by hilzoy
I'll be liveblogging the debate as soon as it starts.
9:02: And so it begins. I wonder whether Tom Brokaw talks that way all the time, and if so, whether his voice ever gets on his nerves.
9:05: Economy. Obama: this is the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, caused by Republican economic philosophy. First step: rescue package. Step two: rescue package for middle class. Help with mortgages, for state and local governments, with infrastructure, health care.
9:08: McCain: Energy independence (?), taxes, stop spending in Washington. (??) We have to "do something about home values". McCain would order Treas. Sec. to buy up all those bad mortgages and renegotiate them. (???)
9:10: Brokaw: Who for Treas. Sec.? McCain: Maybe Buffett, maybe Meg Whitman, but someone people identify with and trust. Obama: Warren Buffett would be a possibility. Key: Treas. Sec. must know that it's not enough to help those at the top.
9:14: Question: what in bailout bill will help ordinary people? McCain: Main Street was hurting. I suspended campaign, went back to protect taxpayers. Real catalyst for this was Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with encouragement of Sen. Obama and his cronies. (Oddly, doesn't mention Rick Davis.) Mentions that bill he co-sponsored. Rescue package not enough; we need to buy up bad mortgages, and stand up to Fannie and Freddie.
9:16: Obama explains credit crunch, and effects on ordinary Americans, to questioner. Says McCain is wrong; cause was not Fannie/Freddie; it's deregulation. Lists various things he did, and various things McCain did to support deregulation. Mentions Rick Davis. But back to how it will impact questioner...
Brokaw: are you saying economy will get much worse before it gets better? Obama: no. But we have a lot of work to do.
9:18: McCain mentions buying up all the mortgages again. I would love to know the details of this.
9:21: Question: How can we trust you with our money when both parties got us into this? Obama: A lot of blame to go around. History: when Bush came into office, there were surpluses; now deficits. Debt: way up. No one is completely innocent here, but we've had biggest increases in our history, and Sen. McCain voted for 4 of 5 Bush budgets. I am going to work on crucial issues -- energy, etc. -- but I also propose spending cuts. But I'll be working for you.
9:23: McCain: I have a record of bipartisanship. Sen. Obama has never taken on his own party. I have fought earmarks, etc. Obama is proposing lots of new spending. He voted for every increase in spending that I saw come across the Senate floor (??) Look at our records. Then look at our proposals. Not new spending, but things that keep people in their jobs is another. (Plainly, McCain has not read his Keynes.)
9:25: Brokaw: how would you prioritize health care, energy, entitlement reform? (Why are these the only choices?) McCain: I can do all three, because I am bipartisan.
9:27: Obama: we have to prioritize. Must do energy, for the sake of the economy and national security. Education, and something I missed. Will go through spending, but also tax policy. Hits McCain's corporate tax cuts.
9:30: Qu: What sacrifices will you ask of Americans? McCain: we will have to examine programs and cut some. I have cut defense spending. I will examine earmarks. I will freeze spending, except for vets, defense, "and some other vital programs." (I wonder which?)
9:33: Obama: after 9/11, the country was willing to come together. But we were never called to service. Energy: we will all need to think about how we use energy. We need more production, but we can also start thinking, as individuals, about our choices. And government can help make sure that you can weatherize your home, etc. Also: young people especially want to serve; we should provide opportunities, so that our troops are not the only ones who do this.
9:36: Obama hits on McCain's tax cuts for the rich again. Tough to ask a teacher to tighten her belt when people who are making much more than her are living high on the hog. McCain's spending freeze: using a hatchet when you need a scalpel.
9:38: McCain: "Nailing down Sen. Obama's tax proposals is like nailing jello to the wall. There have been 5 or 6 of them; I'm sure there will be another." He's going to raise taxes.
9:39: Question: Brokaw: will you give Congress at date certain to reform Social Security? Obama: We must reform entitlements. Back to taxes: "the straight talk express lost a wheel on that one." I want to provide a tax cut for 95% of Americans. If you make $250K a year, your taxes will not go up by one dime. Sen. McCain wants to give $300billion in tax cuts, 2/3 to the rich. That's not right.
9:42: McCain: we know how to solve Social Security: bipartisanship. I can do that; Obama never has. Medicare: we need a commission. Back to taxes: it's about rhetoric vs. record. Obama has voted 94 times for higher taxes. Look at records.
