by hilzoy "The World Health Organization rushed to convene an emergency meeting Saturday to develop a response to the "pandemic potential" of a new swine flu virus that has sparked a deadly outbreak in Mexico and spread to disparate parts of the United States. Health officials reported that at least eight students at a private high school in New York City had "probable" swine flu. They also confirmed three new cases -- two in Kansas and one in California -- bringing the total number of confirmed U.S. cases to 11. The president of Mexico, where the outbreak has killed as many as 81 people, issued an order granting his government broad powers to isolate patients and question travelers. (...) The virus, for which there is no vaccine for humans, has nearly brought Mexico City to a halt. Normally congested downtown streets in this city of 20 million were almost empty Saturday, and of the few people who ventured outside, many said they did so only out of necessity. Soldiers posted at subway stations handed out face masks to passersby from the back of armored vehicles. Some pedestrians covered their mouths and noses with scarves and rags. "We can't escape the air," said Antonio Gonzáles, 56, who wore a surgical mask outside a public hospital. "If it was something in the food, we'd have a chance." The Mexican government reported more than 1,300 suspected cases of the virus, which mixes animal and human strains of flu. Bars and nightclubs, schools, gallery openings and sporting events were cancelled until further notice. Authorities advised people to wash their hands regularly and avoid the customary greeting of kissing on the cheek. The government issued a decree giving the Health Ministry power to enter people's homes, close public events, isolate patients, and inspect travelers and their baggage. The Associated Press reported that 24 new cases of the flu emerged Saturday in Mexico."
Thanks for posting this. It might be the start of a pandemic, but it is more likely just a bit of a preview for the inevitable flu pandemic that lies in our future. In the latter case, the good that comes from it (not to diminish at all the tragedy of those who have died from this outbreak) will be better preparation for that eventuality.
Posted by: idlemind | April 26, 2009 at 02:27 AM
Call me a cynic but I expect this to be abused politically by the immigration hogs..eh..hawks*. We will also hear that it is G'd's punishemnt for [enter obsession of choice].
*Yesterday it was leprosy (and possibly AIDS), so don't say this is projection on my part.
Posted by: Hartmut | April 26, 2009 at 03:18 AM
I doubt many people sick with the flu are going to be walking across our border. Dying in the attempt, maybe, but it's a fairly strenuous way to enter illegally. Nor would even a reasonable legal level of traffic between the US and Mexico effectively block a flue pandemic. So it would be pretty silly to link the issue to illegal immigration.
Stock enough food and other supplies so that you don't have to go to the grocery for a month or two, and rubber gloves and face masks for when you absolutely have to go out, and you ought to be able to wait out the worst of it, if it does get bad. These are sensible precautions that are relatively cheap.
Posted by: Brett Bellmore | April 26, 2009 at 09:01 AM
Masks only work if you wear them almost all the time. [...] Intent-to-treat analysis showed no significant difference in the relative risk of ILI in the mask use groups compared with the control group; however, Either wear it night and day, in or out of the house, more or less 100% of the time, or don't bother.
Posted by: Gary Farber | April 26, 2009 at 09:22 AM
WTF?
Masks only work if you wear them almost all the time.
Either wear it night and day, in or out of the house, more or less 100% of the time, or don't bother.Posted by: Gary Farber | April 26, 2009 at 09:23 AM
Cheery reminder:
Posted by: Gary Farber | April 26, 2009 at 09:25 AM
Grist has a piece up today which suggests that the source of the infection is a Smithfield Corp. hog-raising and slaughter facility in a place called Perote, outside Mexico City.
Theirs was the first mention I'm aware of which links a specific locale to the origin of the disease, or links any corpoRat deeds to the outbreak.
Posted by: Woody | April 26, 2009 at 09:46 AM
"Either wear it night and day, in or out of the house, more or less 100% of the time, or don't bother."
That's not what it said. It was a study of houses with somebody already infected in them. Of course you'd have to wear one all the time in such an environment. This doesn't imply you'd have to wear one in your sleep to avoid catching the flu if you go out of the house.
