If at First You Don't Succeed, Succeed and Succeed Again

by Eric Martin

You might expect that after brash declarations like "Mission Accomplished" (2003), "last throes" Part I (2005), "last throes" Part II (2006), and Rich Lowry's infamous "We're Winning" cover photo and story (2005), Iraq war supporters would have developed a little healthy circumspection.  You could have assumed that after declaring every new development over the past 5+ years the turning point and pivot to victory (the killing of Uday and Qusay, capture of Saddam, handover from CPA to interim government, elections, constitution, etc), that a more mature and cautious "wait and see" approach would be the norm.  You would, of course, be wrong (you always are). 

John McCain on the campaign trail lets the American people in on the best kept secret: we've actually already won the Iraq war.  Who knew?

I repeat my statement that we have succeeded in Iraq, not we are succeeding we have succeeded in Iraq. The strategy has worked and we now have the Iraqi government and military in charge in the major cities in Iraq. Al Qaeda is on their heels and on the run... [emph. added]

Of course, it's the kind of success that requires Americans to continue to fight and die in the war.  That's already won.  And over. 

...but the success that we have achieved is still fragile and could be reversed, and it’s still – if we do what Sen. Obama wants to do, then all of that could be reversed and we could face again the chaos, increased Iranian influence and American loss and defeat.

Ah, sweet victory.  Still no definition of success or victory - but who cares, whatever it is, it's ours!  And again, we see the absurd suggestion that Iranian influence has been lessened by our efforts to facilitate the consolidation of power by Iran's main proxies, ISCI and Dawa.  Right.  But I'll put that aside because now would be a good time to check in with the Kagans who, just last month, were telling us that we were "very close to succeeding."  One can only imagine the progress of their pollyanna:

All of the most important objectives of the surge have been accomplished in Iraq. The sectarian civil war is ended; al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has been dealt a devastating blow; and the Sadrist militia and other Iranian-backed militant groups have been disrupted.

The sectarian war has ended?  Or is it just in its last throes (more on this below)?  What of the Iranian-backed political parties (ISCI, Dawa) that are getting stronger?  More important, what about that political reconciliation stuff that Bush and Petraeus said was the most important objective of The Surge, and without which, the various conflicts would eventually re-ignite?

Meanwhile, the Iraqi government has accomplished almost all of the legislative benchmarks set by the U.S. Congress and the Bush administration. More important, it is gaining wider legitimacy among the population. The attention of Iraqis across the country is focused on the upcoming provincial elections, which will be a pivotal moment in Iraq's development.

Wow.  That sets a new benchmark for mendacity.  Regarding provincial elections, the results are being cooked and, as such, will represent a "pivotal moment" the same way the last two rounds have - not so much.  As to the benchmarks being "accomplished," the Kagans (with Jack Keane, "KKK" for short - I kid) are, quite frankly, lying. 

The Bush administration has recently released an assessment that stated that the Iraqi government was making "satisfactory" progress on 15 of 18 benchmarks.  KK & K translate "satisfactory progress" to already "accomplished."  In reality, though, some of that progress cited by the Bush administration includes the passage of laws that have not yet been implemented (call it reconciliation on the books).  Sammer Lalwani commenting on KK & K:

...[G]aping holes devalue claims of political progress, especially with respect to oil laws, professional police forces, and reintegration of Sunnis into security forces; al Qaeda just scored a big hit in Diyala; and US softening towards Iran is in part a recognition of what Steve Clemons describes as "Iran's ability to control the temperature of Iraq."

Even the much-discussed benchmarks do not represent a comprehensive list of obstacles to achieving stability in Iraq.  One of the biggest issues looming on Iraq's horizon, and most important in terms of bearing out the KK & K claim that the sectarian war has in fact "ended," isn't even included as one of the 18 benchmarks.  The problem we'd sooner ignore: How to resolve the crisis of Iraq's 5 million internally and externally displaced citizens?  Yeah, that little thing.  Lalwani again:

...[T]he authors remain muted on a major threat to the political stability, security, and purported sectarian calm of Iraq and the surrounding region -- namely the state of Iraq's refugees -- and their silence is deafening.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) has again drawn attention to this elephant in the room that the United States has only scraped at the edges by providing some visas to Iraqis who assist the US as contractors or translators.