9:45: Environment? McCain: I care about climate change. We need nuclear power. I was on Navy ships that had nuclear power plants! We can reprocess spent nuclear fuel. Etc. Hydrogen! Battery powered cars! Millions of jobs! We are the best innovators! We can do this!
9:47: Obama: this is a big challenge, but also an opportunity. We can do it but we need to invest.
9:49: Brokaw: do we need a Manhattan Project, or a million little garages doing research? McCain doesn't get question; says we need federal research. Goes on about energy bill. He's rambling.
9:51: Qu: should health care be treated as a marketable commodity? Obama: huge burden on families, small businesses. We have a moral imperative, and an economic one, to deal with health care. Explains his plan.
9:52: Then Obama criticizes McCain.
9:54: McCain: we need efficiency. Obama talks about government will do this, government will do that. He'll impose mandates. If you are a parent and you don't get health care for your kids, Sen. Obama will fine you. My $5k plan will cover everyone who doesn't want a gold-plated, Cadillac policy, like covering hair transplants. (He actually said this.) Small businesses want to cover employees, we should help. (By removing the tax exemption for health insurance? Huh?)
9:59: Health care: right or responsibility? Obama: right. Then: he corrects McCain on his plan. Notes that McCain voted against expansion of SCHIP.
10:01: How will economy affect our ability to act as a peacemaker? (I space out briefly.) McCain: You need good judgment. I have it. Obama does not. We don't have time for on the job training.
10:04: Obama goes after McCain's judgment on Iraq. Iraq has strained us: our troops, and also our economy. It prevents us from doing things we could otherwise do, like Darfur. That will change.
10:06: Brokaw: what is Obama doctrine on humanitarian intervention? Obama: when we see genocide occurring, we should consider acting. But we need allies. Consider Darfur. African Union forces are there; we could help with logistics, but only if we can mobilize int'l community and lead.
10:08: McCain: Obama had bad judgment on Iraq. We should consider humanitarian intervention. But we need to have a "cool hand" (why McCain thinks this an argument for him eludes me.) I know those situations. The security of our men and women are my top priority, after national security, and I will take it seriously.
10:10: Pakistan: should we attack across borders? Obama: tough situation, due in part to invading Iraq. AQ attacks across the borders. We must change Pak. policy. No coddling leaders who make deals with the Taliban. We should expand support for democracy, non-military aid. But if we have bin Laden in our sites, we should act.
10:12: McCain criticizes Obama's talking about this stuff. History: big mistake: we washed our hands of Afghanistan after Russians were defeated. Now things are bad in Afghanistan. We should use Petraeus' strategy in Afghanistan. Talk softly, carry big stick.
10:14: Obama: "Bomb Bomb Iran" not an example of speaking softly. Neither is calling for annihilation of North Korea. I agree that we should speak responsibly; that ain't it.
McCain: "Not true." I understand what it means to send young men and women into harm's way. Blah blah. I'll get Osama bin Laden. I know how to do it. I'm going to act responsibly, as I've acted responsibly throughout my career.
10:18: Afghanistan? Obama: we need more troops. We need to work with Karzai government; it will have to do better by its people. McCain: Petraeus has just taken over; he'll be responsible for strategy. We need better command structure, plus we need surge. Obama will still not admit that he was wrong about the surge.
10:21: Russia? McCain: We won't have another Cold War. But I looked into Putin's eyes and saw KGB. But Russia is not living up to our expectations. We should bring pressures to bear. Leverage, with allies.
10:22: Sorry, I spaced a bit. -- We have to be strategic, see around the corners, not be reactive.
10:27: Israel: If Iran attacks Israel, would you be willing to commit troops to support Israel, or would you wait on UN approval? McCain: we would not wait for approval. Challenge: Iran continues on path of acquiring nuclear weapons. Not just a problem for Israel. Obama wants to negotiate without preconditions. League of democracies. (It's like McCain's greatest hits.)
10:29: Obama: unacceptable for Iran to have nukes. We will not give UN a veto. However, we have to use all available diplomatic options, conserve energy so Iran has less money, that changes their cost-benefit analysis. It's true that I think we should have direct talks not just with friends but with enemies.