Posted by: Brett Bellmore | April 26, 2009 at 10:06 AM
Brett: I doubt many people sick with the flu are going to be walking across our border. Dying in the attempt, maybe, but it's a fairly strenuous way to enter illegally. Nor would even a reasonable legal level of traffic between the US and Mexico effectively block a flue pandemic. So it would be pretty silly to link the issue to illegal immigration.
Yes, it would be pretty silly to do that. (Nobody rides a rickety hobbyhorse into the ground till it's sawdust like Michelle Malkin does. Nobody.)
Posted by: matttbastard | April 26, 2009 at 10:12 AM
"This doesn't imply you'd have to wear one in your sleep to avoid catching the flu if you go out of the house."
You're forgetting sleepwalkers.
:-)
Posted by: Gary Farber | April 26, 2009 at 10:20 AM
i see you provided a link for downloading a pdf about the flu.
i hate clicking on that sort of thing. how do it know it won't contain a virus?
Posted by: kid bitzer | April 26, 2009 at 11:39 AM
@kid bitzer:
I'm no expert, but I have read that most pdf viruses take advantage of Adobe Reader's weaknesses, so changing to another software, like Foxit Reader, should be the best option.
Posted by: Nemo_N | April 26, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Not seeing much evidence in these numbers that the virus is less virulent in the US. In Mexico the mortality rate is not even 1 in 15 of the reported cases while only 11 cases have so far been reported in the US. I would also think that it would be quite likely that many non-serious cases in Mexico would have gone unreported.
Posted by: RogueDem | April 26, 2009 at 12:22 PM
thanks, nemo_n
so you're figuring that because it's called 'foxit', it won't get swine flu?
i don't know--the virus has already shown it can jump species.
i just don't want to take any chances, is all.
Posted by: kid bitzer | April 26, 2009 at 01:16 PM
I'm no expert, but I generally no a joke when I see it.
Posted by: Gary Farber | April 26, 2009 at 02:32 PM
you're in the no as always, gary. i new you wood be.
Posted by: kid bitzer | April 26, 2009 at 03:09 PM
Woody @ 9:46 a.m.:
Not that I am a fan of factory farming by a long shot, but if I remember my Jared Diamond correctly, humans and domesticated critters have been passing germs back and forth since the beginnings of domestication.
Posted by: JanieM | April 26, 2009 at 03:30 PM
"I doubt many people sick with the flu are going to be walking across our border."
Plus, we don't need to worry about those who are infected but who won't get sick and could spread it to others or those who are infected and who'll get sick after they get into the U.S. No worries!
I wonder, is there any limit to the "liberal" support for illegal activity and those who profit from it? To answer my question, no.
P.S. My comments are deleted so quickly from WaMo it's hilarious. Here are some of the comments they deleted.
Posted by: NoMoreBlatherDotCom | April 26, 2009 at 05:33 PM
NMBDC: Did you just call Brett Bellmore a liberal?
Posted by: Jim Parish | April 26, 2009 at 05:54 PM
For the record, I'm not in favor of swine flu.
Posted by: d'd'd'dave | April 26, 2009 at 05:58 PM
Posted by: NoMoreBlatherDotCom | April 26, 2009 at 06:41 PM
At least so far, it appears that the known cases in the U.S. and Canada have more to do with tourism than illegal immigration. And if (still a big if) it turns out to be a deadly pandemic, the wide geographic distribution of those cases suggest the cat is already out of the bag. That's not going to stop racist paranoia, of course, which needs little if any excuses.
Posted by: idlemind | April 26, 2009 at 07:52 PM
As a way of avoiding the cytokine storm caused by a top-notch immune system, I intend to launch a regimen of late nights and strenuous drinking. Where my health is concerned, no sacrifice is too great.
Posted by: Mike Schilling | April 26, 2009 at 08:21 PM
Wasn't google supposed to solve all viral pandemics?
