Gone Til November, January, February, March, April, May

by Eric Martin

Marc Lynch provides an update regarding the status of the provincial elections that were slated for October 1, but which have long seemed destined for a delay.  According to various news outlets cited by the Aardvark, the elections will likely be pused back to December - or perhaps some time in 2009 - due to the fact that the Iraqi government has not even been able to pass the law governing those elections yet.  No surprise here: the debate over the election law is, in many ways, a microcosm of the larger debate concerning Iraq's future, and each of the various factions' roles in it, and so the process is being contested pretty strenuously by various actors.

As I mentioned in that prior post, Lynch views the delays as a positive, and remains somewhat optimistic about the prospect that the delay may give the time and space necessary for the various parties to hone the election law in order to reach an acceptable compromise:

As I wrote earlier this week about the debates over the election law, better that these elections be done right than that they be done on an arbitrary schedule.  There's little substantive difference between October 1 and the end of December, other than the former might generate a 'purple finger' moment to influence the American election campaign (which really shouldn't be a consideration either way - though the risk of violence around the provincial elections should also be taken into account by those who do).   At the same time, a lot of actors - especially, but not only, the various 'Awakenings' groupings - have been impatiently waiting for these elections to get the share of power to which they feel entitled... so hopefully they won't be postponed too long.   Hopefully they will just set a new, realistic but hard date, pass an electoral law acceptable to all trends, and then make provisions for serious international monitoring.  I know, I know, here I go with my optimism again... sorry 'bout that.

Obviously, I'm not as sanguine about getting a law "acceptable to all trends" or the eventual inclusion of "provisions for serious international monitoring."  But I want to clarify my position and ostensible criticism of Lynch.  First of all, Lynch is entirely correct that it would be better to delay these elections than push them forward under the current conditions - whether to match up with the US domestic elections calendar, or otherwise (say, to capitalize on the political shaping operations vis-a-vis the Sadrists). 

Ultimately, there will need to be a certain interval between the passage of the law and the elections themselves in order to allow for the logistical preparations, and this interval should not be abridged for arbitrary or capricious reasons.  Further, at least by pushing back the deadline the possibility remains that eventually a decent law, reasonably acceptable to enough of the factions, will be adopted.  While I don't rate that possibility as high, it's the only thing to root for at this point with respect to this process, and I don't fault Lynch for that.

In summation, a delay is better than the alternative, but the end result will likely disappoint regardless.      

Comments

[LT Nixon]

I always thought the issue of who controls Kirkuk (Article 140 legislation) should be resolved before Provincial Elections, just because there is a dangerous potential for fraud and violence in the Tamim province. But, I agree with you that there shouldn't be any optimism over the delay.

[Gary Hussein Farber]

I am extremely concerned about the situation on the Iraq-Pakistan border.

[Slartibartfast]

I get your concern, Gary :p

[Gary Hussein Farber]

I'm so concerned that I have to tell you three times, so you know that it is true.

[Eric Martin]

I think I'll prune the Farber bush some...there, that looks much better doesn't it!

[Slartibartfast]

But now everything else is quite confusing, Eric.

[Gary Farber]

"But now everything else is quite confusing, Eric."

Same as it ever was, then.

And the days go by.

[freelunch]

I'd love to see a map of SW Asia drawn from memory by John McCain.

[Gary Hussein Farber]

Obama's power is teh awesome; he's personally responsible for high gas prices.

Who won't believe that?

(Also added as addendum to my last post at my blog.)

[Eric Martin]

Sorry slarti...

[Gary Farber]

Pay no attention to that gaslight, Slartibartfast. You're just getting old.

I blame the mice.

[Catsy]

While I'm sorry that the Iraqis will have to wait for their elections, I'm just as happy that they won't be taking place during /our/ election season. The last thing we need right now is any more distractions from the candidates and their issues: I want as much sunlight as possible in this campaign, so that maybe for once in my lifetime we can have an honest, informed election.

[Jesurgislac]

Catsy: so that maybe for once in my lifetime we can have an honest, informed election.

What, all the problems with rigged voting and stolen elections that you guys had in 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006 have all been fixed? Every vote cast will be on a paper ballot, safeguards are in place to ensure all ballots cast are counted providing the voter's intent is clear and no ballots are just conveniently losted, and the mainstream media have pledged they won't declare for either one or the other candidate until all the paper ballots have been counted?

News to me. When did this happen, exactly?

As for the Iraqi elections being pushed back, of course. A conquered and occupied country won't be permitted to hold elections on a date inconvenient to their masters.