10:30: What don't you know, and how will you learn it? Obama: Michelle could tell you. -- Challenges immense. It's never the challenges that you expect, it's the ones you don't expect that consume your time. America gave me opportunities. Are we going to pass that dream on to the next generation? (Plainly, he has decided to give a closing statement rather than answering the question.)
10:33: McCain: What I don't know is what will happen in the future. Americans are hurting. I know what it's like in dark times. I know what it's like to rely on others for hope in tough times. I believe in this country, its future, its greatness, I'm asking for another opportunity to serve. The great honor of my life was to put my country first. (Apparently, McCain made the same decision.)
FINIS
McCain "Fannie and Freddie, Obama Cronies" - dials flat or negative. Good to see.
Posted by: Pooh | October 07, 2008 at 09:13 PM
No, no, no. McCain is pushing the idea that we need to prop up housing prices. This is utterly wrong. House prices must fall until they're back in line with incomes. More, McCain is also beating up on Fannie and Freddie. That doesn't follow. If you want house prices to go up, you have to loosen the reins on the GSEs. You can not both bash them, and advocate propping up house prices.
Posted by: J. Michael Neal | October 07, 2008 at 09:17 PM
(Oddly, doesn't mention Rick Davis.)
Give him a chance. He got to it a moment later.
Posted by: Meditative_Zebra | October 07, 2008 at 09:18 PM
Give him a chance. He got to it a moment later.
I think that was hilzoy snarking that McCain didn't mention Rick Davis.
I don't know how you guys watch this stuff, btw.
Posted by: Ugh | October 07, 2008 at 09:22 PM
I'm not sure Obama should have gone that far out on the limb with regards to net spending.
Then again, I'm not sure that McCain really wants to say A) the system is broken, but B) I've worked across party lines with said system.
Oops, "Liberal big spending" = dials tanks.
Posted by: Pooh | October 07, 2008 at 09:22 PM
Barack Obama supports pork-barrel earmarks. Pass the word.
Posted by: The Modesto Kid | October 07, 2008 at 09:23 PM
Oh man, got to drink now.
Posted by: The Modesto Kid | October 07, 2008 at 09:23 PM
Oh, god. The dials are going to kill me.
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 09:25 PM
MC -looks down on a questioner who happens to be African American and says, “you probably never heard of freddie mac…”
Posted by: cooper | October 07, 2008 at 09:27 PM
Obama name-checks 9/11? Uh-oh...
Posted by: Anarch | October 07, 2008 at 09:31 PM
I don't know how you guys watch this stuff, btw.
The debates come in a pretty terrible format, but they're the only debates we get.
Tangentially, one of my favorite proposals to come out this year's campaign was when McCain suggested he would introduce something like Prime Minister's Questions. Wouldn't it be great if our leaders actually had to tell us what they're doing and what they're plans are?
Posted by: Meditative_Zebra | October 07, 2008 at 09:31 PM
And Obama mentions clean coal again...*bangs head against desk*
Posted by: Chris M. | October 07, 2008 at 09:33 PM
I have to say, Obama's kinda hurting me right now. McCain's clearly winning in my book, even if I know he's lying through his teeth.
Posted by: Anarch | October 07, 2008 at 09:35 PM
Lesson of the dials so far: independents are democrats
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 09:36 PM
Anarch - why you think?
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 09:37 PM
Worst.
Moderator.
Evar.
Posted by: Anthony Damiani | October 07, 2008 at 09:39 PM
He's monotonic and stumbly; his charisma is misfiring; and, of course, McCain is lying through his teeth but doing so charismatically. Brokaw's not helping anything, of course, but (as my gf points out) that's why McCain likes the format: he can spew BS without any fear of contradiction.
Posted by: Anarch | October 07, 2008 at 09:40 PM
9:41
Dueling boilerplate - both men have just run thru a talking-point twice now.
And Yeah, Tom Brokaw sucks at this,
Posted by: Jay C | October 07, 2008 at 09:43 PM
I wish Obama tackled the social security question. McCain paid lip service to the idea (yeah! another commission!) still, it's an issue I wish was better explored.
Posted by: alchemist | October 07, 2008 at 09:45 PM
Is the phrase, "My friends," annoying everyone else as much as it's annoying me?
Posted by: J. Michael Neal | October 07, 2008 at 09:49 PM
Is it just me or is Tom Brokaw pretty lousy at this?
