.

2)The death toll will not be as horrific as it was for Banda Aceh and might be surprising low for all the damage you see. You will see lots of videos of the tsunami coming in. This is, as I mentioned above, because they were able to evacuate people to higher ground. Some reports I read said that in the areas closest to the tsunami, the warning was only about 4 minutes, but that gave people a chance to get out.

The tsunami warning system worked Friday, with the agency alerting people to imminent tsunamis within three minutes of the quake, and the first waves struck 10 to 15 minutes later. The alert may have saved hundreds of lives, as some residents were able to flee to higher ground. link

Many of the commentators seem to be thinking of deaths in the high thousands (the indian ocean tsunami killed 230,000), but while not giving an estimate, I think people will be surprised by the mismatch between amount of destruction and the number of casualties. It will still be far too many, but the early warning systems in place will have prevented a much much higher toll. 

3)the nuclear reactors are a story to be tracking. The tsunami knocked out the diesel generators, but there are backup batteries, however, they won't last forever, so they are probably making every effort to find ways to keep that power going. This article has an interesting tidbit that I have read about, but now can't find the article. Here are the key grafs

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Friday on its website that the quake and tsunami knocked out the reactor's off-site power source, which is used to cool down the radioactive material inside. Then, the tsunami waves disabled the backup source -- diesel generators -- and authorities were working to get these operating.

Janie Eudy told CNN that her 52-year-old husband, Joe, was working at the plant and was injured by falling and shattering glass when the quake struck. As he and others were planning to evacuate, at their managers' orders, the tsunami waves struck and washed buildings from the nearby town past the plant.

...

Eighty employees of General Electric Hitachi Nuclear Energy, including Eudy, who were at the plant are all safe, company spokesman Michael Tetuan said. He added that the firm is devising plans to evacuate those workers, who were subcontractors at the plant.

I believe I read a story about the fact that the vast majority of workers at nuclear power plants in Japan are foreigners, but it may come out.

update 4

SEK over at LGM notes this estimate at Kyodo news of 88,000 dead. As I note in a comment over there, this is going to be too high, unless something further happens. I also note that Japanese has a basic unit of 10,000 which often creates errors in large numbers. 

As sekaijin mentions, the domestic news may be sugarcoating the Fukushima reactor situation. The Guardian liveblog might be of interest, but it is hard to evaluate all the information coming out. A lot of the Japanese nuclear industry is out of sight, out of mind for Japanese. I have read that there are a large contingent of foreign workers at these plants, and I believe that it is because young Japanese have a bit of a squick going into jobs involved with nuclear power. The NIMBY reaction to nuclear is often muted by both a realization of the need for energy that does not involve importing, a push to reduce CO2, and careful thought put to location etc so the plant doesn't look like something in the Simpsons. The wikipedia link to the Onodera plant above has a picture and I'd guess that that is the only way you can get a clear picture of the plant. Here are two articles (here and here) about nuclear power in Japan from the excellent Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus (as the name may suggest, while it is focussed on Japan, the articles range from all over Asia and the Pacific)

 

Comments

[Der_BlindSchtiller]

Internet connections in Japan appear to still be working. I've been able to reach multiple friends/colleagues over and, thankfully, everyone (and their families) are okay so far. Skype is offering free calls to Japan from anywhere in the world. My wife was able to use it to reach a good friend near Sendai.

[Catsy]

Thanks for putting this up.

I have an old friend in Chiba who has yet to respond, but I haven't spoken to her in years and there are any number of reasons why that could be.

Last I heard, she didn't live on the coastal side of the prefecture--she was closer to Tokyo, really--so the chances she was impacted by the tsunami are probably pretty low. The earthquake is another story.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[fiddler]

Sorry, but I think you're crediting me wrongly -- I didn't start the open post. I've been away from home all day and away from the computer.

That said, one of the first things I did this morning was check with a friend whose daughter teaches English in Tokyo to make sure she was all right (she is). And then I watched the news footage on many channels on TV and saw the still shots from the BBC and others, and felt shocked at the sheer destructiveness of the quake and the tsunami.

[liberal japonicus]

thanks fiddler, I've corrected the post.

[sekaijin]

I was on the subway going to a dental appointment in Tokyo when it struck. I looked at my cell phone clock as the train was about to leave out of the station we had pulled into, just to check that it was leaving on time so I could gauge when I'd get to the station I had to get out of for my appontment. The subway car began swaying and at first, I thought it was a draft coming in through the conduits, but then I realized that in fact it was an earthquake when it lasted for more than thirty seconds.

After some muddle, when they opened the doors, I got out and saw the notices, along with some rumblings of an aftershock. It hit me that in fact we had had a big one and I tried to call my wife, who was at home. When I didn't get through I started to worry, though I noticed others were frustrated with their phones. It was clear that it wasn't just me, or our landline, or her cell phone server; communications were knocked out all around. I tried calling my dentist's office and couldn't get through either.

