by von
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen.
Here's an open thread. Let's talk about our lives.
(Yes, I'm still retired.)
« October 2010 | Main | December 2010 »
by von
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen.
Here's an open thread. Let's talk about our lives.
(Yes, I'm still retired.)
Posted by von at 02:05 AM in Culture and Stuff | Permalink | Comments (129) | TrackBack (0)
by Doctor Science
Like many people, I played the New York Times' You Fix the Budget puzzle. My personal solution can be succinctly described as "stop war; tax the rich".
Of course, the whole game is based on assumptions about what we can or can't do: there are options for "Obama's plan" versus "Clinton-era taxes", for instance, but none for my favored Eisenhower-era taxes. And then we also get to consider:
Tighten eligibility for disabilityBut hey! It could save up to $17 billion dollars! Out of a trillion! So really, how much could it hurt?The costs of the disability insurance program, which is administrated by the Social Security Administration, have been rising rapidly. This option would cut disability spending by 5 percent by focusing on states with the loosest standards. Supporters note that growing numbers of workers are classified as disabled, though the average job is less physically taxing. Opponents worry that injured or ill workers with few good job prospects would be harmed.
It happens that I've spent some time this past week finding resources for a friend who IMHO needs to go on disability, and from my personal observation: it could hurt a *lot*. And the people it would hurt are, pretty much by definition, already hurting -- it is a targeted intervention to afflict the afflicted.
Posted by Doctor Science at 02:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (24) | TrackBack (0)
by Doctor Science
When people started talking about the TSA offering passengers a choice of "nude pix or enhanced pat-down", I was at first kind of confused about why there was so much fuss. You see, I remember getting the old "enhanced security examination" years ago, and no-one then took real umbrage.
The different circumstances, though, shed light on why the TSA's policies have really crossed a line (James Fallows, *very* frequent flier and occasional pilot, is a good source for background).
Posted by Doctor Science at 01:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (48) | TrackBack (0)
by Jacob Davies
Ours is - learning to walk, that is:
One day about a week ago he took one tottering step and two days later he was rampaging around the house anywhere he wanted.
I am also helping him prepare for a career in the Godzilla-sized-monster business, since I feel everyone should learn a trade:
This is an open thread. My weekend is devoted to turkey day preparations (11 for dinner) with a brief stop for Yo Gabba Gabba Live in San Francisco. Yes, that scares me as much as it does you.
I'm having a hard time figuring out anything useful or interesting to say on the political or economic front, since it's apparent that despite all the pressing needs we have, nothing at all is likely to get done for the next two years. I look forward to a thrilling parade of conspiracy theories in all the serious media and a lot of terrifying grandstanding on matters of life-or-death importance.
1998 was awesome. Let's do it again!
Posted by Jacob Davies at 07:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
by Eric Martin
In what should have been heralded as a dramatic triumph for our criminal justice system and our laudable dedication to the rule of law, Ahmed Ghailani (who was involved in the embassy bombings in Africa in the late 1990s) was convicted and will likely serve life in prison (he faces a minimum of 20 years, but given the nature of the crimes, the judge will undoubtedly opt for the maximum of life without parole).
This conviction was obtained despite the fact that Ghailani was tortured and, thus, significant portions of the evidence against him was inadmissible.
Nevertheless, many torture-advocates and others that favor discarding Constitutional assurances of fair trials, have been treating the Ghailani conviction as proof of the need to jettison key sections of the Bill of Rights because Ghailani was "only" convicted on one charge, and was acquitted of the two-hundred-plus other charges - the acquittals largely a result of the tainted evidence excluded because it was obtained via torture. Yet another reason why torture is an ineffectual, counterproductive policy. But I digress.