Posted by: Meditative_Zebra | October 07, 2008 at 09:49 PM
independents are not democrats when it comes to offshore drilling!
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 09:50 PM
Ah, ok, Obama's warming up a bit. That's better.
Posted by: Anarch | October 07, 2008 at 09:50 PM
Ah, it's not just me.
But in all fairness it's at least as much the format's fault as it is Brokaw's.
Posted by: Meditative_Zebra | October 07, 2008 at 09:51 PM
Why is Tom Brokaw so bad at this? He keeps complaining at the candidates, and he's pushed that whole "Social security crisis ohnoes!" crap. Seriously, worst moderator ever.
Posted by: Nate | October 07, 2008 at 09:54 PM
Anarch - oh good. I thought I was going to be forced to do a frequency analysis.
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 09:54 PM
Brokaw is just parroting that warm mushy Washington consensus. Where all things bipartisan are good and noble, and where entitlement funding 30 years down the road is a grave problem but a 3/4 trillion annual defense bill is not to be mentioned. Where the rest of the world is total ungreatful for the bombs we dropon them and the resouces our corporations exploit.
If he didn't believe and say these things he would not be moderating the debate
Posted by: Fledermaus | October 07, 2008 at 09:55 PM
So, I just rewatched the part where McCain calls Obama "that one" again. The younger black guy who asked the second question is sitting directly behind Obama, and he totally does a double take. Am I the only one caught this?
Posted by: Pooh | October 07, 2008 at 09:57 PM
Obama's response to McCain about health insurance and care is very strong.
Posted by: The Modesto Kid | October 07, 2008 at 09:57 PM
sorry... i can't take my eyes off the dials. But why would independents react more negatively to McCain's complaints about mandates?
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 09:57 PM
Heathcare: right, privilege or reposnsibilty?
For once, a clear and differnt response from the candidates.
The answers are clear, the program details less so.
Posted by: Jay C | October 07, 2008 at 09:58 PM
"But did we hear the size of the fine? (chuckle)"
Posted by: The Modesto Kid | October 07, 2008 at 09:59 PM
My friends, these are not the changes we've come to the table to address in our revised and extended remarks on the record of bipartisan partisanship in which we believe we can do better to help bring the American United States of the people to serve and protect and defend the things that matter most to those who would assist in the rebuilding of the broken bonds of despair and neglect upon which so much tragedy and that the crestfallenness we can only hope is behind is in the past.
Posted by: Ugh | October 07, 2008 at 10:00 PM
"Did we hear the size of the fine that Obama said didn't exist?"
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 10:00 PM
McCain has the Amazin' Strobe Tie again.
Posted by: J. Michael Neal | October 07, 2008 at 10:00 PM
Wait, didn't McCain not oppose Lebanon on the grounds that he wasn't in Congress yet?
Posted by: Anarch | October 07, 2008 at 10:01 PM
woohoo! he's hitting the "he doesn't understand" thing.
you dopes been schooled... Obama style.
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 10:03 PM
Ohio men don't like the idea of having allies.
Posted by: J. Michael Neal | October 07, 2008 at 10:04 PM
Geez, Ugh's parody at 10:00 actually reads better (gibberish tho it is) than any of McCain's actual speech. Scary.
Posted by: Jay C | October 07, 2008 at 10:08 PM
If McCain is only talking to his "friends", is anybody listening?
Posted by: cdc | October 07, 2008 at 10:08 PM
For once, I agree with McCain completely. We DO need a cool hand at the tiller. Of course the cool hand is...not McCain.
Posted by: Pooh | October 07, 2008 at 10:08 PM
Okay - the dial people are morons.
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 10:08 PM
well, at least they react negatively to snark.
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 10:12 PM
thank god Obama finally mentioned mccains impromtu bomb Iran song
Posted by: Fledermaus | October 07, 2008 at 10:15 PM
The thing about "the dial people", david, is that they have to be *undecided*. So even if they're not naturally stupid, they're low-info voters, people who've been busy with other stuff, who've been putting off thinking about this junk for months and months.
That may make them sane, of course. Sometimes paying too much attention to things you can't control is just buying psychological trouble.
Posted by: Doctor Science | October 07, 2008 at 10:16 PM
oh yeah.... he forced mccain to defend himself on the bomb iran thing.