So the long and the short of it was that I ended up having to walk home. I assumed the appointment would be a no-go as I was certain that my dentist would close down (which I have learned that it did - they were worried about me making it there and not being able to get back).

I departed the station and followed the general direction of the subway station entrances along the Yurakucho subway line, which I had taken, as if I followed them far enough, I could connect to the roads leading to where I live in Nerima ward. I did just this - all 14 kilometers of it, which amounted to about a four-and-a-half hour walk. The sidewalks and even some of the streets were packed with people in the same straits, with lots of folks asking for directions and checking the navigation on their cell phones. I was able to get hold of my wife and she hopped on her bicycle to meet me at Nerima station.

So, I can back up LJ's remote insights of the accounts. Along my urban trek, I saw exactly one flower pot upended, and one cracked door window. That's it. Tokyo really has gotten the light end of things and while my side of our home office got messed up, with me now thinking of how to reconfigure the bookshelf and such, along with a broken teapot and one smashed wine glass, that's the extent of our damage. We had reinforcing done on our house a couple of years ago precisely for this sort of thing, and while there was some oscillation you could feel in the aftershocks plus the smaller quake we just had today (around 12:12PM local time or so - it's Saturday afternoon here now), it would've been worse without it, as it's an older house.

The only thing I would add to the yeoman-like insights LJ has is that neither my wife or I are sure just how comprehensive the coverage is in the Japanese media about the situation with the nuclear reactors. We've been watching NHK, TBS, FNN, and other Japanese networks and comparing it with CNN's coverage, and we get a sense there is at least a little sugarcoating right now in the Japanese media - though I would also add that it is understandable in a country with an unfortunate history vis-a-vis anything to do with atomic power. We're also feeling that at some point they'll have to be more forthcoming anyway as people in those parts of Fukushima and elsewhere have to know, with possibly more evacuation planning afoot.

Tokyo certainly is not representative of the rest of the Japan and we feel so much for the people in the Tohoku right now. I have a former student from Iwate who had done an English for the hospitality industry course with me at the vocational college where one of my jobs takes place. A lovely girl, and the best student in what sometimes was a surly, undermotivated class. She couldn't get a job in Tokyo - perhaps, thanks to her Tohoku accent - and, as far as I know, ended up going back to Iwate. I don't know what's become of her as she has a fairly common name with common kanji, and after checking, came up trumps with her.

That's all I have.

[Shena]

This footage is so damn hard to watch.Thousands of poor people swept away. Prayers to those who suffered and lost life or are injured.

[Cranky Observer]

> I believe I read a story about the fact
> that the vast majority of workers at
> nuclear power plants in Japan are
> foreigners, but it may come out.

The nuclear power industry developed on parallel paths in the 1960s and 1970s. Many nations' electric utility and engineering firms licensed the US designs of General Electric (boiling water reactors) and Westinghouse (pressurized water reactors); the first such units were basically duplicates of US plants (the two damaged by the earthquake being essentially sisters of Exelon's Dresden 2 & 3 near Chicago), but then each developed their own generations from there.

In the 1980s and 1990s the industry became much more global, particularly as orders for new US plants ended and both GE and Westinghouse pulled back from the market. Hitachi is now the largest supplier of GE-type units (and a French company the largest supplier of Westinghouse-type units).

However, GE (and the spun-off Westinghouse nuclear) is still heavily involved in the market, esp for services, and it would not surprise me if their services division had a good number of people at almost every nuclear site in the world. BUT - this would not be a majority of the workers; the Japanese plants are fully under the control of their national utilities and engineering firms who are quite proud of their technical and operational capability.

Cranky

[liberal japonicus]

Thanks Cranky.

Unfortunately, there have been a handful of articles about the number of foreign workers in the Japanese nuclear industry because it is considered a 3K occupation (kitanai, kitsui, kiken or dirty, difficult, and dangerous, the equivalent in English is a 3D job) and young Japanese don't want to do these sorts of jobs.

a number of progressive sources discussed the notion of 'nuclear gypsies' in the early 80's. Here are some links
here page 37
here (a questia link, I can't find the paper online, but the author has written about it on some newslists, I believe

About 10 years ago, with the Tokaimura accident, the question of where nuclear workers were from arose, and this LATimes article which notes that 90% of nuclear workers in Japan are subcontracted.

[DCA]

A trivial point, in view of what has happened, but (and I speak as a professional), please forget about "Richter magnitude"--there is no such thing. There are a whole bunch of magnitude scales, all semi-arbitrary but all of which try to line up with what Richter did in California, and also do a good job of representing the size of big earthquakes (which his original definition turned out not to do). Moment magnitude is the best of these, and is generally used. Don't worry if you see different numbers, it is just a reflection of different definitions, and that the numbers change as more data get processed.

