Did Bushies seek to disregard terror alert guidelines on eve of election?

By Lindsay Beyerstein

(Hello, Obsidian Wings readers. I'm the newest member of ObWi and I'm truly honored to be here. Thanks to Publius and the team for inviting me. A bit about me: I'm a freelance journalist based in New York City. I also write for the Media Consortium, UN Dispatch, In These Times, and for my personal blog, Majikthise.)

Former Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge claims in his forthcoming memoir that Sec Def Don Rumsfeld and AG John Ashcroft unsuccessfully pressured him to raise the terror alert on the eve of the 2004 election.

Four days before the vote, someone dropped a previously unseen video message from Osama Bin Laden on al Jazeera's doorstep. Bin Laden told the citizens of the United States that neither John Kerry nor George Bush could protect them, but he didn't issue any specific threats.

Ridge claims Bush officials pressured him to raise the threat level, even though the tape contained no specific threat. Officially, an orange alert indicates a "high probability" of terrorist attacks. According to DHS guidelines adopted in 2003, orange alerts are reserved cases where there is specific, credible, detailed evidence of an imminent attack on American soil.

"We certainly didn't believe the tape alone warranted action, and we weren't seeing any additional intelligence that justified it. In fact, we were incredulous," Ridge wrote "... I wondered, 'Is this about security or politics?'" (Keep in mind that the panel that advised Ridge on threat levels included not only Rumsfeld and Ashcroft but also notorious intel politicizer George Tenet, who was responsible for fixing the facts around the Bush administration's policy of invading Iraq.)

Former national security adviser Fran Townsend confirmed that there was an intense pre-election conference call to discuss raising the threat level in response to the Bin Laden tape. However, she characterizes the call as a debate over how to interpret the intel. Rumsfeld's spokesman also confirmed that Rummy pushed for an eleventh-hour threat hike on the call.

Ridge's critics are demanding to know why he didn't come forward sooner. While the charges of attempted election tampering are new, but Ridge complained as early as 2005 that administration officials pressured him to raise the threat level based on flimsy evidence. (Ridge announced his resignation on Dec 1, 2004, less than a month after the election.)

As several commentators have pointed out, Ridge previously denied to journalist Eric Lichtblau that politics influenced decisions about threat warnings. The exchange appears in Lichtblau's new book "Bush's Law." Sadly, page 274 is not previewable on Google Books or Amazon. Since Lichtblau's book covers the whole Bush administration, it's important to know when this interview took place. And strictly speaking, politics didn't influence the threat level in Nov 2004--Ridge prevailed and the threat level stayed put.

Administration officials now claim that the Bin Laden tape wasn't the sole basis for proposing a last-minute orange alert. But there's little doubt that if officials had presented any evidence of a specific plot, Ridge would have raised the threat level as a matter of course. The man signed off on some pretty lame orange alerts in his time, including two over the summer of 2004.

But how exactly did Ridge know that Rumsfeld and Ashcroft had political motives? Maybe they were just being extra-cautious. We'll have to wait until the book comes out next month get Ridge's whole story.

However, I found an interesting item in the New York Times archive... I think it lends credence to the hypothesis that top Bush officials wanted an orange alert for political reasons. In Sept 2003, DHS imposed tougher standards for tweaking the terror level. Under the new rules, the threat level would only be raised if there was "credible, detailed evidence of an imminent terrorist attack on American soil," Phil Shenon reported:

The officials cited the new guidelines in explaining why the administration decided not to raise the alert level this week despite a pair of events that could have easily justified a heightened alert in the past: Thursday's anniversary of the Sept. 11 terror attacks and the broadcast of a new videotape suggesting that Osama bin Laden and his chief lieutenant were alive and plotting catastrophic attacks. [NYT]

In 2003, officials told Shenon that the latest Osama tape didn't meet their standards for an orange alert, even though its release coincided with the anniversary of 9/11.

