« Meanwhile, On Another Planet... | Main | "No Legal Process" »

January 27, 2008

Comments

Hilzoy,
you really are back!

If any of you here in Maryland feel like writing your Delegates and State Senators about this bill, here's a nifty site (courtesy of Pam's House Blend) that will help you find their contact info.

Already did. Emails anyway. I may follow up with phone calls tomorrow.

Re: #5, check out Beanstalk Library. They're a very good local DC band. Publius, looking at you here.

publius posted about immunity earlier and we discussed it a bit, but I'm always happy to revisit a topic that combines my anger at the abuse of rule-of-law with my loathing of the big telcos. Oh, and let's not forget the incompetence of the Democratic Congressional leadership, or the awesomeness of Chris Dodd. It just has everything!

More than just an endorsement: Have you seen this piece from Al Giordano strongly hinting that if Obama is nominated, Kathleen Sebelius could be his running mate? I don't know much about her apart from what I could glean from Wikipedia, but I have to say that looks like a damn good ticket to me.

The Clintons need an enemy to come off decent. The Republican Party certainly needs an enemy to come off decent. Spot a trend here?

What is it about our institutions that makes the players within them look so bad, generation after generation?

It's too bad they're making a joint appearance to officially announce the endorsement tomorrow-- I think it would've been a smart move to have it happen on Tuesday to take away from any coverage of the Florida primary that Hillary seems to be trying to bring attention to.

No way. Jim Webb for VP. Whoever wins the Dem nomination, I want Jim Webb for VP.

Thanks so much for the link, Hilzoy. We really appreciate the support, particularly when it comes from one of our bloggy favorites.

Ari

Oh man, and I totally forgot about the SOTU, too. Tuesday would've been much better, PR wise.

is this for real ? "Canadian" is slang for the N word ?

hilzoy: "The disclosure also comes the same weekend that the House's highest-ranking Latino, California Rep. Xavier Becerra, also announced that he is backing Obama."

Big deal.

Here in LA Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa of Los Angeles, the most powerful Hispanic politician in the state (and probably the nation) endorsed Hillary. The Spanish vote in L.A. is going to Hillary, big time. So is the Armenian vote (there's a huge Armenian population in Los Angeles). So is the Asian Vote. Ditto the White vote.

In the upcoming super Tuesday elections Hillary leads Obama in 19 out of 22 projected primaries. And here in California, NOBODY pays an iota of attention to what Ted Kennedy says, Or what Caroline Kennedy says (didn't three of Bobby Kennedy's kids already endorse Hillary?) except Black Democrats, but they comprise only about 7% percent of the Democratic primary vote in California.

My own informal survey of California Democratic voters this afternoon (in my local L.A. bar, comprised mostly of Democratic patrons: film union guys, construction workers in the Pipe Union, self employed small business men, the female bartender in her 20s from working class Bakersfield, and a Catholic Japanese contractor from affluent Los Feliz, is that they're all supporting the Clintons (I say Clintons, plural, because a significant number said they want Bill to be involved in the daily operational decisions of governing, because they were happy with the results of his two terms in office, and want more of the same.

Me too.

In the upcoming super Tuesday elections Hillary leads Obama in 19 out of 22 projected primaries. And here in California
Cite, please? The polling in the Super Tuesday states has been far too sparse to support that assertion, which makes it very difficult to take you seriously. Your anecdotes about your local bar don't carry a lot of weight with me, I'm afraid.

The actual polls show Obama closing the gap with Clinton from >20 points at the end of the year to around 10 points now, and there's been no post-SC polling at all. After NH, I'm not putting a lot of stock in those polls either way, but the long-term and short-term momentum is not in Clinton's favor at the moment. We'll see how it plays out, but in the meantime, you don't really have any more of a clue than the rest of us.

** closing the gap in California

Cite, please?

Google Rasmussanreports.com, then search by primary state.

Here's the list:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Utah

Google Rasmussanreports.com, then search by primary state.
Umm -- I assume you mean Rasmussen, and that you do know that they're only one polling outfit, and that their reports are four-day rolling averages, right?

Adam: "Your anecdotes about your local bar don't carry a lot of weight with me, I'm afraid."

And you probably wouldn't carry a lot of weight with my local bar regulars either, Adam... so it's a wash.

And you probably wouldn't carry a lot of weight with my local bar regulars either, Adam... so it's a wash.
Do they know how to spell Rasmussen?

"Umm -- I assume you mean Rasmussen, and that you do know that they're only one polling outfit, and that their reports are four-day rolling averages, right?"

I'll bet you 20 hours of community service (winner picks the non-profit organization) that Hillary wins a majority of the Super Tuesday primaries...

Bet?