[liberal japonicus]

Thanks DCA. When I first came to Japan, 25 years ago, coming from a place with no noticable seismic activity during my lifetime, I spent a lot of time trying to figure out what scale was what, but never did so to my satisfaction. I spent some time while writing this to try and make sure what scale was being used and was unsuccessful. I did find this for the math geeks, but I have no idea what to plug in.

I did hear one expert talking head on one channel say that they were reevaluating the readings and it is possible that the event reached 9.1, making it one of the top four strongest earthquakes ever recorded with a seismograph.

[JanieM]

sekaijin -- thanks for the first-person impressions. I'm glad you and your family are safe.

[Cranky Observer]

Here's a good resources on questions about measuring earthquakes:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?categoryID=2

My favorite is "Where can I buy a Richter Scale?"!

Cranky

[Reginac23]

One of my brother's coworkers has a son, Aaron Strumwasser, who is teaching at the Starry Kodoba English school in Sendai. They have not been able to contact him and are frantic. This is the google person search for him:

http://japan.person-finder.appspot.com/results?first_name&last_name&query=aaron+strumwasser&small=no

[liberal japonicus]

Reginac23,
I'm sorry, but I don't have any other suggestions. I'll be back in Japan March 30th if the flight situation has resolved and I'll try from Japan.

[Reginac23]

Good news! Aaron called home tonight and he is safe and in a shelter at an elementary school. His parents are overjoyed. Here's a tv story that aired about it before the call came:

http://www.king5.com/home/Locals-in-Japan-call-home-some-still-missing-117842053.html

Regina

[sekaijin]

Reginac23 - not to trivialize things or anything of the sort with your brother's coworker's son - but really, Tokyo for the most part has really gotten off from all this. Tokyo Disneyland and the Disney Sea Resort, which are actually both in Urayasu, in Chiba prefecture just across the border from the Tokyo metropolitan area, did get their parking lots and entrance ways upended somewhat, but that may be about the biggest single piece of real estate damage sustained anywhere in Tokyo or proximate to it (not being such a Disney company fan, I would only have lost sleep over it had people been killed or injured the way they have in the Tohoku - the physical structures themselves I could care less about).

So as for anyone else from Tokyo - we're all okay. Having said that, I am very glad that he was located. The cell phone and landline servers have been knocked out somewhat, though I haven't checked myself so much lately. But that's the main reason why you weren't hearing anything from him.

Commuters working in Tokyo had been marooned in their offices and other buildings, as had students in their schools, but they've all been well-provided for given the circumstances. I've been hearing from a number of people I know in such straits through my Facebook page and they're all okay.

[liberal japonicus]

sekaijin, the person was in Sendai, not Tokyo.

[Countme--In]

Thank our lucky stars, according to the cold-hearted American vermin infesting the country:

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2011/03/larry-kudlow-devalues-human-life-with-japan-earthquake-freudian-slip.html

[sekaijin]

My apologies to LJ and Reginac23 - thought it read "Tokyo." Sorry.

[Janie]

While Tokyo was disrupted by the quake there seems to be more news about Tokyo than the areas hardest hit by the quake. I have relatives in the town of Uwanuma Tomeshi Nakadacho which is fairly close to Sendai and I have not had any news about them or any other urban cities or towns in this area. I am sure that the relatives and friends of these people would like to know the situation in these outer areas. I guess I am just frustrated.

[liberal japonicus]

Janie,
Do you mean Iwanuma? If you have a scan of the address and the name in Japanese so I can see the japanese characters, I can look for you. Send it to libjpn [at] gmail. Unfortunately Iwanuma and neighboring Natori seem to be an area that was really hit hard.

Sekaijin, please drop me a line at the above address, I am sure I will be up in Tokyo within the next 6 months, and would love to meet you IRL.

I've just gotten this link, which allows you to watch 4 Japanese TV stations simultaneously streaming, though at the moment, I am only getting two. Live reports from many of the small seaside towns that are now gone. Google maps has a special map with various information, including the epicenter and affected areas. The tsunami traveled at about 500-600 mph and the epicenter was about 125 miles, so towns on the coast had about 10-15 minutes warning. My hopes of the majority getting out are probably far too optimistic.

[JanieM]

Maybe people have seen http://video.l3.fbcdn.net/cfs-l3-snc6/81489/34/1605260179420_2624.mp4?oh=ac31b4d8738221641ba490396dc19636&oe=4D7F9F00&l3s=20110313100648&l3e=20110315101648&lh=0a6cfa5eeaecd6dc12abf>this, but I hadn't seen anything like it. It's video of the water first just starting to come into a city street, a fast-moving trickle, and eventually it's at the level of the second stories of the buildings, carrying some buildings along with it. Someone stood there and took this footage, wow.

I've always pictured a tsunami as if it's a wave, only bigger. That may technically be what it is, but it's the wrong picture.

Words fail.