by Eric Martin
In a move that, although impolitic, should come as no surprise given Pakistan's interests in neighboring Afghanistan, Pakistani military sources gave Defense Secretary Gates the public brush off. Gates is in Pakistan seeking cooperation from Pakistan in going after the Afghan Taliban, and Pakistani military officials went public with Gates in-country with the news that they have no plans to launch such an offensive.
Pakistan's army has said it will launch no new offensives on militants in 2010, as the US defence secretary arrived for talks on combating Taliban fighters.
Army spokesman Athar Abbas told the BBC the "overstretched" military had no plans for any fresh anti-militant operations over the next 12 months.
Our correspondent says the comments are a clear snub to Washington.
The US would like Pakistan to expand an offensive against militants launching cross-border attacks in Afghanistan.
Twelve months from now, the answer will be the same. Because doing so runs counter to Pakistan's interests - or, rather, what certain highly influential factions perceive as Pakistan's interests. In the end, the result is the same from our perspective. Steve Hynd sketches the lay of the land:
The Pakistani military has a deep interest in Afghanistan, as a possible position of strategic depth in the event of a war with India, and doesn't see the threat of such a war ever going away. Using Afghan territory in such a way is simply not possible as long as there are US and allied troops in Afghanistan and so the Pakistani military sees its long-term interests best served by those troops leaving. Whether that is best accomplished by US or Taliban "success" appears to be one of the great internal debates within Pakistan's elite, with much of the ISI and military coming down on the side of the militants they have backed for three decades.
None of which is helped by Pakistani fears that the Obama administration has quietly decided to favor India while publicly proclaiming impartiality. When Holbrooks goes to India and says that India is "a tremendously important participant in the search for peace" in the region or Gates goes there and says that India has been restrained in its response to terror attacks launched from Pakistan and wouldn't be likely to show such restraint again, Pakistan's military leadership hears tacit favoritism. When Gates suggests an Indo-Afghan-Pakistan council, Pakistan's military hears an open invite to India to outflank.That has two immediate effects: it pushes Pakistan into recalcitrance in dealing with the Afghan Taliban and other imperfectly-controlled proxy assets and it pushes Pakistan further into China's orbit in a dynamic that sets a US/India axis against a Sino-Pakistani one for regional domination.
And while Pakistan is by no means a democracy at present - with a feudal elite entrenched in power and military chief Kayani the de facto kingmaker and deciderer-in-chief behind the curtain - other issues such as US drone attacks on Pakistani soil and US strings attached to Pakistani aid have meant that there is popular antipathy to Pakistan's fighting what is seen as America's war for it. Given the geopolitical dynamic and Pakistani views of military reality, it could be expected to foot-drag on any action against its proxies anyway - as it always has done since Bush's Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage told Pakistan that it would be "bombed back to the Stone Age" if it didn't play ball - but that popular anger gives plenty of political cover for more obvious recalcitrance.
To the extent that our plans in Afghanistan hinge on Pakistan taking an active role in clearing out Afghan Taliban sanctuaries, it's time to come up with a Plan B - one that addresses those of Pakistan's interests/anxieties that lead its military to refuse cooperation on this front, or one that simply accepts that lack of cooperation as a fait accompli and adjusts accordingly.
UPDATE: The New York Times reports on the details of that "nice offer" Gates made to the Pakistanis:
The United States will provide a dozen unarmed aerial spy drones to Pakistan for the first time as part of an effort to encourage Pakistan’s cooperation in fighting Islamic militants on the Afghanistan border, American defense officials said Thursday.
However, still no cooperation.
like the reference to Miller's Crossing - Coen brothers' best film prior to No Country for Old Men
Posted by: tarylcabot | January 23, 2010 at 12:07 AM
I must be a geezer. I had to look up "give the high hat" on urbandictionary.
Posted by: wades | January 23, 2010 at 11:28 AM
Funny wades, I think it's actually an old-timey turn of phrase.
And tarlycabot, I couldn't agree more. It's one of my faves from them - probably their most underrated film.
Posted by: Eric Martin | January 23, 2010 at 12:52 PM