Yes, but Can They?

by Eric Martin

The first round of provincial elections in Iraq since 2005 are slated for tomorrow, January 31.  The always insightful Joost Hilterman of the International Crisis Group has a nice summary of some of the issues in play (the ICG's full report (pdf) can be found here).  These elections could lead to major shifts in Iraq's political alignment - at least on the local level - since the last provincial elections were boycotted by Sunni and Sadrist elements who may now seek to make their votes heard.  It should be noted, however, that the Sadrists will not be competing as a party in these elections either, but rather have decided to endorse a handful of independent, technocratic candidates instead. 

While there is widespread disenchantment with the performance of religious parties and other parties that have thus far manned the local governing institutions, it remains unclear to what extent that discontent will translate into electoral success for the candidates not aligned with these parties - or, even if such changes occur, to what extent that will represent trends to watch in upcoming national elections many months down the road. 

The entrenched parties have been able to wield patronage dollars, and access to security forces, in order to expand their levels of support.  As a couple of Iraqis interviewed by Anthony Shadid put it:

"We'd like to vote for someone who doesn't have to put blast walls around his house," Tamimi said. Only independent candidates don't, he added -- technocrats and secular candidates, whom he termed intellectuals. Those people should rule, he insisted.

Jaafar Abdullah, a cousin, shook his head, dismissing what he deemed naivete.

"But the independents don't have their own gangs behind them that can kill."

Which serves to underscore the point that even in Post Surge Victorious Iraq!, the state still does not possess a monopoly on the use of violence - so much so, that even the Prime Minister has taken to establishing a base of militia power (Tribal Support Council's and a special Counterterrorism Force that report directly to him).  In terms of ongoing bloodshed, roughly 300 Iraqis a month have been killed in political violence since July (this, a marked improvement over preceding months), not to mention a coalition soldier every other day (again, a vast improvement).  Conditions are still so unsettled that six candidates in the upcoming elections have already been assassinated.

Depending on the election results, and how the various factions in Iraq view the legitimacy of the outcomes, violence could spike - especially in the northern regions where Kurdish factions are competing with Sunnis, Turkomen and, increasingly, the Maliki government to determine the fate of Kirkuk, Mosul, Nineveh as a whole, and other provinces and locales adjacent to the Kurdish region.  Clashes could also flare up in the Sunni regions that do not directly abut Kurdistan, where the incumbent Sunni parties are seeking to fend off challenges from Awakenings groups looking to increase their share of the political pie.

Which says nothing of the Shiite south, where the major Shiite factions (Dawa, ISCI, the Sadrists and Fadhila) remain locked in an ongoing power struggle.  Matt Duss and Peter Juul have recently compiled a must-read report (pdf) that provides a lucid, concise history of the Shiite political movement in Iraq, an accounting of the current players, and what to watch for going forward.  An excellent primer, that goes beyond the sloppy media narratives that plague the reporting on several issues, for those looking to gain an understanding of this facet of Iraq's political life.

Let us hope that these elections go off without any more violence, and that they can mark yet one more small step in the direction of reconciliation and a return to normalcy in Iraq.  The Iraqi people deserve that and so much more after all they've endured.  I'm probably somewhere between cautious optimism and pessimistic resignation in terms of the prospects.

Comments

[Nell]

Treatment of the press during early voting (for hospital staff, security personnel, and some prisoners) was a discouraging omen (h/t JaninSanFran):

According to a local organization to protect journalist rights, 64 journalists' rights were violated across the nation. In Basra, Babil and Anbar journalists were beaten or prevented from entering polling sites by security forces. Their camera equipment was confiscated and in many cases they were cursed at with foul language.

In the southern port city of Basra at Al Mina center where prisoners were voting, 15 journalists tried to cover the vote. They were beaten and guards cursed them as they forcibly confiscated or destroyed their equipment, the journalist association reported.

[Fraud Guy]

Somehow, I don't see that kind of dedication in our press. Most seem to prefer to have their press releases in electronic form to make it easier to cut and past.