Sold a Ballot of Goods

by Eric Martin

Joshua Foust sounds a somewhat pessimistic note on the eve of Parliamentary elections in Afghanistan.  In addition to the increased marginalization of women politicians (through intimidation and vioelence, no less), there is evidence of backsliding:

In comparison to the 2009 election, nearly 600 additional voting stations will be closed this year. These closures are happening in the least secure areas of the country, where the people who are most likely to oppose the current government live. In a war that many say can only be ended through political reconciliation, systematically disenfranchising the people you’re seeking to reconcile — regardless of the validity of the reason — is not a very positive development. Interestingly, provinces like Helmand, which have seen multiple high-profile U.S.-led campaigns to defeat the insurgency, are seeing more polling stations open than last year; provinces like Nangarhar, however, which many thought so safe its governor could run for President, have seen hundreds close. [...]

Hamid Karzai deserves condemnation for massively cheating in last year’s presidential election. What many don’t realize (or remember) is, his opponent, the supposedly non-corrupt Abdullah Abdullah, had nearly 300,000 votes voided for being fraudulent. In fact, Karzai’s fake votes only accounted for about a third of all fraudulent votes cast during last year’s election. This year’s parliamentary election will be no different, and in many ways will be worse. Because of the systematic voter intimidation, the disenfranchisement of women, the unavailability of polling stations in the most vulnerable regions, and the re-emergence of many regional strongmen who’d laid low the past several years, there is every indication that this year’s election will be marked by even more massive fraud. This means those who lose the election can and will contest it, with the end result that this and future elections will all be tainted as being illegitimate. In other words, the massive, systematic cheating in the last two elections will discredit the very idea of democracy in Afghanistan — perhaps permanently.

It should be pointed out that this step backward is occuring post-Afghan surge - that is, after the arrival of the allotted for additional US troops.  Which should, again, call into question the notion that a mere influx of troops would be a key determinant in such a struggle - just as the surge in Iraq was vastly oversold, so too the Afghan variety will fail to achieve its enunciated goals.

Unfortunately, the myth of the successful surge in Iraq led to the idea that it could, then, be replicated in Afghanistan.  Just combine more US troops with some COIN doctrine and, voila, success!

Speaking of which, Iraqi civilians are, once again, dying in large numbers every month.

Comments

[bobbyp]

A sane country after 9/11 would have legalized drugs and invaded Saudi Arabia.

But nooooooooooooooo........

[Eric Martin]

heh

[cleek]

heckofa job, foreign policy establishment

[Ugh]

Dude, The Surge won the Iraq war for the US of A, all these post-win dead Iraqi civilians is the other side working the refs in case we have USA-Iraq III: The Thrilla in Fajilla.

And of course The Surge Two-Electric Boogaloo didn't work in Afghanistan, George W. "Turbo" Bush did his best backspin at the end of the original surge, no cheap Barry sequel could top that. Plus no one break dances anymore.