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 10:16 PM
The dial people are the same ones from debate to debate, aren't they? They should not be low-information anymore.
Posted by: bperk | October 07, 2008 at 10:17 PM
Use Petraeus's strategy? The one that led to "peace through ethnic cleansing" or the one that magically produced results after the extra troops had surged back home? Or maybe the one that the commander in Afghanistan has repudiated? Or all three, since The Surge(tm) fits all three descriptions?
Posted by: Platypus | October 07, 2008 at 10:18 PM
Doctor Science - My impromptu hypothesis about undecideds is that they are essentially waiting to see which way the wind is blowing. In the same way that a conservative might wait to see what Limbaugh says before making up his mind, an undecided waits to see what everyone is going to say.
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 10:20 PM
Brokaw's "Evil Empire" question a new low in Teh Stoopid.
Posted by: Jay C | October 07, 2008 at 10:26 PM
Nice little moment there for McCain with the ex-Navy guy.
Posted by: Pooh | October 07, 2008 at 10:26 PM
ARGH MY FRIENDS YOU ARE NOT MY FNKING FRIEND.
Posted by: Pooh | October 07, 2008 at 10:27 PM
"Is Russia still an Evil Empire?" WTF? Tom Brokaw is really freaking embarrassing.
Posted by: Nate | October 07, 2008 at 10:27 PM
bperk - do you have the dial people's names and addresses? There are a few things I'd like to tell them.
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 10:30 PM
Israel: If Iran attacks Israel, would you be willing to commit troops to support Israel, or would you wait on UN approval?
Can we just admit Israel to the fncking Union and get it over with? Jeebus.
Posted by: Ugh | October 07, 2008 at 10:30 PM
Oh for... you know, I'm actually pretty pro-Israel and even I'm starting to question why this keeps popping up in debates about AMERICA's future. (Argh. Don't answer that.)
Posted by: Micala | October 07, 2008 at 10:31 PM
Wait, if Israel attacks Iran, don't we have alliances with them that would allow us to help them attack back, if it were a real war? The UN is about preventing aggressive wars (like Iraq) not about preventing countries from defending themselves.
Not that Iran would attack Israel in most any realistic scenario, but if they did, it wouldn't even be a security council matter.
Posted by: Nate | October 07, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Is it mean for me to say "LOL" when McCain says "our generation"?
Posted by: Pooh | October 07, 2008 at 10:33 PM
Is it over yet?
Posted by: Ugh | October 07, 2008 at 10:33 PM
Gag, why do they (uh, Tom Brokaw that is) ask stupid questions like that. What is your weakest X. And nobody ever answers them straight anyway. Grr.
Posted by: MobiusKlein | October 07, 2008 at 10:34 PM
Just ended, with Tom Brokaw complaining the candidates were in front of his teleprompter?
Weirdest moderator ever.
Posted by: Nate | October 07, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Note that Drudge put a poll up on "who won" before the debate even ended. McCain's winning, of course.
Posted by: Ugh | October 07, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Ninety minutes of my life I'll never get back. At least I spent part of it cleaning the cat litter box out, so it wasn't a total waste.
Posted by: Donald Johnson | October 07, 2008 at 10:36 PM
Thanks for liveblogging, hilzoy!
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 10:40 PM
F--- Drudge, it's another draw.
I.e., Obama will probably benefit he most, as nothing much will probably change in public opinion. Not from this yawnfest, anyway.
No "personality" question, though: something of a disappointment - nor anything on the level of the campaign itself. Too bad.
Posted by: Jay C | October 07, 2008 at 10:41 PM
Thank you, Hilzoy.
Also, looking over at Washington Monthly, there's over a hundred comments, this was much calmer here.
Posted by: Nate | October 07, 2008 at 10:42 PM
Anyone want to play "Guess how the pundits will spin this?" My guess is that essentially its a draw. The pundits wil say that McCain didn't stop the bleeding andObama didn't clinch the deal.
My own opinion is that McCAin did good by managing to avoid a psychotic break, that Obama sounded mad a couple of times but that's OK, that the questions were very good, to my sruprise, and that all in all thsi debagte won't mnake much difference. Obama will still be subastantially ahead in the polls afgter the effects of this debatge sink in.
