Quick Thoughts

by publius

I’m not going to say a lot tonight — honestly, I’m not sure what I think yet. But here are some very quick thoughts, with more to come tomorrow.

First, I think Josh Marshall gets it exactly right — they’ve opted for a pure base rallying strategy. The main speeches were, for whatever other merits they had, extremely nasty and extremely “substance free.” I don’t really see how the GOP in 2008 (vs. 2004) can win purely by energizing their dwindling base. They’re going to have to win people disaffected with the GOP and people who are struggling economically — I honestly didn’t see anything tonight that would appeal to these people. It was all character, family, and attacking Obama — no real issues.

Second, I think the press reaction was over-the-top gushing. The McCain camp successfully got in the media’s head — they all but declared it the best speech in the history of the world. And I think they were doing it as penance. Refs successfully worked over tonight.

As for Palin’s speech itself, I need to noodle it a bit more. I wasn’t all that impressed, but many others whose opinions I respect thought it was very good. So I want to think more about that. One lingering issue will be whether the press pushes back on many of the quite blatant falsehoods (e.g., Bridge) — in fact, I think Hilzoy may be bringing the thunder on that soon.

UPDATE: Ezra's take seems spot on, especially this:

In that sense, the speech was slave to the same priorities that governed her selection as vice president: It was aimed at wining the news cycle, not the campaign. . . . The presidency was presented tonight as if it were the Medal of Honor, or a purple heart. As if it is only a quirk of our political process that stops us from simply finding the longest serving prisoner of war and gifting him the keys to the office. On a rhetorical level, it was effective, if only because McCain's story is so powerful. But it is not, fundamentally, a sustainable approach to this campaign. If McCain is more appealing for what he did than what he will do, he will lose the election.

Comments

[Davis X. Machina]

They’re going to have to win people disaffected with the GOP and people who are struggling economically — I honestly didn’t see anything tonight that would appeal to these people.

Not true. They got someone to hate.

The salient fact of American politics is that there are, at any given time, enough people to elect a president who would also volunteer to live with their family in a cardboard box under a bridge, and eat sparrows toasted on an old curtain rod, if you only promise them that the black-gay-foreign-liberal-Mexican in the next box over doesn't even get the sparrow.

[publius]

well, that's what i'm thinking of writing tomorrow -- i think the GOP has overlearned from 2004. it was a unique time, still lingering in a post-9/11 haze.

i'm just not sure this crap will work this time. not among the people that matter

[Mr Furious]

No doubt the strategy is now pure Rove-Atwater. McCain will handle the military wars and Palin will command the culture war.

It's going to be all narrative, candidates and wedges.

This speech was nothing but bullshit and red meat for teh base, but the immediate reactions from the media was gushing. They were looking for a new angle and a reason to fall back into lie and now they have it.

McCain certainly made a good casting choice, and tonite she aced her audition.

[Mr Furious]

i'm just not sure this crap will work this time. not among the people that matter

Hate to sound "elitist", publius, but I think you're giving the electorate too much credit.

There is no doubt in my mind that it COULD work this time. I;m not saying it will, but Palin brings them closer.

[ThatLeftTurnInABQ]

The salient fact of American politics is that there are, at any given time, enough people to elect a president who would also volunteer to live with their family in a cardboard box under a bridge, and eat sparrows toasted on an old curtain rod, if you only promise them that the black-gay-foreign-liberal-Mexican in the next box over doesn't even get the sparrow.

But politically that works best if you don't get the black-gay-foreign-liberal-Mexican so pissed off that he comes over with two of his funny looking friends and shoves that old curtain rod down yur throat.

In other words, firing up the base is best done using dog whistles, so you selectively fire up your base more than you fire up the other side's.

But it seems like the GOP has forgotten how to use dog whistles and has resorted to bullhorns instead. I watched those speeches too (did they think that only Republicans and GOP-leaning indy's were going to tune in) and I'm feeling like one massively pissed off Dem right now.

[KCinDC]

Byron York(!) (via Yglesias):

If the Obamas had a 17 year-old daughter who was unmarried and pregnant by a tough-talking black kid, my guess is if that they all appeared onstage at a Democratic convention and the delegates were cheering wildly, a number of conservatives might be discussing the issue of dysfunctional black families.

[hilzoy]

Gack: was delayed by the fact that two guys were apparently having sex in a car outside my house, one of my neighbors confronted them, they drove off but hit my car in the process, causing only minor damage, but also causing a big argument between my neighbor and the police about why, since he had the license number, had witnessed the crime, and was prepared to pick them out of a lineup, there wasn't going to be much in the way of a response...

[socratic_me]

I am with LeftTurn,

Talking to the parental units tonight, I noted that it seems like they forgot the part where they give a *wink* *wink* *nudge* *nudge* to the base and then pretend to be centrists.