Yet, Ridge says that Rumsfeld and Ashcroft wanted him to up the threat level on the eve of the 2004 election in response to the new tape, even though it contained no specific threat--let alone credible, detailed evidence of an imminent attack on American soil.

Assuming that the rules outlined in the Times were still in effect, Bush officials were asking ridge Ridge to break with precedent and DHS's own guidelines. If Rumsfeld and Ashcroft were pressuring Ridge to change the rules, that should raise our index of suspicion.

Comments

[Ben Alpers]

Welcome to ObWi, Lindsay! What an excellent addition to the team. I've read your posts on Majikthise and elsewhere for years. I look forward to seeing them here in the future!

[Lindsay Beyerstein]

Thanks, Ben. Good to be here.

[publius]

Yes, welcome!! We're all very excited that you decided to join. It will also be interesting, I think, to have an actual journalist's perspective here. I mean, what does Eric Martin guy _really_ know about anything anyway?

I'll have a more formal welcoming post later -- but great to have you here!

[Gary Farber]

Welcome, Lindsay. You're a fine choice.

[hilzoy]

Yay!

[jonnybutter]

Welcome to ObWi! Have enjoyed Majikthise and glad to see you here.

[jdog]

I agree with all above. And I am delighted to see a "Yay!" from Hilzoy.

With hopes for a continuing thoughtful online community . . .

[Doctor Science]

Wow, what a great choice for ObiWi! Good going, all, and looking forward to a long and mutually fulfilling relationship.

*beat*

If you know what I mean ...

[Bob L.]

Welcome, Lindsay. An outstanding blog gets even better. Now, if we can only get Hilzoy to post more than one word at a time.

[Free Lunch]

Welcome, Lindsay. I have to add to the cheers for your addition to this blog.

Bob, it was a good word from Hilzoy.

[Bernard Yomtov]

Welcome, Lindsay.

[liberal japonicus]

Yay! I'm a big fan who has never left the commenting confines of ObWi, though I ruefully realize that I haven't visited for a while. Please post some of your photos here, maybe as a weekly open thread. The boys tend to forget things stuff like that.

[OCSteve]

Hi Lindsay and welcome. I have to say I don’t know you or your track record. So please don’t take anything that comes below to heart. I’ve just been here for a while, and I’m pretty much *way* opinionated. Anyone here left of Reagan will tell you that. Some will tell you much worse. I anticipate that you will be a great front pager – the kitty would select no one less. So what follows is directed at the management, not at you. Please keep that in mind…

To the kitty…

We have an obvious replacement for Hil. OK – not Hil – no *one* person can do that. But who around these parts equals her research skills? Who can go toe to toe for days arguing any point and come out on top? Duh?

Look – I gave up commenting for health reasons. I lurk. I see. I have not a bad word to say against Lindsay – I have only read one post of hers – this one.

So – what about *Gary*? Spell it out. Many regulars have voted for Gary for Front Page. I did, and you all know how we get along.

There is room for two here. It would likely take 10 new posters to pick up Hilzoy's slack. What gives? Hilzoy was plucked out of comments to the front page. That worked out pretty darned good I would say.

Kitty - Gary. Now.

[Meditative_Zebra]

We've got Majikthise on here? Sounds like a coup to me.

Welcome Lindsay.

[Lindsay Beyerstein]

Thanks for the warm welcomes, everyone. I look forward to getting to know everyone.

OCSteve, you won't hurt my feelings. Hilzoy is irreplaceable. But if it's any consolation, I have pretty good research skills. Last week I co-taught a workshop on investigative techniques for bloggers with Bill Bastone of the Smoking Gun, Esther Kaplan of the Nation, and the executive director of Investigative Reporters and Editors.

[John Thullen]

Hello and welcome Lindsay!

I guess you'll have to get used to me. A question, so we get the pronouns right from the get-go -- are you male or female?

OCSteve: My head has exploded 38 times since you left. I hope your head is no longer exploding. Thing is, my blood pressure is fine.

[russell]

Lindsay is the bomb. Welcome!