Posted by: wonkie | October 07, 2008 at 10:43 PM
Sullivan:
10.33 pm. This was, I think, a mauling: a devastating and possibly electorally fatal debate for McCain. Even on Russia, he sounded a little out of it. I've watched a lot of debates and participated in many. I love debate and was trained as a boy in the British system to be a debater. I debated dozens of times at Oxofrd. All I can say is that, simply on terms of substance, clarity, empathy, style and authority, this has not just been an Obama victory. It has been a wipe-out.It has been about as big a wipe-out as I can remember in a presidential debate. It reminds me of the 1992 Clinton-Perot-Bush debate. I don't really see how the McCain campaign survives this.
Which makes me worry, of course, that McCain has turned the tide.
Posted by: Ugh | October 07, 2008 at 10:46 PM
Ugh -- I find your topsy-turvy contrarianism... strangely compelling. Instruct me more in the ways of blackwhite cynicism!
Posted by: Anarch | October 07, 2008 at 10:48 PM
i suck at judging how other people will react to debates, but i think Obama had this one, but only by a nose. McCain seemed a little too canned, and his age really showed as he was up walking around. for that matter, having slurry old Brokaw and McCain together made Obama look like a college kid.
Posted by: cleek | October 07, 2008 at 10:53 PM
Yeah, but John McCain used to debate with North Vietnamese bayonet at the Hanoi Hilton.
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 10:54 PM
I say, Andrew - pass us another snifter of cognac. Did anyone call Rich Lowry to see if he thought McCain winked at him?
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 10:59 PM
what wonkie said at 10:43 pm.
A boring debate, no real drama, no game changers.
Obama is ahead in the polls, McCain is running out of time. Whatever small advantage (if any) McCain might have gotten with some undecided viewers out of the debate will be far less than what he needed.
Posted by: ThatLeftTurnInABQ | October 07, 2008 at 11:04 PM
No, no, no. McCain is pushing the idea that we need to prop up housing prices.
JMN,
I interpreted McCain's remarks to mean that he is in favor of mortgage cramdowns - reducing the amount owed on the loan. That is a 180 degree reversal from McCain's previous policy and the only big news that came out of tonight.
Am I getting that totally wrong? I thought I heard McCain say at least twice that we need to reduce the size of existing mortgages. How can that mean anything other than cramdowns?
Posted by: ThatLeftTurnInABQ | October 07, 2008 at 11:08 PM
LeftTurn - I agree for the most part, especially since McCain set up the expectation that he was going to attack ferociously. But there were two strong moments - Obama's response to the "speak softly" thing, and his response to the "you don't understand" thing.
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 11:13 PM
BTW, I owe Tom Brokaw an apology.
He could have done a better job of moderating, but he was not conspicously biased in favor of McCain, as I expected.
Also, I thought the audience questions were noticeably more serious than the ones we normally get from the press. Less gotcha journalism and more "stick to the issues that matter to many Americans". Good job by the people who submitted questions. Can we replace the WH press corps with them?
Posted by: ThatLeftTurnInABQ | October 07, 2008 at 11:15 PM
TLTIA, I couldn't be sure (because McCain is woefully thin on specifics) but I'm fairly sure he completely reversed himself on a couple of issues, and completely invented a few others. As far as the mortgages are concerned... I've gotta be honest, I don't think he has a plan, just a bunch of soundbites tossed together in desperation. It's certainly nothing I've heard him say before, that's for damn sure.
david kilmer, did anyone else notice that McCain bungled the TR quote? He said "Talk softly" instead of "Speak softly"...
Posted by: Anarch | October 07, 2008 at 11:16 PM
david kilmer,
Agreed.
I just can't judge how these things go over with undecided voters any more. I'm too decided myself to be running an effective "undecided voter" simulation in my head.
In other words, I love when Obama has moments like that, but no idea if it is just me or not.
I also liked when he (Obama) took on the "Freddie and Fannie caused the mortgage crisis" lie rather than just deflecting on that topic. The GOP is trying to peddle some outrageous horse manure on this topic and it is royally pissing me off - nice to see that Obama didn't cave on that subject.
Posted by: ThatLeftTurnInABQ | October 07, 2008 at 11:21 PM
Anarch - I could be wrong, but I think McCain started with "walk softly" and corrected to "talk softly".
