by Eric Martin
The New York Times, to its credit, attempts to dispel some of the stubborn misinformation concerning the interchangeability (or lack thereof) of the Afghan Taliban faction and Pakistani Taliban faction. Contrary to popular and pervasive fictions, these two groups are quite distinct in terms of strategy and objectives.
As it devises a New Afghanistan policy, the Obama administration confronts a complex geopolitical puzzle: two embattled governments, in Afghanistan and Pakistan; numerous militias aligned with overlapping Islamist factions; and hidden in the factions’ midst, the foe that brought the United States to the region eight years ago, Al Qaeda.
But at the core of the tangle are the two Taliban movements, Afghan and Pakistani. They share an ideology and a dominant Pashtun ethnicity, but they have such different histories, structures and goals that the common name may be more misleading than illuminating, some regional specialists say.
“The fact that they have the same name causes all kinds of confusion,” said Gilles Dorronsoro, a French scholar of South Asia currently at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
This week, Mr. Dorronsoro said, as the Pakistani Army began a major offensive against the Pakistani Taliban, many Americans thought incorrectly that the assault was against the Afghan Taliban, the force that is causing Washington to consider sending more troops to Afghanistan. [...]
Alex Strick van Linschoten, a Dutch researcher who lives in Kandahar, in the heart of the Afghan Taliban’s power base, said that while leaders of the two Taliban groups might say that they share common interests, the two movements are quite separate.
“To be honest, the Taliban commanders and groups on the ground in Afghanistan couldn’t care less what’s happening to their Pakistani brothers across the border,” said Mr. Strick van Linschoten, who has interviewed many current and former members of the Afghan Taliban. [...]
Mr. Dorronsoro...said the Afghan Taliban were a “genuine national movement” incorporating not only a broad network of fighters, but also a shadow government-in-waiting in many provinces.
By comparison, he said, the Pakistani Taliban were a far looser coalition, united mainly by their enmity toward the Pakistani government. They emerged formally only in 2007 as a separate force led by Baitullah Mehsud under the name Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or Students’ Movement of Pakistan.
Illuminating the divergence, fissures have begun to develop between the two as a result of their conflicting agendas:
In fact, the recent attacks of the Pakistani Taliban against Pakistan’s government, military and police, in anticipation of the army’s current campaign into the Pakistani Taliban’s base in South Waziristan, may have strained relations with the Afghan Taliban, said Richard Barrett, a former British intelligence officer who tracks Al Qaeda and the Taliban for the United Nations.
The Afghan Taliban have always had a close relationship with Pakistani intelligence agencies, Mr. Barrett said recently. “They don’t like the way that the Pakistan Taliban has been fighting the Pakistan government and causing a whole load of problems there,” he said.
The Afghan Taliban, whose group is by far the older of the two forces, have been led by Mullah Muhammad Omar since he founded the movement in 1994. They seek to regain the power they held over most of Afghanistan before being ousted by the American invasion of 2001.
In an interview this week, speaking on the condition of anonymity, an Afghan Taliban commander expressed sympathy for the Pakistani Taliban, but said, “There will not be any support from us.” He said the Afghan Taliban “don’t have any interest in fighting against other countries.”
“Our aim was, and is, to get the occupation forces out and not to get into a fight with a Muslim army,” the commander added.
It would be foolish in the extreme to ignore the fundamental differences between the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban factions, and the significance each holds for Pakistan. In this, we can inform our understanding by observing the policies of the Pakistanis - who are able to grasp, and take advantage of, these distinctions.
For Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban are a useful proxy, and a means of creating regional balance with India. The Pakistani branch is a nuisance in that Pakistani factions have begun to clash with Pakistani state forces in recent years, with such clashes in reaction, at least in part, to armed incursions in their territory by US and Pakistani military. Thus, key elements of the Pakistani state continue to support the Afghan Taliban, while the Pakistani factions are targeted (but even then, only half-heartedly) by that same state.
Because the Afghan Taliban is animated by a desire to regain control of Afghanistan, because it has little interest in conquering Pakistani territory (and, more importantly, it lacks the ability) and because it recognizes that its survival is dependent on support from the Pakistani government, the Afghan Taliban does not and will not turn on its benefactor in order to take up the cause of the Pakistani militants. If anything, tensions have grown between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliba.
Establishing a baseline understanding of the make-up and motivations of the various militant factions is essential to devising a plausible strategy for stabilizing the region. However, while necessary, such knowledge is not exactly sufficient. The ability of any occupier to successfully manipulate such a complex and overlapping matrix of tribes, regional powers and other factions is dubious at best. For the United States, situated half a world away, and at a severe disadvantage in terms of regional understanding and perception amongst the local population, the odds are even longer. From the same Times piece:
For the United States, regional experts say, the long-term challenge is to devise policies that peel away as many militants as possible from both Taliban forces, isolating Al Qaeda and other hard-liners and strengthening the Pakistani and Afghan governments. But for a non-Muslim superpower, widely resented in the region, that is a tall order. [emphasis added]
“At the moment the ground isn’t very well prepared for splitting the militant groups,” said Stephen Biddle, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who spent a month last summer in Afghanistan. “The security trends are running in their favor.”
While Biddle is right about the difficulties that the United States faces even if leaders on the ground and in Washington develop a deeper understanding of the web of militants, it was Biddle himself who recently penned a piece arguing for prolonging the occupation based on, what seems, a fundamental misreading of the motivating principles of those same groups. Said Biddle:
If the Taliban regained control of the Afghan state, their ability to use the state’s resources to destabilize the secular government in Pakistan would increase the risk of state collapse there. Analysts have made much of the threat that Pakistani Taliban base camps pose to the stability of the government in Kabul, but the danger works both ways: Instability in Afghanistan also poses a serious threat to the secular civilian government in Pakistan. This is the single greatest U.S. interest in Afghanistan: to prevent it from aggravating Pakistan’s internal problems and magnifying the danger of an al-Qaeda nuclear-armed sanctuary there.
To which I responded:
But Biddle overstates the quality of the threat posed by Afghan Talibs in terms of destabilizing the Pakistani state. The [Afghan] Taliban have long been on the receiving end of Pakistani government largess. They have been cultivated as a proxy and ally useful in terms of creating a strategic redoubt in case of conflict with India, and in further establishing an anti-Indian front in the region. In fact, much of their tenacity and success in Afghanistan today (and previously) is attributable to the ongoing support of their Pakistani patrons.
That is the nature of the Afghan Taliban: a local phenomenon benefiting from the generosity of foreign benefactors. As such, the Afghan Taliban enjoys limited reach and power - especially if it were to actually turn on those same foreign benefactors. Along those lines, what exactly are the Afghan "state's resources" that are supposed to threaten Pakistan (whose military and security forces are far more numerous, vastly better equipped, well trained, etc)? The Afghan state (and various militant factions) have limited economic and military resources - and much of what they have comes from...Pakistan.
This tail is just not capable of wagging the dog, and the Pakistani government knows it. That is why that government continues to support those same Afghan Taliban factions that we are, according to Biddle, supposed to be protecting Pakistan from. Maybe they know something we don't?
Maybe indeed.
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