As an Obama guy, California really worries me. It's big and full of the kind of people perfectly happy with a traditional Democratic candidate (as illustrated by Jay's anecdote.) But it is one of the states where independents can vote in the Democratic primary and a state where the Republican primary is closed to party members only, so independents (allegedly 20% of the electorate) will only be able to mess with the Democrats. And if Obama's ability to get new people to the polls isn't just a South Carolina thing--well, that's probably his best chance to do some damage in California right now.

In New Jersey he's gotten out at least one person's vote--mine! Independents can't vote here, but if you're unaffiliated you can declare a party affiliation on primary day. So that's what I aims to do.

I'll bet you 20 hours of community service (winner picks the non-profit organization) that Hillary wins a majority of the Super Tuesday primaries...

Bet?

I already work >20 hrs/week for a public-service non-profit -- unpaid -- so no, that bet doesn't do a whole lot for me. How about 20 hours of paid work? :) That I might be able to justify.

Via Ezra, Brian Beutler:

"Kennedy chairs the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions atop both Clinton and Obama. He is, at the same time, the senior Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, which is the very committee that has supposedly served as Clinton's home school for acquiring her widely praised military expertise. He is, in other words, not just the nation's most trusted and revered Democrat, but also, coincidentally, the one who's had the greatest opportunity to see the young candidates at work. And he came away supporting Obama.

All of which indicates to me that--except where centrist, hawkish Democratic senators like Feinstein and Bayh are concerned--Clinton wouldn't have as easy a time working the legislative bureaucracy as she'd have her supporters believe. And Obama--messy desk notwithstanding--might not do such a bad job of it."

That's very interesting. Back in 2004, I recall someone in a position to know about things like this remarking that he didn't know of -- did he say more than a couple? or any? I think any -- Senators who were close to John Kerry, and that this was pretty striking, given that he had spent a fair chunk of time there. The same is obviously not true of HRC, who has, by all accounts, gone out of her way to make friends. Still, I think it's interesting, on these grounds, that Kennedy endorsed Obama. Interesting to see how someone who has observed both at work comes down.

Still, I think it's interesting, on these grounds, that Kennedy endorsed Obama. Interesting to see how someone who has observed both at work comes down.
Do we know that Kennedy endorsed Obama on those grounds? I was assuming that a large part of his rationale was his annoyance at the Clintons -- he and Emanuel were supposedly the ones who called Bill and told him to turn down the rhetoric. I agree that it'd be fascinating if Kennedy thought that Obama was the superior legislator, but I haven't heard anything indicating that's the case.

-- Moreover, part of why Kennedy's endorsement is significant, I think, is that it simply short-circuits the entire argument favoring Clinton based on her supposedly superior experience and influence, because it means that Obama -- demonstrably -- has people in Congress who can take care of that. Kennedy is clearly more experienced and influential in Congress than Obama or Clinton -- the signal that the Democratic establishment is willing to work with Obama seems like all you need on this point.

Adam: no, we don't know that Kennedy endorsed Obama on those grounds, and I should have been clearer about that. What I meant was: it's (interesting on those grounds) (e.g., him having seen both Clinton and Obama in committee) that he endorsed Obama, not that it's interesting that he (endorsed Obama on those grounds.) Should have been clearer, though.

I take it this probably means, at least, that Obama did not strike him as a flaming catastrophe who should not be let within ten miles of the Oval Office, at least if Kennedy has any sense of civic responsibility at all, and I think that whatever one thinks of his views etc., he clearly does. What more it means, I do not know.

hilzoy: I sort of figured that's what you meant, but thought hey, why pass up a perfectly good chance to be pedantic? ;)

Also, I meant to post this in this thread rather than the other one -- both Obama and Clinton will be present and voting 'no' on cloture tomorrow. I consider that very good news.

I think it would've been a smart move to have it happen on Tuesday to take away from any coverage of the Florida primary that Hillary seems to be trying to bring attention to.

I dunno about this. Hillary's campaign has been pretty inept in its handling of the media to this point, and if the Florida primary does become a major story, it's as likely to be because she's de facto campaigning there inspite of a pledge not to, or because of her ham-fisted efforts to strongarm the party into seating the delegates, as because she wins.

Shorter Jay Jerome: my friends and I and a bunch of old polls all say Hillary will win, so Hillary will win.

Aren't you guys supposed to be the party of empiricism?

*sigh*

I'm in Texas. My senators not only favor retroactive immunity, Kay Bailey Hutchenson is apparently for proactive immunity for crimes they might commit in the future.

I dunno about this. Hillary's campaign has been pretty inept in its handling of the media to this point, and if the Florida primary does become a major story, it's as likely to be because she's de facto campaigning there inspite of a pledge not to, or because of her ham-fisted efforts to strongarm the party into seating the delegates, as because she wins.

