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May 06, 2008

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yes, this is great for the party

    * Half of Hillary backers in Indiana wouldn't support Obama in a general elex against McCain, compared to a third of Obama backers who wouldn't back Hillary.

    * It's worse in North Carolina: There, only 45% of Hillary supporters say they'd back Obama against McCain, compared to 59% of Obama backers who'd vote for Hillary.

thanks Hillary, you're the best ! awesome job.

The exit polls in Indiana look closer than 55/45.

I want to know who's getting the Amish vote.

I have some hope that those numbers are soft, and once people realize how many kinds of crazy McCain is...

Interesting: Clinton's lead has been narrowing slowly all evening. I mean, it's still at 8 points, but as noted above, it was at 14 earlier. And I believe several serious Obama strongholds have yet to kick in.

I am not saying I think he'll somehow pull this one off. I don't. Just remarking.

NYT also has a good map, complete with mouseover-activated demographic data.

Which brings up a question that's been gnawing at me for a while:

I've always believed that Obama has the stronger crossover appeal, due to both his more conciliatory rhetoric and his lack of history as a polarizing figure. But in the recent contests his strengths have been predominantly in traditional Democratic territory -- urban areas with diverse and more educated voters -- while Clinton has been picking up poorer, rural, white (ie. stereotypically Republican) votes.

As an effete urban Obama supporter, I'm inclined to believe that Clinton is picking up the low-information, identity-politics-motivated Democratic vote, which is pretty much mutually exclusive of the low-information, identity-politics-motivated Republican vote, and that the real swing voters are more likely to be relatively independent urban Republicans (of whom I know several, all supporting Obama). But that's not much more than a wishful hunch.

Has anyone done a more thorough analysis of this?

The Democratic party is somewhere between the past and the future. This election is, if nothing else, about the soul of the Democratic Party:

Are they about the overwhelmingly incessant partisan fratricide of the past? Or are they about a vision of of the future that includes all people working together? The white working class(who have yet to be convinced) as well as the black working class?

If the Democrats blow this opportunity to take and shape the future (because they are afraid of "losing") they deserve what they get: Nothing. (least of all the future)

Prediction (no I did not need a glass ball to see this): Obama, NC by a large margin. Clinton: IN by a narrow margin.

The politics of divisiveness will continue thru Aug. (It is her only hope)

signed by, a long time union carpenter who is just plain tired.

I'm watching Obama's speech now, he's pulling the stops out. When the audience chants "yes we can" it makes me think he really needs his own militia. I'd dig that.

Indiana is now under a 5% spread (52.4-47.6 9:28PM ET) with 71% reporting.

This will be a close race in Indiana, and that's leaving aside a North Carolina win looking to be well within the double digits.

A quick mouse-over of the counties suggests that Obama will narrow the gap further. Many of the rural Clinton counties seem to have all precincts in, while Indianapolis and Hamilton County, apparently an Indianapolis suburb, still have many precincts out, and are running pro-Obama.

Remember: Gary IN hasn't reported at all...

Lake county, which contains Gary, is the little white bit in the NW corner of the state. Wikipedia:

"As of the census[4] of 2000, there were 484,564 people, 181,633 households, and 126,961 families residing in the county. The population density was 975 people per square mile (376/km²). There were 194,992 housing units at an average density of 392 per square mile (151/km²). The racial makeup of the county was 66.72% White, 25.33% Black or African American, 0.28% Native American, 0.82% Asian, 0.04% Pacific Islander, 4.96% from other races, and 1.85% from two or more races. 12.20% of the population were Hispanic or Latino of any race. 12.2% were of German, 9.6% Polish and 7.1% Irish ancestry according to Census 2000.

According to 2005 Census estimates 58.6% of Lake County's population was non-Hispanic whites, 26.2% African-American, 13.7% Latino and 1.0% Asian.[5] In 2000 there were 181,633 households out of which 32.80% had children under the age of 18 living with them, 48.70% were married couples living together, 16.60% had a female householder with no husband present, and 30.10% were non-families. 25.80% of all households were made up of individuals and 9.60% had someone living alone who was 65 years of age or older. The average household size was 2.64 and the average family size was 3.19.

In the county the population was spread out with 26.80% under the age of 18, 9.30% from 18 to 24, 28.30% from 25 to 44, 22.60% from 45 to 64, and 13.00% who were 65 years of age or older. The median age was 36 years. For every 100 females there were 92.90 males. For every 100 females age 18 and over, there were 89.00 males.

The median income for a household in the county was $41,829, and the median income for a family was $50,131. Males had a median income of $41,986 versus $26,393 for females. The per capita income for the county was $19,639. About 9.70% of families and 12.20% of the population were below the poverty line, including 17.80% of those under age 18 and 8.00% of those age 65 or over."

Remember: Gary IN hasn't reported at all...

How is Gary likely to vote? Blue-collar pro-Clinton? Lake County is 25% black, so pro-Obama?

Geez, hilzoy. I could have saved myself some effort by waiting for you to do the work.

Gary is seen as an Obama stronghold, but probably not a big enough one to overcome.

According to comments on other blogs, the Obama campaign is apparently leaking that they predict losing Indiana by 10,000 votes - i.e., 1% - when all the votes are in.

And, of course, Clinton needed double-digit wins in both states to start making up her pledged delegate gap.

In other election news my sister informs me she has been elected a Town Meeting representative in Brookline, MA.

