The Gathering Storm

by publius

You all may have heard of a little storm brewing in the Gulf called Hurricane Ike. Well, it's headed my way. There's no danger or anything where I am, though I am expecting to be without power -- and more crucially, internets -- for at least a few days. Hopefully it won't be that bad, but if I disappear for a few days, that's why.

Comments

[Chuchundra]

At least you're not facing "certain death", so that's a positive thing.

[DrDave]

Hurricanes suck. Be safe and dry.

[Robert M.]

Wife and I recently moved out of hurricane country, but I've still been wincing at the last few weeks' weather coverage. Stay safe.

[Jim Smith II]

Be safe, we're all thinking of you.

[publius]

thanks all -- like i said, i'm not in any danger, other than being trapped in my house with my kids for 5 days without sesame street.

but thanks

[hilzoy]

What Jim Smith II said. Take care.

[jdkbrown]

My fiancee and I are in the path, too, though we're also away from the coast. We just moved down here a month ago--heck of a welcome to Texas.

Best wishes for you and your family, publius. Stay safe.

[Lesley]

Well, I hope you are yours enjoy some quality pre-modern American life for the next few days. Take care.

[ThatLeftTurnInABQ]

Echoing the others, I'm glad you'll be somewhere safe, and hope that applies to everyone else in harm's way down in those parts.

thanks all -- like i said, i'm not in any danger, other than being trapped in my house with my kids for 5 days without sesame street.

Here's a idea for entertaining small children (given the Sesame St. reference, I'm assuming they are small) without TV:

Most kids love to crawl around in small enclosed spaces. Eating lunch in them is even better.

Clear a space in the main room and build a cozy "fort" with chairs, pillows for walls and blankets/sheets for a roof, or using whatever else comes to hand in the way of soft building materials.

These structures tend to slump and collapse with use (especially if an adult is asked to crawl inside) and have to be reconfigured and rebuilt periodically, so you can play this game for a long time before it gets old.

Best wishes and good luck.

[hairshirthedonist]

...being trapped in my house with my kids for 5 days without sesame street.

I'm trying to weigh this in my mind against certain death. I'll have to get back to you.

[Jesurgislac]

Stay safe.

i'm not in any danger, other than being trapped in my house with my kids for 5 days without sesame street.

Oh dear.

Giant jigsaw puzzles and books to read aloud are great timepassers for the daylight hours. If your kids are old enough, the group story - adult starts, story passes to the next person at an exciting point - can go on for hours. If your kids are old enough to know the alphabet, "the Minister's Cat" is a timepasser that can go on forever. "The Minister's cat is an ambitious - boring - capable - darling - eager - flowery - cat."

The main thing in my experience to avoid is any game with winners and losers, because if the kids are shut in the house this can rapidly turn into war.

Good luck. Best wishes. Stay dry.

[Free Lunch]

Best of luck with the storm and the kids.

[J. Michael Neal]

This sort of thing always makes me glad I live in Minneapolis. No hurricanes. Probably the most tectonically stable part of the country. We don't have mudslides (no hills) or wildfires. If the Mississippi floods to the point that it becomes an issue for me, someone needs to build an ark. Good drainage even for the thunderstorms we do get.

A tornado would be about the only thing that could get me, and those are very localized. I'll take my chances.

[243]

A tornado would be about the only thing that could get me, and those are very localized.

I'd think about staying off the bridges too.

[Gary Farber]

"This sort of thing always makes me glad I live in Minneapolis."

I love the Sin Twitties, but, then, I'm okay with lots of snow.

Not wild about the mosquitos, though.

But I'd definitely prefer Mipple-Stipple to the Southern exurbs, or anywhere in the South.

I'm not clear exactly where in Texas Publius and family are, but I wish them all best as regards the formin' stormin'.

[Marker]

The wind is picking up in NW Houston, but no rain yet. I have been very impressed with local news coverage and the performance of local officials, especially Houston Mayor Bill White. He should be on the short list for FEMA director in the next administration.

[jkdbrown]

Still not much happening where I am, about two miles WSW of downtown. A little blustery--from what they're saying, tropical storm force winds. All it's done so far in my neighborhood is bring down a bunch of twigs and leaves. Power's still on obviously. Hurricane winds are supposed to start in a couple of hours.

I'll second what Marker said: Bill White--and all of the city and county officials--have been excellent.

Stay safe, Marker, publius, and all other Southeast Texans out there.

[publius]

yep - so far so good here. i like white a lot actually (he won me by being green).

thanks for all the comments -- stay dry houstonians.

[Slartibartfast]

like i said, i'm not in any danger, other than being trapped in my house with my kids for 5 days without sesame street

The worst part is being in a hot place with no air conditioning. Which is why everyone goes outside pretty much as soon as heavy objects stop being ambulatory: the breeze.

The kids will think it's an adventure. If you've had enough forethought to have supplied them with their own hand-cranked flashlights, they'll have no thoughts about sesame street. May all of your shingles stay attached to your roof, and your roof likewise to the rest of your house. If you have a nice, big walk-in closet, that's a good place to weather the worst of the storm.

For the more boring parts of our hurricanes a few years back, we padded the kids down on the floor in our bedroom, just so we could keep an eye on them, and because that was on the more leeward side of the house.

Best of luck to you and your family, and come back and tell us about it when you can.

[hilzoy]

"I'd think about staying off the bridges too."

Ah, how it takes me back...

On one of those rare occasions when a hurricane hit Boston (was it Gloria?), my then-boyfriend and I had the idea of standing on a bridge over the Charles River, on the windward side, where the wind just whipped along the river, stretching a poncho between us, and jumping to see how far we would be blown. (We had gotten a bit stir-crazy after a while.)

Not recommended.

[Roger Moore]

A tornado would be about the only thing that could get me, and those are very localized. I'll take my chances.

I thought you people encountered a phenomenon known as a "blizzard" at some times of year. Rumors here in Southern California suggest that it involves an unbelievable combination of temperatures too cold to go outside without protective clothing and some kind of frozen precipitation that I think was called "snow". It sounds like it could be rather unpleasant and dangerous.

[Slartibartfast]

Jeff Masters:

Hurricane Ike is hours away from landfall on the upper Texas coast, and is already generating huge storm surges in Texas and Lousiana. Although still of Category 2 strength, Ike remains larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike's Integrated Kinetic Energy has fallen from 149 Terajoules this morning to 124 at 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon. However, this is still larger than the total energy Katrina had at landfall, and Ike's storm surge potential rates a 5.1 on a scale of 1 to 6.

[Slartibartfast]

Without checking the results, units converion has 124 TJ approximately equal to 30kT TNT. Spread out over a vasty area, though.

[jkdbrown]

Along with Jeff Masters, Eric Berger is giving a lot of great detailed information on the storm and its potential effects at his blog: http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

[jkdbrown]

I was looking out my back window a few minutes ago and noticed that one of the tree-tops on the block behind me was sparkling. From what I can tell, it pokes up between two power lines, and it sparks every time the wind blows it into contact with them. We're still not at Hurricane strength. I think those lines are coming down in the next few hours.

[kenB]

That Left Turn: forts aren't just for small children, you know.

Wishes of safety to all in the area.

[blackink]

Be safe, publius. And keep my hometown safe, if you can. But if not, get the hell out of the way.

[Feddie]

Hilzoy-

If you wouldn't mind posting an update to let everyone know that Publius and his family are o.k., I would greatly appreciate it.