Posted by: Ahsan | April 26, 2009 at 10:49 PM
No, that was Facebook.
Posted by: russell | April 27, 2009 at 01:06 AM
Ever tried to wear a protective mask for extended periods of time? Especially in warm weather that's not my idea of fun.
Posted by: Hartmut | April 27, 2009 at 04:11 AM
Yeah, I have. When we visited the folks back in Michigan for Christmas, several people in the house came down with that winter's flu, which was really nasty. And we had our 2 month old along.
Set up an isolation ward for the little guy, used face masks and hand sanitizer religiously, and he stayed well while the flu went through the rest of us.
Posted by: Brett Bellmore | April 27, 2009 at 06:59 AM
Hartmut, there won't be much fun in the outside anyway, and you'll stick at home as much as possible. Better to buy a few surgical masks as long as they are available. Not comfortable, of course, but you will need them when dealing in the public.
Posted by: pff | April 27, 2009 at 11:16 PM
I was just saying that a necessity to wear the mask constantly will lead to most people not doing it for the inconvenience.
Btw, do they work without extra impregnation with biozides?
Btw, I guess masks are already out and hand disinfectants too (and unfortunately I do not work at the hospital anymore since my civil service ended).
Posted by: Hartmut | April 28, 2009 at 05:53 AM
Posted by: Outbreak Alerts | April 28, 2009 at 06:38 AM
Yes, the nutjobs are on it: The whole swine flu scare is just a diversion to push the nomination of Kathleen Sebelius through (so say Concerned Women for America nad Glenn Beck).
Actually, I did not suspect/expect that specific rubbish (but I hear also that it is already used for immigration bashing too)
Posted by: Hartmut | April 28, 2009 at 07:18 AM
How gloriously crazy...there's certainly a conspiracy here, as we've seen this movie before! On DIM BULB: http://tinyurl.com/c6bqdn
Posted by: Jonathan | April 28, 2009 at 08:32 AM
Hartmut, there are nutjobs on all sides (though as usual the right-wing nuts seem to be in more powerful and prominent positions). I heard a radio caller (on a sane, non-Limbaughvian show) ranting about how Donald Rumsfeld owned the North American distribution rights for Tamiflu and this scare was all about profits for him and other Republicans.
Posted by: KCinDC | April 28, 2009 at 08:46 AM
If you're going to get a mask... at least get a full face mask that covers your eyes too. We got the Breath of Life Mask from Technon. Check out their website at http://www.ProactiveAndPrepared.com
Posted by: Jason49 | April 28, 2009 at 09:06 AM
Oh, I forgot that Rummy was in the Obama administration ;-)
From the left I'd expect slightly different claims (of the bioweapon research gone wrong tpye). Let's put it this way, the drug companies will of course try to make a buck on this but I doubt that they are behind the scare (and only real whackos* would believe that they spread the virus for that purpose).
Wake me when flying pigs are named as the main vector (hey, it's a hybrid of avian/porcine/human flu).
My apology, if this comes over as snarky but there are already a lot of people dead, so I have not much tolerance for conspirationists of either political persuasion. But the left ones can usually be ignored (in the US. Europe is different there)
*this type of conspiracy theory can be found on both ends of the spectrum and I'd be surprised, if noone came up with it.
Posted by: Hartmut | April 28, 2009 at 09:16 AM
While we are at absurdities: the Israeli Ministry of Health has announced that the term swine flu should not be used because pigs are unclean from the Jewish point of view. Instead it should be designated Mexican flu. The WHO concurs because the precise origin of the virus is still not fully clear.
Posted by: Hartmut | April 28, 2009 at 09:26 AM
Ok, that's just crazy: Why would you object to naming a disease after something 'unclean'? You'd think it would be a perfect fit.
Posted by: Brett Bellmore | April 28, 2009 at 09:34 AM
If you have swine flu just say out loud
now Jesus I believe and I receive you in my
heart please heal me. Remember God
loves you for more help please go to
leroyjenkins..com
Posted by: Tabetha | April 28, 2009 at 02:43 PM
It seems that china and japan are doing more about this out break than the usa. But I think that we should all be on the safe said by washing our hands regularly.