She ran on the Progressive slate, though I can't imagine what a Brookline conservative slate looks like.

Heh: we live to serve. ;)

Gary itself is (Wikipedia again) almost 85% black, so I'm betting it goes for Obama. The question is the rest of the county. But I would think it would go for Obama. But by what margin? who can say?

The thing is, though: its the second most populous county in the state (Wikipedia yet again), and so far *none* of its precincts are in.

Suppose Clinton gets a narrow win in Indiana.

Can she really justify continuing her campaign? More important, I suppose, will her supporters stay with her?

Gary is such a tease.

"Has anyone done a more thorough analysis of this?"

The exit polls support your hunches. I'd say "mutually inclusive" though.

And kudos for "low-information, identity-politics-motivated". It couldn't have been put more politely.

I always assumed that Clinton would win Indiana/ I thought that was generally assumed to be the probable result.

A NC Obama blowout and a narrow win for Clinton in IN is a vwery good result for Obama. My guess is that Clinton will stay iinn but as a sideshow. She is out of money again, the press will start a deathwatch on her, and the Obama campaign, in conjunction with the DNC is about to launch an all out voter registration drive. I think Obama will go out now against McCain as if CLinton isn't in the race any more.

That's what my crystal ball says!

If there is a just God, HRC will lose IN just for that thoroughly obnoxious opening remark.

Lake County is alive.

28K Obama, 9500 Clinton with 28% of precincts reporting. If that ratio holds Obama will win.

I may stay Catholic after all :-)

I may stay Catholic after all.

Oh ye of little faith.

Little faith, lotta hope :-)

Well, I'm going to bed. Who knows when those people in Lake County will finish counting.

Come on, Lake County counters, it's not that hard!

Going to bed means you don't care ;)

I'm seeing people advocating voting on skin color. Much different than the Maryland Senate election. Odd that.

DaveC,

What are you talking about? Who are these people? Where are there statements? What do they have to do with anyone here? And what on earth does MD have to do with anything at all?

I'm seeing people advocating voting on skin color.

Well, you should stop talking in front of the mirror then.

Get a clue. Read upthread. You will see the expectations and hope for Lake County, . And the comments about Michigan.

DaveC, how about you quote the specific bits of text you're talking about instead? Please quote the specific sentences where multiple people advocate voting on skin color.

DaveC: there's a difference between predicting and advocating.

In other news, with 99% in from IN, Clinton leads by 22,000 votes.

Get a clue. Read upthread. You will see the expectations and hope for Lake County, . And the comments about Michigan.

For someone who's exhorting someone to get a clue, you're rather bereft of one yourself.

Try reading more carefully. And stay away from mirrors.

Absent Rev. Wright's recent escapade , Obama takes Indiana by a narrow margin. Discuss

I think Obama will go out now against McCain as if CLinton isn't in the race any more.

That's pretty much what he did at his speech in NC. Clinton was mentioned, in words meant to soothe her supporters, but the big target was McCain.

Absent Rev. Wright's recent escapade , Obama takes Indiana by a narrow margin. Discuss

also, absent Limbaugh's efforts, Obama wins by a narrow margin.

    On a broader level, among the 17 percent of primary goers who said they would choose Sen. John McCain over Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up, 41 percent of that group came from Clinton's own camp. In essence, roughly seven percent of Clinton support in Indiana (40 percent of 17 percent) said they would defect to the Republican should she end up the nominee.

7% of her votes is roughly 45K. she beat Obama by 18K.

"If there is a just God, HRC will lose IN just for that thoroughly obnoxious opening remark."

What remark, where?

"DaveC,

What are you talking about?"

DNFTT.

Cleek,

The article you cite is a little confusing, but I think your calculation is wrong because the bolded sentence seems wrong. Seven percent of primary voters both (voted for Clinton) and (prefer McCain to Clinton).

That means that about 14% of Clinton voters prefer McCain. That's pretty bizarre. Not sure I believe it.

"That means that about 14% of Clinton voters prefer McCain. That's pretty bizarre. Not sure I believe it."

You think all those people reportedly voting for Clinton because of Rush Limbaugh, etc., aren't?

Do you also doubt that Hilzoy and I and zillions of other Democrats caucused as, or voted as, Republicans for John Anderson in the caucuses and primaries of 1980? Or was that somehow different?

This is funny:

"In what some Democratic Party insiders are calling a particularly ominous sign for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, former president Bill Clinton today became the latest superdelegate to switch from Sen. Clinton to her rival, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill).

Sources close to the former president said that Mr. Clinton had been mulling such a defection for weeks, as early as the night of the Iowa primary, but that he only decided to make his decision public today.

“The American people want change,” Mr. Clinton said at a press conference in New York. “Lord knows I do.”

The former president said that “sometimes, at the end of a race, you have to put an old horse down,” adding, “I’m not speaking metaphorically.”

Mr. Clinton fueled speculation that he was seeking a role in an Obama administration, saying, “I know my way around the Oval Office, and I know how the super-secret double-lock works.”

The former president said he would relish a return to the White House, calling his tenure there “good times.”

For her part, Sen. Clinton said that the defection of her husband would not deter her from staying in the race, adding, “To my knowledge, he’s the only white voter Sen. Obama has.”

The New York senator denied that she was playing the race card, arguing, “Every other member of my family is supporting me, and by the way, they’re white.”"

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