My thought is that the base is so freaked out about how things are falling apart and how much they don't trust McCain that he (and by extension, his campaign) just can't get away with appearing too sane. Whatever the reason, all my anecdotes (which I will present as data ;-) suggest that they are rapidly losing the middle.

[Warren Terra]

Geez, hilzoy, first you have your computer stolen, then your car gets dinged ... I'm thinking this is not a good time for you to be buying any lottery tickets ...

[kovarsky]

i am most impressed by their ability to extol palin's CHOICE to have a child with down syndrome, without any apparent irony.

[ThatLeftTurnInABQ]

hilzoy,

I'm sorry to hear about your car.

Please look both ways while crossing the street, and don't go outside during thunderstorms for a while, eh?

[KCinDC]

I'm a little surprised they omitted the accusations of infanticide tonight. I guess they didn't want to emphasize abortion too much while trying to appeal to women.

[Hartmut]

Or you should test the hypothesis that you are the target of a hidden GOP intimidation campaign ;-)

[Lee]

I appreciate the sentiments you point out from Ezra--but I sadly disagree. He notes that opportunities to go deeper and express understanding was missed in lieu of some cheap shots at Obama. Almost as though Palin and McCain would correct that if they thought it through. But after seeing McCain at Saddleback and hearing the astounding reaction to his simplistic jingoisms as clarity, I no longer believe there is any intent (let alone capacity) to go deep.

These are not thoughtful, serious people.

[Debbie(aussie)]

Watching all this from the other side of the planet is really bewildering. What's with the 'don't bring her family into this' shtick and then passing Trig around like a trophy? I am so afraid of what is happening to our world. I wish the US did not see it's self as 'our last best hope', still.

[KCinDC]

The more I hear the clips of Palin, the more I think that the only thing that's going to be remembered about the speech is the relentless sarcasm and negativity. We'll have to see what things look like by tomorrow evening.

I do think that the McCain campaign has run out of victim cards.

[Neo]

No executive experience

Obama seems to have left out this job from his resume ..

"Recently [1995] he [Obama] was appointed president of the board of the Annenberg Challenge Grant, which will distribute some $50 million in grants to public-school reform efforts."

... I wonder why ... this would be an excellent comeback for Obama to all those complaints that he never had executive experience or handled a payroll.

[cleek]

The more I hear the clips of Palin, the more I think that the only thing that's going to be remembered about the speech is the relentless sarcasm and negativity.

the NYT was pretty impressed.

[cleek]

here's the full NYT piece.

[KCinDC]

Just heard on NPR, referring to the Palin pick, something like "After flirting with more traditional Republican positions during the primaries, McCain is returning to his roots as a reformer." Does that mean he's flip-flopping yet again and abandoning all the new positions he's adopted (flirted with)?

[Ugh]

President McCain
Vice President Palin

I love the smell of endless war and economic depression in the morning, it smells like...victory.

[liberal japonicus]

I'm pleased to see Yglesias in the WaPo and more importantly, I think he has this absolutely right

Rather than being the victim of his own post-partisanship, as Continetti argues, today McCain is in a downward spiral of ever-intensifying right-wingery even at a time when the American right has rarely been less popular. Many expected him to try to pull the plane up once the primaries were over, but the decision to re-re-invent himself is not so easily undone. For one thing, three ideological makeovers in ten years might be too much even for McCain's most credulous fans in the press. But beyond that, the more he damages his maverick brand the more McCain comes to depend on the conservative establishment -- on the Bush bundlers, on the dirty energy interests, on the Christian right activists he once derided as agents of intolerance -- an establishment whose current bad reputation necessitates a campaign strategy grounded in Eskew-style smear-merchant tactics.

[cleek]

"McCain is returning to his roots as a reformer."

of course he is. McCain is an honorable man. as are they all. all honorable men.

MSNBC/NYT has an article:

John McCain: driven to serve, and to succeed A career defined by a singular ambivalence about his own ambition, success

As he accepts the Republican presidential nomination on Thursday night in St. Paul, John Sidney McCain III, of Arizona, stands at the pinnacle of a career defined by a singular ambivalence about his own ambition, and success. Time and again, he lunges for the prize, then lashes himself for letting his pursuit get the better of him — for doing favors for his patron Charles H. Keating Jr., for stooping to ugly attacks on George W. Bush during the 2000 primary, for outbursts of temper at lawmakers who get in his way.

It reflects what his brother, Joe McCain, calls a “public dialectic” between the senator’s drive to succeed and his desire to serve a higher cause. For decades his outward display of that inner conflict has proved advantageous, helping advance his career by forging his image as the un-politician, the candidate with an almost reckless disregard for his own fortunes.

no, it's just not possible that McCain could simply be an ambitious politician. he simply must be a complex and conflicted warrior, torn between his desire to serve and his own ambition.

looks like Palin really did energize McCain's real base - the press.

