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February 09, 2009


I'll believe it only after he wins. I had read that Khamenei and the council had decided to support Ahmadinejad. If so that makes Khatami's chances of winning low. While the Iranian people can vote for whom they choose, the resources of the revolutionary guards (and I think state support as well) will behind the councils choice.

The other issue you didn't mention was corruption. The existing government is widely regarded as corrupt, although Ahmadinejad himself is considered to be clean. I think his reputation of uncorruptedness swept him into office the first time around. It is still likely to be important in this election.

Agreed on all fronts bigTom.

I certainly didn't say that he would win, or that he was even the favorite to win. But one can hope. Cautiously.

JFTR, Eric: do you have any polling (or links to said polling) to indicate who IS the favorite in the Iranian election?

Or it it too far ahead yet (and/or projection from the instant-opinion culture of Internet politics over here)?

Oh, and as for bigTom's other point: if "corruption", in general, is/will be an issue in Iran, how does Khatami fare in public perceptions? "Clean" or "dirty"?

Looks all a bit like Kremlin astrology to me.
Apart from that, I think the election in Israel could have a significant impact. If Bibi N. and rabid Avigdor "even worse than the US senator" Lieberman win, the general political climate could make another turn for the worse in the whole region.

Jay C: I don't have that polling info, but if I come across it, I'll pass it along.

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