Unfortunately, the media seems to be buying into the spin that one conviction is a grave defeat because Ghailani was acquitted on the other charges. Paul Waldman (whose post is cleverly titled, Terrorism Conviction Supposedly Demonstrates Futility of Seeking Terrorism Convictions) has a decent round-up of media reactions. This article from James Meek in the New York Daily News is typical:
Ahmed Ghailani was supposed to be the test case, the reason why political opposition to trying Guantanamo goons in civilian courts was just hot air.
But now, after "Foopie" Ghailani was acquitted on all but one count for his role in the 1998 East Africa embassy bombings by Al Qaeda, Team Obama's hope of trying Gitmo's worst in civilian courts has been all but dashed.
Look for the secure courthouse at the U.S. Naval base in Cuba to get busy with military commission trials for many of the remaining inmates of the terrorist prison there, who number less than 200 now.
This sentiment is deeply disheartening on many levels.
First of all, our adherence to the rule of law is premised on the notion that all are entitled to fair trials - that you are innocent until proven guilty, and that the executive cannot be judge, jury and executioner. Living up to these principles requires that we accept the inevitability that some guilty parties may be acquitted. This unfortunate eventuality is mitigated by a glimpse at the alternative - lifetime imprisonment or execution based on the say-so of the executive, which would result in a far worse tyranny.
Thus, even though OJ Simpson was acquitted, there was not a massive, coordinated call to disregard the requirement that accused murderers get fair trials. Unlike OJ, however, Ghailani wasn't even fully acquitted - he was convicted of a very serious crime, and will almost certainly spend the rest of his life in prison because of it.
Some, however, complain that Ghailani was "only" convicted of conspiracy, and not any of the associated murder charges. In order to put this in perspective, I'll resort to another historical analogy: Al Capone (a truly inhumane and murderous individual) was convicted on relatively benign sounding tax-related charges (which carried a stiff penalty regardless). But, again, the failure to secure a conviction on "more serious" charges was not used as a pretext for stripping away vital Constitutional protections for certain classes of accused.
In the present case, we should also look at the alternatives proposed. Meek suggests that we shift suspects out of the criminal justice system and into military commissions. But, and this is key, military commissions have a much worse track record of obtaining convictions in terrorist-related cases and, if and when they do, the sentences tend to be much lighter. In fact, the Ghailani sentence is harsher than any sentence handed out in a military commission to date.
As Adam Serwer points out:
There have been hundreds of civilian terrorism convictions in civilian court since 9/11, the vast majority of which were secured by the Bush administration. There have been four military commissions convictions in the past decade, and they are currently facing legal challenges that may put past and future convictions in doubt.
And Serwer again, from today:
The military commissions have, by and large, been a disaster, only securing five convictions in their entire existence. In the last military commissions trial, which involved Omar Khadr, the detainee pleaded guilty to murder in violation of the law of war, attempted murder in violation of the law of war, conspiracy, providing material support for terrorism, and spying, and received an eight-year sentence. He'll serve the first year at Gitmo, then he'll be transferred to Canada where he could be eligible for parole after serving two thirds of his sentence. That was actually one of the harsher military commissions sentences -- David Hicks got nine months, Salim Hamdan got five months. And we're supposed to view Ghailani's minimum sentence of 20 years as a "failure"? [emphasis added]
Just as torture advocates unwittingly endorse a form of interrogation that is ultimately far less effective in terms of garnering useful information under the irrational belief that such a morally reprehensible short-cut keeps us safer (while its use badly diminishes our principles and degrades our image in the world because of its repugnant nature), so, too, do proponents of military commissions urge the adoption of a justice system that is only more gratifying on a base, emotional level if you are willing to vastly undervalue the importance of our ostensibly cherished principles, and ignore the outcomes to boot.
Nevertheless, this will undoubtedly be labeled the "tough on terror" approach.
Posted by Eric Martin at 12:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (38) | TrackBack (0)
by Jacob Davies
Via Naked Capitalism, the FDIC is starting investigations into 50 executives, directors, and employees at failed institutions:
The agency responsible for dealing with bank failures is stepping up its effort to punish alleged recklessness, fraud and other criminal behavior, as U.S. officials did in the wake of the savings-and-loan crisis a generation ago. More than 300 banks and savings institutions have failed since the start of 2008, but just a few have led to criminal charges being filed against bank officials.
