A Look Into the Abyss

by publius

I'm off to caucus, but if you want a sense of how complicated this process is, check out this "very easy" guide (pdf) to running a caucus. Can't imagine how anything could possibly go wrong tonight.

Also, the party apparently created a "results hotline" that will speed up the caucus reporting process. It's still likely that these totals will be tentative given that rolls and signatures will need to be confirmed. For instance, in theory, I could walk in tonight and sign 300 (or 3000) phony people under Obama or Clinton. That stuff will need to be checked - it's not clear how thoroughly vetted the initial numbers will be.

I also predict at least one fist fight at a caucus tonight. Sweet, sweet democracy.

UPDATE: I'm back -- good lord, what a mess. All of this is anecdotal, obviously, but the turnout in my precinct was huge. Crowds were overflowing from an elementary school auditorium out to the street. The site hosted two different precincts, so that in and of itself was messy.

The Obama/Clinton caucus planning simply didn't contemplate numbers this large. The preparations I read about seem designed for smaller more intimate affairs. This was essentially a cattle call - people were herded in to sign their name, list their preference, and then most left. It was not like the Iowa caucuses at all - and we are all at the mercy of the eventual signature counters.

Contrary to what I heard earlier (and what I think the actual rules are), individuals couldn't sign for absent voters (e.g., if spouse is at home). But, there was really nothing stopping you if you wanted to get in another line and sign them in. The poor people at the various tables were overwhelmed and the verification system was virtually non-existent.

Clinton had more people there than I thought. But Obama had a clear majority on the sign-in sheets I saw. Again, there's nothing scientific here. I'm just trying to give you a sense of what it was like. It's quite possibly the worst delegate-selection system ever.

Comments

[Adam]

Look out, fellow Texans, publius is looking for a fight! :)

[gwangung]

I also predict at least one fist fight at a caucus tonight.

So someone brings over their internet chatting style over into real life?

[ty]

For what it's worth, Idaho's caucuses (cauci?) were extremely chaotic. The one I attended had over four times as many attendees as the 2004 caucus. However, everyone was ultimately very civil. The attendees were all Democrats, or at least supporters of a Democratic candidate, so we were in the same boat.

[Adam]

452K - 325K ... Come on, TX. We have to save everyone from Ohio.

[cleek]

Hillary has called in the lawyers. she says they're "locking out" her voters.

please, end this nightmare.

[rachael]

Just back from my caucus in TX as well...very large turnout. It was basically chaos in the high school auditorium. There were two precincts at my location as well, which definitely added to the confusion. Overall, i would say there were a lot more obama supporters there, but clinton had a decent coalition as well.

[Gary Farber]

"There were two precincts at my location as well, which definitely added to the confusion."

At our high school in Colorado (on Super Tuesday), I didn't count exactly, nor will I bother to look it up, but we had approximately 20 precincts or so, with around 20-60 people per precinct.

(Altogther Boulder County attendance was 17,910. Somehow Mike Gravel got 3 delegates to the County convention, incidentally.)

[Dave Pooser]

I just got back from my (Dallas-area) caucus. Two precincts in one elementary school, no real chaos. A lot of people signed and left; we had barely enough Obama folks who stuck around to cover our required delegates and alternates for the district caucus. 92 in my precinct, 113 (I think) in the other; probably about 60% white 40% black. (I saw no Latinos in my precinct and only on in the other, though I didn't see a lot of them.) Both precincts went Obama 60-40; on our side the votes were counted by the chair elected at the caucus with one of each camp's supporters looking over her shoulder double-checking.

For next time: Organize some sort of day care for parents of small children; provide some sort of PA system (heck, a megaphone would have helped); set up different rooms for precincts to caucus in (yes it was a bit noisy); offer some sort of refreshments to make people less eager to leave immediately.

Still, I'm glad I participated, even though I missed They Might Be Giants at House of Blues this evening.

[crimelord]

Wow, Im almost glad I live in Florida.

[Nell]

Be careful what you wish for, crimelord: Florida could easily end up having a caucus to determine delegates.

[Tsam]

Thanks for posting the link to the Texas Democrats web site.

I collated the raw delegate counts. With about 34% of the precincts reported, there is a 55% to 45% lead in delegates for Obama. From reading the Green Papers, it seems that this translates into a 37 to 30 advantage for Obama in the national convention delegates determined from the caucus.

Of course, this is very unofficial but more realistic than any data I have found online elsewhere.

[Tsam]

The best data I can find gives a 20 delegate net for Clinton in Tuesday's events. This 53% of the night's delegates, about 35 short of the 57% mentioned in OW's "Let's Do the Math" thread. Clinton only gained back about 1/3 of that recovery plan.

[KCinDC]

It's now looking like when the delegates from the Texas primary and caucus are combined, Obama came out with a small net gain in delegates for Texas.

Clinton supporters will point to that as an example of an undemocratic outcome, since the spin is that Clinton won the popular vote. But the caucus is also an expression of popular opinion, so things are not so simple.

Clinton's lead in the Texas primary vote is slightly less than 100,000 votes. Results for the caucus are harder to find, but reports are that 1.1 million people participated and the breakdown looks to be about 56% Obama, 44% Clinton. That means approximately 130,000 more people caucused for Obama than for Clinton, so it looks Obama actually won the combined popular vote.