That's another possibility, but you'll excuse me if I don't have much faith in the media explaining a somewhat nuanced situation properly.

And as for her campaigning in Florida, it's not even de facto anymore. It's amazing that she cry foul about Obama's national ad buy playing in Florida and then turn around and hold events and photo-ops there.

But seriously, where is Dean and the DNC on this? I can't believe he's going to let Clinton completely undermine the party's authority and walk all over the pledge that each of the candidates made.

here's a fine beatdown, in The American Conservative, of Goldberg's silly book.

damn. the list of blistering reviews has grown pretty long. i think if i were Goldberg, by now i'd have succumbed to overwhelming shame and discreetly flung myself into a river.

Cleek, you're assuming Goldberg is capable of feeling shame. He isn't: if he was, he never would have written the damn thing in the first place.

From the other thread, I thought this response from the Obama campaign on Florida was appropriately pithy:

"Regardless of today's outcome, the race quickly shifts to Florida, where hundreds of thousands of Democrats will turn out to vote on Tuesday," Wolfson wrote. "Despite efforts by the Obama campaign to ignore Floridians, their voices will be heard loud and clear across the country, as the last state to vote before Super Tuesday on February 5."

Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton sharply responded to that statement. "If the Clinton campaign's southern strength rests on the outcome in a state where they're the only ones competing, that should give Democrats deep pause."

I think the cravenness of this move is being picked up pretty well by the national media. Pointing out that it's a desperate move as well is excellent, excellent message control.

Now this seems like a bad mistake.

Sen. Barack Obama easily won the African American vote in South Carolina, but to woo California Latinos, where he is running 3-to-1 behind rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, he is taking a giant risk: spotlighting his support for the red-hot issue of granting driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.

It's a huge issue for Latinos, who want them. It's also a huge issue for the general electorate, which most vehemently does not. Obama's stand could come back to haunt him not only in a general election, but with other voters in California, where driver's licenses for illegal immigrants helped undo former Gov. Gray Davis.

Really – I mean two words – Gray Davis.

i think if i were Goldberg, by now i'd have succumbed to overwhelming shame and discreetly flung myself into a river.

Nonsense, cleek. The review concludes with:

In the end, he [Goldberg] succeeded only in recycling 60 years worth of conservative movement bromides.

This was, I think, his objective. Goldberg is just a guy trying to make a career as a conservative writer. To do that he predictably recites these bromides. That makes him a reliable and predictable mouthpiece who is no threat to question his masters.

Ted Kennedy gave a terrific speech, turned Hillary's points against her, and just about converted me. The old lion can still knock it out of the ballpark. He seems much more passionate than the Clintons. I have been horrified by Bill Clinton since NH, realizing how much I loathe the idea of a co-presidency, how I can only tolerate Bill in the White House if he spends most of his time overseas.

Don't minimize Ted's impact. People of my generation realize what a great champion of progressive causes he has been for 46 years. For him to say, Obama will be ready on day one, means something. He quoted Harry Truman telling JFK he needed to be patient and not run for president yet.

As I have mentioned before, I fell in love with JFK at the age of 11 in 1956 and have been intensely political ever since. The whole passing the torch theme was very moving. And of course, it was anti-dynasty; there was no Kennedy to pick up the torch.

In the spirit of random links:

Huckabee challenges Romney over fried chicken. Best. Headline. Ever.

Huckabee actually criticized Romney as a Yank because he didn't eat his fried chicken with the skin on. I SMELL A WEDGE ISSUE!

I walked over to American University today to go to the Kennedy-Obama rally. Unfortunately I got moving late and didn't arrive until 10, by which time the line was long enough that it took me 12 minutes of fast walking to get from the start to the end of it -- so at least 3/4 mile. Lots more people arrived after I did, so I'm sure it went well over a mile.

Someone in line with me got a phone call from a friend of hers who was involved in the organizing who said there'd been 10,000 RSVPs, with space for only 5,000 in the place. So by the time I finally got to the front, even the overflow space was full. After some wandering around I ended up watching MSNBC (and hissing every appearance by Chris Matthews) with a group of about 25 fellow refugees in a media classroom in the basement of the AU library.

But it's encouraging that the turnout was so large -- I hope they're all registered for the Feb 12 DC/MD/VA primary. And the speeches were inspiring. I'm starting to feel hopeful again.

It's interesting to hear that, Redstocking. I just came from the grocery store, where I ran into a white 70-something couple who saw my Obama button and wanted to talk about how inspiring Kennedy's and Obama's speeches had been. I'd figured my ward was likely to be the most Clinton-supporting part of the city on Feb 12, but now I'm less sure (though they'll still probably just go for whoever the Washington Post endorses).

