Thirty-Ought-Six

by Eric Martin

One of my cobloggers at American Footprints, Haggai, had an interesting observation regarding Max Boot's discussion of the McCain foreign policy outlook.  From the article:

In an interview with the Atlantic magazine over the summer, U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) insisted that in his presidency he would serve as the chief negotiator in the peace process. But at the retreat, Boot said pursuing an Israeli-Palestinian deal would not be a top priority in a McCain administration, adding that as many as 30 crises across the globe require more urgent attention. [emphasis mine]

Haggai:

So Middle East peace isn't even one of the top THIRTY foreign policy issues that should get attention from the US?  Wow.

Off the top of my head, I'd put Iraq and Afghanistan ahead of Israel-Palestine.  And a fair case could be made for Iran's nuclear program, the situation in Georgia and the instability in Pakistan (here's a great piece on that subject by the way).  Darfur likely require more urgent attention, though it's not clear the McCain camp would provide it. But let's add it to the list regardless. That's six.

I'm sure I've overlooked a handful, but are there really twenty-four other international relations crises that require more urgent attention than the pursuit of peace between Israel and Palestine? 

Comments

[cleek]

North Korea
China / Taiwan
...
Browns / Steelers ?

[Ugh]

You're forgetting the Mon Mothma led Rebellion and the Kree/Skrull war. So that's 8.

[Eric Martin]

Yeah, North Korea belongs.

China/Taiwan is too long a shot I think. Israel/Palestine is much more crucial to a number of our objectives.

[KCinDC]

The Republican base does seem to be worried about invasion by Mexico, so maybe that's one of the 30.

[Turbulence]

Maybe McCain is counting disputes with the neighbors surrounding his many houses. If we assume he has ten houses and is currently fighting with the neighbors on either side, that counts as 20 conflicts. Add in occasional disputes with water/sewer/gas/electricity/telephone/internet/cable providers and we can break 24 easily.

[tomeck]

I'm not sure I'd agree about North Korea. Solving Israel-Palestine does a whole lot more for us than solving North Korea.

And I'd add that solving Israel-Palestine in a way that we'd be seen as an honest broker would help us with Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran and the whole Middle East.

[liberal japonicus]

China/Tibet
Spratleys
Assume that every place where there MAY be het up muslims (southern Thailand, Uighurs, Indonesia, Sudan, Bosnia, 4 or 5 more?)
Burma

I'm not claiming that these belong, but the neocons probably would argue that anywhere where Muslims could be on the rampage might be PLUS anywhere where they could bloviate about how human freedom is being harmed might get you up to 30. Might.

[KCinDC]

There's also the impending robot rebellion.

And the zombie apocalypse.

[hairshirthedonist]

I wasn't too crazy about my last haircut. I'm considering changing barbers. He might want to get involved with that. Or help me find my remote.

[Eric Martin]

I'm not sure I'd agree about North Korea. Solving Israel-Palestine does a whole lot more for us than solving North Korea.

I agree with the import of the peace process, but would argue that the urgency is somewhat abated by the fact that progress, even under the best circumstances, is going to be slow, slow, slow. Whereas North Korea is right now flipping the switch back on at its nuke reactors while Kim Jong Il's health is in serious decline, possibly debilitating.

I wouldn't have a problem with any administration making that a priority over Israel/Palestine.

[Jacob]

You forgot about Spain.

[Eric Martin]

lol.

[rea]

The new President really needs to devote a significant amount of time and energy to fixing the Detroit Lions.

I can see how superficially Iraq and Afghanistan are higher up the list, but wouldn't fixing the Israeli/Palestinian dispute go a long way toward fixing every other problem in the region as well?

[Slartibartfast]

Well, there's the Storm King's efforts to get Asu'a back, and the various attempts at world domination by Darken Ral. Those have to count for something.

[ral]

... world domination by Darken Ral.

No relation.

[Catsy]

You forgot about Spain.

Win.

[Eric Martin]

I can see how superficially Iraq and Afghanistan are higher up the list, but wouldn't fixing the Israeli/Palestinian dispute go a long way toward fixing every other problem in the region as well?

Yes and no. Fixing Israel/Palestine would not go a long way to fixing Iraq. Or Afghanistan. Or the issue of womens' rights, freedom of expression, representative government, economic opportunity and human rights in general throughout the region.

Lebanon would still have its warring factions (even if Hez might lose some of its appeal/means of drumming up support). The Turks and Kurds would still have their battles. Etc.

And I don't think Iraq and Afghanistan are just superficially ahead (although perhaps you are using superficially differently than I take it).

As I mentioned upthread, there should rightly be a consideration for timeliness and timelines.

Iraq and Afghanistan are hot conflicts. The crises are acute. Our soldiers are on the ground in each locale, and the situations that require addressing are largely our doing. Our continued presence there requires enormous attention. Even, and especially, withdrawal from either theater will reguire meticulous planning, and laser-like attention.

Israel/Palestine, not quite as much. The conflict is ongoing, but not necessarily acute nor of our doing (not that we're entirely blameless for our one-sidedness, but that's not the same thing).