Pressure is high on regulators to identify and prosecute bankers for any wrongdoing that contributed to the largest number of failures in nearly 20 years. The September 2008 collapse of Washington Mutual Inc. was the biggest ever, with seven times the value of the assets that Continental Illinois Corp. had when it failed in 1984. The current epidemic of bank failures, including 146 so far this year, has deepened the nation's lending drought and left the industry's survivors with more muscle to squeeze customers.
The S&L crisis of the 1980s and 1990s killed more than 1,800 institutions. From 1990 to 1995, federal officials prosecuted about 1,850 bank insiders. More than 1,000 officers, directors and other officials went to prison, and federal agencies collected $4.5 billion in professional-liability claims.
In the current mess, no high-profile banker has been criminally charged in connection with a financial institution's demise, as Charles Keating was for fraud after American Continental Corp. failed in 1989. He served four years in prison and became synonymous with the S&L crisis.
Suspected criminal activity is handled by the FDIC's office of investigations, usually working with the FBI. Recommendations for prosecutions are referred to the Justice Department. It often takes at least 18 months for legal action to be brought after a bank fails, meaning the surge in scrutiny is likely to continue for years. FDIC officials expect the failure wave to peak this year.
That does explain the slow start here, assuming it's really true. Well, better late than never. The White House would do well to light a fire under the FDIC on this.
Posted by Jacob Davies at 09:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
by Eric Martin
The numbers from the Simpson-Bowles commission (as discussed by russell below) have been crunched by the expert, and the results have caused at least one prominent supporter, Jonathan Chait, to jump ship. The reasons are simple:
The wonks have finally gone through the debt commission's plan, and the findings are... not so good. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities -- a liberal group more favorable to deficit reduction than most liberals -- goes through the main problems here. In short, there's too much pain imposed on people with low incomes.
More problematically, the Tax Policy Center has broken down the distribution of the tax changes. The commission's plan would be more progressive, and would tax the rich at higher rates, than the Bush era tax code. But it would be less progressive and would tax the rich at lower rates than the Clinton-era tax code.
That's a total non-starter. The Bush tax cuts are slated to expire, and President Obama has stated he will not accept a permanent extension. You can argue either side of which policy baseline -- Bush-era tax rates or Clinton-era tax rates -- is the fair baseline to start from. But the fact is that the Bush tax cuts are slated to expire. Liberals don't need to do anything to get Clinton-era rates on the rich to return. There's simply no way Democrats can agree to assume Bush's low, low tax rates on the rich as a starting point, and then have the commission claw back some of those rates. That would mean rich's people's contribution to shared sacrifice would be something that is slated to happen anyway. I understand the need to trim back the welfare state, but we're not going to trim it back far enough for the rich to enjoy sub-Clinton-era levels of taxation.
Yeah, some sacrifice: go back to the 1990s era tax rates that were so horribly onerous, but then to ease the pain, here take a tax cut.
Ouch.
Posted by Eric Martin at 12:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (42) | TrackBack (0)
by Jacob Davies
Can we just leave them alone? Please?
Would you rather live under a lunatic Christian fundamentalism or have your house blown up? What about having your house blown up by Americans is supposed to be making your life any better?
You know those badges that say "What if there was a war and nobody came?" Well there is a war and we can choose not to come. In fact coming to this war is a monstrously complex operation involving enormous logistical effort that is costing us hundreds of billions of dollars for absolutely nothing of any value whatsoever. We could stop coming to this war tomorrow instead of ten years from now after we've razed the whole damn country:
In the newly won districts around this southern city, American forces are encountering empty homes and farm buildings left so heavily booby-trapped by Taliban insurgents that the Americans have been systematically destroying hundreds of them, according to local Afghan authorities.