OC splendid to hear from you. You are missed.

Thullen, having your head explode is the new black. It's all about how you wear it, and you wear it well.

[Doctor Science]

John: The pronoun of choice seems to be "her", though I have found "ze" (with objective "hir") to work very well for unclear situations.

[ral]

Lindsay, welcome!

I demand that I am "ral."

[gwangung]

Welcome, Lindsay...may you follow well in the distinguished path of the other front page posters....

[Neil the Ethical Werewolf]

Hooray! A new philosopher! Well done, ObWi management.

[Uncle Kvetch]

Wonderful to see you here, Lindsay!

[Pithlord]

Great choice. Welcome, Lindsay.

[Marty]

"If Rumsfeld and Ashcroft were pressuring Ridge to change the rules, that should raise our index of suspicion."

My index of suspicion is now raised, so what next? This seems to ba a pretty benign subject in general, the alert level wasn't raised so we could even complain the Rumsfeld's won the argument.

In case no one has noticed, these guys aren't there any more.

This reminds me of David Letterman spending the first three months of the new administration openly admitting he couldn't come up with any good jokes about Obama so he recycled Bush jokes.

But maybe this is important somehow and I'm missing it.

Oh yeah, Welcome Lindsay.

[hairshirthedonist]

But maybe this is important somehow and I'm missing it.

Spot on.

[russell]

But maybe this is important somehow and I'm missing it.

Some of us found ourselves at the end of the last 8 years with a lifetime's worth of outrage to vent.

So maybe stuff like this just gives us a chance to bark at the moon.

Consider it a public service. It keeps us from going out and stocking up on AR-15's and ammo.

[Uncle Kvetch]

My index of suspicion is now raised, so what next? This seems to ba a pretty benign subject in general, the alert level wasn't raised so we could even complain the Rumsfeld's won the argument.

In a healthy democracy, revelations like these can provide a salutary moment of accountability. A lot of people raised suspicions about the political manipulation of terror warnings at the time. They were soundly dismissed as paranoid lunatics by Good Serious Mainstream Centrists everywhere.

Now, when it turns out that the paranoid lunatics were right, and the Good Serious Mainstream Centrists were wrong, you might think that this would be a good moment to think about just how these GSMC's got to the positions of power and influence that they hold, and whether they deserve the deference that is accorded to them. It might even lead some people to start thinking that maybe the "mainstream" isn't really all that "mainstream" after all.

But fortunately for those GSMC's, we don't have a healthy democracy. In our political environment, being right for the wrong reasons is a far, far greater crime than being wrong for the right ones.

So in that sense, Marty's response is the correct "mainstream" one--this is yesterday's news. Nothing to see here...move along.

[Slartibartfast]

Welcome, Lindsay!

[Slartibartfast]

So – what about *Gary*? Spell it out.

Seconded, but put as a request. I (and a few others, I think) have also recommended Gary as a front-pager. What I'm curious about, is:

1) If this request (multiple, actually, as I'm not the only one making it) has been considered.

2) If it's been considered, has it been rejected? Or is it still under consideration?

I think that in fairness to Gary and pretty much anyone else that's interested, it would be a good thing to know what's been decided. I don't need to know why.

Slightly related, it would also be good to know whether the password has been changed, and if it's been decided that I will no longer have access. If that's the case, I just want to know. If not, and my (mainly janitorial) contributions are still wanted, please send me a password update. You know my email address.

[Batocchio]

Welcome! It's a good fit. I am glad, though, that you clarified at Majikthise:

I won't be giving up Majikthise. Some of my posts will appear on ObWi and Majikthise, but there will continue to be Majikthise-only content.

[Jay C]

Welcome, Lindsay!

Appropriate congratulations on the new gig!

(Oh, and John T.: when you've reassembled your head again, check out the picture on the Majikthise site, you'll note that Lindsay is definitely a "she")

Slarti: try pretending to be Moe Lane: that always seemed to work for Hilzoy....