Meaning: there is not a sudden urgency beyond the general terrible situation that's been festering for decades. Further, even our intense focus might not be able to get results for a very long time.

It's top 5, but I don't think it can pass Iraq or Afghanistan.

(again, allowing for my misinterpretation of "superficial")

[ThatLeftTurnInABQ]

What about the 24 or so states that will attempt to secede from the Union if McCain wins?

That would get the total up to 30 if you count each one as a distinct crisis.

[mercurino]

there is only one vitally important international crisis that will draw McCain's complete attention...

whichever one is next.

[Margarita]

And there's the ongoing staredown between Big Diomede and Little Diomede in the Bering Strait.

[cleek]

the ongoing conflict between the Rebel Alliance and the Empire has to be near the top of the list. of course, given McCain's ago, maybe he thinks the fight between Ming and Flash Gordon is more urgent.

[Donald Johnson]

Gondor/Mordor, and then there was that split between Feanor's family and those seaside-dwelling elves in Elvenhome. Obviously the Rohirrim used to hunt the Pukel-men for sport--damn racist bastards. The Huorns have it in for the orcs, or most any two-legs, for that matter. The list goes on.

[Ugh]

maybe he thinks the fight between Ming and Flash Gordon is more urgent.

He'll get to that as soon as he can sit the Hatfields and McCoys down and tell them to stop the bullsh1t.

[Eric Martin]

of course, McCain's age, maybe he thinks the fight between Ming and Flash Gordon is more urgent

Rome v. Carthage?

[Stephen Rose]

Unfortunately anything that McCain says is not a reasonable basis for criticizing his positions. The reasonable expectation is that he will 1. deny that he said it, 2. when pressed, refer it to his staff, 3. say he did not mean it and even apologize if he has been "misunderstood" or 4. defend a change of mind as a sigh of growth and besides his support for Israel is so firm that what he actually meant was that he was simply supporting Israel as he would never deal with Palestine.

[Roy]

Breaking News on CNN.com:

John McCain suspends campaigning to work on economy, requests postponing Friday debate; asks Obama do the same.

- - - - -

Think he's just unprepared for the debate? Or is his attention on the economy really needed?

[magistra]

Climate change ought to count as a global crisis or even several, especially since the prospect of water wars is looking ever greater: 12 flashpoints suggested here.

[S.G.E.W.]

I've got nine.

Seriously: Somalia. India/Pakistan. China/Taiwan. International terrorism. Cuba.

Arguable: "Petrodictators."

Preposterous; "Islamofascism," the "Mexican Invasion."

Silly: The Fraggle Insurrection.

[Eric Martin]

Cuba?

But I do think global warming goes up there. Terrorism too I suppose.

Which, when North Korea is added in, does bring us to nine.

But the others are not as crucial (perhaps the Fraggle insurrection ;)). Even Somalia (and Pakistan was already mentioned).

[Uncle Kvetch]

Hugo Chavez has gone on record saying not at all nice things about the United States. This clearly indicates that he is a completely insane communist and his country must be carpet-bombed forthwith in order to save its innocent people from his brutality.

Oh, and at some point we've got to stop dilly dallying and return Cuba to its rightful owners, while they're still alive.

[Uncle Kvetch]

Cuba.

Hmmm. S.G.E.W. are either on the same page or at opposite ends of the universe, I'm not sure which.

[Lars]

I'm truly sorry to say this, but Max Boot has a point.
I should point out that I'm both sorry that there is accuracy in what Boot says, but also that- for the first time in my life- I agree with this clown.
The sad fact is that the Israel-Palestine conflict is stable, from an American point of view. To get a resolution means pushing, and I mean REALLY PUSHING, Israel to close checkpoints, relax its stranglehold on Gaza and make concessions on East Jeruaslem that so far no Israeli prime minister has ever been willing to make. And pushing the Israelis to do what is in their own long-term best interests is going to tee off the pro-Israel lobby in the US. So, why bother?
And it's because of that, and because the US has been willing for over thirty years to give the Likud wing of Israeli politics everything that it wants, that Israel-Palestine is slowly degenerating into an apartheid situation.

[cw]

30 crises, 5,000,000 dollars, 700,000,000,000 dollars. With that many zeros floating around, it's hard to keep track sometimes.

[Eric Martin]

The sad fact is that the Israel-Palestine conflict is stable, from an American point of view.

Stable, but also the source of a tremendous amount of animosity that serves as a tremendous propaganda boon to our enemies, greatly tarnishes our image and ability to make progress on other goals in the region. If fighting terrorism is truly an important goal, this is an important aspect of that goal.

To get a resolution means pushing, and I mean REALLY PUSHING, Israel to close checkpoints, relax its stranglehold on Gaza and make concessions on East Jeruaslem that so far no Israeli prime minister has ever been willing to make. And pushing the Israelis to do what is in their own long-term best interests is going to tee off the pro-Israel lobby in the US. So, why bother?

Because it's also in our long term best interests. And the steps enumerated, while distressing to the Israeli right wing, are not morally abhorrent by any stretch.