Posted by: rae | April 28, 2009 at 05:15 PM
this viral strain has been traced to an alkaida based group
Posted by: steve | April 28, 2009 at 05:40 PM
Steve, how did you get this? As an employee of the centers involved you should not have this info nor should you talk about it.
Rest assured this group is localized to mexico and we are watching.
Posted by: connie | April 28, 2009 at 05:47 PM
Check out this website http://www.swine-flu-tracker.com/ that tracks the spread of swine flu, it really puts things in perspective.
By the way, amazing article. Thank you.
Posted by: morigan | April 29, 2009 at 07:17 AM
Unbelievable how many people comment material unrelated to the core of the matter.I guess, its the way things are.However the posting is amazing and informative.I am about to travel to South America, including Mexico, around June and I am wondering how things will be,but I will travel even if Al Kaida,Rumsfeld & the his folks are behind it.Should you really look for credible info,please check the World Health Organisation.Another good source I found was from activagers.
Posted by: Gordon | April 29, 2009 at 11:17 AM
It would appear that factory farming may be the most likely cause of the current outbreak (just as it was for the avian flu several years ago). For more see Priming the Pump of a Swine Flu Epidemic at Nature Network.
Posted by: Eric | April 29, 2009 at 12:45 PM
I think that this is the goverments way of taking us over totally and make a one world goverment... I dont know about you all but I dont want a RFID chip in my hand. I dont want to be made to have deadly vaccines.. WAKE UP PEOPLE .. look up NEW WORLD ORDER online.. fema death camps...
Posted by: monica labranche | April 29, 2009 at 06:38 PM
This site is actually quite funny - but doesn't ANYONE find it suspicious that it is swine/swine/human/bird flu combined - and does ANYONE really know how many people in mexico have it or even have died from it? It is my experience that the mexican government is neither accurate or forthright in statistics....
Aside from the political problems with "undocumented workers" or "immigrants".....realspeak = illegals, should we really continue to allow people across the border in hoardes, even if it is to seek better treatment? The borders are flooded with people trying to escape. Do you want it in your school, grocery store, fast food joint? The schools in Texas are closing at an alarming rate!
Posted by: melle | April 29, 2009 at 08:25 PM
for anyone who's interested in more info on swine flu, here's a pretty good compilation of swine flu FAQ from various sources - CDC, WHO, red cross, as well as other helpful info.
Posted by: Joe | April 29, 2009 at 09:05 PM
No.
But I am a trained scientist.
Posted by: gwangung | April 29, 2009 at 09:23 PM
According to Effect Measure it's not entirely clear that it is swine/bird/human combination.
And anyhow, so what?
Posted by: JanieM | April 29, 2009 at 09:41 PM
You know it's an epedemic when Mexico starts issuing toilet paper and hand soap. Things have really gotten out of hand. Be afraid, very afraid.
Posted by: Bytes33 | April 29, 2009 at 11:53 PM
"Aside from the political problems with 'undocumented workers' or 'immigrants'.....realspeak = illegals, should we really continue to allow people across the border in hoardes, even if it is to seek better treatment?"
As someone upthread noted, tourists (i.e. American citizens) -- not illegals -- is what seems to have brought the swine flu into the United States.
Does that mean we should disallow American citizens the right to foreign travel? You never know what one may pick up abroad.
Melle, for good and for ill, globalization is here to stay.
Also, the fact that this particular strain has characteristics of swine/human/bird flu combined is what has scientists particularly grappling for answers.
Posted by: bedtimeforbonzo | April 30, 2009 at 12:21 AM
wow. this is the strangest thing i've ever heard of.
i was considering getting myself a mask, but how would i eat? that's my main issue; i need to eat, or i'll pass out.
Posted by: Pie | April 30, 2009 at 11:16 AM