[bedtimeforbonzo]

Lindsay: Since it's obvious the color-coded terror warnings can be manipulated -- and since it's the ultimate garbage-in, garbage-out kind of thing anyway -- isn't time we get rid of them altogether?

Welcome to The Kitty.

Is your photography strictly news-oriented? If not, would you ever take nature shots or animal photographs (dogs?) and put them in an open thread? I love this stie for its photography; the author is a young Swedish woman who chronicles life in Niger working for the Eden Foundation with her spirited dog Sheba -- better than it sounds.

[Slartibartfast]

Slarti: try pretending to be Moe Lane: that always seemed to work for Hilzoy....

That's what is broken, for me, Jay C.

[Billy Weaver]

Saw you on CNN.com... how did you keep from saying, "Ben, you're a complete idiot"? That was impressive on your part.

Great to find this blog. I look forward to reading more.

So welcome to Obsidian Wings... I'm a new comer as well... heh.

As for your article, are you really surprised? Time and time again, the Bush administration has bent rules, changed rules, and out right broke rules to benefit their agenda.

[Donald Johnson]

Welcome Lindsay. I've been a sporadic reader of your blog and you'll be a great addition.

But on the subject of additions, since so far it's been the conservatives (ironically) endorsing Gary as an ObiWi poster, I thought it'd be fair and balanced to have one member of the Chomskyite faction weigh in with the same opinion. I've always wondered why Gary wasn't part of ObiWi all along--he's almost as much of an institution around here as hilzoy and many of his comments are as good as most of the front page posts.

[Nell]

Welcome, Lindsay! I've always enjoyed your blog; great to know you'll be here.

Thanks, OCSteve and Donald for bringing up Gary as a front-pager. I can't find the recent thread where I added my support for that idea (thinking that maybe something came up late in the thread that nixed the idea, though I can't imagine what that would be other than Gary himself declining).

[Fred]

Raising the threat level wasn't going to effect the election much. And if it did, you couldn't be sure which direction it would push.

Bin Laden's tape was probably also an attempt to influence the election, although that was likewise not totally predictable in it's effect.

That is, some would interpret higher threat as a Bush failure, and some as a need for more "Toughness"...

Of course, these sort of things are wrong and need to be aired out.

[bedtimeforbonzo]

"Raising the threat level wasn't going to effect the election much. And if it did, you couldn't be sure which direction it would push."

Fred: I don't think you could be more wrong. This was 2004, not 2008, and national security was viewed as Bush's biggest strength. What's more, I believe Kerry came out of his covention ahead of Bush. The threat of terroism was the one tool that always seemed to work for the Bushies, who used it shamelessly.

[Turbulence]

Raising the threat level wasn't going to effect the election much. And if it did, you couldn't be sure which direction it would push.

Actually, according to terror management theory, reminding people about terrorism makes them more politically conservative and thus more likely to vote for conservative political leaders.

Bin Laden's tape was probably also an attempt to influence the election, although that was likewise not totally predictable in it's effect.

The CIA team charged with finding bin Ladin seemed pretty sure that it was an attempt to boost Bush's chances, at least according to Suskind:

On 29 October 2004, Osama bin Laden released his"October surprise", an eighteen–minute tape attacking Bush. The CIA analysed the tape and concluded that "bin Laden's message was clearly designed to assist the president's re–election." That day, at a meeting at the CIA, acting director John McLaughlin remarked, "Bin Laden certainly did a nice favour today for the president."

But I'm not sure why you're talking about the bin Ladin tape. Osama does not work for the US government. Anymore. So how is he relevant to the discussion?

[AndrewBW]

Welcome Lindsay. I know you'll be a great add to ObWi.

But while we're on the subject of additions to the blog may I say one more thing? While I rarely agree with Von, I find his posts thought provoking and well-written. However I really would like to see another intelligent conservative added to the roster. I'm not sure who I'd nominate for that position, but I hope The Powers That Be will give it some thought.