[cleek]

link to the article i mentioned above.

[Jesurgislac]

By Mark Leibovich and David D. Kirkpatrick write: "for stooping to ugly attacks on George W. Bush during the 2000 primary"

My goodness yes. How could John McCain stoop so low as to resent the Bush campaign's claim that his adopted daughter Bridget was his own illegitimate daughter?

Query: what do Leibovich and Kirkpatrick gain by whitewashing Bush/Rove at this late date?

[bedtimeforbonzo]

publius: "I think the press reaction was over-the-top gushing."

I guess it's the Equal Time Rule: The Chris Matthews of the MSM have been taking heat ever since Obama's speeches gave them tingles up their legs -- something better left unsaid on TV.

Palin was better than my initial reaction, given that she's a rookie, but she is still nowhere near Obama's league. I hope people at least recognize that.

[liberal japonicus]

Jes, that could mean McCain flying off the handle and it is just inartfully phrased. It's bad writing, but that could be what they are trying to get across.

[bedtimeforbonzo]

Our Aussie friend brings up a good point: "What's with the 'don't bring her family into this' shtick and then passing Trig around like a trophy?"

Truth is, I'd be tempted to use that family for political gain -- it has "ideal American family" written all over it.

When Palin's little girl was stroking the newborn's hair -- priceless.

I'm a sucker for such stuff.

[KCinDC]

Bedtime, considering the creepy things Matthews said about his crushes on Romney and Thompson (and I'm pretty sure McCain as well), that statement about Obama doesn't even make it equal time, much less tilted in favor of Democrats.

[bedtimeforbonzo]

Mr Furious: "No doubt the strategy is now pure Rove-Atwater. McCain will handle the military wars and Palin will command the culture war."

That seems to nail what we will see from their campaign the rest of the way.

KCinDC has noted in other threads how CNN's commentators viewed Palin's speech as a renewal of the cultural wars, which, if they ended, it sure was short-lived. Thanks, Gov. Palin.

[bedtimeforbonzo]

Good point, KC. I'm afraid it's much easier to impress Matthews, a former speechwriter, than I used to think.

I was mostly surprised that Olbermann -- can't remember the last time he praised a Republican -- gave Palin rave reviews.

[bedtimeforbonzo]

BTW, Dems need to remember we're fighting an uphill battle.

My boss who just last week announced he was crossing over and voting for Obama said he's not so sure after hearing Sarah Palin, who he's listening to now. E-gads.

"I think she's better than McCain," Bossman said.

[Ugh]

Comment seen elsewhere on the intarwebz w.r.t. Rudy's speech last night: I liked it better in the original German.

[KCinDC]

With the prominence of Palin in the campaign, Hillary Clinton could be even more useful as an Obama surrogate. Let's hope she follows through on her pledge of support for the Democratic nominee.

[farmgirl]

Russell -- If anecdotal reactions from Hillary supporters are any indication, I have no doubt that Hillary herself is not going to let Alaska Barbie steal her thunder.

[farmgirl]

ACK! sorry, that was to KCinDC, not Russell.

[KCinDC]

Farmgirl, I'm not sure what you mean. Are you saying people who would know are telling you that Hillary will be getting out there and speaking out strongly against Palin (and McCain)?

[Hartmut]

I wish the US did not see it's self as 'our last best hope', still.

Especially not because a certain Austrian said exactly the same about himself not long before he "took the easy way out" in '45.It is tainted.*
[Exuse my Godwin]

*It was also his http://www.h-ref.de/organisationen/nsdap/wahl.jpg>election slogan before coming to power.

[farmgirl]

KC -- sorry for the ambiguity. No, I mean judging by the strong reactions of many Hillary supporters who are offended/insulted by the choice of Palin for the VP slot, I would expect Hillary herself to take strong exception as well. Just a guess.

[Gary Farber]

The piece Neo links to from the Chicago Reader here in 1995 is actually a very nice piece I hadn't read before.

The answer to your question, Neo, is that that kind of job is part-time. Thanks for recommending such an interesting piece about what an admirable guy Obama is!

When Palin's little girl was stroking the newborn's hair -- priceless.

I'm a sucker for such stuff.

Most people are. What it has to do with politics, or how someone will do in office, I have little idea.

[bedtimeforbonzo]

Gary: "Most people are. What it has to do with politics, or how someone will do in office, I have little idea."

I imagine, as amazing as it may seem, some voters might be sold on how great Sarah Palin's family looked and all of that "hockey mom" stuff.

[KCinDC]

Bedtime, maybe that relates to politics (at least the campaigning part), but I don't think it responds to Gary's question about what it indicates about how someone will do in office. Sadly, that doesn't seem to be a consideration at all.

[bedtimeforbonzo]

I don't think anything we saw last night told us much about how Palin "will do in office" -- other than she'd be very partisan.