Even if one bought the Kagans' and Keane's argument that sectarian violence is down, it is a misleading and temporary figure because over five million -- one in five Iraqi's -- have fled their homes (not to mention the over half a million Iraqi deaths). 2.5 million Iraqis are internally displaced and without ample support, the process of resettlement or return to their homes will be a deeply destabilizing and violent process that is bound to reignite sectarian tensions.

Meanwhile, the other 2.5 million are being hosted in states that are becoming increasingly concerned and overwhelmed with the burdens of millions of refugees that drive up inflation, housing prices, the black economy, crime, and the propensity and cover for extremist elements.

Refugee camps, particularly in the Middle East, have long been simmering hotbeds of tension and violence with countless examples from history -- ranging from Jordan in 1970 to Lebanon today -- that provide a cautionary tale given our current willful negligence.

Um, yeah.  What happens when those 5 million people come back to their houses and find them occupied by the cohorts of the sectarian cleansers that caused the eviction in the first place?  Or what if they don't make it home at all?  Maybe we can just apply a little Surge Tonic - it cures all that ails yah!

Comments

[ChrisWWW]

McCain should be hammered on this comment everyday by Obama.

Anytime one of our soldiers dies over there, this comment should be played back.

[Ugh]

Of course, it's the kind of success that requires Americans to continue to fight and die in the war. That's already won. And over.

3...2...1...and it's over!!!! The Boston Celtics have won the 2008 NBA Championship!! The Lakers are walking off the floor in disgu--- wait a minute, the Celtics just broke out of their huddle and are lining up like there will be another tipoff, what's going on? Coach Rivers! Coach Rivers! Can you explain what's going on here?

"The Lakers are on their heels and on the run, but the success that we have achieved is still fragile and could be reversed, and it’s still – if we do what the City of Boston wants to do and celebrate, then all of that could be reversed and we could face again the chaos, increased Laker influence and Celtic loss and defeat."

[Model 62]

Ugh wins.

[Enlightened Layperson]

The people who have been ethnically cleansed will not be returning home. It's that simple.

[Erasmussimo]

(with Jack Keane, "KKK" for short - I kid)

OK, I know I'm nitpicking, but is it OK for conservatives to kid about "Barack Hussein Obama"?

[Eric Martin]

OK, I know I'm nitpicking, but is it OK for conservatives to kid about "Barack Hussein Obama"?

I've never said or suggested otherwise.

[Jeff]

is it OK for conservatives to kid about "Barack Hussein Obama"?

The latest one (from the http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/07/hewitt-award--8.html>Texas Republican Convention -- h/t Andrew Sullivan; also available at Cafe Press) is that "the only difference between OBama and OSama is a litle B.S."

No, the difference is a LOT of B.S. [Posting Rules violation deleted].

[Brick Oven Bill]

The lesson we should have learned from Iraq is that, if we want parts of the Islamic world to act civilized, a dictator has to be installed. This is a lesson that Napolean learned in Egypt, then France learned in Morocco, then Britain learned in Iraq.

We should have learned this lesson in:
(1) Iraq;
(2) Afghanistan;
(3) Lebanon; and
(4) Gaza.

McCain deserves to be mocked because of his support of our Iraq policy. Obama deserves to be mocked because of his plan to become more engaged in Afghanistan. Iraq and Afghanistan are the same conflict.

Ron Paul is right when he states that this will come to an end when the money runs out. Things will then get very ugly.

[Bruce Baugh]

The real lesson is that places get more civilized when they aren't invaded and subject to mass death and suffering and infrastructure destruction. Just because the Very Important People think "let's not attack them" is never a serious option doesn't mean the rest of us have to agree.

