Pay No Attention to the 400 Pound Gorilla

by publius

Today's postmortem from the Post:

In reality, Clinton lost the nomination long before May 6. The early mistakes have been well documented: a flawed message that focused too much on inevitability and not enough on change; a failure to make Clinton more appealing to Iowa voters; a strategic miscalculation about the importance of caucus states; a spouse, former president Bill Clinton, who intruded as much as he aided his wife; a campaign that was at times dysfunctional.

And, as I explained last month, because of Iraq. As other bloggers have been noting, it is amazing how little the press has focused on the war as a cause for Obama's victory.

Comments

[wonkiewonkie]

Well the press was wrong about the war too so it would male their error more obvious if they mentioned it.

Actually Tweety DID mention her war vote as being a reason for her lose. Then he went on to say they he didn't know by what "serendipity" Obama came to oppose the war.

The man can't concieve of the possibility that a politician might be smart or responsible or ethical.

[Jackmormon]

1. Iraq
2. Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush-Bush [-Clinton-Clinton]

[The Commander Guy]

The War. Yes.

But also her inability just to admit a mistake.

[The Modesto Kid]

Yeah, to me the dynasty thing was of greater weight (as a reason to oppose Clinton) than her war vote. And in a sense it was probably the foremost thing that made me support Obama -- the idea that we can the culture in Washington, get new people with new ideas into power.

[The Modesto Kid]

"can ^change^ the culture"

[Jay C]

Don't worry, publius: the Iraq War will be back in the middle of the campaign before too long -- as soon as the Republicans realize that leveraging nationalistic jingo - and the public's residual support for "victory" - is their sole and only hope of retaining the White House (Congress is probably a lost cause) this election year.

[KCinDC]

Jay, are you sure you don't mean the Iran War?

[g]

"Actually Tweety DID mention her war vote as being a reason for her lose. "

Who?

I'd like to remind people yet again that when they use cute names for people, most people have no idea who they're talking about, and as a result, they end up being intelligible only to an echo chamber.

So, actually, never mind: I don't want to know who "Tweety" is. But if you want me, or anyone not in the echo chamber, to know who you're talking about, you might consider writing the same comment with a name most people know.

Or not.

That sort of incestuousness is near the top of the list of What I Dislike Most About The Blogosphere.

And I blame those who encourage this sort of cutsey nonsense, such as Josh Marshall and Atrios, and whomever else loves inventing Sekrit Codes For The Like-Minded.

[Gary Farber]

"G" was me. And before someone asks, this is one of various reasons I don't read Atrios at all.

(The other being that he pretty well never, last I looked, linked to anything I hadn't already read, so what's the point? But I'm sure he's great for those who don't read the newspapers and blogs and such themselves. It's just that I do.)

Josh Marshall I read, but I groan every time he invents a new dumb name or usage.

[Jordan Lawrence]

Actually, I think Sen. Clinton's vote on the war wasn't her downfall--at least not directly. What it did, I believe, was give someone like Sen. Obama that crucial opening to mount a challenge to Sen. Clinton. Without that vote I doubt Sen. Obama could have made a serious challenge. Everything after that was a matter of who could run the better campaign and make the fewest mistakes. The Iraq War vote was only the beginning but not the fatal flaw for Sen. Clinton's campaign.

[hairshirthedonist]

I'm just glad you didn't write "800 Pound Gorilla," which is in common usage these days, but doesn't actually exist in nature. I'd hate to think someone would go out with the wrong sized dart in their tranquilizer gun and OD a silver back.

[Jake]

I'd just like to point out here, that the other big thing people aren't discussing is that Obama WON this. So much is focused on how she LOST it. Well, a pretty big part of the picture is Obama.

[Brick Oven Bill]

Obama will not get us out of Iraq. He does not have the strength to handle the images. He’s openly talking about it and nobody listens.

‘We have to get out of Iraq more carefully than we went in.’

‘We need to begin withdrawing troops.’

Those words mean nothing. We are already doing both.

‘Cannot guarantee the troops will be out by 2112.’

“There is nothing more frightening than active ignorance.”
-Johann Goethe

[The Modesto Kid]

the Iraq War will be back in the middle of the campaign

My fervent wish is that this story will play a large role in the campaign.

[Model 62]

I'm with Brick Oven bill on this. The Bush Admin, by design and by the stone crushing weight of its incompetence, has gotten us good and stuck in Iraq.

Obama is noted for his political jujitsu, but I don't think he has enough of it to yank our feet out of a 169 thousand square mile quagmire.

[cleek]

I'd just like to point out here, that the other big thing people aren't discussing is that Obama WON this. So much is focused on how she LOST it.

yep.

i realize Hillary's campaign was historic in its own way, and she did come pretty close to winning it. so some reflection is in order. but i'm hoping the media can get their post-mortems out of the way soon. it's all i've heard on NPR for the past couple of days.