While it has widespread support among Afghan officials and even some residents, and has been accompanied by an equally determined effort to hand out cash compensation to homeowners, other local people have complained that the demolitions have gone far beyond what is necessary.
I am guessing that "some residents" here does not include the ones having their house blown up.
What they have left behind are vacant houses and farm buildings so heavily rigged that soldiers have started referring to them as house-borne improvised explosive devices.
In recent weeks, using armored bulldozers, high explosives, missiles and even airstrikes, American troops have taken to destroying hundreds of them, by a conservative estimate, with some estimates running into the thousands.
“We don’t know the accurate number of homes destroyed, but it’s huge,” said Zalmai Ayubi, the spokesman for the Kandahar provincial governor, Tooryalai Wesa, and who with the governor visited on Oct. 21. “It’s the insurgents and the enemy of the country that are to blame for this destruction, because they have planted mines in civilian houses and main roads everywhere.”
In the most fiercely contested areas, especially in Zhare District, but also in parts of neighboring Panjwai and Arghandab Districts, American troops have been routinely destroying almost every unoccupied home or unused farm building in areas where they are operating.
In Arghandab District, for instance, every one of the 40 homes in the village of Khosrow was flattened by a salvo of 25 missiles, according to the district governor, Shah Muhammed Ahmadi, who estimated that 120 to 130 houses had been demolished in his district. “There was no other way; we knew people wanted us to get rid of all these deadly I.E.D.’s,” he said, referring to improvised explosive devices, the military’s term for homemade bombs.
“In some villages where only a few houses were contaminated by bombs, we called the owners and got their agreement to destroy them,” Mr. Ahmadi said. “In some villages like Khosrow that were completely empty and full of I.E.D.’s, we destroyed them without agreement because it was hard to find the people.
"We called the owners and got their agreement to destroy them". I wonder how that conversation went. "Hello there, we're calling from NATO, and we'd like to blow up your house. Yes, well, you see, it's just that we'd really like to blow it up, so if you wouldn't mind... yes, yes, I understand, you'd rather we didn't, but I'm awfully sorry to tell you that we'd honestly really prefer to blow it up. Yes. Yes, terrible thing, I know, but you know how it is, with houses... got to be blown up, haven't they?" What kind of "voluntary agreement" can you possibly make with a heavily-armed foreign occupying army that wants to destroy your house?
Posted by Jacob Davies at 11:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (31)
by Jacob Davies
So, the new Republican line on quantative easing is that because unemployment is far too high and has been for far too long, the Federal Reserve needs to ... stop trying to get unemployment down.
"The Fed’s dual mandate policy has failed," [GOP Rep. Mike] Pence said in a statement. "For a record 18th straight month the nation’s unemployment rate is at or above 9.4 percent. It’s time for the Fed to be solely focused on price stability and not the recently announced QE2 which will monetize our debt and trigger inflation."
I don't know what to add to that. In successive sentences he claims to be concerned about unemployment and then to want the Fed to ignore unemployment. Wha huh?
Posted by Jacob Davies at 03:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (27) | TrackBack (0)
by Doctor Science
Andrew Sullivan linked to Morgan Meis' review of George W. Bush's official portrait:
That can't be serious, I thought to myself when I turned a corner at the Gallery and saw the portrait. The mundane kitsch of the thing was shocking. There are standards. By God there are standards. Aren't there? A vase of flowers sits on the table of a dining room set behind him. The set is more middlebrow than anything you could find even at a mainstream outfit like IKEA. It is a set you'd find, I suppose, at Jennifer Convertibles. The whole scene is resolutely suburban. Aggressively suburban.Meis is shocked at how much the portrait looks like "a Sears portrait" in quality, but what shocks *me* is how resolutely unpresidential it is.
Posted by Doctor Science at 02:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (36) | TrackBack (0)
Recent Comments