[Gary Farber]

"To get a resolution means pushing, and I mean REALLY PUSHING, Israel to close checkpoints, relax its stranglehold on Gaza and make concessions on East Jeruaslem that so far no Israeli prime minister has ever been willing to make."

In fact, none of those are remotely insurmountable or extremely difficult problems. In particular, East Jerusalem is very much available for negotiations. The question of how to resolve the Hamas/Fatah/PA problems, and bring a unified Palestinian side to the table remains unclear.

[Daniel Merritt]

Also, even from a very cynical perspective that doesn't care about actually solving the problem, if the U.S. says Israeli-Palestinian peace is unimportant that's another huge world PR blow.

Even if McCain's team believes there's no hope of solving it, it's important for us to appear interested and engaged.

[cleek]

McCain will just suspend the conflicts he's not interested in.

[novakant]

How about the US suspends its 2 billion a year military assistance to Israel for starters.

[Xanthippas]

Peace in the Middle East isn't a priority at all, at least not to McCain and his neocon ilk. Peace would necessarily mean some sort of "accommodation" with the needs and wants of the Palestinians, and the neocons are interested only in subjugation and relocation. If the Palestinians continue to resist that, well it's a small price to pay so long as Israel is victorious, right?

[Anne E]

Here's a thought experiment- pretend you are interviewing to be CEO of Microsoft. Pretend the interviewing board asked you how you'd address a serious problem that you had assessed to be 35th in priority in the challenges facing Microsoft. Now suppose you answered "I wouldn't address that problem, I would only address the top 30, and that one is number 35."

Do you think that you would get the job?

Addressing large numbers of critical issues is very much part of the job description of the president of the US.

PS I am afraid that what McCain really meant was that the Palestinians are bad people, enemies, who need to be bombed into submission. He seems incapable of seeing both sides of any question.

[Jeff]

Assume that every place where there MAY be het up muslims

Thje West bank, and, even more, Gaza have a few het-up Muslims, or so I've heard.?

=======================

You forgot about Spain Poland.

[grin]

======================

The reasonable expectation is that he will:

5. Say it was a joke. "Where's your sense of humor?"

=======================

To get a resolution means pushing, and I mean REALLY PUSHING, Israel

And, of course, the poor widdle Palestinians don't have to change a thing! Just so we're clear.

Sigh. Yes, Israel does need to be pushed. But so do the Palestinians.

[liberal japonicus]

Thje West bank, and, even more, Gaza have a few het-up Muslims, or so I've heard.?

Ahh, not where there ARE, where there MAY BE. Much more tricksier...

[Hartmut]

The upcoming war between Germany-Russia and USA-Poland over the Baltic gas pipeline will require a bit of attention, especially if those ungrateful Swedes join forces with Germany and Russia because they don't like the US bullying them into a conflict.
---
Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia (there is a coup in the making, likeley US backed).
Georgia, Ukraine.
possibly Turkey (both about the Kurdish question and the religious leanings of the government).
Horn of Africa
Iran
Central Asia (those ungrateful -stans that don't appreciate the honour of being US lackeys and getting all those terrorist to interrogate in an enhanced way).
Spain (of course).
The EU and the G8 for not participating in the great bailout.
Chechoslowakia and Yugoslavia (there are rumors of separatist movements in those countries).
Canada (the US army deserters alone should be a casus belli, and the US can't accept a socialist country as it neighbour).
Btw, why has the Abessinian emperor send no Xmas cards for years?

[Angry Sam]

That's a great Tom Waits song, by the way, Eric.

[Eric Martin]

Yeah Angry Sam, the allusion wasn't so obvious, but I had Tom Waites in mind. As in, sixteen shots from a...

[Loneoak]

You guys are forgetting the 20 international crises that John McCain will create. Since the ole' Boot has the full list of evildoers who must be defeated, he knows that we will have around 20 new wars by 2010.

McCain's steely resolve and inability to blink will win all of those conflicts, of course.

[ral]

Hey, do you suppose there is some derivative I could buy on Visine? With all this not-blinking sales are sure to be up.

[The Editors]

North Korea, for sure. India/Pakistan. Kosovo. I'd argue for China/Taiwan because it has the potential to get very hot very quickly. Al Qaeda, et al. I'd count Cuba, if only because lifting the boycott is so easy and so overdue. I'd put the endless drug wars in Columbia and Mexico - funded by the War on Drugs - in for similar reasons: not as sexy, but a "backyard" situation with major democratic allies where it is actually possible to achieve substantive gain with little effort. If you count Sudan - a humanitarian crisis outside our sphere of influence - you should include Congo and Zimbabwe, because it's only a matter of time. Also, Belgium is unacceptably full of Belgians. This fills me with a nameless dread; a dread which I have named "Brussels Simmons", aka "Flemminemm".

I think I'm up to a dozen. Unless Boot proposes a sudden shift in US interests to sub-Saharan Africa, 30 sounds a little high.

[Eric Martin]

How could I have overlooked Belgium?

What, with all the beer and the chocolate...and the bitter civil war tearing at the heart left shoulder of Europe...

[cleek]

Strike Breaker!

[Eric Martin]

Got it cleek.

[KCinDC]

Out, damn'd strike!