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August 30, 2008


Yeah, I felt a little sorry for you when I saw that. But if it makes you feel better, I think the Obama team was a little surprised too. No one thought McCain was that crazy.

Stupidity makes the smartest of us into fools.

I think we've got a glimpse at McCain's new campaign strategy here: He knows he can't win a contest about serious issues, so he's taking those issues off the table by acting as crazy as possible. You can't debate the jester!

I read Sullivan's blog fairly regularly but haven't seen this "Von Hoffmann" thing before. What's the significance? Is Andrew Sullivan actually mocking you for making an incorrect prediction? Andrew Sullivan? Former Bush-worshipper extraordinaire? Surely he couldn't be that oblivious.

I can't tell whether it's better for you to predict many more or nary another Van Hoffman Award for yourself.

Excuse my ignorance but who is that von Hoffman? (googling and wikiying did not bring up an explanation for the name, just the meaning)

Cancel that request, I found the answer.

Leiberman might have, though.

Nobody would predict that McCain would be that much of a Dick*. We were all wrong.

However, I predict Palin will withdraw from the VP position before two weeks pass. Distract the press from Obama's nomination, slink off somewhere else two weeks later, and Lieberman takes over as Mr Serious, since experience matters so much after all.

* by Dick, I mean Nixon. Really, I do!

Actually, I think naming awards after people you have to google to figure out who they are, and why someone is using their name, isn't a terribly bright idea. I generally think using cutsy lingo that only longtime students of your blog will understand is a wonderful way to address only a small number of people, and shut out your potentially wider audience.

But that's just me.

It sounds kind of cool, though: "to be Von Hoffmanned."

Or, in this case, I guess publius was Palined.

"In my defense though, I wasn't expecting such a crazy selection."

Like you were the only one?

I'm not even sure Lieberman would have caused such a frenzy.

Then again, what do I know? I'm the guy who wondered out loud yesterday why Charlie Crist didn't merit strong consideration -- although he seems every bit as qualified as Palin.

Well, I suspect that your prediction about the VP coverage was wrong only because McCain picked a complete unknown. Quite a bit of news space had to be devoted to explaining to us exactly who the heck she was.

With a more conventional pick, you would likely have been right.

If someone named "Leiberman" were nominated for the Vice-Presidency, I confidently predict that everyone would be quite surprised.

"...only because McCain picked a complete unknown."

Not a complete unknown; she was mentioned in dozens of pieces as an outside possibility. Nobody really expected it, but it's not as if McCain named someone who hasn't been talked about at all.

Chet Edwards is even more generally unknown, I tend to think, or at least was until two weeks ago, outside Texas and fanatic Congressional watchers/political junkies.

"Chet Edwards is even more generally unknown, I tend to think, or at least was until two weeks ago, outside Texas and fanatic Congressional watchers/political junkies."

I knew his chances were nil because everyone would think it was John Edwards.

@Hartmut: Would you be willing to share your findings with the ObWi commentariat?

I'm old enough for the name to be recognizable, assuming the reference is to Nicholas von Hoffman. But the primary association v.H. has for me has nothing to do with making incorrect public predictions.

Nell, just read his Wikipedia entry.

publius, don't let it affect you. keep pushing the envelope. you're a great thinker and gifted writer. he's an arsehole.

Here's a link to Andrew's award glossary:

I don't think Sullivan meant this as a criticism of the prediction. I think it was a fun way to emphasize how stunningly wrong the Palen pick was.

This is an award you should be proud of, publius.

From von Hoffman's wiki entry:

Von Hoffman was fired by Don Hewitt for calling then President Richard Nixon a dead mouse on America's kitchen floor.

publius, this is a badge you should wear with pride.

Thanks -

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