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 11:24 PM
As far as the mortgages are concerned... I've gotta be honest, I don't think he has a plan, just a bunch of soundbites tossed together in desperation. It's certainly nothing I've heard him say before
Me too - I did a double take when he first said it - a whuzzzzzat? moment. As far as I know this is the very first time that he has said explicitly that mortgages should be crammed down.
Time will tell if there is an actual plan here, or if it is just another another tactical media cycle oriented Hail Mary pass.
Posted by: ThatLeftTurnInABQ | October 07, 2008 at 11:26 PM
"Time will tell if there is an actual plan here, or if it is just another another tactical media cycle oriented Hail Mary pass."
Perhaps McCain will suspend his campaign, to begin personally buying up mortgages, thus putting country first.
Posted by: Gary Farber | October 07, 2008 at 11:29 PM
CBS snap poll has it 39%-27% Obama. It's weird that in the debates the people leaning towards Obama always see him as doing worse than the polls say. Nerves?
Here's the post-debate handshake that didn't happen.
And what the hell with the "that one" remark. That what? People have tried to come up with complicated reasons explaining why McCain couldn't look Obama in the eye in the first debate. McCain is just a racist, it's that simple. Where's his dark skinned kid? Any campaign commercials with "that one" in it? Why not?
Posted by: now_what | October 07, 2008 at 11:34 PM
LeftTurn - I noticed you were a little peeved about that. I never saw anyone spank Von on a thread like that before.
Posted by: david kilmer | October 07, 2008 at 11:37 PM
thus putting
countryCountrywide first.hmmmm, no not quite a winner. Needs more pep.
I've got it, how about:
"Bomb, bomb, bomb, Wall St."
Posted by: ThatLeftTurnInABQ | October 07, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Am I getting that totally wrong? I thought I heard McCain say at least twice that we need to reduce the size of existing mortgages. How can that mean anything other than cramdowns?
He explicitly said, several times, that the goal was to put a floor under housing prices. Now, we could both be right, and the answer is that McCain has no idea what he is talking about.
Posted by: J. Michael Neal | October 07, 2008 at 11:41 PM
I never saw anyone spank Von on a thread like that before.
Which thread? I must've missed it...
Posted by: Anarch | October 07, 2008 at 11:43 PM
About McCain's mortgage cram-down "plan": does anybody know what fraction of delinquent or defaulted mortgages have been owner-occupied primary residences, and how many have been "investment properties" that ended up underwater? Bailing out "homeowners" by renegotiating interest terms would be one thing. Rescuing "flip-this-house" investors by cramming down principal would be another.
--TP
Posted by: Tony P. | October 07, 2008 at 11:49 PM
dk,
Actually I really didn't go after von - I have a lot of respect for him and I deliberately left some room for him to clarify his statement. mckinneytexas was the one I unloaded on with both barrels.
Anarch - it was the "Another Reason Government Can Be Good" thread, my comments at Oct 6 3:52 pm and 4:36 pm are probably what dk is referring to.
Posted by: ThatLeftTurnInABQ | October 07, 2008 at 11:53 PM
Ugh--
As they say: all news is good news for John McCain.
Posted by: Anthony Damiani | October 07, 2008 at 11:54 PM
I'm pro-Israel (though no fan of Likudniks), but that Iran question was weird: if Iran attacks Israel would we defend it? Attacks how? Amphibiously out of the Persian Gulf, round the Arabian Peninsula and to Eilat? By conquering Iraq and either Jordan or Syria first? By digging a really long tunnel? What kind of freaking attack is this? Israel doesn't need American forces to defend its borders from Hezbollah or to secure its airspace, and if the attack is ballistic WMDs there won't be an issue of defending Israel or of attacking Iran, it will be too late for either. Just a dumb question, as phrased.
Posted by: Warren Terra | October 07, 2008 at 11:59 PM
A lot of recycled material from the previous debate -- Petraeus worship, "bomb, bomb Iran", striking in Pakistan, tax-raising accusations, etc. And then various things that I was wondering whether McCain was just making up on the spot -- some sort of stats he made up about Obama's taxes on small businesses, the mortgage-buying plan (was that announced before?), and maybe even the doubled tax deduction for children (though I've probably just missed that).
I thought the "cool hand on the tiller" was a really bad line for hothead McCain to be using, and then he brought it back at the end as "steady hand on the tiller" -- not much of an improvement. Of course if undecided voters don't know what a tiller is they may just think he's talking about someone having their hand in the till.