Caroline Kennedy mentioned what a influence her three teenage children had been on her. My four daughters and their husbands are all for Obama; we have never been on different sides before. A woman candidate meant much more to me than to them. But I have lost confidence in Clinton's commitment to fight for what she perceives as unpopular issues. I hate that she used her husband to fight her battles since NH.

There is another issue that I find troubling to admit. I used to believe the media hatred of HIllary would switch to Obama once he got the nomination. Now I am not so sure. The media hatred of Clinton seems deranged--a 16-year-onslaught that cannot be withstood. Cable news reacted to HIllary's loss in SC as if they were dancing around a burning witch. Even if she could win despite such hatred, I doubt she could govern effectively.

Huckabee actually criticized Romney as a Yank because he didn't eat his fried chicken with the skin on.

You know, I think Huckabee has a point. Not the Yankee part, but it really does say something about Romney. I mean, is he rigid, or what?

If you're worried about your diet, order a salad.

Unless you're a vegetarian, you should be able to take a few bites of fried chicken if you're going to be a politician. If Gore or Kerry had taken the skin off, we'd still be hearing about it.

I'm not a member of any organized party, I'm a Democrat.

You know, I think Huckabee has a point. Not the Yankee part, but it really does say something about Romney. I mean, is he rigid, or what?Maybe he was worried that the extra grease would mess with his circuits. Personally, I'm blaming some sort of bug in the software -- seriously, who in the world peels the skin off their fried chicken? I mean... huh?

What's even more absurd about this entire thing is that Huckabee -- because of his weight loss program -- won't even touch fried chicken.

i like my chicken wizz, with.

wiki:


    In 2005 before Super Bowl XXXIX, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney turned down a cheesesteak wager by Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell in the traditional pre-Super Bowl bet between leaders of the states represented in the game. Rendell later told reporters, "He said the cheesesteak had no nutritional value."[14]

so Romney's a health-conscious eater. there are worse things to be.

Knock Jay Jerome all you want, but he's bringing up a point here which will have quite an impact: the degree of racial antipathy between Asian-Americans and Latino communities towards the African American community.

The media is a step slow on this. They talk of Obama's winning Iowa as evidence of breaking a racial barriers. There are other racial barriers in our country that people are much less comfortable talking about.

Knock Jay Jerome all you want, but he's bringing up a point here which will have quite an impact: the degree of racial antipathy between Asian-Americans and Latino communities towards the African American community.

WHICH Asian American communities? Makes a difference...

So the New York chapter of NOW apparently is none too pleased with Teddy's endorsement of Obama(or anyone else's for that matter)....

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/NY_NOW_Betrayal.html

“And now the greatest betrayal! We are repaid with his abandonment! He’s picked the new guy over us. He’s joined the list of progressive white men who can’t or won’t handle the prospect of a woman president who is Hillary Clinton (they will of course say they support a woman president, just not “this” one). ‘They’ are Howard Dean and Jim Dean (Yup! That’s Howard’s brother) who run DFA (that’s the group and list from the Dean campaign that we women helped start and grow). They are Alternet, Progressive Democrats of America, democrats.com, Kucinich lovers and all the other groups that take women’s money, say they’ll do feminist and women’s rights issues one of these days, and conveniently forget to mention women and children when they talk about poverty or human needs or America’s future or whatever.

But, hey, at least she's not trying to make this race a gender issue.

And now the greatest betrayal! We are repaid with his abandonment!...He’s joined the list of progressive white men who can’t or won’t handle the prospect of a woman president who is Hillary Clinton

wow, that's pretty pathetic: if you don't support Hillary, you hate women. it makes NOW sound like a buncha whiny babies.

Just posted on the NOW thingo. I had wanted to earlier, but called them first to make sure it wasn't a joke. (They never got back to me, but apparently someone got back to Politico.)

Sheesh.

Also: it's just NOW-NY state, not NOW as a whole. I linked their response in my post; it's basically what you'd expect, meaning mildly disappointed but nothing whatsoever like the NOW-NY thingo

WHICH Asian American communities? Makes a difference...

I dunno, I'm always getting between Jiang Zemin and Manmohan Singh confused cause they look so much alike...

Ahh, the desire for a zinger overrides the desire to proofread...

"Also: it's just NOW-NY state, not NOW as a whole."

I'd look further into which individual(s), specifically, wrote and released the press release, and what their authorization to speak for the organization was.

Before someone points it out, yes, "I confirmed its authenticity with the president of the organization, Marcia Pappas," but I'd like to know a bit more about the organizational structure, is what I'm saying.

Polls closed, McCain ahead...

The comments to this entry are closed.

Blog powered by Typepad