[Equal Opportunity Cynic]

Ugh must have been looking for Matt Yglesias' blog and landed here by mistake....

[Richard Landon]

First and foremost, when we invaded Iraq: violation of UN Charter = crime.
When we bombed the first hospital: war crime.
When we withhold food and water from civilians: war crime.
When we torture to get information: war crime.

How long does the carnage and the illegality have to continue before Americans wake up to the fact that this "war" is a crime the Bush Admin. commits with their aproval. WITH THE APPROVAL OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE!

Dress it up how you like. But don't call a crime anythiNg but a crime.

We can blather on forever about what to do now that we have committed this crime, but the first thing we need to do, as a country, is STOP THIS CRIMINAL WAR.

[john miller]

"...the Sadrist militia and other Iranian-backed militant groups have been disrupted."

Since the two other main groups he mentioned are really Iranian backed and the Sadrist militia really isn't, and since the Sadrist militia voluntarily stepped down (for a while) and wasn't disrupted, since Sadr is probably the most popular of the Shiite leaders in the country, this statement makes no sense and therefore renders every other statement in the article meaningless.

"Iraq and Afghanistan are the same conflict." BOB, a new low in ignorance.

[cleek]

How long does the carnage and the illegality have to continue before Americans wake up to the fact that this "war" is a crime the Bush Admin. commits with their aproval. WITH THE APPROVAL OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE!

the last part answers the first.

[Hartmut]

[Godwin]The mindset of the "We have won!" squallers reminds me of those that hung people from Berlin lampposts in late April of 1945 for doubting that final victory was right around the next corner.[/Godwin]
Given some highly visible right-wingers' regular talk, there is not just similarity but identity as far as the "lanternizing" is concerned.

[Independent]

Soldiers appreciate hearing from their leaders when they succeed in a mission. In this case the mission was about reducing the level of violence among other things. McCain's comment was overly optimistic, but it might affirm to the 19 year-old in Iraq or Afghanistan that his/her life is being spent for something of value. A statement to this effect coming from Obama would mean a lot to the troops. He can't do that of course given his campaign promises. My point here is not to attempt to justify the war. Just to provide a soldierly interpretation of the McCain comment.

[Christian G.]

Perhaps McCain was anticapating the latest remarks by Maliki - apparently he endorsed Obama's timetable for withdrawal. This could be big.

[Christian G.]

Perhaps McCain was anticapating the latest remarks by Maliki - apparently he endorsed Obama's timetable for withdrawal. This could be big.

[Christian G.]

Perhaps McCain was anticapating the latest remarks by Maliki - apparently he endorsed Obama's timetable for withdrawal. This could be big.

[Nell]

Link to the bigness: Reuters story about Maliki's remarks, part of an interview with Der Spiegel released today.

[bedtimeforbonzo]

Bush will probably be declaring "victory" soon . . .

One thing is certain: He will not be delaring that he is co-opting a Democratic platform, what w/ news of a withdrawal on a "General Time Horizon."

General Time Horizon . . .

What kind of bullshit is that?

I will be telling Citizens Bank I will be paying my car payment on a General Time Horizon. That goes for you, too, Wells Fargo, about the mortgage.

Why can't they just set a date for withdrawal, and that's that?

Finally negotiating with Korea and, now, Iran. Setting a timetable for withdrawal in Iraq. Jerking off Wall Street, especially the oil companies. John Kerry could have been no more than an average president and these last three-plus years wouldn't have been a such a waste.

My 9-year-old son has this book, "Worst Presidents Ever," and he told me excitedly, "Dad, Bush made the cover!"

I've never been an enthusiastic Obama supporter but this country needs a president who will give us a better present and 9-year-olds like Danny a better future. Brick Oven Bill, since he appears to be your candidate, I ask you: How can McCain possibly be that guy?