Posted by: KCinDC | October 08, 2008 at 12:00 AM
Bailing out "homeowners" by renegotiating interest terms would be one thing. Rescuing "flip-this-house" investors by cramming down principal would be another.
It is going to be a huge task figuring this out on a case by case basis if we go down this road. You'll probably need to at least double the number of bankruptcy judges (and staff) for a short time, and provide them with expert assistance from loss mitigation specialists. Go read some of Tanta's articles at calculatedrisk to get a feel for how this process works.
Also, my understanding of cramdowns it that they would involve renegotiating the principle on the loan, not just twiddling the interest rate. The idea is to put the current homeowner into a loan for what the home is actually worth in terms of long term trends for that market and property rather than using principle values determined at the height of the bubble.
This means the lender (or whoever got stuck holding the MBS when the music stopped) is going to take a loss, perhaps as much as 50% in some cases, but at least you keep the property occupied and under maintenance, which is in the best interests of the community and the most economically rational thing to do as far as preserving the long term value of the home.
Not only do foreclosures cost money in administrative costs, but there is also the likelihood that an unoccupied property will lose real value due to vandalism and theft (for example in the spring of this year there was a rash of stories about homes being ripped apart for the copper piping bacl when metals prices were booming). Even just leaving a house exposed to the weather without an occupant can result in damage and loss of value.
Posted by: ThatLeftTurnInABQ | October 08, 2008 at 12:05 AM
McCain keeps talking about how he takes on everyone. He never mentions if he ever wins, though. Then again, maybe he's from La Mancha.
Posted by: galen | October 08, 2008 at 12:12 AM
and maybe even the doubled tax deduction for children (though I've probably just missed that)
That was it! Where the frell did that come from? I've never heard McCain or any of his surrogates mention that before.
Posted by: Anarch | October 08, 2008 at 12:56 AM
Yeah, it was particularly bizarre hearing McCain pop out with random new proposals in the same debate in which he was criticizing Obama for frequently changing his tax proposals (when the changes seem to be a figment of McCain's imagination).
Posted by: KCinDC | October 08, 2008 at 01:27 AM
Yeah, it was particularly bizarre hearing McCain pop out with random new proposals
What was even more weird is that he didn't bother to tell anybody that these proposals are new.
If they wanted to dominate the news cycle and make McCain look more responsive to the economic crisis, they should have been making a huge deal out of this - "New! Improved! Even better than before! McCain is listening to YOUR concerns! He's not afraid to change!"
Instead they buried the lead.
It reminded me of the scene in Dr. Strangelove where they are discussing the new Russian Doomsday machine and Dr. S. points out that the whole point of having one is lost if you don't tell anybody about it.
I wonder if these new proposals are trial balloons that they were waiting to see how they score with the audience during the debate, and then they will run with them or not depending on the reaction.
Posted by: ThatLeftTurnInABQ | October 08, 2008 at 01:48 AM
Well, McCain's two for two on introducing policy proposals at the debates that he's never talked about before: the spending freeze at the first debate, and the mortgage buyback this time. Could be three for two; I don't know if his "fixing Social Security is easy, all it takes is this Magic Commission" plan (using the term "plan" loosely) was introduced outside of the debates.
Posted by: Warren Terra | October 08, 2008 at 02:10 AM
Yeah, it was particularly bizarre hearing McCain pop out with random new proposals in the same debate in which he was criticizing Obama for frequently changing his tax proposals
as always: any attack from McCain should be assumed to be a reflection of how McCain thinks Obama would attack him. McCain is merely preempting Obama.
Posted by: cleek | October 08, 2008 at 07:05 AM
"I'll act responsibly, as I've acted throughout my career" (10:14) -- what I heard was actually worse: he said "throughout my military career" and then half-corrected himself a second later. So, take your pick: either McCain thinks his behavior as a pilot was something to be proud of, or he wants you to believe that his whole political career was a military career.
Posted by: Hob | October 08, 2008 at 10:52 AM
I don't know if his "fixing Social Security is easy, all it takes is this Magic Commission" plan (using the term "plan" loosely) was introduced outside of the debates.
If you use "plan" any more loosely, it's gonna fall to your ankles.
Posted by: Anarch | October 08, 2008 at 11:09 AM