About that Referendum...

by Eric Martin

There has been increasing chatter lately that the Maliki government may move to postpone - indefinitely - the national referendum on the SOFA slated for late July of this year.  Last week, in an interview with Middle East Progress, Sadiq al-Rikabi, a senior advisor to Maliki, launched a rather audacious trial balloon:

I think that, considering the American president’s speech about the U.S. commitment for responsible withdrawal, we do not feel a referendum is necessary. The decision will need to be taken in parliament, as the referendum is currently enshrined in law, and so if it is to be cancelled, we need a new law to say so. But even if the referendum is held on its assigned date, I’m not worried at all about the approval of the SOFA.

As Marc Lynch suggests, this statement indicates a certain level of comfort on the part of the Maliki government with the Obama administration's long-term designs.  Further, that the referendum - which was useful as a means to garner favorable terms for the SOFA, as well as adherence thereto (if the terms were too favorable to the US, or if the US behaved in a way indicating its lack of respect for the SOFA, it would likely be defeated via the referendum) - may have outlived its utility from Maliki's perspective.

Despite Rikabi's assertions of confidence that the SOFA will gain the population's approval if put to a vote, there are reasons to question that certitude.  As Spencer Ackerman reports, ABC News/BBC/NHK polls conducted in Iraq don't show overwhelming support for the presence of US forces - or for their ability to provide security:

Someone forgot to tell the Iraqis to be grateful to the United States for invading and destroying their country before turning things around somewhat in 2007 to mitigate the initial destruction. This year, 69 percent of Iraqis said the United States is doing a poor job in Iraq; it was 70 percent last year. And all the good will that does exist pretty much owes to the Kurdish love affair with America, which rivals that of Norman Podhoretz: 90 percent of Sunnis say the United States is doing a bad job — so much for the idea that the post-Awakening Sunnis are U.S. allies — 67 percent of Shiites say the same thing, and those numbers are pretty much unchanged from last year. And despite the security gains, more Iraqis this year say the United States was wrong to invade — 56 percent compared to 50 percent last year. Asked about the Status of Forces Agreement’s timetable for withdrawing U.S. forces by 2011, only four percent of Sunnis and 16 percent of Shiites want the United States to stay longer; 61 percent of Sunnis and 47 percent of Shiites want the United States out faster. Fifty-seven percent aren’t concerned that security will spiral downwards after a U.S. withdrawal.

The lack of confidence in US forces is nothing new.  Musings on Iraq has been tracking the Pentagon's polls in recent months, which have consistently shown that Iraqis do not give the lion's share of the credit to US forces for providing security in their neighborhoods (just 3% in August and 2% in October).  With key segments of the Iraqi population this skeptical about the value of US forces, it is little wonder that the Maliki government is beginning to talk about putting off - or scuttling - the July referendum (even if, with Kurdish support, the SOFA might still pass).

However, attempting to do so could create a few problems.  For one, the referendum grew out of Grand Ayatollah Sistani's demand that the SOFA be approved by a broad swathe of Iraqi society, and any decision to call it off would have to receive his blessing (or at least, not his strenuous objection).  If Sistani trusts the intentions of the Obama administration, and is satisfied with the terms of the SOFA that was adopted, it is certainly conceivable that he would look the other way if a legislative effort were made to cancel the referendum. 

Even without Sistani's pushback, however, such a move by Maliki and his political allies could create space for opposing political factions to use the issue to their advantage - especially ahead of the parliamentary elections to be held at the end of this year.  Recall, Maliki used his tough stance during the SOFA negotiations to burnish his nationalist credentials and garner support for his political allies during the recent regional elections - even changing the name  of the SOFA to highlight the imposed withdrawal deadline and the temporary nature of the continued presence (Full name: "Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq On the Withdrawal of United States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of Their Activities during Their Temporary Presence in Iraq").

A perceived retreat could give succor to those political groups most hostile to the US presence - or those willing to use the issue opportunistically.  Of course, the Obama administration could give Maliki some political cover by making a significant downpayment on withdrawal in the coming months.  Which would have other benefits as well (such as reducing the cost of operations and getting a head start on a more complete withdrawal that will occur down the road).

Comments

[Gary Farber]

"Last week, in an interview with Middle East Progress"

Eric, every time I click that link, my virus protection program alerts me that there's an HTML script virus there. It inserts the "HTML/Crypted Gen HTML script virus" into Firefox's cache (and presumably into the cache of whatever other browser you use).

I know you want to link to the text there, but giving a link to a virus is a bad idea.

[Eric Martin]

Gary: the same thing just happened to me, though not earlier. Weird. I'm taking down the link.