[byrningman]

I think she lost because she's just not that good a politician. After having thrown away massive advantages over Obama, for the past couple of months she's just been chugging along on obstinacy, enormous brand-name recognition, the media's morbid curiosity and the willingness to pander to retrograde public sentiment. At no point since the end of February did she manage to defy the predictions.

This race was close, but there was no ambiguity in the result.

[lightning]

So we have had an extra three months or so of Primary. News items about campaign stops. Talking heads talking about inevitibility. Policy speeches. Attack, defense, and counterattack. Talk about racism and sexism.

And news about McCain gets crowded off the front page.

"In politics, 'good publicity' is where they spell your name right."

The Dems have had three extra months of publicity. Counterproductive? Maybe, maybe not.

[Nell]

Inside Sen. Clinton's campaign, the Iraq issue was regarded as a pretty big deal.

Read Jonathan Schwarz's post excerpting a 2007 article about her decision not to apologize for her 2002 vote (and prologed support of the invasion).

[B Choate]

I'm hearing all this stuff about what Hillary did wrong. What about Obama? This is kind of like the loosing coach who focuses on what his team did wrong and doesn't give the victors their due. Hillary ran a fine campaign. She just ran into an emergent force that proved even greater....

[Tony P.]

What Brick Oven Bill fails to understand is the difference between a president who is looking for excuses to stay in Iraq and a president who is looking for excuses to get out.

What he fails to understand is that Obama is not a moral coward like McCain: he is not afraid of being jeered at by either "the terrists" or the wingnuts. No matter how or when we withdraw from Iraq, there will be Islamic jihadists who will claim they drove us out and there will be Christianist "patriots" who will pretend to believe them. Obama shows every sign that he is above that sort of schoolyard mentality. McCain is fixated on our national "honor", Obama seems concerned with our national INTEREST.

The only faction standing in the way of our withdrawal from Iraq is the American Right Wing. It's not the majority of Iraquis. It's not al-Qaida. It's not Iran. Does Brick Oven Bill imagine Obama will be unable to stand up to our homegrown wingnuts, or what?

-- TP

[Curt Adams]

I think her killer mistake was playing the race card. Initially Hillary had more support among blacks than Obama. No doubt his good early performance would have given him a lead, but if the racial tone of her campaign hadn't infuriated blacks, I don't think he would have been getting 85%+ of the black vote, with high turnout, against a woman who has always had good personal relations with blacks and whose husband did more to put African-Americans into positions of authority than any other president. There are still blacks who don't think a black man can win the presidency, too, and I think they also would have voted for her if she hadn't started drumming up racism. But whatever their thoughts about Obama's chances, black people want to vote against playing the race card - it's just been used to do them too much harm.

Had she held 35% of the black vote rather than 15%, she'd certainly have won the popular vote and maybe even the delegate race, caucus goof notwithstanding. Certainly Obama's coronation wouldn't be happening now. And this is ignoring the non-trivial group of anti-racist whites who were infuriated by her rhetoric. That's not so easy to estimate, but it's not negligible.

Bill's initial inflammatory statements may or may not have been deliberate. But in any case, she could have resoundingly rejected racist support like Edwards did, and insisted that America was fully ready to move beyond race and elect a black president. That would have defused most of the furor against her. Ironically, she'd still have gotten the racist vote because she'd still have been a white running against a black and unfortunately racism isn't the kind of thing which many people will get over from any denunciation by Hillary, or anybody else for that matter. But she did what she did, and this is the outcome.

[bobbyp]

Clinton's war authorization vote, and her obvious disdain to pull an Edwards' remorse act, doomed her with the antiwar left...and then comes along a charismatic effing BLACK guy who had the good luck or good sense to oppose the lunacy of the Iraq invasion from the start.

g*d*mned serendipity if you ask me. She never had a chance.

[Chinn Romney]

Clinton's Iraq vote certainly had her in my doghouse as the Election Season got underway. But early on she did a good job explaining it away and almost had me. Then she turned around and did it again with the Iran vote. That was the last straw for this voter.

[Hob]

TP: Yes, I'm pretty sure that Brick Oven Bill does imagine Obama is unable to stand up to people who write hundreds of blog comments about how they're stockpiling automatic weapons and potatoes because the Communist Muslims are coming to kill us. After all, fearsome anti-American blogs such as this one have already been conquered by Bill and his fellow crusaders(*), and surely Obama can't be any tougher than the ObWi crowd.

(* although I'm not sure how one manages to team up with like-minded citizens after warning the entire country that he'll shoot them if they go near his back yard)