Dorgan and Dodd to Retire, Cancel Each Other Out

By Lindsay Beyerstein

Yesterday, two Democratic senators unexpectedly announced that they would not seek reelection in 2010: Byron Dorgan of North Dakota and Chris Dodd of Connecticut.  As I wrote in the Weekly Pulse this morning, the two announcements probably cancel each other out in terms of Democratic senate seats.

Dorgan's seat is probably an easy pickup for the GOP. As a 30-year incumbent, Dorgan was probably the only Democrat who could win a Senate race in deep red North Dakota. Whereas, Chris Dodd's resignation greatly increases that chances that Democrats will hang on to a senate seat in heavily Democratic Connecticut. Dodd is personally unpopular for his role in the financial crisis, so getting him out of the way is a boon to Democrats.

TPMDC has brand new figures from Public Policy Polling:

Dodd and Blumenthal were each tested against the three Republican candidates: Former Rep. Rob Simmons, former Worldwide Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, and financial analyst and Ron Paul activist Peter Schiff. Dodd trailed Simmons by 44%-40%, was tied 43%-43% with McMahon, and led Schiff by 44%-37%. By contrast, Blumenthal leads Simmons by 59%-28%, is ahead of McMahon by 60%-28%, and leads Schiff by 63%-23%.

The added silver lining in Connecticut is that state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has announced that he will run for the seat as a Democrat. Blumenthal is a crusader for reproductive rights. He led a coalition of states to sue the Bush administration for expanded "conscience clause" rules that would have allowed HHS employees to deny care that violated their religious mores. He also successfully sued the federal government to enforce the Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances Act in the late nineties.

Comments

[Bob Mackey]

Thanks Lindsay--great stuff!

[Slartibartfast]

I'm having this strange feeling of deja vu. It's almost as if this exact same question has been asked, recently.

[fishbane]

I get what you're saying, but "cancel out", in this context, is a net loss of one seat.

There is a difference between cheerleading and reality.

[Eric Martin]

Yeah Slarti, I'm starting to think Mr. Metzger is one of our resident trolls in hiding.

[Nombrilisme Vide]

There is a difference between cheerleading and reality.

Well, yes. Which is rather the point. If neither Senator had retired, Dorgan would have probably kept his seat, and Dodd would have probably lost his. Now, Dorgan's old seat will probably flip, and Dodd's old seat won't. There's no net loss here - we go from being on track for the Dems to lose one seat and hold another to holding one seat and losing another. The status quo is not "Dems hold both".

[bob mcmanus]

There's no net loss here

A little. South Dakota will be harder to win back than Connecticut would have been, had the loss happened there.

Also a real loss in power. Dorgan lost on drug re-importation, but he was willing and able to fight Rahm and Obama. Blumenthal, like Franken, will be told to mind his junior business. Blumenthal, presuming he had been in this year, would not have been able or willing to take down HRC as an act of equal brinkmanship to Nelson re Stupakian amendment

Koeven(>) from SD will also be junior, but that won't matter as much in the Republican caucus.

[Duvall]

Which is rather the point. If neither Senator had retired, Dorgan would have probably kept his seat, and Dodd would have probably lost his.

That's a forced reading of the polls cited above. Dodd had a hard campaign ahead of him, but he had another eleven months for people to forget the Countrywide matter and for the economy to improve. At best, the Democrats have gone from a sure thing and a toss-up to a likely win and a likely loss, and that's a net negative. It's really not close.

[Irked]

First Dan on How Not to Spy, now this?

What is this site now, Facebook?

[Eric Martin]

Irked: that was a troll.

[Catsy]

Blumenthal, like Franken, will be told to mind his junior business.

Because that's been ever so effective at muzzling Franken.

[Irked]

Ah -- sorry about that